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AFL 2022 AFL Round 8

Line Winners?

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Max king isn't disgraceful value @ $13 to kick 5 or more at SB.

Dees have coughed up bags of 4 to each of hawks kosi, naughton and 2metre peter this year.

Max has the tools to do similarly.

Nibble-worthy i reckon (if max kicks 5+ we win I think):
Screenshot_20220502-204408_Chrome.jpg




Or maybe throw him in to win the coleman too if you're feeling extra saucy. ;)
(his coleman odds would plummet further if he bagged 5 v the dees in a win)

Screenshot_20220502-204704_Chrome.jpg
 
Witherden and Jackson Nelson unavailable this week for Brisbane as well.

From the West:

thewest.com.au

Eagles rocked by more COVID, injury woes

West Coast coach Adam Simpson has revealed the club has been hit by a second wave of COVID and injury chaos, with at least two players ruled out of Saturday’s clash with Brisbane.
thewest.com.au thewest.com.au

Dixon, O'Neill and Strnadica didnt train with the main group today. Willie Rioli, Petrevski-Seton doubtful with injuries.

The Eagles have put the cue in the rack for 2022. Its about testing different systems and maybe looking for better picks to rebuild from. That list is going to be in the doldrums for a significant period of time- minimum of at least 3 year rebuild IMO.
 
Here we go!

Round 8 already, gee whiz!

1u - Multi - $9.65 - Ladbrokes
  • Western Bulldogs 1st Qtr SU
  • Fremantle 4th Qtr SU
  • Sydney 1st Half SU
  • Melbourne 3rd Qtr SU, Melbourne SU
  • Carlton 1st Qtr SU
Dogs have now won 5/7 1st Qtrs in 2022 and rank #4 to go along with their #1 ranking last year, Port are ranked 16th this year to go along with their #13 ranking of 2021. Freo lost their first final Qtr on the weekend taking them to 6/7 final Qtr wins for the season, the Kangaroos on the other hand are 1/7 in fourth qtrs. Gold Coast currently rank 17th for both 1st and 2nd Qtrs, Sydney big favourites so expect them to lead at the half. Melbourne won 20/25 3rd Qtrs in 2021 and so far in 2022 have won 7/7, expect the premiers to hang on and win this one. Carlton ranked #5 whilst Adelaide ranked 18th this follows on from Adelaide ranking 16th in 2021.

5u - Disposal Multi - $2.27 - 365
  • Serong 20+ disposals
  • Baker 15+ disposals
  • Lloyd 20+ disposals
  • Sicily 20+ disposals
Reckon these are some solid legs. Odds stronger here on bet365 than other books. Have to play them all as singles through the same game multi tab. Serong 100% on the season in a secure midfield role. Baker looks to be back in his defensive role. Had 22 on the weekend and went 22/23 for 15+ last year. Lloyd 100% in 2021 and 2022. Sicily 100% in the season, good match up vs Essendon.

5u - AGS Multi - $1.78 - 365
  • Greene AGS
  • Wingard AGS
Big overs vs the other bookies. Greene 100% in 2021 and 2022. Wingard 100% this year, playing high forward.



5u - Wines 30+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
Had an L on this on the weekend but happy to go at it again with some strong history from last season. Discount his injured game he’s 3/5 this season with one loss being a 29. Last season was 17/24 on this, hitting 32, 34, and 38 in his 3 games against the Dogs.

2.5u - Western Bulldogs (1st Qtr SU) - $1.88 - PointsBet
As mentioned in multi write up. Port could start a touch sluggish after a tough fought battle in Cairns on the weekend.



3u - North Melbourne under 58.5 - $1.90 - Ladbrokes
Looks as though Melbourne come into this one with no Zurhaar, Larkey, Thomas, tough to see how they kick a score this weekend against Freo who are the second best defence so far this season giving up just one more point than Melbourne at 62ppg. North only averaging 64ppg. Things against North should push this under.

3u - Switkowski 15+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
15+ in 5/7 this year. Massive work rate. Was controversially ranked as “elite” by champion data in preseason but has massive work rate pushing high up the ground and on the wings. Suns giving up 4th most disposals per game. Probably benefits from Acres being out giving him more time on the wing.

