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AFL 2022 AFL Round 3

Line Winners?


  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .

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Well, one of these books has the wrong price.

Keeffe AGS @ $1.36 sb
Keeffe AGS @ $4 TS

Looking at the team sheet, I think Keeffe plays forward (Peatling and Stein both also on the bench and they're defenders).
 
WHAT TRAINS WE ON?
Bris 61+ $91 - TS if you wanna party
agree with Jikost on Hodder, good odds.

Also im starting to think SB know something about McInnes, on paper it seems obvious he is replacing McCreery. But his odds haven't moved and they must have a sh!tload of liability on him. It smells a bit.
 

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2u - Swallow under 17.5 disposals - $1.83 - PointsBet
Is predominately playing in defence now with small stints in the midfield. Is yet to record a CBA or kick in this season and has yet to go over 14 disposals.

3u - Hogan 2+ goals - $1.85 - Dabble
1.25u - Hogan 3+ goals - $4 - Dabble
0.5u - Hogan 4+ goals - $8 - SB
0.25u - Hogan 5+ goals - $21 - SB
Has kicked 2+ in 7/10 games for the Giants and 3+ in 3/10 and 4+ in 2/10. Yet to kick 5+ for them but a small bit of value against his career numbers. Weather has cleared for this one, which may have been factored into the odds, but not yet corrected.

2u - Whitfield 25+ disposals - $1.85 - Dabble
Bottom barrel sort of line for Whitfield. Has the kick in role and is one of the Giants best ball users and hardest runners.



2.5u - Moore under 17.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Maynard back into the side (main kick in taker) and a tough match up against Hawkins/Cameron tonight makes this one a play.

2u - Nick Daicos under 24.5 disposals - $1.87 - Ladbrokes
Won’t get the freedom he had in round 1 tonight. That round 1 game started off with 9 first quarter disposals and then fizzled out to 18 more for the rest of the game. Looks to be Collingwood’s toughest match up of the season which will make possessions harder to come by for him.

2.5u - Cam Guthrie under 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - Ladbrokes


2u - Adams over 25.5 disposals - $1.82 - Ladbrokes
Low line based off a slow start to the season due to an interrupted preseason. Average should be pushing towards 28 by seasons end. A player that will need to bring his A game for Collingwood to have a chance against the Cats



2u - Tom Powell over 19.5 disposals - $1.87 - PointsBet
With no LDU or Thomas in the line up his role sees a bit of an uptick. Has had 21 and 20 so far this season.

2u - Neale most disposals - $2.65 - Ladbrokes
Well over the consensus market price here with $2.05 the next best. Has had a couple big games to start the season and after an injury interrupted season last year he looks like he could be back to his best. No threat of a tag tonight.
 
GWS v Suns game I expect to be a pretty tight game. I took the overs last night and that line has since moved out quite a bit but I'm going to let that one ride.

I said last night I should stop with the goalscorer bets, but geez are they the most fun bets to make for AFL. So I've decided that I will bet only 0.1u on any goalscorer bet from 2+ - 6+ so I can still have a sweat on them but not hurt my bankroll too much. This will also allow me to jump on many more trains with a lower expected return but the potential for a decent payout (5-10u+) if one of them get to the 4+, 5+ stations.

Over 149.5 - 1.5u @ $1.88
Wire to Wire - Any Other Result - 1u @ $2.10 (For those who don't know this bet just means that the same team won't be leading every quarter)

Ainsworth - 0.1u each on 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+ @ $3.75, $10, $26, $101
Bobby Hill - 0.1u each on 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+ @ $3.75, $10, $26, $81
Holman - 0.1u each on 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+ @ $6, $21, $51, $101
Sexton - 0.1u each on 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+ @ $2.50, $6, $17, $67
Rowell - 0.1u each on 2+, 3+ @ $11, $41
DeBoer - 0.1u on 2+ @ $14
Ellis - 0.1u on 2+ @ $21

Total Outlay - 4.5u with 2u being on goalscorer bets
 
watching the Showdown, think that Josh Rachele might be the dangerous small forward for the Crows now. Its my 1st look at him closely. They have quite a number of dangerous small forwards that can snag goals.

Anyway they look like they recruited well in the past off-season with both Dawson and Hinge. Both good kicks running out of defence.

With Tex Walker back possibly next week, they will be a good team at home for me.
 
Same game multis combination from 3 games
Himmelburg 2+G
Lukosius 2+G
Whitfield 20+Dis
Perryman 20+Dis

Cameron 2+G
Stengel 1+G
Mihocek 1+G
Crisp 20+Dis
De-Goey 20+Dis

Daniher 2+G
McCarthy 1+G
Stephenson 1+G
Zorko 20+ Dis
@47.69 Boosted SB
 

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Himmelberg 2
Casboult 2
Sexton 2
$9.03 ladbrokes

Himmelberg 2
Casboult 2
Cameron 2
De Goey
Daniher 2
C Cameron 2
McCluggage
$30.95 neds
 

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Casboult 4 too with no Phil Davis might be able to outbody Haynes or someone
 
Back for more pain

Hill 2,3,4,@4.25,10,46 Pb
(How many times will I let this guy hurt me)

Chol 3,4,5 @5.50,14,46. Sb

Deboar 2 @14 pb
 

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