AFL 2020 - AFL Round 4

[balmainforever]

 

[targett]

 

[targett]

Port and Sydney look the early Value

 

[burge13]

Port and Sydney look the early Value

I said that about North and GWS last week. Pointless me trying to predict anything atm but I like Freo with a goal v GCS

They're not a bad side. Extra game into Hogan, Fyfe and Walters are actually good unlike my mobs midfield yesterday...

Managed to get Port at 2.05 yesterday but don't really like it, just knew the line would move my way

 

[demon_fanatic]

I said that about North and GWS last week. Pointless me trying to predict anything atm but I like Freo with a goal v GCS

They're not a bad side. Extra game into Hogan, Fyfe and Walters are actually good unlike my mobs midfield yesterday...

Managed to get Port at 2.05 yesterday but don't really like it, just knew the line would move my way

Nah gold coast seem real finally I think!! Game into Swallow and Ellis too you can argue.

 

[BuddysBuddy23]

Perryman starting at $1.75(TAB) this week to kick a goal. Was $3.25 last week before being crunched in to $1.80 before the game. Went on to snag 2 and now leads the Coleman outright. Will find it harder going v Pies backline, not much value on offer

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Zac Langdon AGS @ 6.50 (TAB). Let's hope he's not dropped

 

[Sausage Legs]

Zac Langdon AGS @ 6.50 (TAB). Let's hope he's not dropped

madness

 

[ash_1050]

Zac Langdon AGS @ 6.50 (TAB). Let's hope he's not dropped

Into $2 now. Good spot!

 

[one eyedtiger]

Took a bath last week trying to back the "favourites" clearly not the season to be doing it, at least not this early in the piece. Might keep my eyes on some player bets (touches/goals) but I'll be steering clear of head to head markets, for a few weeks at least.

 

[burge13]

Stephenson 2+ @ $3.40
Wallis 2+, looked like he stayed mostly forward. $6
Ainsworth/Matera 2+ @ $5.50/3.75
Whoever McAsey goes to 2+. McStay?
Gunston 2+ 2.80 assuming Tarrant goes to Patton

Throw enough sh*t at a wall and some sticks eventually but thats my thoughts at first glance

 

[mookieb]

Well the good news is this week can't be any worse than last week...

Only WB -2.5 (took same last week) looks very good at this stage. NM looked very flat vs Syd and still fought back to keep it close. Problem with NM is if Cunnington misses and Higgins gets tagged out of the game then who else is there so i'm not rating Syd's win that highly. Think WB is clearly a better team and should kick on from last week now that there atrocious team selection debacles seem over.

If Whitfield, Greene and Kelly play GWS +6.5 will be an option.

If Cunnington doesn't play Hawks look good.

The blowtorch will be on Ade this week so i'm thinking of backing them (prob 1st and 2nd qtr lines) but you'd need a strong resolve to back them after the last 2 weeks.

 

[targett]

 

[iluvparis]

dat Power line move

 

[targett]

Port and Sydney look the early Value

 

[Ohh Ok]

Have been quiet over the first 2 weeks back. Had a few side bets of my own and doing not too bad.

Round 1 in here I went:
6-7
-4.035 units

Will continue on from that record. Got quite busy last season towards the latter half and my tipping really dropped off and got lazy keeping my record. Have been meaning to go back through for a long time and work out what it was. Confident it will be in the positives, but had a large drop off later on.

Looking into round 4 I’ve got a few that I’m quite liking early on.

3u Storm/Lions/Geelong @ $2.17 (neds/lads)
3u Bulldogs +1.5 @ $2 (neds/lads)
2.5u Parker 15+, Florent 15+, Smith 15+, Macrae 20+ @ $1.90 (SB)
2.5u Bailey Smith 20+ @ $1.80 (SB)
0.5u Bailey Smith 25+ @ $3.60 (SB)

I think the market has overreacted a little bit with Sydney. If we flash back to round 1 the Bulldogs closed as favourites against the pies. Yes, they were smashed, but pre season they were touted as one of the big improvers for the comp. Sydney in round 1, just got over the crows by 3 points, and were said to be one of the bottom 4 sixes for the season. Since then Sydney have performed well and sit 2-1, something they’ll be happy with. The dogs on the flip side sit 1-2 so far and have been under the mark. I see their win vs GWS as a turning point in form with the swans now in a let down spot facing their strongest side (on paper) this season. Who would’ve thought we’d be able to grab the dogs +1.5 at $2? Screams huge value to me.

