AFL 2022 AFL Round 20

[_ASP3X]

am i selecting it right, same game multi, disposals, 20+?

Too slow. Books will change prices on these markets real quick, especially early in the week. Would only take a few $10 bets for those prices to get smashed in, which is why you can’t get those odds now.

 

[Crock Hunter]

Think I have a nice play.
Callum Brown 15+ and 20+ @$2.75/$14 (Bet365)
Completely different role off half back last week. Had 17 touches against the blues and can see a similar role for him this week. Think it is worth a play given role change for sure.

 

[dontlimitme]

Papley 2+/Dixon 2+/Higgins 2+/Gunston 2+ @ 11.64 (BOOSTED SB)

also a stab on all of them 3+ @ 163.29 (BOOSTED SB)

 

[Man of leisure]

All over West Coast at $6.25 against the Suns. Suns should be favourites but West Coast have been competitive as of late and likely get back Natanui and Rioli. Gold Coast not world beaters deserving of being $1.12 favourites

 

[Peter Doherty]

Carlton line (-13)
Saad 20+
Cerra 20+
Berry 20+
Soligo 15+
Walker AGS

$11.25 on SB.

 

[Crock Hunter]

Think JHF is wrong price at Bet365.
$4.25 for 20+ and $18 for 25+ (more the former)
Has been interrupted this year with an injury and a suspension + a game in the VFL. At the start of the year he had disposal totals of: 20, 21, 23, 18, 19, 20 in 6 consecutive matches. Since coming back he’s only gone 12 and 11 - but he still attends 30% of CBA’s and having watched on Saturday, he had a heap of almost disposals where he just got caught or fumbled. With North done for the year they will 100% give him more midfield time and the bombers aren’t exactly red hot at defending….
Marvel suits and his one game in the VFL yielded 29 touches - he’s definitely capable of finding the pill.

 

[X_box_X]

English at $2.20 for 20+ disposals w Neds looks good.

He has cleared in 9/11 matches and the two misses came after he returned from injury with a backup ruckman in the team. Stanley out this week can only be a good thing.

FWIW, the same bet is paying $1.90 w Sportsbet and $2 w TAB.

If you're looking at SGM, I'd even look at including English for 15+ disposals (whichever book offers the best price). Anything above $1.25 seems decent enough.

 

[NYRB]

All over West Coast at $6.25 against the Suns. Suns should be favourites but West Coast have been competitive as of late and likely get back Natanui and Rioli. Gold Coast not world beaters deserving of being $1.12 favourites

Ive tailed Ive taken a bit of $6.20 at the Smarkets Betting Exchange . Might look to trade in-play if it gets to a lower price.

Reckon the Eagles can maybe hit evens in-play

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

All over West Coast at $6.25 against the Suns. Suns should be favourites but West Coast have been competitive as of late and likely get back Natanui and Rioli. Gold Coast not world beaters deserving of being $1.12 favourites

Average losing margin of 37.5 across their last 4 games. Is that really competitive? They have been in patches but generally can't run out 4 quarters. Metricon has been a very strong home ground advantage for the suns this year.

 

[Man of leisure]

Average losing margin of 37.5 across their last 4 games. Is that really competitive? They have been in patches but generally can't run out 4 quarters. Metricon has been a very strong home ground advantage for the suns this year.

That losing margin is heavily skewed by being belted by Carlton. They were in the game in the last quarter against Richmond, Hawthorn and Stkilda before fading out so I’d say they’ve been competitive. Gold Coast have have won 1 of their last 5 and it was after the siren. West Coast are likely to get back a host of stars in pivotal positions that should make it hard for the Gold Coast to capitalise on their strength in the midfield(Natanui, maybe Yeo). In addition to Rioli. West Coast key position stocks look decent. The Eagles are a far better chance than 1 in 6.25 to win this game.

 

[demon_fanatic]

I know they have won 9 in a row by small margins and due for a loss but I actually feel like this will come vs Dees (predicting Dees to win next two with lever back to somewhat steady the ship) but Pies with huge top 4 aspirations now for and I feel now that Port are basically eliminated there will be a slight letdown in this game... love the pies around 1.75-1.80 which I should find on betfair later in week

 

[eighties]

Average losing margin of 37.5 across their last 4 games. Is that really competitive? They have been in patches but generally can't run out 4 quarters. Metricon has been a very strong home ground advantage for the suns this year.

