AFL 2022 AFL Round 23

[GROTTO]

For today's edition of completely dumb reasoning to justify a bet, all of Ash Johnson's performances so far have been roughly proportionate to the crowd he's played in front of. Today's crowd should top all of these so based purely on that I'm taking him for 3/4/5 @ $4.60/$12/$34 on SB and 6 @ $101 on TAB.

2.1 - 30,110
3.1 - 72,402
1.1 - 40,716
4.0 - 70,596
1.1 - 44,659

TAILED

TAILED.

We're riding this all the way home, A Train departing MCG at 2.20pm LOCAL.

 

[GROTTO]

I don’t know why but Libba For a few snags

1,2,3 @2.27, 9, 46 he loves those random snaps in windy conditions always kicks 2 in Ballarat and we’ll tasi is pretty much the same

Weightman 3-5 @3.40, 7.75, 19

My only problem with that shit hole in Tassie is that last year these two went 9 goals to 5.

 

[ph4z3]

Because goaltrains are fun.

imho it all goes back to dontlimitme loading up on Kennedy for 3/4/5 back in 2020

He taught us that you could use the sgm trick with sb

Ever since then, this place has basically been a rumour board for value tickets for train rides.

There are still some proper punters with genuine technical analysis here but most of us are just shameless degens chasing trains.

New here. What's this SGM trick?

 

[GROTTO]

New here. What's this SGM trick?

Stand on one leg and hold your breath and bet on the same player for 1,2,3,4,5 goals and press the booster button at the same time.

Your odds will magically pump up.

 

[dontlimitme]

Because goaltrains are fun.

imho it all goes back to dontlimitme loading up on Kennedy for 3/4/5 back in 2020

He taught us that you could use the sgm trick with sb

Ever since then, this place has basically been a rumour board for value tickets for train rides.

There are still some proper punters with genuine technical analysis here but most of us are just shameless degens chasing trains.

 

[Selim]

My only problem with that s**t hole in Tassie is that last year these two went 9 goals to 5.

Oh I remember to clear losing there last year cost us top 4 and I swear if it costs us finals this year smh

But saying that last year we had just lost Bruce the week before, no juh and naughton wasn’t in good form so I think we are much better suited to win this time

Also get this I’m a bulldog’s supporter and the rest of my family like brother and dad all Carlton supporters so this is gonna be a very interesting day aha

 

[GROTTO]

Also get this I’m a bulldog’s supporter and the rest of my family like brother and dad all Carlton supporters so this is gonna be a very interesting day aha

Would love the Dogs to win, mind you, if the Dogs lose, the floodgates will open for the Pies and their GS.

Blues would take the foot of the pedal probably after HT.

 

[Del125763]

I went into a bit more detail based on the Saints lowest and highest scores in 2022.



The Saints could kill 2 birds with 1 stone by just scoring their 80 odd points today. I cant see Sydney scoring 140+ points to get that Top 2 spot. Sydneys best chance of making the Top 2 id imagine would be to restrict the Saints to score of around mid 50's.

Ive also gone off the ladder using a decimal of 2 places, rather than the 1 listed by the AFL website. Just heard that on a forum somewhere that the AFL ladder , would go to 2 decimal places instead of 1 decimal place if teams were even on Points. (it does change the Swans points to get , for a few of those lines a bit out)

 

[Selim]

Would love the Dogs to win, mind you, if the Dogs lose, the floodgates will open for the Pies and their GS.

Blues would take the foot of the pedal probably after HT.

Collingwood and Carlton are those teams I never know who to do Carlton got 100 small forward who don’t do much but have amazing odds

And I’m torn if I wanna try ginnivan or Johnson atm

Look if we do lose and that leads to maybe bevo stepping away I’ll take that loss aha

 

[GROTTO]

And I’m torn if I wanna try ginnivan or Johnson atm

 

[Selim]

Your sick mate but I love it degen up today all out

But nah this was my first degen season of betting like I did betting last year but it was the casual sgm that never hit this year tho the trains method and being on here every weekend lowkey has made footy so much more fun aha

 

[GROTTO]

Your sick mate but I love it degen up today all out

But nah this was my first degen season of betting like I did betting last year but it was the casual sgm that never hit this year tho the trains method and being on here every weekend lowkey has made footy so much more fun aha

Get on ASH.

