AFL 2022 AFL Round 20

[EFL Boy]

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Don’t tail it then. Simple as

I will be giving this one a miss. Surely discussion is still encouraged.

Best of luck those on.

 

[NonPhixion]

Has kicked 2+ four times from 15 games this season, 3+ once. Probably playing in a team losing by 40+. Feels like bait to be honest.

Thing is though, he was playing down back a bit earlier in the season. Last month and a bit he has been a permanent forward.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Thing is though, he was playing down back a bit earlier in the season. Last month and a bit he has been a permanent forward.

Which games did he play defence out of interest? Not something I can recall and has been named forward on the team sheet every week.

 

[BloodRet]

Which games did he play defence out of interest? Not something I can recall and has been named forward on the team sheet every week.

Played down back against the Lions in round 8 and a few games around that time he got quite a bit of ball in the defensive 50. Usually plays as a swing man/up the wings and pushing forward a lot but the last 2 games he’s been living inside the forward 50

 

[NYRB]

Cross Sport Multi (AFL x Golf for this weekend)
1.
Brisbane Lions to beat Richmond
Daan Huizing to Finish Top 10 in the Hero Open 2022 in Scotland

Odds: $20


2.

West Coast Eagles to cover with the +34.5 handicap v Suns
Jonathan Caldwell to Finish Top 20 in the Hero Open 2022 in Scotland

Odds: $22.20

3.
Patrick Reed to Win the LIV Golf Tournament in Bedminster
Fremantle v Melbourne Over 144.5 pts (advisable anything above 149.5 pts)

Odds: $30.40

 

[Man of leisure]

I will be giving this one a miss. Surely discussion is still encouraged.

Best of luck those on.

Discussion is encouraged, that is one of the reasons we post on a fomum. your opinion along with all other posters on this esteemed board is valued, however this is a great value bet by every possible metric.

Thanks for the well wishes

 

[teamlenny]

Waterman played back a couple games but has been permanent forward for the rest, the reason he hasn't kicked many goals is because Eagles ******* suck.

They're in for 10 goals this week so the $15 for 3 is just about right, if you think Eagles will be more competitive then its probably overs, there are worse bets.

 

[HTPunter]

Some early plays on fantasy points players, finding more value in the "feast or famine" types in good match ups overall.

Half backs v Crows - Hardwick 32, Daicos 40, Blakey 26 in last 3 weeks. Docherty (110-130) and Saad (80-120)

Not out yet:
Papley v GWS - hoping to bet from 70-110+
Ainsworth v West Coast - 70-100+
Durham v North - 80-100+

Bont and Gawn looked real good last week too, Bont the last 2 weeks. Reckon he's value right up to 140+ if on offer, while Gawn might be good for goals

 

[ash_1050]

Have also jumped on the Eagles bandwagon at average odds of $6.20 on Betfair.

May look to lay it off mid game depending on how things unfold.

 

[NYRB]

Played down back against the Lions in round 8 and a few games around that time he got quite a bit of ball in the defensive 50. Usually plays as a swing man/up the wings and pushing forward a lot but the last 2 games he’s been living inside the forward 50





View attachment 1458339View attachment 1458340

Always worthwhile checking the heat maps.

I got burnt by the Giants with Callum Brown labelled in forward last week. 1 hour before teams were confirmed, he was labelled on the interchange bench. (which should have been the hint that he wasnt going to play in the forward line)

After kicking 4 goals against the Hawks, the following game for some weird reason, he played 84% Defensive Half, 16% Offensive Half.

 

[teamlenny]

Always worthwhile checking the heat maps.

I got burnt by the Giants with Callum Brown labelled in forward last week. 1 hour before teams were confirmed, he was labelled on the interchange bench. (which should have been the hint that he wasnt going to play in the forward line)

sorry how was this a hint?
He was named on the bench vs Hawks, they named a defender there vs Carlton, nothing suggested Brown would be playing back off the team sheet

 

[BloodRet]

Himmelberg 90, 100 fantasy points @1.83, $3 NEDS

Has averaged over 100 points since his move down back. Same bet is 1.40 and 1.80 at pointsbet.

 

[HTPunter]

Dees give up some big uncontested mark numbers this year. Dockers take a lot. Took 130 marks total last time but the killer was 17 contested, that's what hurt the Dees, they shouldn't be too worried about uncontested marks in the backline.

