Resource 2020 planning thread - mistakes, corrections, research and projections

[JADED]

McCluggage and Berry are two I will be watching closely over the ps. Witherden too, given his poor year.

McCluggage & Hopper look like they could push up to a premo average.

 

[PAFC27]

What PREMIUM forwards will we see maintain their status this year? Having a look over things...not many above 650K

 

[PAFC27]

McCluggage & Hopper look like they could push up to a premo average.

Dayne Beams will be ~620K next year which will make things interesting with the mid priced choices

 

[JADED]

What PREMIUM forwards will we see maintain their status this year? Having a look over things...not many above 650K

Not looking at prices but
Danger, Ziebell, Walters & Heeney should keep

Boak, Marshall, Kelly, Dunkley, Worpel, Dusty & Curnow likely to lose it right?
(I have Gresham at F6 and he's also a chance to lose it based on starting positions lately (mid) unless he gets bumped real soon)

 

[Benjo_]

Despite completing my team two rounds ago and having a much better team than those around me, I'm currently ranked 9k and the damage has already been done. I did my best to complete my team earlier than others by trading around my premiums whilst trading in the best rookies; this is a strategy that usually serves me well but has killed me in the form of total points this year. Holding the likes of Brayshaw, Sicily and MCrouch for too long has really hurt my ranking and has cost me around 50 points a week. Even though my team is complete now and is scoring accordingly, next year I probably have to implement a more aggressive trading strategy in order to trade out the underperforming/injured premos immediately to keep the total points flowing before it's too late.

 

[4tune8]

Despite completing my team two rounds ago and having a much better team than those around me, I'm currently ranked 9k and the damage has already been done. I did my best to complete my team earlier than others by trading around my premiums whilst trading in the best rookies; this is a strategy that usually serves me well but has killed me in the form of total points this year. Holding the likes of Brayshaw, Sicily and MCrouch for too long has really hurt my ranking and has cost me around 50 points a week. Even though my team is complete now and is scoring accordingly, next year I probably have to implement a more aggressive trading strategy in order to trade out the underperforming/injured premos immediately to keep the total points flowing before it's too late.

Pretty much the same boat here. Brayshaw was the most difficult, I was ready to trade him out, he then pulled a 91 with a 1/2 as fulltime mid so I gave him another week, where he promptly tonned up with a 129. His year has been almost impossible to read, 1st 6 games averaged 106, next 4 averaged 70 and I was about to trade (how long do you give an underperforming premo before you trade him out) Also had a couple of injuries around rnd 9 with D Smith, Libba and Jack Ross. Back to his averages though, next 4 games average was 94 (not quite enough to drop, plus dealing with byes) next 4 games average is 61, but I, like most on here have had a shitload of injuries to deal with over the last 4 weeks, so, realistically, there was **** all I could do about.
I did hold a couple of injured premos, which I probably won't do next year.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Despite completing my team two rounds ago and having a much better team than those around me, I'm currently ranked 9k and the damage has already been done. I did my best to complete my team earlier than others by trading around my premiums whilst trading in the best rookies; this is a strategy that usually serves me well but has killed me in the form of total points this year. Holding the likes of Brayshaw, Sicily and MCrouch for too long has really hurt my ranking and has cost me around 50 points a week. Even though my team is complete now and is scoring accordingly, next year I probably have to implement a more aggressive trading strategy in order to trade out the underperforming/injured premos immediately to keep the total points flowing before it's too late.

I want to echo this as well.

I traded Dunkley to Boak in Rd3, and got Dunkley back in after he scored back to back 120s. Waited 2 weeks before jumping on Boak, wanted to ensure it wasn't a fluke Rd1 score. And also waited 2 weeks on Dunkley before getting back on. But perhaps I was too conservative on both- could have saved lots of $$ and grabbed pts by jumping on Boak earlier and Dunks once he scored that 145 in R7.

I also held Brayshaw way too long. Only traded him last week. Prioritised rookie downgrades/upgrades but next year I will be more ruthless in culling underperforming premos, and taking risks by jumping on and off quickly.

 

[4tune8]

I want to echo this as well.

