Analysis 2020 Onwards - Where to from here?

[jathanas]

Thinking about our club and the way forward this morning. I have enough faith in our list that there is enough quality to see us competitive over the next 2 to 3 seasons if we are decisive enough to pivot in a few key areas:

- Strategy: We have to change the way we move the ball. What has been put on display is clearly not up to scratch in 2020 AFL. If I never see another sideways handball to a player under pressure, it will be too soon. We must find a way to take advantage of Grundy's dominance and learn to attack. We have regressed, it's plain to see. I'd use the remaining rounds to plant the seeds for the way forward. Bucks needs to accept the writing on the wall and start coaching for next year, the same way T. Shaw did before Malthouse took over.

- List management/Recruitment: we need a KPF to help Checkers and Kelly. There is also a void the size of the grand canyon that needs to be filled when Pendles goes. Some of the older players need a tap on the shoulder based on yesterday's showing. Looking at our recruiting in general we seem to have stocked up on a certain type of player at the expense of others.

- Team morale: So much of the game takes place between the ears. Our confidence has taken a beating. Getting hammered by WC was the start and yesterday was the icing on the cake. Good teams don't lose like that multiple times in a season. A fresh message and a new plan might restore faith in the mission. Who knows? The players might start to look like they're having fun again.

- Injuries: Some fn luck please! Howe and JDG are huge outs for any side and their long term injuries this year were just misfortune.

I'd love to read what other posters think of our predicament and the way forward but please refrain from spewing bile about the club, coaches, or players. We're all a little upset about where we're at this season but keep it classy legends.

 

[No SPIN]

Agree - and having spent sometime contrasting our 2018 performances to 2020, I’ve come to the conclusion that the GF result was incorrecty assessed.
The coaching group probably concluded that the game plan was too taxing, causing an eventual fade out that cost us the game.
When it fact, had there not been a poor umpiring decision, we would have won the flag and the game plan vindicated.

While it’s clear that in 2020 game plan flexibility to play fast and slow is needed, as Geel have proven in wins over fast teams like BNE, Saints and PA, this has been a pre-season modification, while retaining the basics.

That is exactly what we needed to do post 2018 - maintain the fast game and develop the slow game as Plan B, rather than make the slow game Plan A.

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

The very nature of Collingwood's brand, only an experienced coach with a thick skin and experience would suit moving forward. I can't see a young and upcoming coach as it was already tried with Buckley and it took him years to find his feet.

IMO Clarkson would be a good fit and surely would be open to the idea of a change of scenery. The Pies should concede its over from here with the list profile imbalance and find out which players deserve contracts koving forward.

Rebuild time.

 

[KillerMagpies]

Clean out.
Rebuild.
Bucks has had 9 years. That’s enough.
Clarko time. If he doesn’t have the hunger; Hodge or Mitchell.

 

[Captain Embubry]

Game Plan: We're definitely missing the spark we had in 2018. Our ball movement, pressure and intensity around the contest was elite. Not sure why we persist on playing this slow handballing brand of footy right now, but we are setting ourselves up for failure with it. We've seen how easily we can score when we take the game on, move the ball quickly and surge forward in numbers. Too often we lack pressure around the contest and are too slow to react when teams switch out of our forward half, leaving our defence horrendously outnumbered and looking stupid.

Whether its Bucks, or someone new, we need some pretty significant changes to our game plan. Unfortunately for Bucks i think thats more likely to come from a fresh face at the helm. Would absolutely love us to throw some cash at Clarko.

List: Our biggest need right now is a KPF. I'd even go as far to say we need 2 KPFs to play alongside Mihoceck. We have Kelly coming through though so lets trust his development and stick with 1. Im torn as to what we need, our current game plan requires a pack crashing, hulking KPF to either take the big contested marks when we pump it in blindly the way we do. But the game plan i want us to play, which is more like our 2018 style, and WCEs current style, requires a hit up forward, in which case i would say we need to go all in on Ben Brown.

We need to stack our wings and half forwards with quick skillful types to help out our leading forwards and create smarter inside 50s. Im thinking Daicos and Quaynor wing, and Sidebottom more time HFF.

