AFL 2022 AFL Round 12

[Its not the coach]

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Melbourne v Brisbane GF Dee's win
Saints top 4

@18 Pointsbet future multi builder.
Already backed Saints top 4@5.50 a couple of weeks ago before they knocked Geelong off. Surprised ya can still get 2.80 for them actually.

 

[mozz23]

What are peoples thoughts on the eagles +39.5

Yes they are atrocious but expected to be wet in Adelaide. Total points set at 148.5 currently. Under might be a good play also.

Interested to hear thoughts of some crows fans on here.

Eagles also won the past 5 meetings between the 2 sides although that’s pretty irrelevant

 

[Its not the coach]

What are peoples thoughts on the eagles +39.5

Yes they are atrocious but expected to be wet in Adelaide. Total points set at 148.5 currently. Under might be a good play also.

Interested to hear thoughts of some crows fans on here.

Eagles also won the past 5 meetings between the 2 sides although that’s pretty irrelevant

I expect Crows will win and generate plenty of chances, But with their d grade kicking at goal of late they can't be trusted at the lines, Add the possibility of plenty of rain I'd stay away from the campaigners. Sorry I couldn't help.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Lower scoring round means underdogs have better chances. There will be upsets this round , can see at least 2 upsets there.

Sydney were pretty competitive against the Dees last year at the MCG- and were a tad unlucky not to win.

Brisbane beat Freo comprehensively at Perth Stadium last year.

I think Geelong can beat the Dogs at the Docklands as a bit of an upset. Ground may be a bit foreign to Geelong players, only played there 4 games there in the last 4 years. But they do have a good historical record there with a 66-1-33 record.


Taken all 3 underdogs in a win at 21.95 boosted.

If Geelong can break even in the middle Hawkins and Cameron will ask plenty of questions of a pretty average defence, not sure its a game I'm going to bet on though.

 

[Del125763]

If Geelong can break even in the middle Hawkins and Cameron will ask plenty of questions of a pretty average defence, not sure its a game I'm going to bet on though.

Play this in any ground Australia, bar Ballarat, Id have Geelong as favourite.

The odds are right, Dogs should start favourites at Marvel. When you play almost half of your games there, over a side that doesnt play there regularly, it is taking a bit of a risk on the team that doesnt play there that often.

Geelongs midfield isnt the same as last year or previous years. I think there are 4-5 players that that are in their 30's: Danger, Selwood, Duncan, Isaac Smith, and Guthrie is approaching 30. Their net contested disposals rank has gone down a bit this season, im thinking maybe with age some of these older players are maybe a tad slower than they used to be.

Net Contested Disposals Rank in 2022:

Bulldogs +8.3 per game (5th)
Geelong +0.8 per game (10th)

Last season however the Cats beat them in that area 163-147 in Contested Disposals.

Your right about the Geelong forwards, think they are better than the Dogs defence.

Bulldogs midfield are better than the Geelong mids at the moment.

Geelong defence and Bulldogs forwards are about par.

 

[Its not the coach]

Play this in any ground Australia, bar Ballarat, Id have Geelong as favourite.

The odds are right, Dogs should start favourites at Marvel. When you play almost half of your games there, over a side that doesnt play there regularly, it is taking a bit of a risk on the team that doesnt play there that often.

Geelongs midfield isnt the same as last year or previous years. I think there are 4-5 players that that are in their 30's: Danger, Selwood, Duncan, Isaac Smith, and Guthrie is approaching 30. Their net contested disposals rank has gone down a bit this season, im thinking maybe with age some of these older players are maybe a tad slower than they used to be.

Net Contested Disposals Rank in 2022:

Bulldogs +8.3 per game (5th)
Geelong +0.8 per game (10th)

Last season however the Cats beat them in that area 163-147 in Contested Disposals.

Your right about the Geelong forwards, think they are better than the Dogs defence.

Bulldogs midfield are better than the Geelong mids at the moment.

