Resource 2020 planning thread - mistakes, corrections, research and projections

[PAFC27]

Taking the initiative after some positive feedback to start a pre-2020 planning thread.

If you're like me, there's a tonne of mistakes you've made this year - as well as plenty of things done right. Why was that the case? What can be done in 2020 to avoid or correct the same scenarios again?

I've written down a few things since March which I'll just copy/paste below unformatted as well as some U/18 players I've kept a close eye on during the championships so far. Yes I watch too much football.

I'll also take this chance to do a sneaky little plug. To this point I haven't promoted it much on this board. My best friend and I co-host a podcast together called Lane Kicking with Lewy and Checkers on Spotify. Currently, we are both ranked in the top 400 with myself at 376, and my co-host at 9. We believe we're the highest ranked fantasy podcast going around. Anyway - we go pretty in depth each week and while we're currently neck deep in 2019, we will certainly be shifting our focus towards 2020 over the off season/early preseason. Feel free to listen in!

 

[PAFC27]

Figure out basic structure early. Who are your must haves? Write a list. Who are you willing to take a gamble on? Write a list.

Find value midpricers. Players who have scored at a premium level but are heavily discounted.

Research your rookies. Buy the AFL prospectus.

Leave 50k spare.

Take a punt on some unique picks as a POD. Try to start with 4.

Have a reason for why you're picking them that particular year. Is it preseason articles, JLT form or role related? Write it down.

Have a good reason to sideways trade.

DONT TRADE PREMIUMS. Build around them. If they are out for 3 weeks...TRADE. If out for 2, consider form and fixture. Can you grab somebody similar to give you two tonnes?

Always take into account the following - role, fixture, scoring output, value. Consider bye rounds.

Weather is extremely relevant to fantasy football. Check the forecasts.

Be mindful of JLT hype. Watch the role. Why do they have it? Is a certain player absent? JLT form can be a total facade or an omen of things to come. Consider; Tim Taranto, compared to an Angus Brayshaw.

Don't make trades right before lock out. You had a whole week to research it.

Prioritise finishing your side - complete it as soon as possible.

If your rank is starting to blow out - get creative. Go down swinging because bringing in common players won't climb you up the rankings. It'll just minimise the damage.

Names of interest 2020: Brayden Sier, Will Brodie, Sam Docherty, Tom Mitchell, Josh Kelly, Alex Witherden, Clayton Oliver, Harry Shoenberg, Jackson Mead, Joshua Shute, Devon Robertson, Tom Green, Caleb Serong, Brodie Kemp, Riley Baldi, Luke Jackson, Liam Henry, Andrew Brayshaw

 

[PAFC27]

If Alastair Clarkson coaches Carlton in 2020...Patrick Cripps will be my first picked player above Docherty, Mitchell and Barlow.

 

[Colonel_Panic]

Great idea for a thread and just a great idea generally as like fantasy best practice. I haven't been doing this myself but I will be from now on.

I do have an addendum for "Don't make trades right before lock out" though; I totally agree with the sentiment, but sometimes footy (or life) throws you a curveball, and you find yourself with only minutes to do something.

My advice in that circumstance is to think seriously about the options you had earlier in the week - in my experience it's the high risk/high reward guys that loom largest, and are most tempting, but they rarely end up being the right choice when they're taken at the last minute (I find it's much easier to overlook a player's flaws in this kind of moment).

TL;DR: when your thinking time is drastically reduced, take the conservative option.

 

[Colonel_Panic]

And well done on the podcast and the results so far! I don't think I have any extra room in my podcast rotation (it's pretty ridiculous), but I'll give it a listen and see if I can squeeze it in. (Oh, it's Spotify *only*?)

 

[Sixpence]

If Alastair Clarkson coaches Carlton in 2020...Patrick Cripps will be my first picked player above Docherty, Mitchell and Barlow.

Every year there's an article speculating that Clarkson will move clubs, every year he goes nowhere.

 

[PAFC27]

Every year there's an article speculating that Clarkson will move clubs, every year he goes nowhere.

I believe 2020 will be a totally different challenge for Hawthorn though. I don't think he'll leave - seems very loyal. But jeez if there was ever an opportunity to explore new horizons...

 

[JDWCE]

Wonder how early it’ll take us to start the 2021 thread

 

[4tune8]

"Group think" ****ed me up this year. From Selby saying midpricers were doom and all others recommending Guns n rooks meant I missed out on the top scorers a price generators in that mid range, eg; Sheed, Boak, Libba but I guess I still went with Zilliams and B Smith.

Hold your premiums for as long as possible, prime example is Dunkley....worst example is Brayshaw (still holding)

Trade anyone with more than a 2 week injury (can be hard when we're not told)

Be very careful with players that have interrupted pre seasons

Back your gut...it's generally right

Set and forget rucks are the go, and because we have 2 Ruck bench don't be afraid to use them

Give the rooks a chance, as they'll get rested at some stages.

Watch for role changes, Lycett being sole ruck with Ryder and Westoff out against Geelol was a Gimme.

Start planning for the byes early. ie; using DPP to advantage and being aware of which bye rounds you're heavy in. Plus culling non playing rooks during rnds 10/11

Coming out of the byes most will have 'complete' teams but still keep working the rooks a BE's

 

[JDWCE]

"Group think" ****** me up this year. From Selby saying midpricers were doom and all others recommending Guns n rooks meant I missed out on the top scorers a price generators in that mid range, eg; Sheed, Boak, Libba but I guess I still went with Zilliams and B Smith.

