AFL 2022 AFL Round 14

[balmainforever]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[srobbo]

Budwah 3+
Marshall 2+
Amon, Rozee 25+

$18 boosted NEDS

Cheers for the wayward kicking bud, but made up for it with Giants/Dogs. Can’t wait to have 50 bets on Suns/Crows.

 

[NonPhixion]

Nah I eat T bone steak. Stop being a troll you piece of s**t

plenty of spurious campaigners like him around mate. Best to just ignore em.

 

[BloodRet]

Rankine 3 walker 3 Rachele
@25 sb

Fog 3 Rankine 2 Casboult 2 Chol 2
@41

Rachele 3 mcadam 2 walker 2 chol 2
@80

Rachele 5 @181

 

[Its not the coach]

Rankine 3 walker 3 Rachele
@25 sb

Fog 3 Rankine 2 Casboult 2 Chol 2
@41

Rachele 3 mcadam 2 walker 2 chol 2
@80

Rachele 5 @181

I like them tailing, Really like Rachele back and refreshed 2+3+4+@4,12.50,51

 

[BloodRet]

I like them tailing, Really like Rachele back and refreshed 2+3+4+@4,12.50,51

Pretty good odds for him , usually sitting around 2.20 for 2

 

[Moonatic77]

To be fair Essendon in the early 2000's when they were a super power team, played a pretty fast track bully style of footy. End- to-end football. Most of the times the ball was in the Bombers pocket.

The Essendon of 1999-2001 was a once in a generation side. Its clear that their coaching style is rubbing off on the players and they have a free licence to attack. Highly suggest if you didnt watch much of the Bombers in 2000, to get a few videos and watch them in that season. Pretty amazing side that one. I think they had the most dominant season , since ive been alive anyway.

Probably gotta make most of what attacking talent they have given playing the slow-go mode hasnt worked for them in the past.

Carlton in 95 and Geelong 08 (although didn't win it) would be the only sides to rival Ess 00 in my time of watching. But yeah I remember that Ess side that year very well. They destroyed every opponent in their finals campaign too. As a neutral supporter they were great to watch and you just knew they were going to win the flag from mid season onwards.

 

[Del125763]

For the goalscorer bets guys,

im just trying to build and work out a Sportsbet algorithm and how they determine their odds but have odds on goalscorers bets ranging from $3-$10 always gone up in increments of 0.05?

eg $3, $3.35, $5.50, $9.75?

 

[Its not the coach]

Pretty good odds for him , usually sitting around 2.20 for 2

Also Backed Rankine early in the week 3+4+@4.75,13. So hopefully that campaigner can finally kick staight

 

[BloodRet]

Also Backed Rankine early in the week 3+4+@4.75,13. So hopefully that campaigner can finally kick staight

Does heads in that campaigner, tomorrow could be the day he repays what’s ours

 

[jikost]

Brandon Ellis

4

Brandon Ellis

Age

32

Ht

181cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.7

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.4

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

18.4

4star

K

12.9

5star

HB

5.6

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

2.3

3star

CL

1.4

4star

D

15.0

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.2

4star

CL

1.0

3star

AGS @ $2.33 b365 - Really pushing forward lately and has gone 1.1, 2.0 and 1.0 in the last 3 weeks. Had 7 disposals in or near the Suns forward 50 last match and I'm backing him to kick one again tomorrow against an average opposition.

 

[BloodRet]

Brandon Ellis AGS @ $2.33 b365 - Really pushing forward lately and has gone 1.1, 2.0 and 1.0 in the last 3 weeks. Had 7 disposals in or near the Suns forward 50 last match and I'm backing him to kick one again tomorrow against an average opposition.

View attachment 1427394

Tailed 3 @41 pb

 

[Man of leisure]

For the goalscorer bets guys,

im just trying to build and work out a Sportsbet algorithm and how they determine their odds but have odds on goalscorers bets ranging from $3-$10 always gone up in increments of 0.05?

eg $3, $3.35, $5.50, $9.75?

It’s all a fugazi my brother. I can tell your a high iq fellow, but you are getting lost in the mire. Try to relax please. I don’t want you to explode yourself.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Brandon Ellis AGS @ $2.33 b365 - Really pushing forward lately and has gone 1.1, 2.0 and 1.0 in the last 3 weeks. Had 7 disposals in or near the Suns forward 50 last match and I'm backing him to kick one again tomorrow against an average opposition.

View attachment 1427394

I like it, tailed with small bets for 2+ 3+ @ $9.50, $41 on pb

 

[Del125763]

It’s all a fugazi my brother. I can tell your a high iq fellow, but you are getting lost in the mire. Try to relax please. I don’t want you to explode yourself.View attachment 1427403

I mean I am a bit of a percentage guy but playing around further tonight with the calculator, fair to say that there is no algorithm or formula who SB determine their odds.

take this for example

Casboult to Score 3+ Goals = $3.40
Keays 3+ Goals = $34, Hately 3+ Goals= $34, Soligo 3+ Goals= $34, Dawson 3+ Goals= $34, McHenry 3+ Goals= $34, Laird 3+ Goals = $34


if you put a SGM involving goals:
Casboult 3+, Keays 3+ : 191
Casboult 3+, Hately 3+ : 181
Casboult 3+, Soligo 3+ : 83
Casboult 3+, Dawson 3+ : 171
Casboult 3+, McHenry 3+ : 84
Casboult 3+, Laird 3+ : 301

I guess maybe in answering my own question, they probably have a cap on 3+ Goals, but there is a pecking order with their 2+ Goals markets, which is why McHenry and Soligo are shorter. That never hit me until now.

Looking at that further and yes I am being picky with my odds but you would want at least 100/1 on The Casboult/Soligo combo and Casboult/McHenry combo listed there.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Credit where its due, sb refunded my bonus bets which I had place on Teakle (or whatever tf his name is).

I went into my account and saw $50 worth of bonus bets, and was like wtf, where'd they come from?

Only explanation is they refunded the Teakle bets due to his injury.

Fair play sb, fair play

Now I feel less bad about losing money to you so far this season.

I still think your company is a cancer on society and you make most of your profits from preying on compulsive gamblers.

But in reality if you weren't taking their (our) money, somebody else would be, so I'm not here to judge.

Let's just hope and prey Rachele kicks 4+ tomorrow and you rue giving me those bonus bets back

 

[ShaunWDT]

 

[anabac]

plenty of spurious campaigners like him around mate. Best to just ignore em.

Just had to google spurious. Bit harsh!

 

[dontlimitme]

yeah the rachele prices are delicious, all over them, should be sunny today at metricon as well.

also on jeffrey for 3/4/5

 

[dontlimitme]

also like fogs at his prices

 

[mac23]

Chol 2+
Casboult 2+
Rankine 2+
Walker 2+
McAdam 2+
Rachele AGS
$38.50 SB

It’s that simple boys.

 

[mac23]

Also tailing Rachele cos degeneracy loves company.

 

[Del125763]

i Think this game will be a bit more closer than the odds suggest personally.

Both midfields are about par but feel like the Suns can stretch the Crows at the back.

Going to do Same Game Parlays
Milera 2+ Goals
Fogarty 2+ Goals
Ainsworth 2+ Goals
@ 58.04

McHenry 2+ Goals
Rowe 2+ Goals
Holman 2+ Goals
@ 133.68

 

[fpm84]

 

[Barralupo]

Following the Rankine and Rachele trains

 

[Nuggetz]

On the Rachele and Ellis trains. Also chucked in Dawson as he can sneakily snag goals. On ellis/rachele/Dawson 2+ each @251 on sb as the fun one today.