Geelong defence and Bulldogs forwards are about par.

Geelong were lucky to beat them last year at the Cattery, Kick after the siren.
And yes your right, Bulldogs do deserve to be favourites.

 

[Robo87]

What are peoples thoughts on the eagles +39.5

Yes they are atrocious but expected to be wet in Adelaide. Total points set at 148.5 currently. Under might be a good play also.

Interested to hear thoughts of some crows fans on here.

Eagles also won the past 5 meetings between the 2 sides although that’s pretty irrelevant

I agree with your view re rain. Crows line -39.5 seem too high for the conditions and goalscoring accuracy issues.
I went and backed crows at -26.5 line on the weekend, but I won't be letting that ride by itself now, will go for a middle with eagles +39.5 due to the rain keeping the contest and scores closer imo.
Adding to this Crows lately are not a team that pose a threat to blow teams out the water imo, so WC +39.5 seems a reasonable option.

 

[BloodRet]

Hope they can keep it close-ish lol

 

[Del125763]

Hope they can keep it close-ish lolView attachment 1414485

Im on Geelong to win in a H2H but feel a bit less confident about that part of the leg after reviewing the game into a bit more detail. Good luck , just 3 legs away!

 

[demon_fanatic]

Bailey Williams 15+/AGS @ $5.5 tab.

Looking comfortable playing up on the wing in recent weeks. He's had 8 scoring shots in the last 3 rounds and cleared 15 in all of them.

great find!! why are we getting 5.50 for a multi that has the legs at AGS 1.90 and 15 touches 1.30 lol is that a glitch and does this happen often at tab?? I chucked in close 1.60 AGS and Williams 15 touches and it goes back to odds it should be 2.20 lol.... 5.50 is lovely!!

 

[demon_fanatic]

Cam Guthrie tab $4 for a goal is nice (2.85 and 2.65 at neds/365) Libba $3.10 tab also (2.25 neds 2.55 b365) both like floating forward and are always in the action... Guthrie kicked one vs Saints at Marvel and has gone 0.1 the past two games and is getting a huge amount of the ball.. $4 is great odds! Libba goaled in 2 of the past 4 games played..

guthrie also $2.30 (goes to 2.40 if you add 25 touches) tab for 30 touches, with 34 and 38 past two games.. the 38 came last week minus dangerfield.. yes the dogs Monopolize the ball a lot but the cats could go into that chip mode here so he could get some good cheapies... 6.00 tab for 35 touches

Also taking guthrie 1.96 for 100 fantasy at neds... hes gone 126 (no dangerfield) 114, 78, 107, 100, 107.... 3.20 for 110 points

 

[NonPhixion]

great find!! why are we getting 5.50 for a multi that has the legs at AGS 1.90 and 15 touches 1.30 lol is that a glitch and does this happen often at tab?? I chucked in close 1.60 AGS and Williams 15 touches and it goes back to odds it should be 2.20 lol.... 5.50 is lovely!!

yeh that is absolutely bizarre. Hope they don't void it

 

[anabac]

Papley 2+ / Dees H2H @ $4.15 boosted Lads

Pap doesnt have the best record against the dees but no Buddy should see him get a couple under the belt easily

 

[Its not the coach]

great find!! why are we getting 5.50 for a multi that has the legs at AGS 1.90 and 15 touches 1.30 lol is that a glitch and does this happen often at tab?? I chucked in close 1.60 AGS and Williams 15 touches and it goes back to odds it should be 2.20 lol.... 5.50 is lovely!!

