News 2021 Fixture Thread

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Hmmm, the pessimist in me sees these results:

CWD - MCG - L
WC - MRVL - L
NM - MRVL - W
BRIS - MARS - L
GC - MRVL - L
GWS - MO - L
RICH - MCG - L
CAR - MRVL - L
PA - AO - L
StK - MRVL - L
MEL - MRVL - W
FRE - OS - W
BYE - DRAW
GEE - GMHBA - L
WC - OS - L
NM - MRVL - W
SYD - MRVL - W
GC - MS - L
ADE - MARS - W
MEL - MCG - W
ESS - MRVL - W
HAW - UTAS - W
PA - MRVL - L

That's a 9-13 season (but quite frankly the absolute minimum we should accept), so wins have to come from 50/50 games, of which I see 8 in the L column and 1 in the W column.

Forgive me for thinking this draw hasn't done us any favours, but you also have to be good enough, can't rely on it to do the hard work for us. Start the season in good form and top 4 is well and truly possible, start badly like we have the last couple of years and we'll be in BIG trouble and chasing our tail fruitlessly in the back half of the season.
So put it simply you see us as better than only Adelaide, North, Sydney, Hawks, Essendon, Freo and Melbourne, with the 11th best list?
 
Looks a relatively soft draw (especially the last third) & barring the Geelong & West Coast back-to-back, there’s not really a real tough stretch & we have 2 games at Marvel straight after that anyway.

interesting first 6 weeks, no real reason why we couldn’t win all of them but I wouldn’t be shocked if we were 2-4 at the same time. Need to set it up early.
 
Hmmm, the pessimist in me sees these results:

CWD - MCG - L
WC - MRVL - L
NM - MRVL - W
BRIS - MARS - L
GC - MRVL - L
GWS - MO - L
RICH - MCG - L
CAR - MRVL - L
PA - AO - L
StK - MRVL - L
MEL - MRVL - W
FRE - OS - W
BYE - DRAW
GEE - GMHBA - L
WC - OS - L
NM - MRVL - W
SYD - MRVL - W
GC - MS - L
ADE - MARS - W
MEL - MCG - W
ESS - MRVL - W
HAW - UTAS - W
PA - MRVL - L

That's a 9-13 season (but quite frankly the absolute minimum we should accept), so wins have to come from 50/50 games, of which I see 8 in the L column and 1 in the W column.

Forgive me for thinking this draw hasn't done us any favours, but you also have to be good enough, can't rely on it to do the hard work for us. Start the season in good form and top 4 is well and truly possible, start badly like we have the last couple of years and we'll be in BIG trouble and chasing our tail fruitlessly in the back half of the season.
Nah you definitely got the first two wrong just for starters
 

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This is the way I see most of them too, but the ultimate pessimist in me sees them as losses. Hey, I'm a Dogs supporter... :)

We did beat Brisbane in Ballarat in 2019 by 16, poor games from Charlie Cameron and Harris Andrews the helpers from memory. Bris are a step above that in my opinion now, and I'd be surprised to knock them off this time.
Have a listen if you haven’t all ready to Peter Gordon’s address to the AGM. He says some interesting and insightful things about our clubs psyche of negativity.

i know it’s hard to escape the past but I agree it’s time for us to stand up proudly

FWIW I believe we will be top 4
 
Have a listen if you haven’t all ready to Peter Gordon’s address to the AGM. He says some interesting and insightful things about our clubs psyche of negativity.

i know it’s hard to escape the past but I agree it’s time for us to stand up proudly

FWIW I believe we will be top 4
There’s definitely a section of our support that love the wallowing and the poor me attitude. I’ve had a couple of debates in the social club with some older members who were having a go at the membership guys about there being too many members and too many in the social club. It was about half full. It’s like they actively want us to remain small time because it suits them.
 
Having briefly perused the upcoming fixture for 2021 i can make the following observations.

1: In the twelve rounds before our "BYE" we play six of the top eight sides from 2020.

2: In the ten rounds post "BYE" we play three of the top eight sides from 2020.

3: We have a seven game run which is top eight teams of 2020 free post "BYE".

4: We fly six times interstate for 2021.

5: I really should say top seven sides, because we cannot play ourselves.

"BYE"
 
So put it simply you see us as better than only Adelaide, North, Sydney, Hawks, Essendon, Freo and Melbourne, with the 11th best list?

It's not quite as simple as that, but this season was a perfect example, WC was the only team we beat in the final top 8 (and they were without Natanui, Hurn, Shuey and Yeo).

Carlton and GC the others that are improving sides, and Carlton handed our asses to us too. GC will be an improved side this season with another year under their belt, and Rowell back.

