Resource 2020 planning thread - mistakes, corrections, research and projections

[Thetrader15]

Note to self - take the loophole vc score

Note to self - Lock C on Brodie Grundy

 

[danster168]

Probably picking up a ruck rookie that has Ruck/fwd status so that I have flexibility in the case of guys like Rowan Marshall etc.

Seems like everyone will go Grundy/Gawn/Doc/Mitchell next year already.

 

[Sixpence]

Players don't get a 30% discount for missing 10 or more games.

The get a discount of 3% for every game less than 10 played for the season.

So the only way to get a 30% discount is to not play a single game for the season.

Does that mean Titch drops to ~$660k? Oh boy, wowee if that's the case! Would end up with a 80-90% selected rate for round 1! (Catering for a few auto selected teams and the completely clueless)

 

[rimb]

Does that mean Titch drops to ~$660k? Oh boy, wowee if that's the case! Would end up with a 80-90% selected rate for round 1! (Catering for a few auto selected teams and the completely clueless)

I guess so, but AF has a history of creating exceptions to these rules so don't bank on it!

 

[PAFC27]

I guess so, but AF has a history of creating exceptions to these rules so don't bank on it!

Probably for the best in certain scenarios. 95% of the comp owning one player benefits no one

 

[PAFC27]

Had a bit of down time at work today and decided to have a peek towards 2020 and some potentially fantasy relevant players in their (assumed) positions. Which ones stand out for you personally?

Defenders
Sam Docherty, Wayne Milera, Alex Witherden,
Harry Jones, Francis Watson, Jake Lloyd, Christian Salem, Nic Newman, Luke Ryan, Andrew McGrath, Sydney Stack, Patrick Naish, Bayley Fritsch, Jordan Clark, Harry Perryman, Ryan Clarke, Connor Blakely, Hunter Clark

Midfielders
Tom Mitchell, Clayton Oliver, Brayden Sier, Patrick Cripps, Hugh McCluggage, Jacob Hopper, Ed Langdon, Dayne Beams, Cam Ellis-Yolmen, Jack Viney, Taylor Adams, Jack Graham, Karl Amon, Jackson Hately, Jye Caldwell, Jack Ross, Callan Ward, Luke Valente, Andrew Brayshaw

Rucks
Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn, Rowan Marshall, Scott Lycett, Nic Naitanui, Archie Smith, Darcy Cameron, Sam Draper

Forwards
Devon Smith, Sam Menegola, Jack Higgins,
Caleb Daniel, Jack Martin, Sam Powell-Pepper,
Zac Fisher, Toby McLean, Josh Battle, Bailey Smith, Orazio Fantasia, Sam Weideman, Darcy Tucker, Chad Wingard, Paddy Dow, Tom Cutler

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

I'd love to hear from those in the top 100s, rather than hacks like me ranked 10k+.

But since you asked...

There are probably a few categories of advice being given here. Perhaps we could break it down into:
1. Starting squad strategy
2. Trading
3. Rookie selections

On starting squad and premium selection, one rule of thumb I have is to favour younger players (mid 20s) over older players, other things being equal. Guys who may be guns can fall off very quickly and I'd rather not take the risk. Boak was an exception this year, but this was my rationale in selecting Taranto, Macrae, Dunkley, Steele, Kelly, Brayshaw as some of my starting premos. You can see that there were some flops there, but also some wins.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Note to self - of the top 8 mids this year, only 1 or 2 will be there next year

Kelly
Taranto
Cogs
Treloar
Gaff
Macrea
Zerrett

Are all top 15 mids and you wouldn’t think any have hit their peak apart from maybe Gaff and Macrea but they’d plateau at worst

 

[danster168]

I've seen enough this year to suggest that grundy, whitfield, taranto, crisp and dunkley are the must haves of next year.

brayshaw could be in the mix too given his price. could very well bounce back if melbourne become even an average team next year.

 

[PAFC27]

I've seen enough this year to suggest that grundy, whitfield, taranto, crisp and dunkley are the must haves of next year.

brayshaw could be in the mix too given his price. could very well bounce back if melbourne become even an average team next year.

850K+ for Dunkley as a pure mid is a bit risky for mine

 

[danster168]

850K+ for Dunkley as a pure mid is a bit risky for mine

I just like the way he compiles his points. doesnt rely on others to get his points and doesnt get tagged. although he may today. lol. and the coach will use his brain and not play him out of position like he did to start this season.

 

[PAFC27]

I just like the way he compiles his points. doesnt rely on others to get his points and doesnt get tagged. although he may today. lol. and the coach will use his brain and not play him out of position like he did to start this season.

Definitely a lot of similarities between he and Yeo who has done pretty well this year

Hopefully Brayshaw spuds it for 6 more weeks so I don't feel so disgusted putting him in my side when he's 450K...

 

[TheRednWhite]

I've seen enough this year to suggest that grundy, whitfield, taranto, crisp and dunkley are the must haves of next year.

brayshaw could be in the mix too given his price. could very well bounce back if melbourne become even an average team next year.

take Crisp of that list, he is on a hot streak now but it will be hard to start with him at top dollar when he is capable of 50s. Only premo defenders I will pick at the start will be Doch, Lloyd and Whit (if he even gets def status).

