2020 Midpricers

[Mofra]

Oh yeah, we all love a good mid-pricer before round 1 starts, because this year "things will be different" (as we said in 2019, 2018, 2017 etc).

So which mid-pricers are people considering?

Jack Stevens, Dev Smith, Angus Brayshaw, Doedee, Dyl Roberton?
Anyone brave enough to pick Sauce at R2 to bolster other lines?

 

[Jedstar]

Would have initially thought Stevens to be a shoe-in, but have read he may be playing forward rather than mid. One to watch in the preseason I suppose.

Stephen Hill is currently sitting in my initial squad. For the price he is at, too much potential to pass up. Same goes for Dyl Roberton.

Dev Smith is a tricky one. Was there any particular reason he dropped so low last year? Makes me very nervous as a selection. Do we think he'll rise again?

Angus Brayshaw dicked me last year after I persisted for so long. Never again.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Oh yeah, we all love a good mid-pricer before round 1 starts, because this year "things will be different" (as we said in 2019, 2018, 2017 etc).

So which mid-pricers are people considering?

Jack Stevens, Dev Smith, Angus Brayshaw, Doedee, Dyl Roberton?
Anyone brave enough to pick Sauce at R2 to bolster other lines?

 

[Mofra]

Stephen Hill is currently sitting in my initial squad. For the price he is at, too much potential to pass up. Same goes for Dyl Roberton.

Yeah there's the issue as well - players might look good in isolation, but if both Hill and Roberton aer line ball to play does it become too big a risk to select both? That's your defence bench set if they both miss which means starting 2-3 rookies on field.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Yeah there's the issue as well - players might look good in isolation, but if both Hill and Roberton aer line ball to play does it become too big a risk to select both? That's your defence bench set if they both miss which means starting 2-3 rookies on field.

I can see your point of view. The cost vs rewards when picking a higher price rookie always has me questioning the cost vs benefits. Not sure if there has been a definitive move.

Lets say the following situation has been presented.

Option 1

Stephen Hill (190k) + Dylan Roberton (260k) = 450k. Lets be conservative and say they average 80-85 ppg = 160-170 each week while they hopefully get up to 400k to be flipped into a premo def.

vs

Option 2

2 Rookies (123k) = 246k. Lets be generous and say they average 60-75ppg = 120-150 each week. Flipped them at 300k and cash in.

Base on the scenario above.

You spend 200k more for an additional 30 ppg each week. Spread it over for like 7-8 rounds that is like 210 overall points. And you either hope that one of those 2 becomes a keeper if not you gotta burn a trade.

or

You save the 200k and invest it in upgrading like a Nic Nat ruck into Gawn. Make like 340k from rookies and flip into a true premo and you are not stuck with mid-pricers.

As to missing games, I would say that Roberton/Hill have similar chance to miss games as to rookies as they are injury prone.

Personally I value max cash generation so I prefer taking 123k rookies, unless there is a glaring lack of rookies than I take like a Stephen Hill.

 

[Mofra]

You spend 200k more for an additional 30 ppg each week. Spread it over for like 7-8 rounds that is like 210 overall points. And you either hope that one of those 2 becomes a keeper if not you gotta burn a trade.

Yep that's the gamble - if you're only after cash generation, a cheap rookie has a far lower hurdle to meet. IT also depends whether you're starting them on field or on the bench.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Devon locked in.
Steven a big maybe.
Hill is in if fit.

Like Doedee but will go without unless there's no good rookies come pick out.

 

[stevebbb]

If they line up in round 1:
Doch
Robbo
Devon

Currently have Stephen Hill at F4 as well, but not keen on him. Would prefer to have Jack Steven, but can't afford him. Don't think he's a great pick, but will need a cheap player somewhere

 

[Sydney Kicker]

I can see your point of view. The cost vs rewards when picking a higher price rookie always has me questioning the cost vs benefits. Not sure if there has been a definitive move.

Lets say the following situation has been presented.

Option 1

Stephen Hill (190k) + Dylan Roberton (260k) = 450k. Lets be conservative and say they average 80-85 ppg = 160-170 each week while they hopefully get up to 400k to be flipped into a premo def.

vs

Option 2

2 Rookies (123k) = 246k. Lets be generous and say they average 60-75ppg = 120-150 each week. Flipped them at 300k and cash in.