West Coast aren't a bad bet. Early afternoon game ensures it wont be slippery which has helped our gameplan this year. We saw what Essendon did to us on a dry fast deck.

Also Ballard is out who is one of our best players down back. Backline is now missing Ballard, Budarick, Powell and Weller. We are really short on talent back there at the moment.

Will be closer than the odds are suggesting I think.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

No odds for Josh Carmichael goals anywhere?

What did he open up at on 365?

 

[snags_44]

I know they have won 9 in a row by small margins and due for a loss but I actually feel like this will come vs Dees (predicting Dees to win next two with lever back to somewhat steady the ship) but Pies with huge top 4 aspirations now for and I feel now that Port are basically eliminated there will be a slight letdown in this game... love the pies around 1.75-1.80 which I should find on betfair later in week

If ya gonna take the pies might as well take them 1-39. Only beaten a dismal crows on the G in round 2 by more than 39 (42). Only playing 2 good quarters a game at the moment. Power would consider themselves still a chance with a win with tigers at home, bombers then the crows to follow. I don’t see them making it but they might

 

[Man of leisure]

West Coast aren't a bad bet. Early afternoon game ensures it wont be slippery which has helped our gameplan this year. We saw what Essendon did to us on a dry fast deck.

Also Ballard is out who is one of our best players down back. Backline is now missing Ballard, Budarick, Powell and Weller. We are really short on talent back there at the moment.

Will be closer than the odds are suggesting I think.

In light of these outs I will once again be returning to the Waterman trough.
Waterman 3+@$15 SB
4+@$52
5+@$201

Much shorter at other books. Is $3.25,$7.50,$21 for 3,4,5 on TAB

 

[NYRB]

Gold Coast be hoping teams in 8th, 9th and 10th all dont win more than 2 games in the run home- which I think think is a strong possibility of happening.

Suns have a nice run home and the results of the games on Saturday will be a 'motivational' factor in their performance on Sunday.

 

[BloodRet]

In light of these outs I will once again be returning to the Waterman trough.
Waterman 3+@$15 SB
4+@$52
5+@$201

Much shorter at other books. Is $3.25,$7.50,$21 for 3,4,5 on TAB

Tailed

 

[NYRB]

Tailed

Waterman 3+ Goals suspended on SB

 

[NYRB]

all good . its now back on site.

 

[Johanpetro]

In light of these outs I will once again be returning to the Waterman trough.
Waterman 3+@$15 SB
4+@$52
5+@$201

Much shorter at other books. Is $3.25,$7.50,$21 for 3,4,5 on TAB

These odds are crazy imo. He’s between $2.70 and $3.20 to kick 3 goals on 3 other bookies I’ve looked at. And around $1.60 for 2 compared to $4.50 on SportsBet. I’m surprised the odds are still up tbh.

 

[The Brownlow Guru]

Has kicked 2+ four times from 15 games this season, 3+ once. Probably playing in a team losing by 40+. Feels like bait to be honest.

 

[GROTTO]

Has kicked 2+ four times from 15 games this season, 3+ once. Probably playing in a team losing by 40+. Feels like bait to be honest.

Think of it as a luxury tax.

 

[Man of leisure]

Has kicked 2+ four times from 15 games this season, 3+ once. Probably playing in a team losing by 40+. Feels like bait to be honest.

Don’t tail it then. Simple as

 

[NYRB]

Has kicked 2+ four times from 15 games this season, 3+ once. Probably playing in a team losing by 40+. Feels like bait to be honest.

are you team lenny in disguise?

 

[Johanpetro]

Has kicked 2+ four times from 15 games this season, 3+ once. Probably playing in a team losing by 40+. Feels like bait to be honest.

Has had 2+ scoring shots in 5 out of last 6 games including 2 and 3 goals in his last 3 games. Plus a chance Kennedy is rested this week. I’ll take those odds everyday but to each their own.