AFL 2022 AFL Round 19

[balmainforever]

 

[anabac]

Happy to roll some of this weekends winnings into Freo at $2. Both sides with mixed form last month but Rich losing to GC and North last 2 weeks is hardly form to be fave against a top 4 side. Happy to take even money on the purple

 

[X_box_X]

Happy to roll some of this weekends winnings into Freo at $2. Both sides with mixed form last month but Rich losing to GC and North last 2 weeks is hardly form to be fave against a top 4 side. Happy to take even money on the purple

Yeah I don't mind this if you're taking a straight out h2h. Richmond aren't that great at Marvel either.

 

[Johanpetro]

Gryan Miers

32

Gryan Miers

Age

26

Ht

179cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.4

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

15.3

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.6

3star

G

0.9

4star

D

14.4

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

6.0

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.2

4star

$2.40 ags on TAB is value. Will be around $1.60- $1.80 most other places when markets are open in guessing

 

[X_box_X]

Freo should be -5.5 point favourites against Richmond.

It's like the person setting the odds hasn't considered this match is at Marvel. Richmond beING a -2.5 favourite would be fair if it was at the MCG.


Tigers at Marvel

2022
Lost to Saints by 33
Lost to Roos by 4

2021
Defeated Saints by 86
Defeated Giants by 4
Lost to Suns by 10
Lost to Giants by 39

2020
Lost to Saints by 26

2019
Defeated Swans by 22
Lost to Dogs by 47
Lost to Kangas by 37
Defeated Saints by 33


A 4-7 record since 2019 for a team that has won two flags in that time is hardly inspiring. They've lost their past four there. The last win they had was against the Giants in 2021 which they were very, very lucky to win.

Surely Freo being a top four team, and the match being played effectively at a neutral venue, means Freo should be at least six point favourites? Maybe I'm missing something.

Freo are 2-1 at Marvel this year. Their two wins were very convincing against Essendon and St Kilda. They lost to Carlton there but I'd easily argue Carlton are a much better team than Richmond at Marvel.

What is understated is Matthew Boyd

Matthew Boyd

Age

42

Ht

184cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.0

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.4

5star

MG

452.0

5star

No current season stats available

D

7.0

2star

K

3.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.0

3star

and Bob Murphy being assistant coaches. I'd argue there's no other coaches or assistant coaches in the league who know Marvel Stadium better than those two. Hugely beneficial and something most people wouldn't take into consideration.

 

[Atavistic]

Buddy train?

 

[X_box_X]

View attachment 1449834

Buddy train?

Not as much as he used to is what I'm hearing.

He might join in for the main session but other than that his training load is quite light.

 

[gordo2016]

Gryan Miers $2.40 ags on TAB is value. Will be around $1.60- $1.80 most other places when markets are open in guessing

How many has he kicked lately?

 

[Atavistic]

Josh Ward got 34 disposals last week and is 18-1 for 30+ at B365.

 

[GROTTO]

How many has he kicked lately?

Shot at goal in past 6/7 games.

Kicked a goal at least in 3 of those. With a bag of 3+

Overall shot at goal in 10/14 games in 2022.

Kicked a goal at least in 4/14 in 2022.

 

[Atavistic]

Not as much as he used to is what I'm hearing.

He might join in for the main session but other than that his training load is quite light.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Josh Ward got 34 disposals last week and is 18-1 for 30+ at B365.

Maginness still $9.50 for 20, had 22 on weekend

Multi both together

 

[GROTTO]

View attachment 1449853

 

[jikost]

These 2 are decent value on tab atm.

Ugle Hagen AGS/ Jamie Elliot AGS @ $2.24
Ugle Hagen 2+/ Jamie Elliot 2+ @ $12.37
Ugle Hagen 3+/ Jamie Elliot 3+ @ $119

 

[jikost]

De Koning AGS @ $2.2 365 - Pittonet back this week, so De Koning will play the third tall/relief ruck role.