We also need to start looking at some midfield options, blokes that can win the ball, run two ways, and use the ball well in traffic/on the burst.

Lastly, we are carrying a lot of deadwood players we need to consider moving on.

Injury/Off Field Drama: Please! For the love of god can we have a couple of seasons where we dont lose key players to injury or ridiculous off field suspensions!!!

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Thinking about our club and the way forward this morning. I have enough faith in our list that there is enough quality to see us competitive over the next 2 to 3 seasons if we are decisive enough to pivot in a few key areas:

- Strategy: We have to change the way we move the ball. What has been put on display is clearly not up to scratch in 2020 AFL. If I never see another sideways handball to a player under pressure, it will be too soon. We must find a way to take advantage of Grundy's dominance and learn to attack. We have regressed, it's plain to see. I'd use the remaining rounds to plant the seeds for the way forward. Bucks needs to accept the writing on the wall and start coaching for next year, the same way T. Shaw did before Malthouse took over.

- List management/Recruitment: we need a KPF to help Checkers and Kelly. There is also a void the size of the grand canyon that needs to be filled when Pendles goes. Some of the older players need a tap on the shoulder based on yesterday's showing. Looking at our recruiting in general we seem to have stocked up on a certain type of player at the expense of others.

- Team morale: So much of the game takes place between the ears. Our confidence has taken a beating. Getting hammered by WC was the start and yesterday was the icing on the cake. Good teams don't lose like that multiple times in a season. A fresh message and a new plan might restore faith in the mission. Who knows? The players might start to look like they're having fun again.

- Injuries: Some fn luck please! Howe and JDG are huge outs for any side and their long term injuries this year were just misfortune.

I'd love to read what other posters think of our predicament and the way forward but please refrain from spewing bile about the club, coaches, or players. We're all a little upset about where we're at this season but keep it classy legends.

We need to be smart and aggressive in our trading. We require a KPF immediately, we won't be getting a Cameron or Naughton, so we need to have a moneyball option to come in and immediately fill that role.
Who could we look at to bring in, this trade period? Would we consider a Casboult, Brown or a Lewis from the Hawks?
We also require a couple of run and carry players, with above average disposal capabilities. Would we look at a Issac Smith and Jared Polec? Both left footers, and lovely kicks of the footy.

 

[TradeDraft]

With how bad our Injury list is and how bad we are playing.

Play the Kids as rather lose playing kids instead of playing Old VFL Players.

Just hope we get High 1st Round Draft Pick as Possible

 

[Kick It 2 Me]

Removing the deadwood shouldn't stop at the playing list.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Just hope we get High 1st Round Draft Pick as Possible

It probably won’t be that early, but we need Reef McIness to be our second pick at the table, with our first being an athletic key tall, or a burst midfielder. Keep in mind our first next year is 99% likely to go on an average-paced mid (albeit with exceptional skills).

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

Removing the deadwood shouldn't stop at the playing list.

Well in all honesty, Reid, Mayne, Varcoe Dunn, Broomhead, Scharenberg, all great servants of the club and loved their contributions, but l expect all wouldn't be on the list for 2021.
If we want to be even more aggressive, make it known, behind closed doors, Treloar, Stephenson, Phillips, Elliott and Sidebottom are all on the table, and see what are the options offered to us in terms of any possible trade.
In terms of the coach, l wouldn't be offering Bucks a new contract until well into the 2021 season. Depending on how we are travelling, and we are winning games sitting in the 8, then offer a contract 2 years max, with certain targets to be met to initiate the second term. If things are grim, and the form line of this year, continues next year, then l would open up the option of bringing in someone else.

 

[jathanas]

Agree - and having spent sometime contrasting our 2018 performances to 2020, I’ve come to the conclusion that the GF result was incorrecty assessed.
The coaching group probably concluded that the game plan was too taxing, causing an eventual fade out that cost us the game.
When it fact, had there not been a poor umpiring decision, we would have won the flag and the game plan vindicated.

While it’s clear that in 2020 game plan flexibility to play fast and slow is needed, as Geel have proven in wins over fast teams like BNE, Saints and PA, this has been a pre-season modification, while retaining the basics.