Gin may miss.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Sydney are $5 to in by 60+.

Somebody talk me out of loading up on it.

They already beat the Saints by 51 points earlier in the year.

A 60+ win guarantees a home qualifying final.

The Saints are done, and as crazy as it sounds, Mason Wood

32

Mason Wood

Age

32

Ht

192cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.3

2star

D

8.3

2star

K

2.7

1star

HB

5.7

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.3

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

15.8

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

out is a huge blow (I know, I know, but seriously).

 

[Del125763]

I know a fair amount of you guys are on goals in the Saints v Swans game.

I actually see it as a slow game, Sydneys best chance of making the Top 2 is for hoping it will be a low scoring game.

The Saints under Ratten, and marshalled in defence with Dougal Howard

20

Dougal Howard

Age

29

Ht

199cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

3.1

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

3star

MG

176.2

3star

D

9.9

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.7

4star

T

0.6

1star

MG

171.9

3star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.8

5star

MG

133.8

3star

, Sinclair, Wilkie, Paton and Battle , generally I find a hard team for opposition to crack.

The line as a I post this thread is 173.5 pts at Sportsbet but im not so sold that both teams will go gung ho in search for goals, even for a game under the roof.


Had Melbourne not thrashed Brisbane the other night, i think the requirement was for Sydney to win.(and it could have been a more assured open game) So the situation has changed a bit. Might a bit of food for thought.

 

[GROTTO]

Walsh is rumored to be OUT

 

[Del125763]

Walsh is rumored to be OUT

Thanks for that..also been mentioned around Twitter this morning.

 

[kicksome]

I remember studying preseason games for round 1, trying to find myself a mouncey2franklin type of bet.
I remember one guy for hawks kicking 0.4 in a praccy match, and thought if he gets a gig im going to bet him for goals.
Well its the last game of the year and hes getting his first game, and also named on the HFF

Ned long

AGS $2
2+ $12
3+ $51

all at pointsbet.

last day of the home and away, can we finish how it all started?

 

[GROTTO]

last day of the home and away, can we finish how it all started?

I lay in bed thinking about Rachele and his 5+ in R1.

They were the days

 

[Del125763]

How would it feel if Carlton got a draw today in their game and made the 8? A draw is a good result for Carlton today.

Odds are $79.94 on Sportsbet Powerprice.

I have to have a bit of insurance on that in case it happens.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I remember studying preseason games for round 1, trying to find myself a mouncey2franklin type of bet.
I remember one guy for hawks kicking 0.4 in a praccy match, and thought if he gets a gig im going to bet him for goals.
Well its the last game of the year and hes getting his first game, and also named on the HFF

Ned long

AGS $2
2+ $12
3+ $51

all at pointsbet.

last day of the home and away, can we finish how it all started?

TAILED.

 

[Selim]

Be

Get on ASH.

Gin may miss.

Best site to go with ash?

 

[Del125763]

I remember studying preseason games for round 1, trying to find myself a mouncey2franklin type of bet.
I remember one guy for hawks kicking 0.4 in a praccy match, and thought if he gets a gig im going to bet him for goals.
Well its the last game of the year and hes getting his first game, and also named on the HFF

Ned long

AGS $2
2+ $12
3+ $51

all at pointsbet.

last day of the home and away, can we finish how it all started?

Into $7 and $34 now on PointsBet for 2+ and 3+

 

[Selim]

I remember studying preseason games for round 1, trying to find myself a mouncey2franklin type of bet.
I remember one guy for hawks kicking 0.4 in a praccy match, and thought if he gets a gig im going to bet him for goals.
Well its the last game of the year and hes getting his first game, and also named on the HFF

Ned long

AGS $2
2+ $12
3+ $51

all at pointsbet.

last day of the home and away, can we finish how it all started?

Tailed

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I'm onto the Guklden today!

1, 2, 3,4, 5+

Logan

2, 4, 4,5+

 

[GROTTO]

Be

Best site to go with ash?

SB