Luke Ryan took advantage with 137 fantasy points by taking 13 uncontested marks and the Dees are very inaccurate so plenty of kick ins too (2nd most in the comp per game). I don't see too many reasons the Dees should focus on locking that sort of stat whoring down. He's $19 on pointsbet for 130+ fantasy points (once this year) , $10 for 120 (3 times this year) when the likes of Serong and Brodie are at lower odds with not as good a scoring history this year in terms of peaks.

 

[HTPunter]

Young and Chapman I'll be taking too.

Gawn for goals 1-4.

 

[NYRB]

sorry how was this a hint?
He was named on the bench vs Hawks, they named a defender there vs Carlton, nothing suggested Brown would be playing back off the team sheet

The thing is with team sheets, it’s usually only 1 hour pre- game are teams confirmed in their positions. He was listed around the centre half forward line pre-game .(Eg on Thursday team sheets)

There are usually two lineup announcements , lineups over 1 hour prior to a game, and confined lined up and positions exactly 1 hour out from the game. ( I only learnt that this year having followed the game for around 30 years)

 

[NYRB]

it was my bad for thinking that Callum Brown would be playing in midfield /defence. I think that may have thrown off a lot of people given on Thursday team sheets he was listed forward.

 

[teamlenny]

Dees give up some big uncontested mark numbers this year. Dockers take a lot. Took 130 marks total last time but the killer was 17 contested, that's what hurt the Dees, they shouldn't be too worried about uncontested marks in the backline.

Luke Ryan took advantage with 137 fantasy points by taking 13 uncontested marks and the Dees are very inaccurate so plenty of kick ins too (2nd most in the comp per game). I don't see too many reasons the Dees should focus on locking that sort of stat whoring down. He's $19 on pointsbet for 130+ fantasy points (once this year) , $10 for 120 (3 times this year) when the likes of Serong and Brodie are at lower odds with not as good a scoring history this year in terms of peaks.

weather doesn't look good unfortunately

 

[teamlenny]

The thing is with team sheets, it’s usually only 1 hour pre- game are teams confirmed in their positions. He was listed around the centre half forward line pre-game .(Eg on Thursday team sheets)

There are usually two lineup announcements , lineups over 1 hour prior to a game, and confined lined up and positions exactly 1 hour out from the game. ( I only learnt that this year having followed the game for around 30 years)

Haynes was named CHF and played as a defender as expected, I know how the team sheets work but you still got to work it out a bit yourself, nothing indicated he was playing back but GWS are going to be throwing up curveballs for rest of the season I think.

Anyway way too much time wasted on some bloke who probably ends up back in the VFL soon

 

[HTPunter]

The thing is with team sheets, it’s usually only 1 hour pre- game are teams confirmed in their positions. He was listed around the centre half forward line pre-game .(Eg on Thursday team sheets)

There are usually two lineup announcements , lineups over 1 hour prior to a game, and confined lined up and positions exactly 1 hour out from the game. ( I only learnt that this year having followed the game for around 30 years)

Those line ups an hour before are still not "rules" I.e. Any individual player can still line up anywhere they want, within 6 6 6 rules.

 

[HTPunter]

weather doesn't look good unfortunately

Doesn't look too bad for me, forecast wise at game time?? Also might help with the Dees kicking behinds

 

[X_box_X]

Have also jumped on the Eagles bandwagon at average odds of $6.20 on Betfair.

May look to lay it off mid game depending on how things unfold.

Just be very, very, very careful. I can see Josh Kennedy being rested which will totally * up your plans.

 

[Johanpetro]

Just be very, very, very careful. I can see Josh Kennedy being rested which will totally * up your plans.

He was just confirmed out

 

[NYRB]

The West reporting Willie Rioli

15

Willie Rioli

Age

28

Ht

175cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

and Nic Nat will be inclusions this week. Eagles saving J Kennedy for his farewell from the AFL for one of the home games.

 

[hot dogs]

On the topic of JK being out. I'm having a go at Barrass for 1-4 goals at $3.60, $23, $201 and $1000 on 365. Simpson clearly wants to give it a go. Probably unlikely, but if there's going to be a week to do it then this is it.

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