I traded Dunkley to Boak in Rd3, and got Dunkley back in after he scored back to back 120s. Waited 2 weeks before jumping on Boak, wanted to ensure it wasn't a fluke Rd1 score. And also waited 2 weeks on Dunkley before getting back on. But perhaps I was too conservative on both- could have saved lots of $$ and grabbed pts by jumping on Boak earlier and Dunks once he scored that 145 in R7.

I also held Brayshaw way too long. Only traded him last week. Prioritised rookie downgrades/upgrades but next year I will be more ruthless in culling underperforming premos, and taking risks by jumping on and off quickly.

I think 2 weeks to assess players is about right, otherwise you're going to be too reactive to players down days, particularly if they are tagged. The move to drop Dunkley to Boak in Rnd 3 was a smart move as you missed Dunkleys next 3 shit scores and got in a keeper premo.

The knack to doing well is to identify those players early and have them in your starting team.....I had Boak all preseason but somehow omitted him from my starting lineup, same could be said for Sheed and Libba. I didn't get Boak in until after his Bye, brought Libba in at rnd 5 when he went to complete shit. Started with Dunkley and held (thank ****) started with Brayshaw and held until last week (stupid ****). In hindsight an ideal trade would have been Brayshaw > Gaff in round 3 but I tried to go with the mantra of not sidewaysing or trading premos....not next year

 

[Briar Gold]

I finished 115th a few years ago in just my second year. That's not a brag but context for some thoughts.

Back then I didn't know about the unwritten rules (hold for certain injuries, avoid mid pricers, stick with premiums etc) and I did well!

Clearly got very lucky but I was
absolutely ruthless with injuries. Didn't hold anyone and didn't pick any players with injury clouds. I even traded Gawn based on a report he was sore from training. He played that week and was poor, then out for a bit.

I think this advice is even more important now that clubs have gotten worse with their injury reports in the last few years.

Arguably goes hand in hand with aiming for players aged around 23 - 24 who in general are less prone to hammies and calves.

Also that year I did well I had a few mid pricers. Nothing crazy but some that served their purpose.

Anyway, a couple of suggestions. Since then I've been more caught up in conventional thinking and been around the 5,000 to 10,000 rank.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

I think 2 weeks to assess players is about right, otherwise you're going to be too reactive to players down days, particularly if they are tagged. The move to drop Dunkley to Boak in Rnd 3 was a smart move as you missed Dunkleys next 3 s**t scores and got in a keeper premo.

The knack to doing well is to identify those players early and have them in your starting team.....I had Boak all preseason but somehow omitted him from my starting lineup, same could be said for Sheed and Libba. I didn't get Boak in until after his Bye, brought Libba in at rnd 5 when he went to complete s**t. Started with Dunkley and held (thank fu**) started with Brayshaw and held until last week (stupid fu**). In hindsight an ideal trade would have been Brayshaw > Gaff in round 3 but I tried to go with the mantra of not sidewaysing or trading premos....not next year

Yeah that's good advice I think.

Generally my learning this year is to move more quickly on premos. Both underperforming ones in my team (trade out), and trade-in targets.

Trading in Boak early once his role was clear
Trading out Dunk early, and then in when he got his mojo back (required reading a bit of the Bulldogs tea leaves)
Trading out Brayshaw when it was clear he wasn't the same fantasy player as last season.
Trading out Sicily early to avoid his spud scores.

Being able to jump on premos at the right time- Dusty, Macrae, Dunkley, Crisp, Marshall etc.

 

[Benjo_]

Florent and Houston

 

[samFFC]

Not looking at prices but
Danger, Ziebell, Walters & Heeney should keep

Boak, Marshall, Kelly, Dunkley, Worpel, Dusty & Curnow likely to lose it right?
(I have Gresham at F6 and he's also a chance to lose it based on starting positions lately (mid) unless he gets bumped real soon)

Doubtful Danger will
Otherwise agree with you
And none of those are particularly enticing for next year hey!

Devon Smith?
Greene should keep it but will now be expensive unless Cogs goes and he gets an ongoing midfield slot.

 

[samFFC]

I finished 115th a few years ago in just my second year. That's not a brag but context for some thoughts.

Back then I didn't know about the unwritten rules (hold for certain injuries, avoid mid pricers, stick with premiums etc) and I did well!

Clearly got very lucky but I was
absolutely ruthless with injuries. Didn't hold anyone and didn't pick any players with injury clouds. I even traded Gawn based on a report he was sore from training. He played that week and was poor, then out for a bit.