That is exactly what we needed to do post 2018 - maintain the fast game and develop the slow game as Plan B, rather than make the slow game Plan A.

Yep in modifying the 2018 plan we seem to have thrown away the baby with the bathwater and with it the ability to convert.

 

[Roverjg]

Thinking about our club and the way forward this morning. I have enough faith in our list that there is enough quality to see us competitive over the next 2 to 3 seasons if we are decisive enough to pivot in a few key areas:

- Strategy: We have to change the way we move the ball. What has been put on display is clearly not up to scratch in 2020 AFL. If I never see another sideways handball to a player under pressure, it will be too soon. We must find a way to take advantage of Grundy's dominance and learn to attack. We have regressed, it's plain to see. I'd use the remaining rounds to plant the seeds for the way forward. Bucks needs to accept the writing on the wall and start coaching for next year, the same way T. Shaw did before Malthouse took over.

- List management/Recruitment: we need a KPF to help Checkers and Kelly. There is also a void the size of the grand canyon that needs to be filled when Pendles goes. Some of the older players need a tap on the shoulder based on yesterday's showing. Looking at our recruiting in general we seem to have stocked up on a certain type of player at the expense of others.

- Team morale: So much of the game takes place between the ears. Our confidence has taken a beating. Getting hammered by WC was the start and yesterday was the icing on the cake. Good teams don't lose like that multiple times in a season. A fresh message and a new plan might restore faith in the mission. Who knows? The players might start to look like they're having fun again.

- Injuries: Some fn luck please! Howe and JDG are huge outs for any side and their long term injuries this year were just misfortune.

I'd love to read what other posters think of our predicament and the way forward but please refrain from spewing bile about the club, coaches, or players. We're all a little upset about where we're at this season but keep it classy legends.

Buckley had huge self-belief as a player. If he was having a bad day it was his belief things would change with him if he continued to do what he always did. It worked for him as a player. It is not working for him as a coach. Tactically he is poor. What do Harvey and Sanderson offer him? Every team knows our predictable game plan and coach accordingly.

Our list management is poor. We have no KPF. Checkers is not a KPF but he is expected to be one. He averages 1.5 goals per game. In his career he has kicked 10 goals+ against one team (WCE) but he has played them 6 times. He matches up well against Richmond because their 2 main defenders have been used to block out Cox. He has failed to kick a goal against Geelong. Will Kelly been available for minimal games in two years because of injury. He was often injured during his junior career. He missed nearly all of last year with injury and he will miss this year following an impact injury. He has been unlucky.

De Goey is another. How long does one live on potential?. Is one worth $1m when he all he has done has offered us glimpses of potential over 6 years. On average over those six years he has missed 6 games a year through injury. Does our current ball movement suit his game?

Cox is clearly out of favour.

Our forward line has shown that it does not work with all of Elliott, De Goey and Stephenson in it.

We have youngsters such as Lynch and Murphy who cannot get a game despite their good scratch match form and we have a multitude of players who can't get dropped despite their chronic poor form. Why can't these players get a game? If they are not good enough we need to move them on.

Our core players have been consistently poor this year (Phillips, Mayne, Varcoe, Thomas, Stephenson, WHE, Elliott, Brown, Scharenberg and Roughead).

Our midfielders with the exception of Pendles have poor disposal skills. Our midfield is significantly over-rated and are a victim of their own publicity. The recruitment of Beams was considered a shocker by many at the time of his recruitment.

The majority of playing list appears to have regressed this year with the exception of Maynard, Moore and Daicos. Grundy and Pendles are set at such a high benchmark because of their consistent performances, however neither have hit the heights of 2018/19.

Our playing list includes the constantly injured. Reid has played 16 of the past 62 games. Broomhead has played 37 of 150; Dunn 32 of 83; Greenwood 78 of 128; Varcoe 88 of 138 and Langdon 89 of 149. That does not include De Goey, Sier or Kelly.

Sporting clubs like any business only evolve and improve when new people and new ideas are constantly introduced. Eddy has been President for over 20 years. Buckley has been senior coach for 9 years, Harvey has been his off-sider for all of that time. Harvey is our midfield coach. Sanderson has been at the Pies since 2016 as our forward and ball movement coach. No new ideas there....

