Prediction 2021 Time Capsule

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dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
24,735
39,592
Canberra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Arsenal
Last day to put your 2021 predictions in folks. Or to amend them.
Thread will be locked tonight.
 

Dogsman16

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 19, 2012
12,582
15,008
Minas Morgul
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
AFL
Premiers
: Port Adelaide
Runners Up: Richmond
Wooden Spoon: Adelaide

The bookies' top 8 are Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and St Kilda
Which of these clubs won't make the finals? (you can name more than one): Collingwood
Which clubs not named above will make the finals in their place?: Gold Coast Suns

Brownlow Medal: Jack Macrae
Coleman Medal: Tom Hawkins
Rising Star: Matt Rowell

Biggest AFL news story of the year: Team gets caught exploiting the sub. Draft picks taken.

WB:
H&A Wins:
Ladder position after Rd 23: 4th
How far will we go in the finals - (a) won't make the eight, (b) out in the EF, (c) out in the SF, (d) out in the PF, (e) runners-up or (f) Premiers? (d)
Charles Sutton Medal B&F top three (in order): Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Aaron Naughton
Leading WB goalkicker (incl finals): Aaron Naughton
How many goals will he kick? 47
Which WB players will be in the AA side? Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Bailey Williams
Best First Year player: McNeil
Most Improved: Rhylee West
Most Courageous: Alex Keath
Rising Star nominations (name them): McNeil, JUH
Biggest win (opponent and margin): Adelaide - 97 points
Biggest loss (opponent and margin): Geelong - 45 points
Final membership tally: 46,876
How many Brownlow Votes will Adam Treloar get in the opening round against Collingwood? 0
 

Bro_Pro

All Australian
Sep 3, 2017
686
1,000
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
AFL

Premiers: Port

Runners Up: Cats

Wooden Spoon: North



The bookies' top 8 are Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and St Kilda

Which of these clubs won't make the finals? (you can name more than one): Pies

Which clubs not named above will make the finals in their place?: Dockers



Brownlow Medal:Z.Meritt

Coleman Medal: Dixon

Rising Star: Rowell



Biggest AFL news story of the year:

Bucks shown the door with 3 games left of the season



WB:

H&A Wins: 14

Ladder position after Rd 23: 5th

How far will we go in the finals - (a) won't make the eight, (b) out in the EF, (c) out in the SF, (d) out in the PF, (e) runners-up or (f) Premiers? C

Charles Sutton Medal B&F top three (in order): Bont Daniel Jack.m

Leading WB goalkicker (incl finals): Bruce

How many goals will he kick? 34

Which WB players will be in the AA side? Bont Daniel Jack.m

Best First Year player: McNeil

Most Improved: Bruce

Most Courageous: crozier

Rising Star nominations (name them): McNeil

Biggest win (opponent and margin): Crows 76

Biggest loss (opponent and margin): Cats 42

Final membership tally: 39,627

How many Brownlow Votes will Adam Treloar get in the opening round against Collingwood? 1
 

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TBOW

Premiership Player
Aug 9, 2012
3,043
3,582
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
AFL
Premiers
: Bulldogs
Runners Up: Brisbane
Wooden Spoon: North Melbourne

The bookies' top 8 are Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and St Kilda
Which of these clubs won't make the finals? (you can name more than one): Collingwood
Which clubs not named above will make the finals in their place?: Fremantle

Brownlow Medal: Jack Steele
Coleman Medal: Charlie Dixon
Rising Star: Matt Rowell

Biggest AFL news story of the year: AFL moves to relocate North to Tasmania

WB:
H&A Wins:16
Ladder position after Rd 23: 3rd
How far will we go in the finals - (a) won't make the eight, (b) out in the EF, (c) out in the SF, (d) out in the PF, (e) runners-up or (f) Premiers? (f)
Charles Sutton Medal B&F top three (in order): Marcus Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel, Jack Macrae
Leading WB goalkicker (incl finals): Josh Bruce
How many goals will he kick? 53
Which WB players will be in the AA side? Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli, Caleb Daniel, Tom Liberatore
Best First Year player: Anthony Scott
Most Improved: Laitham Vandermeer
Most Courageous: Ryan Gardiner
Rising Star nominations (name them): Lachlan McNeil, Rhylee West, Jamarra Ugle Hagan,
Biggest win (opponent and margin): North Melbourne - 84 points
Biggest loss (opponent and margin): Port Adelaide - 36 points
Final membership tally: 50,084
How many Brownlow Votes will Adam Treloar get in the opening round against Collingwood?0
 

_Mike_

Super Moderator
Aug 10, 2009
29,737
26,691
Victoria
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Tottenham, Montreal Canadiens
AFL
Premiers
: Bris
Runners Up: Port
Wooden Spoon: Essendon

The bookies' top 8 are Richmond, Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood and St Kilda
Which of these clubs won't make the finals? (you can name more than one): Collingwood
Which clubs not named above will make the finals in their place?
: Melbourne

Brownlow Medal: Cripps
Coleman Medal: Cameron
Rising Star: Rowell

Biggest AFL news story of the year: Clarkson walks out on Hawthorn mid season

WB:
H&A Wins: 15
Ladder position after Rd 23: 3rd
How far will we go in the finals - (a) won't make the eight, (b) out in the EF, (c) out in the SF, (d) out in the PF, (e) runners-up or (f) Premiers? D
Charles Sutton Medal B&F top three
(in order): Macrae, Bont, B Smith
Leading WB goalkicker (incl finals): Naughton
How many goals will he kick? 67
Which WB players will be in the AA side? Bont, Daniel, McCrae, Naughton
 

dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
24,735
39,592
Canberra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Arsenal
The year has turned and we're all looking forward to what 2022 might bring for the Doggies faithful. But here - somewhat belatedly - is the last big look back over our shoulder at what happened in 2021.