3u - Jordan Clark 20+ disposals - $1.95 - Ladbrokes
Has built into his debut season at Freo nicely. Has 5/7 games of 20+ including 3 of his last 3. Will be looking to average above this over the course of the season. Great matchup against North who look to be a rabble. Probably benefits from Acres being out giving him more time on the wing.

3.5u - Brayshaw 30+ disposals - $2.50 - 365
1u - Brayshaw 35+ disposals - $7.25 - 365
0.5u - Brayshaw 40+ disposals - $20 - 365
Has received a bit of extra defensive pressure this season from opposition teams but expecting him to be able to get off the chain in this one. Line likely to get set at 28.5 so happy to take on the extra disposal for the gun midfielder. Has already had a game of 34 and 40 this season.



2u - Whitfield AGS - $2.50 - TAB
1u - Whitfield 2+ goals - $9.75 - SB
0.5u - Whitfield 3+ goals - $34 - SB
Played his best game of the season in a high half forward role on the weekend kicking 3.0. With the emergence of a few other guys off half back and the output he had on the weekend there’s no reason why this role shouldn’t continue. Is an elite kick so doesn’t need too many opportunities so will grab the opportunities when they’re there.



2.5u - McCluggage 25+ disposals - $2.20 - 365
Has seen a rise in time on the inside the last 3 weeks with games of 27, 22, 28. Big plus if this role continues this week but can easily reach this total on the wing too. Averaged bang on 25 in 2021, started this season slow with 14 and 19 in his first two and has averaged 25.6 since then. Should bump this number up higher if this role continues and on natural progression.



3u - Scrimashaw 20+ disposals - $1.90 - TAB
Took him for 20+ on the weekend at $1.70 for a win in the last minute of the game. Is now 4/6 on the season, and has one game of 19 against the Swans who give up the least disposals in the comp. Had a success rate of 12/18 last year.

1.5u - Moore 2+ goals - $2.75 - TAB
1u - Moore 3+ goals - $7 - TAB
0.5u - Moore 4+ goals - $21 - TAB
Has kicked 2+ in 4/7 games this season. Essendon conceding the third most points per game after WCE and North which is quite alarming. Conditions under the roof at Marvel should suit the inform forward.



3u - Melbourne 3rd Qtr SU, Melbourne SU - $1.81 - Ladbrokes
As mentioned, Melbourne won 20/25 3rd Qtrs in 2021 and so far in 2022 have won 7/7, expect the premiers to hang on and win this one. Potential wet weather surrounding this one which probably plays more into Melbourne’s hands than it does the Saints. Dees should be boosted and regain Jackson and Pickett from covid protocols, whilst Hibberd is potentially available after playing VFL.
 

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BloodRet said:
Coleman Jones 4.70, 16, 51, 276 multiples at sb. Likely plays nearly a whole game at full forward with Larkey out? Much shorter at other bookies I quite like this.
Click to expand...
Tailing, 6pr is rumouring more outs for Freo due to covid

no idea who they are but if we lose a key defender or two then it makes this one very interesting
 
This is likely going to be a bloodbath for us (Eagles)
We used to rely on Nicnat to win the taps. Rioli should be out and highly doubtful on O'neill.
Yeo should come back in but our team is just horrible atm.
I think in the past 4 games, we have only scored 1 or 2 goals max in the first half.
Awaiting to see if Barrass is back or not to shore up the defence. If not expect another drubbing unless theres rain or a dewy Gabba.

Freo will be without Lobb. Which train to get? Schultz
 
For me the only thing about the Brisbane v West Coast game, is Brisbanes motivation. If they really wanted to win by 120 points or more, they could. If they come to the ground, thinking 'we only want to win by 10 goals today' and not risk injury - thats another thing in itself. Not sure too much about the theory of "good teams win, great teams cover" apply to Australian Football. But definitely in US sports- its a big thing.


My rule is teams at the hot favourite lines, don't often go out and play for Lines- especially in AFL. The priorities are often 1) winning 2) avoiding injury. For the punters, lines mean everything. But don't expect Brisbane players to be disappointed if they ended up winning by 63 points, if the handicap was 63.5.

A big Brisbane win would mean they overtake Melbourne on the ladder for the day or so. And with a relatively tough 2 months ahead with: Adelaide (in Adelaide), Hawks (MCG), Giants, Freo (in Perth), St.Kilda, Melbourne and Bulldogs. A good percentage maybe needed as it may come back to potentially help them with a Top 2 spot, somewere down the track.