I would be happy to trade any of Phillips, Treloar, WHE, Stephenson, Cox, Brown, Sier, Langdon or Wills if it would improve our playing list and deficiencies.

I would delist Varcoe, Broomhead, Thomas (if trade could not be done), Reid, Dunn, Scharenberg. Mayne is saved by virtue of signing a contract extension.

 

[jathanas]

The very nature of Collingwood's brand, only an experienced coach with a thick skin and experience would suit moving forward. I can't see a young and upcoming coach as it was already tried with Buckley and it took him years to find his feet.

IMO Clarkson would be a good fit and surely would be open to the idea of a change of scenery. The Pies should concede its over from here with the list profile imbalance and find out which players deserve contracts koving forward.

Rebuild time.

If we could appoint Longmuir now, would you take him? I would have him over Clarko but that's a personal view. I can see why Clarko would appeal.

 

[jathanas]

Game Plan: We're definitely missing the spark we had in 2018. Our ball movement, pressure and intensity around the contest was elite. Not sure why we persist on playing this slow handballing brand of footy right now, but we are setting ourselves up for failure with it. We've seen how easily we can score when we take the game on, move the ball quickly and surge forward in numbers. Too often we lack pressure around the contest and are too slow to react when teams switch out of our forward half, leaving our defence horrendously outnumbered and looking stupid.

Whether its Bucks, or someone new, we need some pretty significant changes to our game plan. Unfortunately for Bucks i think thats more likely to come from a fresh face at the helm. Would absolutely love us to throw some cash at Clarko.

List: Our biggest need right now is a KPF. I'd even go as far to say we need 2 KPFs to play alongside Mihoceck. We have Kelly coming through though so lets trust his development and stick with 1. Im torn as to what we need, our current game plan requires a pack crashing, hulking KPF to either take the big contested marks when we pump it in blindly the way we do. But the game plan i want us to play, which is more like our 2018 style, and WCEs current style, requires a hit up forward, in which case i would say we need to go all in on Ben Brown.

We need to stack our wings and half forwards with quick skillful types to help out our leading forwards and create smarter inside 50s. Im thinking Daicos and Quaynor wing, and Sidebottom more time HFF.

We also need to start looking at some midfield options, blokes that can win the ball, run two ways, and use the ball well in traffic/on the burst.

Lastly, we are carrying a lot of deadwood players we need to consider moving on.

Injury/Off Field Drama: Please! For the love of god can we have a couple of seasons where we dont lose key players to injury or ridiculous off field suspensions!!!

Great post.

On the coaching front I'd prefer we back in someone with fresh ideas and hunger; preferably an outsider. Hindsight is 20/20 but I'd love Longmuir at the helm.

 

[Stripes B and W]

I was concerned going into the year we were already multiple list spots short, some due to carryover injury, some due to just crazy list management.
I felt Dunn, Beams, Reid, Langdon, Greenwood, Broomhead, S'Berg, were unlikely to play more than a small handful of games at best and contribute even less, yet all were retained. Given a normal amount out due to injuries meant we were always likely to have fewer deckchairs than we ought to have.
The other glaringly obvious weakness we have are kicking skills. We must prioritise kicking for any player brought to the club. We dont have too many average kicks in the side, we have too many extremely poor kicks and precious few damaging kick.

 

[AndrewShawble]

We won’t get a fresh start until Eddie goes.

We are probably 5 years off and a few consecutive bottom 4 finishes until we get some momentum behind that.

Until then it’s just stop gaps.

 

[jathanas]

Bucks is head-strong and you want that in a leader as it can be a steadying influence in uncertain times. This season we have seen that he isn't as adaptive as he could be. The inability of the coaching department to "pivot" has hurt the side.

I agree with the rest of your post except for one thing, I wouldn't trade Langdon if I knew he could play next year. He's huge for us.

You've identified that we need fresh ideas and I think we have stagnated on that front. We need a new message.

Buckley had huge self-belief as a player. If he was having a bad day it was his belief things would change with him if he continued to do what he always did. It worked for him as a player. It is not working for him as a coach. Tactically he is poor. What do Harvey and Sanderson offer him? Every team knows our predictable game plan and coach accordingly.