2+ @ $7.75 sb
3+ @ $34

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Freo should be -5.5 point favourites against Richmond.

It's like the person setting the odds hasn't considered this match is at Marvel. Richmond beING a -2.5 favourite would be fair if it was at the MCG.


Tigers at Marvel

2022
Lost to Saints by 33
Lost to Roos by 4

2021
Defeated Saints by 86
Defeated Giants by 4
Lost to Suns by 10
Lost to Giants by 39

2020
Lost to Saints by 26

2019
Defeated Swans by 22
Lost to Dogs by 47
Lost to Kangas by 37
Defeated Saints by 33


A 4-7 record since 2019 for a team that has won two flags in that time is hardly inspiring. They've lost their past four there. The last win they had was against the Giants in 2021 which they were very, very lucky to win.

Surely Freo being a top four team, and the match being played effectively at a neutral venue, means Freo should be at least six point favourites? Maybe I'm missing something.

Freo are 2-1 at Marvel this year. Their two wins were very convincing against Essendon and St Kilda. They lost to Carlton there but I'd easily argue Carlton are a much better team than Richmond at Marvel.

What is understated is Matthew Boyd and Bob Murphy being assistant coaches. I'd argue there's no other coaches or assistant coaches in the league who know Marvel Stadium better than those two. Hugely beneficial and something most people wouldn't take into consideration.

Yep, my model has Freo -5.6

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Cumberland ok odds for goals on 365

 

[GROTTO]

Yep, my model has Freo -5.6

Freo from $2.01 into $1.90 now at most books.

 

[Man of leisure]

Cumberland ok odds for goals on 365

I concur. Has kicked 2.3 and 3.4 in the 2 matches where he has taken the field. No Lynch yet and this guy is a much more viable target than Richmonds other spud small forwards. Bee lines the goals as well which we love as punters. Sexy heat maps also.
2+@$2
3+@$4.25
4+@$11
5+@$35
6+@$125

 

[Man of leisure]

Andrew Brayshaw

8

Andrew Brayshaw

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.3

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

2.1

4star

D

18.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.8

5star

CL

3.1

4star

D

12.6

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.8

3star

30+@$2 TAB

Playing a side this week who do not, have not and never will tag any player as long as Hardwick is coach.
Brayshaw averages 31 per game this year and had 39 on the tiges last time.

 

[BloodRet]

Hawthorn -18.5 looks nice imo. Richmond kicked 22 behinds. No disrespect to north, Richmond were ordinary and deserved to lose but North easily could’ve been blown out by 40+ again if Richmond kicked straight. North were also incredibly accurate and zurhaar kicked 6.
Like Connor McDonald 2.15 and 5.50 at B365 coming off 2.1 last weekend.
Impey 1.50, 3.40 NEDS looks set in his forward role. Have mixed them both around in some multies. I should just have units on them as singles but I chase dopamine and heartbreak on multies that’ll bail out before they even reach em

 

[Man of leisure]

Short 20+/Sicily20+@$1.59 TAB
($1.23) ($1.30)

Short has cleared 16/17 this year and Sicily has 17/17 this year. This bet would have got up 16/17 so far this year.

 

[BloodRet]

Amartey 1.73 ags, 4.60 NEDS. 2 goals against freo, now up against easier opposition. I think this is a great price, rain the only worry

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Good luck to Cumberland backers, I'm not buying tickets though for two reasons:

1) His two matches so far were against weak opposition, whereas Freo are top 4 bound.

2) I don't want to sit through another Freo game of disappointment for train backers.

So I'm staying far, far away. Hope for you fellas I live to regret it, Ziebell style

 

[dontlimitme]

Good luck to Cumberland backers, I'm not buying tickets though for two reasons:

1) His two matches so far were against weak opposition, whereas Freo are top 4 bound.

2) I don't want to sit through another Freo game of disappointment for train backers.

So I'm staying far, far away. Hope for you fellas I live to regret it, Ziebell style

agreed should be a much tougher time vs the freo backline, odds seem a bit short imo