Base on the scenario above.

You spend 200k more for an additional 30 ppg each week. Spread it over for like 7-8 rounds that is like 210 overall points. And you either hope that one of those 2 becomes a keeper if not you gotta burn a trade.

or

You save the 200k and invest it in upgrading like a Nic Nat ruck into Gawn. Make like 340k from rookies and flip into a true premo and you are not stuck with mid-pricers.

As to missing games, I would say that Roberton/Hill have similar chance to miss games as to rookies as they are injury prone.

Personally I value max cash generation so I prefer taking 123k rookies, unless there is a glaring lack of rookies than I take like a Stephen Hill.

Is 60-75 ppg a fair assumption for a 123k rookie though? We have had a few good rookies come through in recent years (Doedee, Hore etc) but this may be the exception and not the norm. It also means if you're looking for at least one extra rookie in defence (say 3-2-3 v 4-0-4) you might be scraping the bottom of the barrel to find a 4th rookie with enough upside (js and earning potential). Especially one that's 123k or under. There's a few in the 135-170k bracket but that eats into your savings and earning potential.

I'd also dispute the missing games assumption with Roberton. He's a special case with his heart - it's a bit different to someone with a chronic knee or hammy injury. The doctors would have to be pretty sure to give him the all clear to play so if he's in for R1 I expect he'll be safer than the average rookie as far as missing games is concerned. Agree Hill is a bit more marginal on the injury front but he's only about 70k more than a 123k rookie anyway.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Is 60-75 ppg a fair assumption for a 123k rookie though? We have had a few good rookies come through in recent years (Doedee, Hore etc) but this may be the exception and not the norm. It also means if you're looking for at least one extra rookie in defence (say 3-2-3 v 4-0-4) you might be scraping the bottom of the barrel to find a 4th rookie with enough upside (js and earning potential). Especially one that's 123k or under. There's a few in the 135-170k bracket but that eats into your savings and earning potential.

I'd also dispute the missing games assumption with Roberton. He's a special case with his heart - it's a bit different to someone with a chronic knee or hammy injury. The doctors would have to be pretty sure to give him the all clear to play so if he's in for R1 I expect he'll be safer than the average rookie as far as missing games is concerned. Agree Hill is a bit more marginal on the injury front but he's only about 70k more than a 123k rookie anyway.

1.Using the 123k rookie was a generalisation, generally rookies from 102-150k. In response to you average. Taken from tooserious.net.

X.Duursma average 74. 130k->390k
C.Wilke average 71. 125k->375k
N.Answerth average 62. 117k->360k
C.Rozee average 78. 190k ->423k
J.Clark average 61. 145k->322k
C.Burgess average 49. 123k->273k (Don't pick KPP)
J.Scrimshaw average 65. 150k->315k
M.Hore average 71. 117k->423k

Popular MidPricers
B.Smith average 89. 332k->475k
D.More average 75. 240k->400k

So based on last year output. I would say the estimate I provided above loosely follows my example.

Following your set-up example, Please note I am only using last year as a case study. There are special case from previous years that may have done better. But playing long enough generally getting rookies are more 'safer' option. You usually screw yourself when you trade in and out.

Points Output
3-2-3

3 Premos - Averaged 105 (Top 3 last year average)
2 Mid Pricers - Average 85
1 Rookie on field - Average 60

Weekly def output = 545ish

4-0-4
4 Premo - Average 103 (Top 4 last year average)
2 Rookies on field - average 60

Weekly def output = 532ish

Cash Output
3-2-3

2 Mid Pricers - Total Cash Gen = (300k total) 150k each
3 Rookies - Total Cash Gen = (600k total) 200k each

Total cash gen = 900k

4-0-4
4 Rookies - Total Cash Gen = (800k total) 200k each

Total cash gen = 800k

Difference = 100k. However mid-pricers are generally not keepers hence you will burn additional trade getting rid of them.

Stephen Hill, may be the exception. I will only pick Hill if 1. Fully fit. 2. Lack of Backline Rookies.

Roberton is a weird scenario as you don't know how conservative the medical staff will be.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Why is Devon Smith such a lock? He scores very poorly when played forward and his good scores rely solely on tackles.