Our list management is poor. We have no KPF. Checkers is not a KPF but he is expected to be one. He averages 1.5 goals per game. In his career he has kicked 10 goals+ against one team (WCE) but he has played them 6 times. He matches up well against Richmond because their 2 main defenders have been used to block out Cox. He has failed to kick a goal against Geelong. Will Kelly been available for minimal games in two years because of injury. He was often injured during his junior career. He missed nearly all of last year with injury and he will miss this year following an impact injury. He has been unlucky.

De Goey is another. How long does one live on potential?. Is one worth $1m when he all he has done has offered us glimpses of potential over 6 years. On average over those six years he has missed 6 games a year through injury. Does our current ball movement suit his game?

Cox is clearly out of favour.

Our forward line has shown that it does not work with all of Elliott, De Goey and Stephenson in it.

We have youngsters such as Lynch and Murphy who cannot get a game despite their good scratch match form and we have a multitude of players who can't get dropped despite their chronic poor form. Why can't these players get a game? If they are not good enough we need to move them on.

Our core players have been consistently poor this year (Phillips, Mayne, Varcoe, Thomas, Stephenson, WHE, Elliott, Brown, Scharenberg and Roughead).

Our midfielders with the exception of Pendles have poor disposal skills. Our midfield is significantly over-rated and are a victim of their own publicity. The recruitment of Beams was considered a shocker by many at the time of his recruitment.

The majority of playing list appears to have regressed this year with the exception of Maynard, Moore and Daicos. Grundy and Pendles are set at such a high benchmark because of their consistent performances, however neither have hit the heights of 2018/19.

Our playing list includes the constantly injured. Reid has played 16 of the past 62 games. Broomhead has played 37 of 150; Dunn 32 of 83; Greenwood 78 of 128; Varcoe 88 of 138 and Langdon 89 of 149. That does not include De Goey, Sier or Kelly.

Sporting clubs like any business only evolve and improve when new people and new ideas are constantly introduced. Eddy has been President for over 20 years. Buckley has been senior coach for 9 years, Harvey has been his off-sider for all of that time. Harvey is our midfield coach. Sanderson has been at the Pies since 2016 as our forward and ball movement coach. No new ideas there....

I would be happy to trade any of Phillips, Treloar, WHE, Stephenson, Cox, Brown, Sier, Langdon or Wills if it would improve our playing list and deficiencies.

I would delist Varcoe, Broomhead, Thomas (if trade could not be done), Reid, Dunn, Scharenberg. Mayne is saved by virtue of signing a contract extension.

 

[manicpie]

This might sound bad but I would like to finish closer to the bottom this year as there are 3 outstanding talls in the top 10 and really good, fast midfielders. I think we could have 2 picks before we take Reef and that would be a massive boost to have 3 quality players coming into the club at the same time

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

If we could appoint Longmuir now, would you take him? I would have him over Clarko but that's a personal view. I can see why Clarko would appeal.

At Fremantle, there is far less pressure to run that club. Longmuir fits, absolutely.

It takes a different set of attributes to lead Collingwood.

Pies are held to account far higher than any other club, the coach would need a thick skin ala Malthouse, Matthews, Clarkson etc..to withstand the media pummeling and pressure Pies cop each season.

 

[Roverjg]

We need to be smart and aggressive in our trading. We require a KPF immediately, we won't be getting a Cameron or Naughton, so we need to have a moneyball option to come in and immediately fill that role.
Who could we look at to bring in, this trade period? Would we consider a Casboult, Brown or a Lewis from the Hawks?
We also require a couple of run and carry players, with above average disposal capabilities. Would we look at a Issac Smith and Jared Polec? Both left footers, and lovely kicks of the footy.

I agree that we need to be smart and aggressive in our trading. The problem is I am not sure Collingwood can be. Our trading has always been conservative. We have not been prepared to take chances on signing major recruits.

We had Bernie Quinlan delivered but we baulked at the last minute. He went to Fitzroy and we know what he achieved there.
We had Paul Roos delivered but we baulked there. He stayed at Fitzroy before moving to the Swans.
We had Plugger delivered at the end of 1991, but the Board considered him too high risk and disruptive. He left the Saints 2 years later. But after the Boards decision he went on to kick another 705 goals.