Look, we certainly have the cattle, do we have the mentality and maturity to be as good as we actually should be?

Nah you definitely got the first two wrong just for starters

Nothing definite about any of it. You'd have said we definitely wouldn't get smoked by them by 8 goals in R1 last year, but we were lucky to get that close. We definitely shouldnt have been chopped to pieces by 9 goals to Carlton, or flogged by the Aints by 7 goals, but they DEFINITELY happened.

On our days both us and West Coast are as good as anyone else in the competition. But WC have those days far more often than we do.
 
It's not quite as simple as that, but this season was a perfect example, WC was the only team we beat in the final top 8 (and they were without Natanui, Hurn, Shuey and Yeo).

Carlton and GC the others that are improving sides, and Carlton handed our asses to us too. GC will be an improved side this season with another year under their belt, and Rowell back.

Look, we certainly have the cattle, do we have the mentality and maturity to be as good as we actually should be?



Nothing definite about any of it. You'd have said we definitely wouldn't get smoked by them by 8 goals in R1 last year, but we were lucky to get that close. We definitely shouldnt have been chopped to pieces by 9 goals to Carlton, or flogged by the Aints by 7 goals, but they DEFINITELY happened.

On our days both us and West Coast are as good as anyone else in the competition. But WC have those days far more often than we do.
Hey Hoges64, for every so called improving club you mentioned there has to be a corresponding club which is falling. Just an example yet say Carlton charge into the top 8, Pies may drop away? So yes we will lose some games against winning sides but likely win unexpected games against sides that drop away.
We should make the 8 next year, list is good enough, Bevo needs to keep them up for the full year and then top 4 is a chance.
 
Hey Hoges64, for every so called improving club you mentioned there has to be a corresponding club which is falling. Just an example yet say Carlton charge into the top 8, Pies may drop away? So yes we will lose some games against winning sides but likely win unexpected games against sides that drop away.
We should make the 8 next year, list is good enough, Bevo needs to keep them up for the full year and then top 4 is a chance.

I certainly can't agree more with your last sentence. List IS good enough, for sure and I'd love us to have a good consistent season to show what we can actually do to the competition, but that just doesn't seem to be in our DNA.

And yes, I get your argument also, sure. I do belive the Pies will drop from the 8 this year, but I also believe their year could be similar to this where they start strong and stumble as the year goes on. They'll be determined as all hell Rd1 to show their offseason wasn't a debacle.

I believe the top 4 are locked into the 8 again this year, and I can't see St Kilda dropping out with the additions of Crouch and Higgins. That leaves us and WC (a couple of question marks on them but they'll be thereabouts again) as the other vulnerable ones in the 8. Melbourne, Freo, Carlton and GC could all easily challenge us for these spots.

I pray to every non-existant deity there is that we can put together a season, I'm just saying if we start anywhere near as slow as we did the last 2 seasons our goose will be cooked fairly quickly with this fixture. It's giving a lot of games to the teams we'll be duelling with for the last couple of spots in the 8.
 
I certainly can't agree more with your last sentence. List IS good enough, for sure and I'd love us to have a good consistent season to show what we can actually do to the competition, but that just doesn't seem to be in our DNA.

And yes, I get your argument also, sure. I do belive the Pies will drop from the 8 this year, but I also believe their year could be similar to this where they start strong and stumble as the year goes on. They'll be determined as all hell Rd1 to show their offseason wasn't a debacle.

I believe the top 4 are locked into the 8 again this year, and I can't see St Kilda dropping out with the additions of Crouch and Higgins. That leaves us and WC (a couple of question marks on them but they'll be thereabouts again) as the other vulnerable ones in the 8. Melbourne, Freo, Carlton and GC could all easily challenge us for these spots.

I pray to every non-existant deity there is that we can put together a season, I'm just saying if we start anywhere near as slow as we did the last 2 seasons our goose will be cooked fairly quickly with this fixture. It's giving a lot of games to the teams we'll be duelling with for the last couple of spots in the 8.
Should we not improve more or at least equally to any other team? We added the best player in the draft, the best player in the trade period + a couple of other additions in positions of need. Plus we’re already a young side where natural improvement should help us at least as much as Saints/Carlton etc
 
I certainly can't agree more with your last sentence. List IS good enough, for sure and I'd love us to have a good consistent season to show what we can actually do to the competition, but that just doesn't seem to be in our DNA.

And yes, I get your argument also, sure. I do belive the Pies will drop from the 8 this year, but I also believe their year could be similar to this where they start strong and stumble as the year goes on. They'll be determined as all hell Rd1 to show their offseason wasn't a debacle.