Williams ATG
Tom Stewart 20+ dis is @4.50 Tab

 

[demon_fanatic]

Williams ATG
Tom Stewart 20+ dis is @4.50 Tab

lol what is going on with their system hhaha.. guthrie smashed from $4 ags to 2.50 by the way

 

[Its not the coach]

lol what is going on with their system hhaha.. guthrie smashed from $4 ags to 2.50 by the way

Either Tab know something about Williams or it's a glitch, Multi him ATG with anyone disposals and the odds are filthy good hahaha

 

[sneak]

I agree with your view re rain. Crows line -39.5 seem too high for the conditions and goalscoring accuracy issues.
I went and backed crows at -26.5 line on the weekend, but I won't be letting that ride by itself now, will go for a middle with eagles +39.5 due to the rain keeping the contest and scores closer imo.
Adding to this Crows lately are not a team that pose a threat to blow teams out the water imo, so WC +39.5 seems a reasonable option.

Yeah already on
3u Adel vs wce under 150.5/ wce +39.5. @3.27
2u melb vs Syd under 156.5/ Syd +23.5
@3.5
2u haw vs Coll under 170.5
@1.88
Tuesday odds based on weather forecast lol

 

[jikost]

Yeah I think it's a glitch and when you use Williams AGS as part of a SGM, the system has him at like $4 to kick a goal for some reason. For example Williams AGS/Cameron AGS is $4.2 despite Cameron being like $1.02 for a goal.

 

[bulletride]

Yeah I think it's a glitch and when you use Williams AGS as part of a SGM, the system has him at like $4 to kick a goal for some reason. For example Williams AGS/Cameron AGS is $4.2 despite Cameron being like $1.02 for a goal.

Yeah they've removed him from the market now. Was fun while it lasted

 

[jikost]

Yeah they've removed him from the market now. Was fun while it lasted

Got about 10 multi's going with Williams AGS in them lol. He better kick one.

 

[bluebob1]

Yeah already on
3u Adel vs wce under 150.5/ wce +39.5. @3.27
2u melb vs Syd under 156.5/ Syd +23.5
@3.5
2u haw vs Coll under 170.5
@1.88
Tuesday odds based on weather forecast lol

I like ade vs wce under 150.5 can see West Coast only scoring around 50 points maybe less so cant see adelaide scoring 100. Been raining all week.

Reilly Obrien over 20 disposals at $1.97 SB and over 25 disposals at $5 SB. Had 28 disposals last week following 38 in the SANFL the week before. WCE rucks look weak and i think he may dominate. When do the fantasy options go up and which bookie is best for fantasy (i dont normally bet on AFL fantasy) as i fancy him to rack up the points. Had 7 tackles last week which i could see being repeated in the wet.

 

[Del125763]

great find!! why are we getting 5.50 for a multi that has the legs at AGS 1.90 and 15 touches 1.30 lol is that a glitch and does this happen often at tab?? I chucked in close 1.60 AGS and Williams 15 touches and it goes back to odds it should be 2.20 lol.... 5.50 is lovely!!

I cant seem to find Bailey Williams 15+ Disposals at TAB. Am I missing something or have they pulled it down?

 

[bulletride]

I cant seem to find Bailey Williams 15+ Disposals at TAB. Am I missing something or have they pulled it down?

It's still there under the 15+ disposal market but they've fixed the glitch now

Sent from my M2102J20SG using Tapatalk

 

[Del125763]

I like ade vs wce under 150.5 can see West Coast only scoring around 50 points maybe less so cant see adelaide scoring 100. Been raining all week.

Reilly Obrien over 20 disposals at $1.97 SB and over 25 disposals at $5 SB. Had 28 disposals last week following 38 in the SANFL the week before. WCE rucks look weak and i think he may dominate. When do the fantasy options go up and which bookie is best for fantasy (i dont normally bet on AFL fantasy) as i fancy him to rack up the points. Had 7 tackles last week which i could see being repeated in the wet.

PointsBet are the number 1 for AFL Fantasy (and no I dont work for them)

2nd for me would be Ladbrokes/Neds

3rd would bet BetRight

 

[bluebob1]

I cant seem to find Bailey Williams 15+ Disposals at TAB. Am I missing something or have they pulled it down?

It is back to $2.70 now combined so they have fixed the glitch by the looks