 

[TheRednWhite]

Definitely a lot of similarities between he and Yeo who has done pretty well this year

Hopefully Brayshaw spuds it for 6 more weeks so I don't feel so disgusted putting him in my side when he's 450K...

not fair.. everyone going to pick Brayspud and I can never pick him again after the trauma of this year. Just like Parker last year, he came good this year, but I couldn't even look at him. Brayspud will be 110+ next year!

 

[DustyTiggers]

Will be keen to see how my current rabble of a backline is used next year - sicily and whether he goes back to intercept marks, Does perryman get more mid role, does blakely get more mid role. Nooooooope at the moment.

 

[samFFC]

From last 2 Seasons.

Pick the “Jack Macrae” breakout type and get at a good price. Macrae rd 5-6 last year, Dunkley rd 7-8 this year.

Pick the “second year breakout player” and start them - Oliver, Telly

Ruck rookies with good JS are arguably the most valuable commodity - English 2018, ROB 2019

 

[PAFC27]

From last 2 Seasons.

Pick the “Jack Macrae” breakout type and get at a good price. Macrae rd 5-6 last year, Dunkley rd 7-8 this year.

Pick the “second year breakout player” and start them - Oliver, Telly

Ruck rookies with good JS are arguably the most valuable commodity - English 2018, ROB 2019

I think the fourth season is also a great indicator. Draft year play a bit of footy...second year they address issues in their game leading to second year blues, third year they begin to find their feet and fourth year they start to assert themselves as a player

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I think the fourth season is also a great indicator. Draft year play a bit of footy...second year they address issues in their game leading to second year blues, third year they begin to find their feet and fourth year they start to assert themselves as a player

I've crunched the numbers on this and am hoping to come out with a finalised these on the fantasy breakout season. Former winner Selby was always very big on a 2nd year breakout - famously tipping the likes of Brayshaw as a good pick this season (the Freo variety). However I always thought it was third season. As a sneak peak to my figures (which I intend to update after this season), its relatively spliut between players who break out in their second or third season (i defined breaking out by increasing average of 10 or more), but importantly, there's a significantly high proportion of players who will then go to another level in the next season. And really, it's that year you want to get on board. An increase form say 70ppg to 85ppg, while good on paper doesn't help your AFL Classic team out much, but getting a player who goes on to avergae 100 after averaging 85 the year before is what can set you off well to start a season.

I also am in the process of analysing historical data on a games played basis as opposed to years on list and, unsurprisingly, players seem to break out after playing rougly 16-17 games, but then again, go to another level around 35 games or so.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Charlie Curnow out for the season now as Carlton takes a cautious approach. Unfortunately played 11 games so won't get a discount, but will be priced at 65 and, when fit and firing, should average a fair bit more than that.

 

[PAFC27]

I've crunched the numbers on this and am hoping to come out with a finalised these on the fantasy breakout season. Former winner Selby was always very big on a 2nd year breakout - famously tipping the likes of Brayshaw as a good pick this season (the Freo variety). However I always thought it was third season. As a sneak peak to my figures (which I intend to update after this season), its relatively spliut between players who break out in their second or third season (i defined breaking out by increasing average of 10 or more), but importantly, there's a significantly high proportion of players who will then go to another level in the next season. And really, it's that year you want to get on board. An increase form say 70ppg to 85ppg, while good on paper doesn't help your AFL Classic team out much, but getting a player who goes on to avergae 100 after averaging 85 the year before is what can set you off well to start a season.

I also am in the process of analysing historical data on a games played basis as opposed to years on list and, unsurprisingly, players seem to break out after playing rougly 16-17 games, but then again, go to another level around 35 games or so.

Have a look at Hugh McCluggage. Then shut up and pretend I never said anything. Shh.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

I'm not sure there is any learning you can take from this, it's perhaps just the way it goes but amidst a bunch of injuries I was choosing between Hurn and Stewart to trade in prior to Rd 9. At that point there was only 20 points between them in total points.

As you can guess, I chose Hurn. He has 137 the first week; 75 to 3/4 time the next game and been injury plagued and tagged ever since. In that time Stewart has scored 215 more than Hurn.

Those decisions that at the time seem a 'flip of the coin' can be very significant.

 

[DynamiteDons]

i reckon R2 could be one of those positions you could go POD on. Select Grundy and then choose another Ruck and save that little bit of cash going wither a Marshall, Witts etc.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

i reckon R2 could be one of those positions you could go POD on. Select Grundy and then choose another Ruck and save that little bit of cash going wither a Marshall, Witts etc.

Wonder who that may be next year? Draper? Williams at WC? Mind you, those guys will be super cheap.

 

[4tune8]

I'm not sure there is any learning you can take from this, it's perhaps just the way it goes but amidst a bunch of injuries I was choosing between Hurn and Stewart to trade in prior to Rd 9. At that point there was only 20 points between them in total points.

As you can guess, I chose Hurn. He has 137 the first week; 75 to 3/4 time the next game and been injury plagued and tagged ever since. In that time Stewart has scored 215 more than Hurn.

Those decisions that at the time seem a 'flip of the coin' can be very significant.

It really comes down to starting prices, if Grawndy are both priced at maximum then it's probably worth the gamble, RO'B and Marshall have been great this year but not starting with Gawn has cost me shitloads points wise

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Have a look at Hugh McCluggage. Then shut up and pretend I never said anything. Shh.

McCluggage and Berry are two I will be watching closely over the ps. Witherden too, given his poor year.