Hold your premiums for as long as possible, prime example is Dunkley....worst example is Brayshaw (still holding)

Trade anyone with more than a 2 week injury (can be hard when we're not told)

Be very careful with players that have interrupted pre seasons

Back your gut...it's generally right

Set and forget rucks are the go, and because we have 2 Ruck bench don't be afraid to use them

Give the rooks a chance, as they'll get rested at some stages.

Watch for role changes, Lycett being sole ruck with Ryder and Westoff out against Geelol was a Gimme.

Start planning for the byes early. ie; using DPP to advantage and being aware of which bye rounds you're heavy in. Plus culling non playing rooks during rnds 10/11

Coming out of the byes most will have 'complete' teams but still keep working the rooks a BE's

The first half of that hit me on a spiritual level

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I think mids who can put up good tackling numbers are going to be high on my hit list

Good example is Gaff who can get 32 possessions but still score low 90s, incredibly frustrating. A mid can have a poor game possession wise but still score well because they make 10 tackles. Can also be the difference between a monster score and an ok score.

Case in point - Yeo can have a 150 with less than 30 disposals. Gaff requires a 40+ disposal game to get to a 150 point game

 

[VSTone]

Medical staff lie or have NFI, injuries can mount up quickly and derail your season.

 

[nob2210]

In general, when looking at rookies, always look at the smalls before the talls.

i.e. Baker/Petch/Stack over Burgess/Corbett/Larkey/Gardner

 

[VSTone]

In general, when looking at rookies, always look at the smalls before the talls.

i.e. Baker/Petch/Stack over Burgess/Corbett/Larkey/Gardner

Unless they are called ROB

 

[nob2210]

Unless they are called ROB

ROBbie Warnock averaged below 50 in his first two seasons, before 4 straight year averaging over 80 in years 4-7.

I rest my case...

 

[Shadow89]

Watch this space...I'll be posting something tonight that will be a mile long/will add to it at the end of the season

 

[nob2210]

Watch this space...I'll be posting something tonight that will be a mile long/will add to it at the end of the season

 

[Shadow89]

Names of interest 2020: Brayden Sier, Will Brodie, Sam Docherty, Tom Mitchell, Josh Kelly, Alex Witherden, Clayton Oliver, Harry Shoenberg, Jackson Mead, Joshua Shute, Devon Robertson, Tom Green, Caleb Serong, Brodie Kemp, Riley Baldi, Luke Jackson, Liam Henry, Andrew Brayshaw

Add Selwood (who will probably be priced under 600K for the first time ever), Dev Smith, who will be around the same after his 30% discount, Rowell and De Luca if he doesn't get a shot this year. Plenty more, but can't think of them right now/won't know until the end of the season.

EDIT: Also add Menegola if he misses another 3 matches (which is possible given latest reports), meaning that he could potentially be under 500K next year if he gets the 30% discount from 10 matches missed. Dayne Beams should be under 600K if he meets the same criteria (which looks likely). Oh, and Cal Ward, another who could be under 600K. Wow...gonna be interesting to see what people do next year with all these cheapies available. Jack Steven too, now that I think about it (although who knows what will happen there)

 

[danster168]

I think mids who can put up good tackling numbers are going to be high on my hit list

Good example is Gaff who can get 32 possessions but still score low 90s, incredibly frustrating. A mid can have a poor game possession wise but still score well because they make 10 tackles. Can also be the difference between a monster score and an ok score.

Case in point - Yeo can have a 150 with less than 30 disposals. Gaff requires a 40+ disposal game to get to a 150 point game

Yet gaff has one of the highest averages in the game....

 

[PAFC27]

Add Selwood (who will probably be priced under 600K for the first time ever), Dev Smith, who will be around the same after his 30% discount, Rowell and De Luca if he doesn't get a shot this year. Plenty more, but can't think of them right now/won't know until the end of the season.

EDIT: Also add Menegola if he misses another 3 matches (which is possible given latest reports), meaning that he could potentially be under 500K next year if he gets the 30% discount from 10 matches missed. Dayne Beams should be under 600K if he meets the same criteria (which looks likely). Oh, and Cal Ward, another who could be under 600K. Wow...gonna be interesting to see what people do next year with all these cheapies available. Jack Steven too, now that I think about it (although who knows what will happen there)

The reason I didn't mentioned Rowell or Anderson is that I believe they're men playing against boys and wont be worth their price tag of 270k~. Though if one of them goes to the Crows, things could get interesting.

 

[rimb]

Players don't get a 30% discount for missing 10 or more games.

The get a discount of 3% for every game less than 10 played for the season.

So the only way to get a 30% discount is to not play a single game for the season.

 

[Shadow89]

Players don't get a 30% discount for missing 10 or more games.

The get a discount of 3% for every game less than 10 played for the season.

So the only way to get a 30% discount is to not play a single game for the season.

Ahhhh my mistake.

With that criteria, then Steven, Ward and Smith look most likely for a decent price drop (with the obvious locks in Doch and Titch). Given that there are 22 games for the season (barring the bye) that means that if they play only 2 matches, then the other 10 would be at 3% less per game. Ward will have played 4 for the season whilst missing 18 (8 games over the 10 matches missed threshold = 24%). Is that what you mean?

Cheers for the info btw

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Yet gaff has one of the highest averages in the game....

I didn’t say it’s a deal breaker. It’s something to “consider”

 

[The breed]

My 2 cents worth with what has to me in the last so so so many years, has been brought up. No last minute trades, and go with your gut.

 

[Thetrader15]

Note to self - of the top 8 mids this year, only 1 or 2 will be there next year