I think this advice is even more important now that clubs have gotten worse with their injury reports in the last few years.

Arguably goes hand in hand with aiming for players aged around 23 - 24 who in general are less prone to hammies and calves.

Also that year I did well I had a few mid pricers. Nothing crazy but some that served their purpose.

Anyway, a couple of suggestions. Since then I've been more caught up in conventional thinking and been around the 5,000 to 10,000 rank.

Good advice

Though that was why I didn’t get Boak and that cost me this year!!

Those rules I guess come from limited trades times and the concern you’ll complete your side but with no trades left to replace late year injuries.
With this format I think you’re probably right. Especially with the 1-2 week injuries that drag on and on.

 

[Aussie_boy]

One rule I will be following next year is no Friday night captains. It just backfires every time.

Injuries were very unkind to me this year and it just sets you back, I had guys cashed up on the bench that I simply couldn’t downgrade. I never even had the chance to get rid of Tom Atkins.

Also focusing on role of rookies as opposed to previous scoring. For instance I think it was round 3 everyone fielded Bailey Scott over Constable and Constable ended up scoring about 90 points more from memory. Constable had a much better role but as Scott had gone well the first 2 rounds everyone went with him.

No KPP rule could be tested next year too as the lack of forwards is concerning.

 

[VSTone]

One rule I will be following next year is no Friday night captains. It just backfires every time.

Injuries were very unkind to me this year and it just sets you back, I had guys cashed up on the bench that I simply couldn’t downgrade. I never even had the chance to get rid of Tom Atkins.

Also focusing on role of rookies as opposed to previous scoring. For instance I think it was round 3 everyone fielded Bailey Scott over Constable and Constable ended up scoring about 90 points more from memory. Constable had a much better role but as Scott had gone well the first 2 rounds everyone went with him.

No KPP rule could be tested next year too as the lack of forwards is concerning.

Injuries were my primary bane.

 

[Crashy]

Look at the team that won it this year,

they traded the spud out after round 1 where he scored 100

Need to be brutal with under performing mids

 

[Sonny Hayes]

Think Bailey Smith could be the Worpel of next season if he keeps forward status but Dogs midfield is just stacked so could be a concern.

Also glad 2019 is over, feel like pure shit just want captain Mitchell back.

 

[DustyTiggers]

Not sure if I just haven’t been playing long enough, but this year seemed to be pretty different to most. Generating money was real hard, some premos never fired, it seemed like a different year to most. But I guess the key for me was to stay on the money generating. But sometimes this comes at the cost of infield points so I guess my thing was to balance points on field when necessary. I’ve never been in the real top of the top so I reckon I haven’t quite got this right, or started with the right guys or something. But cash generation seemed unusually difficult this year. For me key will be to get the guys at the start as right as can with the el cheapo premos in, take a few gambles, see what happens. I’ll probably finish exactly the same, but I tend to never get the starting guys right, so put a bit of effort in to the start if I can be bothered.

 

[random lurker]

Not sure if I just haven’t been playing long enough, but this year seemed to be pretty different to most. Generating money was real hard, some premos never fired, it seemed like a different year to most. But I guess the key for me was to stay on the money generating. But sometimes this comes at the cost of infield points so I guess my thing was to balance points on field when necessary. I’ve never been in the real top of the top so I reckon I haven’t quite got this right, or started with the right guys or something. But cash generation seemed unusually difficult this year. For me key will be to get the guys at the start as right as can with the el cheapo premos in, take a few gambles, see what happens. I’ll probably finish exactly the same, but I tend to never get the starting guys right, so put a bit of effort in to the start if I can be bothered.

Yeah it helps to start with a full playing squad... I actually found the cash gen wasn't too bad this year with a lot of good rookies coming through at the right times, and was pretty lucky with injuries. Had a lot of them still but nowhere near as bad as some.