I believe the top 4 are locked into the 8 again this year, and I can't see St Kilda dropping out with the additions of Crouch and Higgins. That leaves us and WC (a couple of question marks on them but they'll be thereabouts again) as the other vulnerable ones in the 8. Melbourne, Freo, Carlton and GC could all easily challenge us for these spots.

I pray to every non-existant deity there is that we can put together a season, I'm just saying if we start anywhere near as slow as we did the last 2 seasons our goose will be cooked fairly quickly with this fixture. It's giving a lot of games to the teams we'll be duelling with for the last couple of spots in the 8.

I can't disagree with everything you're saying, but I will say 2020 was by far our most consistent season in the past 4 years. Not only that we beat 1 team above and lost to 1 team below, placing us pretty much exactly where we deserved to be, but if you break it down by quarters won we were equal 4th. We didn't rely on winning the game in small momentum swings like we've done in many of our wins of 19 (where we were 10th in quarters won). Of course that also means our losses were more often than not based on one or two quarters where we let the opposition run away which is reflected in the abysmal points againsts. That's the next step of our development.

But I believe we've found our floor. It's not as high as I was expecting but it's a base to build off. I think we're past the stage of bipolar performances and will see another consistent season and just need to raise that floor a tiny bit.
 

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Bont and Wallis late outs?

Edit. Wallis may have got injured early on.
From memory Tom Boyd kicked four goals on Brian Lake and we lost by 72 odd points, but i struggle to remember yesterday let alone 2015.
 
Hmmm, the pessimist in me sees these results:

CWD - MCG - L
WC - MRVL - L
NM - MRVL - W
BRIS - MARS - L
GC - MRVL - L
GWS - MO - L
RICH - MCG - L
CAR - MRVL - L
PA - AO - L
StK - MRVL - L
MEL - MRVL - W
FRE - OS - W
BYE - DRAW
GEE - GMHBA - L
WC - OS - L
NM - MRVL - W
SYD - MRVL - W
GC - MS - L
ADE - MARS - W
MEL - MCG - W
ESS - MRVL - W
HAW - UTAS - W
PA - MRVL - L

That's a 9-13 season (but quite frankly the absolute minimum we should accept), so wins have to come from 50/50 games, of which I see 8 in the L column and 1 in the W column.

Forgive me for thinking this draw hasn't done us any favours, but you also have to be good enough, can't rely on it to do the hard work for us. Start the season in good form and top 4 is well and truly possible, start badly like we have the last couple of years and we'll be in BIG trouble and chasing our tail fruitlessly in the back half of the season.
We beat West Coast at Marvel this year. And beat Gold Coast at Metricon (their own home ground). So I wouldn't be writing these two off as it stands.

That streak of games from GWS to St Kilda is pretty nasty though. Could very well end up 0-5 there, but I'd expect somewhere around 2-3 or 3-2 at minimum if we're going to be at all competitive next season. Losses to Richmond and Port at their home grounds are excusable. The others not so much
 
But I believe we've found our floor. It's not as high as I was expecting but it's a base to build off.
There are three main elements in Football, Volume, Conversion and Pressure in 2020 our basic balance point was 13.3 it fluctuated round by round from a low of (-7) to a high of (+37) our conversion went from a low of 29.4% to a high of 64.7%, but we lost both games. Statistics although generally frowned upon and ridiculed are actually a useful window to the soul of the team, but the game is not played on paper it's played on grass.
 
From memory Tom Boyd kicked four goals on Brian Lake and we lost by 72 odd points, but i struggle to remember yesterday let alone 2015.
Tom Boyd kicked three goals and we lost by 70 points, not that i am saying you were wrong, but you were wrong !
 
Since when has Carlton become a team that we're expected to lose to?

my quick check says we have lost two of last three matches.

win was by 3 points, losses by 50-odd each time.

they have scored 300 points in last three, we scored 200.

beyond that it’s better reading, but we haven’t really excelled against them recently...
 
my quick check says we have lost two of last three matches.

win was by 3 points, losses by 50-odd each time.

they have scored 300 points in last three, we scored 200.

beyond that it’s better reading, but we haven’t really excelled against them recently...
Tragic. :(
 
Since when has Carlton become a team that we're expected to lose to?

Because this... :arrowdown:

:cryv1::cryv1::cryv1:

my quick check says we have lost two of last three matches.

win was by 3 points, losses by 50-odd each time.

they have scored 300 points in last three, we scored 200.

beyond that it’s better reading, but we haven’t really excelled against them recently...
 
Round 3: 2015 season

The debut of who we thought would be our next gun HBF - Lukas Webb.
 
The debut of who we thought would be our next gun HBF - Lukas Webb.

Pales into insignificance compared to the debut of Tutty !!
 

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