AFL 2020 - AFL Round 6

[NonPhixion]

both teams have plenty of motivation to win today. A Giants win mathematically could give them top spot by the end of this round but most importantly cement their position in The Top 4. And Port will want to win to keep top spot. Think as the season goes on, the better sides will play out more tighter affairs. Yesterdays' match between the Saints and Freo produced 152 points but I feel the surge in scoring came in the 1st quarter when the Saints thought they could just wallop the Dockers, and the 3rd quarter where Freo had to push the initiative and try to up the ante. I think todays game will be a tad slower scoring than yesterday.


View attachment 910742

Want to have a stab on Points again, like the look of 101-110 @ $7, 111-120 @ 6. If teams go all out helter skelter, over 170.5 paying odds of $23 , over 160.5 paying 9/1 which is too good to refuse.


im also finding a bit of a correlation, albeit small, between winning margins and Total points in a game. (R^2=0.042, or R= 0.2049 correlation coefficient). So it indicates to me that games that are lower scoring, generally are tighter. (Model shown below)

View attachment 910746

I love this. Sharp work

 

[Geeves Train]

Rain forecast to hit at 5:00pm which isn’t great but I think Lambert 30+ ($41) and Lambert 30+ and AGS ($71) is a decent bet. Think he benefits from no Cotchin, Prestia and had 27 last week when playing 80 of 100 minutes. Tab odds above where most others are $13, 30+. Worth a small bet

 

[mouncey2franklin]

interesting that 'finlayson 2g+ & himmelberg 2g+ @15.75 sb' has come off 2/5 games already this year.

I just came here to post the same bet.

The Port board seem convinced their defense is undermanned to take on GWS. I haven't seen enough of them to know.

If the GWS midfield gets on top, the GWS forwards will all have plenty of chances regardless.

Also like 3g+ and 3g+ multi @ 160.

I'm normally not much of a multi punter but the odds here are too good to not put a tiny bet on.

 

[Atavistic]

I got on Richmond/Sydney under 100, but it looks like i should have gone Port/GWS...

Anyway, Rich/Syd U100 points@4

SGM. J Martin/B Dale/Betts AGS@6.75

 

[sneak]

Today 3 leg multi
Rich h2h/under 123.5
Port vs gws under 124.5
Carl vs wb under 114.5
2u @13.26
I normally don’t multi but I think lines may drop in later games

Adding 2u
Rich -5.5/under 123.5
Carl vs wb under 112.5
@6.20

 

[OhhDeledio]

NEED a himmelberg goal. come on son

how does jake lloyd usually go in the wet. might be some value with higgo (3.25) in the fantasy matchup at lads vs lloyd. usually gets his 70 odd mostly playing at half forward but should spend much more time in and around the ball with all the outs. conditions suit him more aswell

 

[mookieb]

I'm not going large, but definitely having a flutter on Richmond at 1.70ish.

Sydney have no Reid or Franklin, and have lost both first choice ruckman in Sinclair and Naismith. Our forward line consists of kids and medium sized players.

Compare that to Richmond's forward line which still has Lynch, Riewoldt, Martin, Rioli, Costagna... despite the Tigers outs I still think they have us covered on pretty much every line.

Swans have 2 (narrow) wins against bottom 4 teams Adelaide and North. The Tigers win against a plucky Demons is enough to suggest to me they are starting to turn it around.

As for hub life, the Gabba holds fond memories for Richmond as they perform excellently there. The ground seems to suit them.

The rain is the only thing that keeps this close imo.

I'm a bit concerned about Rich given a few players have squibbed the hub and I don't think it's good for team mentality, but the Rich team on paper is still far superior to the Swans who have no ruckmen and no key forwards. Highly reliant on Papley and Heeney to kick a bag to win.

 

[mookieb]

0.5u Syd U54.5, 0.5u Rich H2H, 0.5u Rich -3.5 SH line.

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Lloyd over 23.5 disposals $1.80 (365)

 

[iluvparis]

1u StK -11.5.

Bit of a letdown spot, sandwich spot and look ahead game combo.

Apologies for slight after timing.

