AFL 2021 AFL Grand Final (Macrae is a spud thread)

[Del125763]

seen the hot favs lose before, all it takes is a bad start, poison odds, who has the market for this??

Sportsbet

 

[Del125763]

Any value in the 'To Poll a Vote' market in the Norm Smith Medal? Gotta remember there are 5 judges as well

 

[iluvparis]

Ed 'Hutchings' Langdon appeals at $7

 

[Del125763]

That $7 is good value if there are 5 judges, with 4 judges I'll probably give a miss.

 

[54Dogs]

Gardner interesting at $41 given he's not playing

 

[burge13]

Gardner interesting at $41 given he's not playing

Gotta feel for Petty who will play being the same odds as someone who isn't

 

[FadingTheFave]

For those keen to place a bet on Melbourne winning this week, you may be best served to actually bet on the "premiership winner" market on Betfair, rather than the match odds.

For some reason, Melbourne keeps trading at $1.75 in the 'AFL Premiers 2021' market, yet they are trading at $1.73 in the match odds.

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Similarly, if you're keen to back the Bulldogs to win, obviously use the 'Match Odds' market to get a superior price.

What’s the thinking here? You genuinely think the Dogs are no chance or an emotional hedge?

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Any value in the 'To Poll a Vote' market in the Norm Smith Medal? Gotta remember there are 5 judges as well

View attachment 1243983

Wheres that?

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[X_box_X]

What’s the thinking here? You genuinely think the Dogs are no chance or an emotional hedge?

I won't be carrying any exposure into the game. My current position is if my lay bet on Melbourne at $1.73 gets matched, I'll guarantee myself a three figure return. My initial stake at $1.75 was calculated so I'd make $100 if I could have a lay bet matched at $1.73. I used the match odds as a guide because I figured the odds in that market would be a more accurate representation of the market. I therefore assessed the $1.75 for Melbourne in the premiership market to be overs. That's why I posted here so others could also take advantage.

 

[Del125763]

Wheres that?

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

PointsBet

 

[dontlimitme]

NO WAY IN HELL MELBOURNE LOSES THIS BOYS THEY SHOULD BE 1.0001

 

[Robo87]

As expected: Keath, Weightman named back in the team for dogs, vandermeer and Gardner the unlucky drops.
Dees: no change.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Any value in the 'To Poll a Vote' market in the Norm Smith Medal? Gotta remember there are 5 judges as well

View attachment 1243983

Maybe Dunkley? Youd think his form would be slowly building after that injury and still getting the mid minutes.

 

[Del125763]

wish we could do multis 'to poll a vote' for Norm Smith.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Do we know who the judges are going to be for the Norm? Sorry if this has already been answered.

 

[iluvparis]

Do we know who the judges are going to be for the Norm? Sorry if this has already been answered.

Yeah it’s a few pages back in the thread. Judd, Niall, can’t remember the other two

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Yeah it’s a few pages back in the thread. Judd, Niall, can’t remember the other two

I just had a look and can't find it in this thread.

 

[Del125763]

id imagine Embley would have to be one, considering he is giving the medal out..............

 

[ShaunWDT]

Back Oliver and Petracca for the medal, with a saver on Gawn. Easiest way to guarantee a juicy return.

If Gawn dominates hes put it down the throat of Clarry and Trac all day, hard to see him beating them, especially when a bunch of midfielders are the judging panel from all reports.

 

[Del125763]

PointsBet have H2H Most Norm Smith Votes:

Gawn $1.90 v $1.90 The Bont

 

[ShaunWDT]

PointsBet have H2H Most Norm Smith Votes:

Gawn $1.90 v $1.90 The Bont

All over Bont there, as good as Gawn played last week Rucks just don't have the history and Bevo is way too good of a coach to let him do as he pleases.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Macrae 40+ is $4.50, poison odds IMO

When does 40+ ever happen in a Grand Final? Odds feel pretty shit to me in all honesty, cannot recall it happening once in the last 20 years but happy to be corrected.

 

[Prochard123]

All over Bont there, as good as Gawn played last week Rucks just don't have the history and Bevo is way too good of a coach to let him do as he pleases.

wut

 

[ShaunWDT]

wut

You're getting even money for a midfielder to outpoll a Ruck, Boyd is the only Ruckman to even poll in the last 10 Grand Finals.

 

[Ohh Ok]

You're getting even money for a midfielder to outpoll a Ruck, Boyd is the only Ruckman to even poll in the last 10 Grand Finals.

You’re much better off taking Bont to poll at $2.40 (PointsBet)