Who made the best guesses in the Time Capsule about what would happen in season 2021? Here are the results.

General AFL predictions: We didn't do very well in this segment. Best of the bunch was AFDogs (5.5 points) followed by Doggies_13 (4.0).
WB predictions: Top of the heap here was Bro_Pro with an impressive 15.0 points. Runner up was TBOW (12.5) followed by Dazb86 (12.0) and the consistent Doggies_13 (also 12.0).

Overall the accolades go to Bro_Pro with 18.50 points with Doggies_13 second on 16.00 and TBOW third on 15.00.

I'll post some analysis and explanations later but for now here's the points table. Thanks to all who took part!

I'll put up the 2022 Time Capsule thread in the next few weeks.

1641282728434.png
 

Leon

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 13, 2004
7,437
10,830
Bound for Germany 2006!
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Harry's Heroes
Excellent work as always Dogwatch.

Given how incorrect I’ve been in this thread, I’d like to make the following predictions:


1. The COVID19 pandemic will definitely not be finished by the end of February.

2. The Bulldogs will definitely not win the 2022 premiership.


You are welcome everybody.
 

dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
24,735
39,592
Canberra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Arsenal
As promised a few notes on the Time Capsule.

Points were awarded as follows:

General AFL Predictions:

PredictionPointsHow many got it right?
Premiers (Melbourne)40
Runners-Up (WB)31 (AFDogs )
Wooden Spoon (Norf)214 (but amazingly not Leon !)
Surprise finalists* (Melb,Syd,GWS,Ess)0.5 per correct answer#11 got one right, @Vital Dread got 2
Surprise drop* (Rich, WCE, Coll, StK)0.5 per correct answer#9 got 2 right, 15 got one right
Brownlow (Wines)40
Coleman (McKay)30
Rising Star (Jackson)20 (22 went for Rowell, 2 for Phillips)

Western Bulldogs predictions:

PredictionPointsHow many got it right?
Wins (15)34
Ladder position after H&A (5th)34
How far in the finals (R-Up)11 (AFDogs)
Winner B&F /CSM (Bont)3 ^16 (and the rest picked Bont for 2nd or 3rd)
Runner-Up B&F (Macrae)2 ^3 (plus 13 picked Macrae elsewhere in top 3)
Third in B&F (Libba)2 ^0 (but three picked Libba elsewhere in top 3)
Leading Goalkicker (Bruce)36
Goals kicked by Leading G'kicker (48)1 (but I gave 0.5 for the closest)0 (two people picked 47 so got half a point each)
All Australians (Bont, Macrae, Dale)1 per correct answer#15 picked Bont and Macrae, 10 picked Bont or Macrae but not both, nobody picked Dale
Best First Year Player (Scott)22 (ScragCity and TBOW )
Most Improved (Dale)21 (Struggle )
Most Courageous (Naughton)21 (TempletonTheRat )
Rising Star Nominations (1, Weightman)10
Biggest Win (North)110 (Leon missed out again!!)
Margin of biggest win (128)10 (I gave 0.5 to Scrag who was closest - 116)
Biggest Loss (Melbourne - GF 😭)10
Margin of biggest loss (74)10 (I gave 0.5 to Jeff 1975 , closest with 54)
Membership tally (46,541)3 if within 100, 2 if within 500, 1 if within 10002 pts to Dogsman16 (335 off) and 1 pt to Virgin Dog (621 off)
How many votes Treloar in Rd 1 v Coll'wd? (0)114

Footnotes:
* = "surprise" in this sense means which of the bookies' top 8 failed to make the final eight and which outside the bookies' top 8 DID make the finals.

# = points are allocated as noted for correct answers but if you had more guesses than there were answers you had a half point deducted for each wrong answer above the threshold (eg we had 3 AAs so if you guessed three players and got two right and 1 wrong you got two points, but if you had FOUR guesses with 2 right and 2 wrong you had half a point taken off resulting in 1.5). This stops you nominating the entire squad as potential AAs! NB: you can't get less than zero though.

^ = you get 1 point for picking a top 3 B&F placegetter in the wrong order (eg if you picked Macrae as the winner you still get 1 point because he finished in the top three)
 
Last edited:

dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
24,735
39,592
Canberra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Arsenal
UPDATE ALERT !!!

In doing the tables above I noticed a couple of significant errors in the manually allocated points (generally I use Excel formulae to allocate points but that's not always possible). Mea culpa - human error. :sadv1:

I'm going to post the corrected results shortly ...
 

dogwatch

Premium Platinum
Jun 17, 2009
24,735
39,592
Canberra
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Arsenal
OK here's what happened:

1. I missed a few of the "surprise" results in the AFL section - who made the finals, who missed out etc, so minor adjustments of half a point were made. No big deal there as it didn't change the overall result, nor the AFL result (won by AFDogs).

2. I incorrectly gave Bro_Pro and Doggies_13 credit for picking where we finished (5th). Those points should have been given to _Mike_ and to dogwatch. This means the winner of the WB section was not Bro_Pro but errr ... dogwatch! :eek: The overall result was shared by Bro_Pro and dogwatch, with Doggies_13 slipping to 5th.

I know some will be saying this is a bigger stitch up than the Rising Star award in any given year (but especially a year that involves a WB player like Griffen or Bont) :think: but all I can say is sorry folks. That's the way the results fell. :sadv1:

Here is the final table with corrections as described above:

1641439341869.png
 

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