My best rank this year was actually round 1 where I jagged a couple good cheapie / midprice picks (sheed, rocky, both had had exceptional jlt scores) had the main good field rookies , the only players I really missed out on from the start were boak and Taranto and Tim kelly, and rozee from the rookies. Couldn't decide between Higgins & Worpel so got both and traded Higgins out soon after. Big problem was F6 + forward rookie bench (holding Balta until his bye, rotating the other spot until I settled on Hams instead of Ross, who never played again until last 2 weeks!) and holding Dunkley for all his shitty weeks... the Dunkley one obviously came good but I also kept Brayshaw until round 18, hoping he'd pull a Dunkley lol

English became Mumford who became Gawn when he bottomed out. Traded out williams when he was injured mid year and Smith at his bye then didn't get Williams back until 3 or 4 weeks ago. Sheed became Merrett after Sheed's first bad score, Merret finally showed something and was actually cheaper than him by then! Traded out Hore when he was dropped in round 2, for Lockhart who had a crap score and I think was dropped the week after. Held Lockhart and got Hore back after he came back in and scored 100 or something! Fielded Bailey scott in week 2 for a massive score of 30, benched Constable for his 106...

By round 4 (still holding Dunkley & Sheed, Higgins had become Rozee for his worst score) suddenly dropped about 5000 spots to 7,447 then lucked my way all the way back to top 1000 for the last few weeks... then dropped a couple hundred spots on the last week to finish 904 when I took the C off Grundy whoops.

Best move was starting Whitfield and holding him when he was first injured to get his beautiful 190 when lots had traded him out, and bringing in Macrae when he was cheap over the byes for his 180. Worst move was bringing in Sicily in the same week. Best rookies were Walsh, Stack, Duursma, Rozee & Hore. Held Worpel til the end!

Sorry for the long story I hope it wasn't too boring, would love to see other people's tales of the season if they can be bothered

Round 1:




Round 23:

 

[DustyTiggers]

Yeah it helps to start with a full playing squad... I actually found the cash gen wasn't too bad this year with a lot of good rookies coming through at the right times, and was pretty lucky with injuries. Had a lot of them still but nowhere near as bad as some.

My best rank this year was actually round 1 where I jagged a couple good cheapie / midprice picks (sheed, rocky, both had had exceptional jlt scores) had the main good field rookies , the only players I really missed out on from the start were boak and Taranto and Tim kelly, and rozee from the rookies. Couldn't decide between Higgins & Worpel so got both and traded Higgins out soon after. Big problem was F6 + forward rookie bench (holding Balta until his bye, rotating the other spot until I settled on Hams instead of Ross, who never played again until last 2 weeks!) and holding Dunkley for all his s**tty weeks... the Dunkley one obviously came good but I also kept Brayshaw until round 18, hoping he'd pull a Dunkley lol

English became Mumford who became Gawn when he bottomed out. Traded out williams when he was injured mid year and Smith at his bye then didn't get Williams back until 3 or 4 weeks ago. Sheed became Merrett after Sheed's first bad score, Merret finally showed something and was actually cheaper than him by then! Traded out Hore when he was dropped in round 2, for Lockhart who had a crap score and I think was dropped the week after. Held Lockhart and got Hore back after he came back in and scored 100 or something! Fielded Bailey scott in week 2 for a massive score of 30, benched Constable for his 106...

By round 4 (still holding Dunkley & Sheed, Higgins had become Rozee for his worst score) suddenly dropped about 5000 spots to 7,447 then lucked my way all the way back to top 1000 for the last few weeks... then dropped a couple hundred spots on the last week to finish 904 when I took the C off Grundy whoops.

Best move was starting Whitfield and holding him when he was first injured to get his beautiful 190 when lots had traded him out, and bringing in Macrae when he was cheap over the byes for his 180. Worst move was bringing in Sicily in the same week. Best rookies were Walsh, Stack, Duursma, Rozee & Hore. Held Worpel til the end!

Sorry for the long story I hope it wasn't too boring, would love to see other people's tales of the season if they can be bothered

Round 1:

View attachment 734727


Round 23:

View attachment 734744

Good write up man. Your starting team S**ts all over mine. I went way too many flyers. With the cash gen I thought it started pretty well, with many rooks doing there thing, and most holding there spot too. If I hadnt got ROB I would have been way behind the eight ball, I guess I already was but he brought me back. After around the byes I really went to crap. Pretty much every rookie I got would be out very shortly, or just not generate much. On top of that made some terrible premo trades, including Sicily, Blakely, holding Witho, taking a stab at Brayshaw, taking a stab at Ross then trade him out before he goes on a run, Cripps was probably OK in the end, traded Worpel, ROB, Duurs, Walsh, all too early, and also traded Brouch which was just stupid. He did get me to Jelly though so cant have too much of a go. Failed big time in thinking there were better backs than WIlliams and BSmith, trading them to the likes of Sicily and Laird. Pretty much a tale of two or three seasons in one really, crap start, made a heap of ground in the byes by just getting some trades right, got to around top 2K, and then failed miserably in trades then after. In short, just terrible trading in hind sight, obviously would have been genius if they all come off and SIcily and Blakely did hat I thought they might but it just kills ya when you get a 60 from Sicily and 120 from Williams. Then trade Ross and lose out a 140. Lost points pretty much every round after the byes. I revoke my coaching rights. But reckon I just need to start with not as many flyers next year and play a bit more cautious to start with and then go nuts and lose it all.

 

[TheRednWhite]

there are just too many mistakes to list so I'll list the things I got right:

1. Starting Brouch
2. Starting Crisp, never thought he would end up being this good. He was my starting D1 and he stunk early in the year.
3. Starting Taranto...oh no wait I forgot, I traded him to Libbaspud after 2 weeks and watched taranto become a top mid for months before jumping back on
4. Starting Worpel
5. Getting Crae and Dunks just when they went on their amazing runs
6. Trading in Wingard, had him for the last 2 weeks. One of my best trades and I never really planned for it.


On radar for next year:
- Wingard, so underpriced given what I saw of him in the 2 weeks I had him. If he keeps fwd status he is a lock
- Hunter Clark, slowed down at the end of the year but he still has room for improvement and hopefully more mid time
- premo mids that tackle and are third in line for a tag. So Dunks and Taranto, even though they will be priced highly. Treloar as well, I can't believe I went the whole year watching him run around all day without an opponent, was simply infuriating. No Sloane, no Cripps.
- will wait for Zerrett and Gaff to have a bad game and then jump on straight after, these guys very rarely stink it up. Got to respect a low 100 if it happens nearly every week.

 

[mezaire]

I feel like I had a decent starting team as I was ranked 370th after rd1, but injuries hit me pretty hard.

I think next year we will really struggle for fwd premo's to start with so I can see sides starting with 3/4 fwd rookies.

A few other thoughts
- Dunkley's ceiling means he's a lock for me rd1 next year
- I will definitely start with the two big rucks, unless ROB looks like he could be sole ruck...maybe
- definitely starting with Doc, Lloyd and Laird
- Rankine will be the most selected players rd1
- don't touch a mid priced mid/fwd unless 100% they are playing midfield!!

 

[Cotchy9]

So just updated to the new iPhone, and apparently the Dream Stats app isn’t downloadable anymore. Anyone know what the story is there? Is one of the great apps for fantasy scores

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

A bit late in the night for a spiel but it was a frustrating year. The chart below will give you the idea.

Was happy enough with my start but injuries hit soon after. Managed to resurrect things (quite well actually) and surged through the byes. About 6 weeks ago I got my rank to 1300ish from upwards of 11K but then stalled.

Made a few brave (stupid) calls in the last few weeks to try and make top 1000 but all I did was cost myself a Prelim in my money league and send my ranking to 1600+ and finally 2148.

Already doing prices for next year although at a more leisurely pace than usual. When I felt I couldn't make the top 1000 I lost a bit of interest and I'm still not that motivated.

Plenty to focus on with the Tigers still in action and all the trade and delisting/retirement talk. At some stage soon I will go through all the players that played less than 10 games and try and assign a price to them. Will be interesting to see if the guys who played one game get a 27% discount like they are supposed to or if they get (the usual) 25%. I brought this to Warnie's attention in the preseason and he was quite disbelieving but I showed him plenty of proof.

It's been going on for years and it doesn't make sense why. The discount is supposed to go in 3% increments. I can only think someone has put the wrong multiply figure into Excel and nobody has noticed.

I don't get too much time to contribute but it's been an enjoyable year on here. I must say it's a pleasure to converse with a decent group of people. A miracle that, apart from a few, it stayed that way.

All the best over summer. We will all be fired up about another season before we know it.

 

[bl4ke]

2020 drawing board anyone? Obviously ignoring all the rookies as they are irrelevant at this stage