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

Backs = Doedee, Roberton, Birchall, Witherden
Mids = Ward, Hannebery, McCluggage, Wines
Rucks = Jacobs, English
Forward = Andrew Brayshaw, Steven, Smith

Im not entertaining the idea of starting Jacobs and English but both could be good value. You'd need big balls to go there though. At the moment ive stacked my forwardline with all 3 of those MPs and im looking at Doedee or Roberton. Im, not really considering Birchall, Hanners, Ward or Wines but i can see them potentially being relevant. McCluggage has been in my team but probably wont make the final cut. He's definitely my pick from those mids though

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Steven - Lock. Much easier to play footy when you aren't stuck in a k-hole 24/7. Keeper.

Hill - too cheap and flexible to pass up if playing. Doesn't have to reach the 90s like he used to. Should still make plenty of coin. Reminds me of the Daniel Wells pick a few years back but not as good.

Roberton - back him to be alright heart-wise, and if for any reason he does have a mishap just accept the loss and trade him asap. Has keeper potential.

 

[pincrusher]

Oh yeah, we all love a good mid-pricer before round 1 starts, because this year "things will be different" (as we said in 2019, 2018, 2017 etc).

So which mid-pricers are people considering?

Jack Stevens, Dev Smith, Angus Brayshaw, Doedee, Dyl Roberton?
Anyone brave enough to pick Sauce at R2 to bolster other lines?

Wrong Brayshaw.

 

[dylan93]

On my watchlist:

DEF: J. Howe, H. Clark, J. Short, D. Roberton
MID: Walsh, Brayshaw (MELB)
FWD: B. Smith (WB), Brayshaw (FREM), J. Steven, D. Smith

RUC is simply Grundy/Gawn/Comben set and forget.

 

[Sydney Kicker]

1.Using the 123k rookie was a generalisation, generally rookies from 102-150k. In response to you average. Taken from tooserious.net.

X.Duursma average 74. 130k->390k
C.Wilke average 71. 125k->375k
N.Answerth average 62. 117k->360k
C.Rozee average 78. 190k ->423k
J.Clark average 61. 145k->322k
C.Burgess average 49. 123k->273k (Don't pick KPP)
J.Scrimshaw average 65. 150k->315k
M.Hore average 71. 117k->423k

Popular MidPricers
B.Smith average 89. 332k->475k
D.More average 75. 240k->400k

So based on last year output. I would say the estimate I provided above loosely follows my example.

Following your set-up example, Please note I am only using last year as a case study. There are special case from previous years that may have done better. But playing long enough generally getting rookies are more 'safer' option. You usually screw yourself when you trade in and out.

Points Output
3-2-3

3 Premos - Averaged 105 (Top 3 last year average)
2 Mid Pricers - Average 85
1 Rookie on field - Average 60

Weekly def output = 545ish

4-0-4
4 Premo - Average 103 (Top 4 last year average)
2 Rookies on field - average 60

Weekly def output = 532ish

Cash Output
3-2-3

2 Mid Pricers - Total Cash Gen = (300k total) 150k each
3 Rookies - Total Cash Gen = (600k total) 200k each

Total cash gen = 900k

4-0-4
4 Rookies - Total Cash Gen = (800k total) 200k each

Total cash gen = 800k

Difference = 100k. However mid-pricers are generally not keepers hence you will burn additional trade getting rid of them.

Stephen Hill, may be the exception. I will only pick Hill if 1. Fully fit. 2. Lack of Backline Rookies.

Roberton is a weird scenario as you don't know how conservative the medical staff will be.

That's a fair comeback.

Unsurprisingly I guess the conclusion is that assuming the rookie options aren't too bad (i.e similar to the examples you have cited), I think you really have to decide if Roberton is likely to be good enough to be a keeper if you take him. If he is it's a clear win. If he isn't you would likely be better with a rookie. How much better of course depends on the exact relative performances of Roberton and the Rookie.

I still think with Roberton that the staff will be super conservative and only play him if they are 100% sure his heart is ok. Saints and AFL aren't stupid. There are too many examples of sportsmen who have died from heart conditions for them to take chances with someone who was (thankfully) identified with a problem before it could do permanent or terminal damage.