And I very doubt the coach, will tell their players to win by a certain margin. More like, just see how things go and adjust to the situation.
 
Ohh Ok said:
Here we go!

Round 8 already, gee whiz!

1u - Multi - $9.65 - Ladbrokes
  • Western Bulldogs 1st Qtr SU
  • Fremantle 4th Qtr SU
  • Sydney 1st Half SU
  • Melbourne 3rd Qtr SU, Melbourne SU
  • Carlton 1st Qtr SU
Dogs have now won 5/7 1st Qtrs in 2022 and rank #4 to go along with their #1 ranking last year, Port are ranked 16th this year to go along with their #13 ranking of 2021. Freo lost their first final Qtr on the weekend taking them to 6/7 final Qtr wins for the season, the Kangaroos on the other hand are 1/7 in fourth qtrs. Gold Coast currently rank 17th for both 1st and 2nd Qtrs, Sydney big favourites so expect them to lead at the half. Melbourne won 20/25 3rd Qtrs in 2021 and so far in 2022 have won 7/7, expect the premiers to hang on and win this one. Carlton ranked #5 whilst Adelaide ranked 18th this follows on from Adelaide ranking 16th in 2021.

5u - Disposal Multi - $2.27 - 365
  • Serong 20+ disposals
  • Baker 15+ disposals
  • Lloyd 20+ disposals
  • Sicily 20+ disposals
Reckon these are some solid legs. Odds stronger here on bet365 than other books. Have to play them all as singles through the same game multi tab. Serong 100% on the season in a secure midfield role. Baker looks to be back in his defensive role. Had 22 on the weekend and went 22/23 for 15+ last year. Lloyd 100% in 2021 and 2022. Sicily 100% in the season, good match up vs Essendon.

5u - AGS Multi - $1.78 - 365
  • Greene AGS
  • Wingard AGS
Big overs vs the other bookies. Greene 100% in 2021 and 2022. Wingard 100% this year, playing high forward.



5u - Wines 30+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
Had an L on this on the weekend but happy to go at it again with some strong history from last season. Discount his injured game he’s 3/5 this season with one loss being a 29. Last season was 17/24 on this, hitting 32, 34, and 38 in his 3 games against the Dogs.

2.5u - Western Bulldogs (1st Qtr SU) - $1.88 - PointsBet
As mentioned in multi write up. Port could start a touch sluggish after a tough fought battle in Cairns on the weekend.



3u - North Melbourne under 58.5 - $1.90 - Ladbrokes
Looks as though Melbourne come into this one with no Zurhaar, Larkey, Thomas, tough to see how they kick a score this weekend against Freo who are the second best defence so far this season giving up just one more point than Melbourne at 62ppg. North only averaging 64ppg. Things against North should push this under.

3u - Switkowski 15+ disposals - $1.85 - TAB
15+ in 5/7 this year. Massive work rate. Was controversially ranked as “elite” by champion data in preseason but has massive work rate pushing high up the ground and on the wings. Suns giving up 4th most disposals per game. Probably benefits from Acres being out giving him more time on the wing.

3u - Jordan Clark 20+ disposals - $1.95 - Ladbrokes
Has built into his debut season at Freo nicely. Has 5/7 games of 20+ including 3 of his last 3. Will be looking to average above this over the course of the season. Great matchup against North who look to be a rabble. Probably benefits from Acres being out giving him more time on the wing.

3.5u - Brayshaw 30+ disposals - $2.50 - 365
1u - Brayshaw 35+ disposals - $7.25 - 365
0.5u - Brayshaw 40+ disposals - $20 - 365
Has received a bit of extra defensive pressure this season from opposition teams but expecting him to be able to get off the chain in this one. Line likely to get set at 28.5 so happy to take on the extra disposal for the gun midfielder. Has already had a game of 34 and 40 this season.



2u - Whitfield AGS - $2.50 - TAB
1u - Whitfield 2+ goals - $9.75 - SB
0.5u - Whitfield 3+ goals - $34 - SB
Played his best game of the season in a high half forward role on the weekend kicking 3.0. With the emergence of a few other guys off half back and the output he had on the weekend there’s no reason why this role shouldn’t continue. Is an elite kick so doesn’t need too many opportunities so will grab the opportunities when they’re there.