Deserved punishment from the after timing gods

 

[Robo87]

cant find much i like but,
1u betts ags @1.80 sb
0.5u betts 2g+@5 sb
0.1u betts 3g+ @21sb
1u dale ags @1.83 sb
0.5u dale 2g+ @5.5 sb
0.1u dale 3g+ @21 sb
1u sgm -betts & dale ags, hunter 15+ @4.20 sb
1u vandermeer ags @2 b365
0.3u vandermeer 2g+ @6 be
0.1u vandermeer 3g+ @21 be
(bont has ok odds too if u like him.)

 

[Mudeo]

Carlton - Bulldogs:
Total goals 1st qtr under 3.5 @ 2.11

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Live bet, Sydney -19.5 @ 46 with sportsbet. Small bet.

Can see either team getting on a run, odds much better for Sydney.

The total point line has come into about the low 80s. Lol.

Good work those of you who jumped on <100 before the match. I missed it somehow.

 

[GROTTO]

Live bet, Sydney -19.5 @ 46. Small bet.

Can see either team getting on a run, odds much better for Sydney.

The total point line has come into about the low 80s. Lol.

Good work hose of you who jumped on <100 before the match. I missed it somehow.

Which book is that Sydney line with?

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Which book is that Sydney line with?

SB.

 

[Robo87]

This rich/syd game sounds terrible... i heard them say ''since quarter time there has been 385 disposals for 2 goals..''

 

[happy punter]

Blues over Bulldogs @ 2.55

 

[Del125763]

Didnt watch the Swans v Tigers but by jeez judging from the scoring must have been a dreadful game to watch. Points were about half of why was planned pre-game.

 

[Atavistic]

cant find much i like but,
1u betts ags @1.80 sb
0.5u betts 2g+@5 sb
0.1u betts 3g+ @21sb
1u dale ags @1.83 sb
0.5u dale 2g+ @5.5 sb
0.1u dale 3g+ @21 sb
1u sgm -betts & dale ags, hunter 15+ @4.20 sb
1u vandermeer ags @2 b365
0.3u vandermeer 2g+ @6 be
0.1u vandermeer 3g+ @21 be
(bont has ok odds too if u like him.)

I'll put a little on Dale 2+ and 3+.

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Plenty of rain in QLD and a very scuffed up Metricon Stadium. Dogs haven't conceded 40 points in a month. Blues under 46.5 pts into Dogs 1-39 win is 2.56 at Lads. Will add a few disposals too for some SGMs.

 

[GROTTO]

Didnt watch the Swans v Tigers but by jeez judging from the scoring must have been a dreadful game to watch. Points were about half of why was planned pre-game.

AFL players are seriously stupid. The Tigers players hurrying up play when leading by a "safe" margin was stupid at best.

Cant believe Lynch hurried up a kick with less than 60s on the clock.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I like Jack Martin and to a lesser extent Eddie Betts for goals tonight. Put a little on each AGS/2+/3+.

Other than that, don't see much I like.

<100 total match points was $2 half an hour ago, into $1.90.

Apart from Martin and Betts I don't even feel like watching tbh.

Modern wet weather footy is for the tip.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Plenty of rain in QLD and a very scuffed up Metricon Stadium. Dogs haven't conceded 40 points in a month. Blues under 46.5 pts into Dogs 1-39 win is 2.56 at Lads. Will add a few disposals too for some SGMs.

Taken Blues u40.5 at $2.62BE
Most touches Libba $23 PB

 

[Ohh Ok]

Bout to head to the pub so throwing up a few extras for the last game of the round. Hopefully get some beer money

2.5u Daniel more disposals than Lipinski $1.76 (BE)
2.5u Cripps over 22.5 $1.87 (lads)
2u WB 1-39 $2.05 (PointsBet)
2u Carlton Under 47.5 $1.95 (365)
2u Libba Under 18.5 $1.93 (BE)
1u Macrae -0.5 / over 46.5 (vs docherty) $3.50 (lads)

 

[Del125763]

AFL players are seriously stupid. The Tigers players hurrying up play when leading by a "safe" margin was stupid at best.

Cant believe Lynch hurried up a kick with less than 60s on the clock.

I personally would like to see a bit of adjustment to the rules. (just for this season anyway due to Covid) If you having a set shot, it should be a max of 20 seconds. Too many teams, especially the ones leading late in the match, are taking the full 30 seconds, some teams take even up to 40 seconds when shooting for goal.