Unfortunately the dogs are without Dunkley for this clash, which has also attributed to a little bit of value since being announced.
Good news for us though, disposal odds haven’t adjusted to Dunkley being out yet. Smith had 22 and 28 in round 1 and 2. Libbas first game back in round 3 saw a decrease in mid time to end on 17. Now with Dunkley out time increases again, take before it moves. I love watching this guy play. So here’s hoping for a big one.

 

[5 Bucks]

Libba, Baz, McLean 15+ @3.30 SB
Libba, Baz 15+ @1.74 SB

 

[NonPhixion]

Don't mind Some Callum Brown friday night.
AGS $2.25
2+ $8.50
3+ $41 SB
Few things, hes playing more as a permanent forward this year and I rekon he has pushed Josh Thomas out of the squad and taken his role. Kicked a goal in every game so far this year, including 1.2 last week. Also really dont trust the Giants backline right now, structurally they seem to defend the key forwards well, so could be a night for collingwoods small/medium sized forwards and I see the value on Brown.

 

[NonPhixion]

Another observation ive made is that Collingwood have reverted back to their 1st quarter form in the 1st half of last year. There was a crazy stat that in the first 11 games last year they won 10 1st quarters.
This year:
32 -6 R1
25 -1 R2
33 - 13 R3

With that in mind im looking at Collingwood qtr time margin 7+ $2.60 & 13+ $4 - TAB
If you are feeling crazy and like to party hard 33+ $76 - SB. This one is obviously a tough ask with shorter quarters but I think the price is just way off looking at this trend.

 

[NYRB]

Early unders/overs lines for this week matches from TAB:

Swans v Bulldogs Under 124.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 124.5 pts
GWS V Collingwood Under 122.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 122.5 pts
Port Adelaide v West Coast Under 128.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 128.5 pts
St.Kilda v Richmond Under 128.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 128.5 pts
Gold Coast v Freo Under 126.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 126.5 pts
Melbourne v Geelong Under 135.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 135.5 pts
Brisbane v Adelaide Under 135.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 135.5 pts
Hawthorn v North Melbourne Under 135.5 pts $1.90 v $1.90 Over 135.5 pts

 

[NYRB]

After what happened to Collingwood in the unders/overs last week, you dont know whether to play on Overs for the Collingwood match or not. A better bet may be to bet on a higher scoring 1st half, and a lower scoring 2nd half. I dont have the stats on me, but SCG is traditionally a lower scoring ground in comparison to the Melbourne stadiums.

 

[NYRB]

TAB odds if you can get all 8 right on the Unders/Overs market pay odds of $169.80- which is decent if you can nail it. You could probably get a bit of a booster with their multiplier, ill keep a close eye on the lines this week.

 

[NYRB]

The unders /overs this season seems to me a bit more of a flip toss, given the 16 minute quarters. Im 2 wins and 4 losses this season.

 

[Ohh Ok]

TAB odds if you can get all 8 right on the Unders/Overs market pay odds of $169.80- which is decent if you can nail it. You could probably get a bit of a booster with their multiplier, ill keep a close eye on the lines this week.

You’d be better off playing a multi like this on bet365 with their accumulator bonus for afl would get a 30% bonus I believe

 

[iluvparis]

The unders /overs this season seems to me a bit more of a flip toss, given the 16 minute quarters. Im 2 wins and 4 losses this season.

Could your previous four posts be all combined into one rather than have a stream of conciousness on unders/overs in 4 consecutive posts?