2.5u - McCluggage 25+ disposals - $2.20 - 365
Has seen a rise in time on the inside the last 3 weeks with games of 27, 22, 28. Big plus if this role continues this week but can easily reach this total on the wing too. Averaged bang on 25 in 2021, started this season slow with 14 and 19 in his first two and has averaged 25.6 since then. Should bump this number up higher if this role continues and on natural progression.



3u - Scrimashaw 20+ disposals - $1.90 - TAB
Took him for 20+ on the weekend at $1.70 for a win in the last minute of the game. Is now 4/6 on the season, and has one game of 19 against the Swans who give up the least disposals in the comp. Had a success rate of 12/18 last year.

1.5u - Moore 2+ goals - $2.75 - TAB
1u - Moore 3+ goals - $7 - TAB
0.5u - Moore 4+ goals - $21 - TAB
Has kicked 2+ in 4/7 games this season. Essendon conceding the third most points per game after WCE and North which is quite alarming. Conditions under the roof at Marvel should suit the inform forward.



3u - Melbourne 3rd Qtr SU, Melbourne SU - $1.81 - Ladbrokes
As mentioned, Melbourne won 20/25 3rd Qtrs in 2021 and so far in 2022 have won 7/7, expect the premiers to hang on and win this one. Potential wet weather surrounding this one which probably plays more into Melbourne’s hands than it does the Saints. Dees should be boosted and regain Jackson and Pickett from covid protocols, whilst Hibberd is potentially available after playing VFL.
Click to expand...

Nice tips. I'll be sure to tail a few. Already got on Moore goals at TAB this afternoon.


Whitfield 4 into Geelong win is 1000-1 at SB.
 
Last edited:
the sportsbet odds for 2+ are so bad this week its crazy...

hope its just early week stuff (as they were bad early last week... not as bad)(then got better towards gameday)]
 
Brayden Preuss
AGS $2.60
2+ $11.50
3+ $34

3 out of 4 times this year he has had 2 scoring shots a game, and multiple times in his career he has kicked 2 goals. Rhys stanley is under an injury cloud and will be subject to a fitness test after injuring his ankle late in the game against freo. So im guessing if ge does play then he probably wont be 100%. If he doesnt play im not even sure who rucks for the cats, maybe blitz-arse ?
 
Isaac Heeney for 3/4/5 at $4.25/$11/$36 @ TAB
Should be well shorter. Is $5 for 4+ at SB for example. Kicked 3 last week and already has a bag of 5 this year. Massive bet !!
 

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Crock Hunter said:
Isaac Heeney for 3/4/5 at $4.25/$11/$36 @ TAB
Should be well shorter. Is $5 for 4+ at SB for example. Kicked 3 last week and already has a bag of 5 this year. Massive bet !!
Click to expand...
Be wary with him... his CBA went from 0 to 33% last week.. aswell as his heat map all over the ground.. with papley back he can now run thru the midfield again.
 
TryAnHit said:
Be wary with him... his CBA went from 0 to 33% last week.. aswell as his heat map all over the ground.. with papley back he can now run thru the midfield again.
Click to expand...

Plan is a 60/40 split.
 

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Bonus bet back if 1 leg loses.

Dunstan left on bad terms with a huge chip on his shoulder about how we didn't rate him.
Will play like a maniac to stick it up us (assuming he gets picked?)

I'd be simply amazed if he plays and doesn't get at least 20. (@ 1.95)

Also worth a nibble for 25+ @ 4.70 and 30+ @ 14
 
Last edited:
for the locals in Adelaide , does this bet worry us for Overs backers?

1651557923087.png

Definitely thinking along the lines of wet weather and/or dew favours Port Adelaide more. They showed that in their last week in Cairns in the dew.

A clean, dry fast track is what the Doggies want.

Any locals know much about what the weather will be like?
 
Looking at the forecasts for Adelaide 2-5 mm of rain predicted pre game.

The Current line for Total Match points is

Under 157.5 pts $1.88 v $1.88 Over 157.5 pts

Just saying.
 
A couple of early ones while Neale's still value. Could have easily had 3-4 against the Dons a few weeks back.. Mite be a show without having Joe 'Kickit to Me' Daniher down there

Neale 3+
Rayner 2+
CC 2+
26 SB Boosted

Neale 4+
Rayner 2+
CC 2+
105 SB Boosted

Neale 5+
Rayner 2+
CC 2+
276 SB
 

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AFL 2022 AFL Round 8

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