 

[buttox]

for me its
def doch roberton doedee hill ahern
mid walsh hanners
forward steven lunchmeat wingard simpkin t thomas
bolded are in my team currently.

 

[TheMcManusNose]

Hill isn't really a mid pricer. He's rookie priced. I really don't see how you can pass him up if fit round 1.

I much prefer the cheaper guys in D.Smith and Doedee. I think there's a reasonable chance either of those guys can become a keeper, and if they don't at least they're going to make you some money. When you start getting to the 400k and above end of things then the player is already priced at 80s. If they're not a keeper then they're not going to make you much cash either and it is a wasted trade.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Why is Devon Smith such a lock? He scores very poorly when played forward and his good scores rely solely on tackles.

I'm just working on his one season at the Bombers and ignoring GWS

He is priced at something like 60 points and is easily capable of 90+. Don't think you will find many other mid-pricers with that much potential gain with the added probability he will be a top 6 forward.

he has been in full training since pre-season began, so unless he has a setback he will just about be my first picked.

worst case - he is a stepping stone to a premium and I burn a trade
average case - he becomes my F7/M9
best case - he is a top 6 forward.

I don't see too much risk.

 

[mochacinolatte]

That's a fair comeback.

Unsurprisingly I guess the conclusion is that assuming the rookie options aren't too bad (i.e similar to the examples you have cited), I think you really have to decide if Roberton is likely to be good enough to be a keeper if you take him. If he is it's a clear win. If he isn't you would likely be better with a rookie. How much better of course depends on the exact relative performances of Roberton and the Rookie.

I still think with Roberton that the staff will be super conservative and only play him if they are 100% sure his heart is ok. Saints and AFL aren't stupid. There are too many examples of sportsmen who have died from heart conditions for them to take chances with someone who was (thankfully) identified with a problem before it could do permanent or terminal damage.

It is always an interesting discussion non the less, who knows Roberton might be in my side if he performs well in JLT.

 

[Milanista28]

Why is Devon Smith such a lock? He scores very poorly when played forward and his good scores rely solely on tackles.

He's 100% fit hasn't missed a session and his own words "fittest he's been since 2016"

He also plays 70-80% of the game as a mid for us.

 

[Northernsoul74]

He's 100% fit hasn't missed a session and his own words "fittest he's been since 2016"

He also plays 70-80% of the game as a mid for us.

I hope so but I can see him playing forward. Wait and see.

 

[Andrew Birch]

I run with 6-8 mid-pricers most years. This year is no different, there is plenty of value around if you're looking for it. Not saying the list below are all Rd1 options, but certainly worth considering if their pre-season and or early season form warrant it.

*Currently in my side
*Watchlist

N Naitanui (457k)
R Gray
Angus Brayshaw
H Andrews
T English
C Mills
S Petrevski-Seton
K Simpson
S Menegola
P Lipinski
S Docherty
J Westhoff
S Stack
J Howe
H Clark
C Rozee
D Hannebery
Bailey Smith
C Wingard
C Blakely
W Milera
A Witherden
Tom Lynch (Rich)
T McDonald
J Simpkin
Andrew Brayshaw
J Riewoldt
O Florent
J Steven
J Webster
LDU
P Ahern
Devon Smith
JJ Kennedy
Z Fisher
W Setterfield
J Hogan
G Birchall
T Doedee
D Roberton
B Sier (242k)

 

[La Dispute]

Players have to be smashing it over pre-season to be worth selecting IMO. Last year Sheed was an obvious one.

As I have said in other threads, I like the number of potential break-out mids listed as forwards this year. There will be at least a couple who become premiums and are worth taking, pending PS form.

You can usually find good value mid-priced defenders, and I don’t rate taking many premos unless they are traditionally very strong scorers with say a 110+ avg.

Also agree 200k isn’t mid priced; that’s just a premo rookie you’d expect to score a little more strongly and you can cash in earlier. Basically the Andrew McGraths of the SC world.

 

[JDWCE]

Short had a poor year last year after that elbow incident. 2018 was fairly decent. Coming into his fifth year now, can see a slight uptick or at least getting back to 2018 numbers. Quite underpriced.

Also liking Ahern in that back role he played towards the end of the year.

I'll likely take 1 of them