We were never in the running for Lynch. The BF forum assumed Lynch was coming to Collingwood because he barracked for them as a child. But Richmond had been working on him since the end of 2016.

Instead we go for the likes of Quentin Lynch and Clinton Young, Jordan Russell, we got Treloar (in hindsight he made a bad decision. He could have been a double premiership player), Chris Mayne, Daniel Wells and Levi Greenwood. Players that we have all paid a premium for via Free Agency for over inflated salaries to get them to leave their clubs that their own clubs would not consider. They obviously knew something about their players. In the case of Beams he has hampered us with both draft picks and an inflated salary.

I think it is time for change. Time for Anderson or Kelly to step up and clear out the dead wood starting with the President, coaches, recruitment and fitness staff

 

[Roverjg]

At Fremantle, there is far less pressure to run that club. Longmuir fits, absolutely.

It takes a different set of attributes to lead Collingwood.

Pies are held to account far higher than any other club, the coach would need a thick skin ala Malthouse, Matthews, Clarkson etc..to withstand the media pummeling and pressure Pies cop each season.

We are commented on more as a club. We are not held to higher account. If that was so Eddy would no longer be President and Bucks likely... no longer coach.

What we have is a President who is living his childhood fantasy as Emperor of Collingwood and he has his manhood crush as coach. Nothing is likely to change whilst Ed is Presdient

 

[Nuffsaid]

I agree with the kpf needs, but I feel that the skill sets we have targeted over many years have created a list that is devoid of flare and creativity. Maybe it’s a product of the coaching brand which prefers grunt and discipline? Maybe that’s the only choice?
We have not had an X factor indigenous type since Leon (Let’s exclude Wells, and I don’t regard Varcoe in that space).
It’s why I’d keep Stephenson in The side regardless of form as the player closest to this skill set. Elliott And Treloar have both lost their X factor due to injuries. WHE lost some zip.
Our stock types have no flare at all (Brown, Mayne, Thomas, Phillips, Varcoe, etc) and I think is why we struggle to generate scores and have created such a defensive and effort based game plan. Also why DeGoey is worth more to Collingwood than almost any other team.
Would you say we have any ‘creative’ defenders ? Maynard and Noble may be the closest. Mids - only Side, Pendles, maybe Daicos, none of whom have Tim Kelly/ Brad Hill style leg speed. It’s all one pace endurance types with limited skill.
So I’d like to see this gap addressed in our recruiting strategy along with the obvious kpf problem, because I also believe game plan reflects the strengths of the talent you have available.

 

[AndrewShawble]

This might sound bad but I would like to finish closer to the bottom this year as there are 3 outstanding talls in the top 10 and really good, fast midfielders. I think we could have 2 picks before we take Reef and that would be a massive boost to have 3 quality players coming into the club at the same time

It doesn’t sound bad, it sounds smart.

If you don’t finish top 8, you might as well finish bottom couple.

We should get games into Keane, Rantall, Bianco, Appleby, Lynch etc etc.

 

[Roverjg]

Bucks is head-strong and you want that in a leader as it can be a steadying influence in uncertain times. This season we have seen that he isn't as adaptive as he could be. The inability of the coaching department to "pivot" has hurt the side.

I agree with the rest of your post except for one thing, I wouldn't trade Langdon if I knew he could play next year. He's huge for us.

You've identified that we need fresh ideas and I think we have stagnated on that front. We need a new message.

I understand where you are coming from... I love Langdon. He is one of my favourites. However since 2016 he has effectively missed over 3 seasons through injury. Based on past history (and the report of his knee being bone on bone) it is likely he will continue to miss games. The problem with us as a club is that we continually have a log jam of players that are constantly injured. I would be happy to keep him if we were to move out other players.

 

[Doc1763]

Where to form here?? More of the same I'm afraid. The Great Dictator wont fall on his sword, and despite what he has said publicly, he will never sack Buckley.

We are stuck with the current situation until someone decides to challenge Eddie and we can actually vote him out. Until then, we will wallow in mediocrity, trying to convince ourselves we are a power club.