Review 2023 National Draft Review Thread II [McKercher, Z.Duursma, Goad, W.Dawson, Hardeman, Maley]

[The Filth Wizard]

Nothing gets past you

Memory like a fish

It comes with drinking like one.

 

[Shinboner1]

Your analysis of our big men stock is the very
reason I'd be surprised if Curtin wasn't the player mulled over by the Club more than any other draftee at 2 or 3.

He won't play on the gorillas but he could be your creative, mobile 195cm CHB for the next 10 years. When's the last time we had one of those?

He looks an athlete for his size and appears a pretty good kick.

I'd select him and McKercher with 2 and 3.

McKercher adds a point of difference in our midfield with his speed, spread and athleticsm and he edges Duursma out because he appears more of a hybrid forward. We have a few young players like Sheezel, George and Ford who could step up in that role.

We need speed, poise and good footskills off half back. Roberts and Hastie apparently fit that profile and at least one should be still on the board.

We'd have to consider A Reid and Collard purely on needs for the remaining two picks.

If we can nail 2 of those latter 3 picks - it could accelerate our rebuild.

We can take key position players with our picks in the teens, I doubt we'll be able to get anyone of Dursma or Kertchers type with teen picks. I know which one I'd be picking.

 

[GS WARRIORS]

Key Position/ Rucks on our list

Bic Boy - delisted by Richmond and highly likely not up to it

Pink - state league defender and highly likely not up to it

Comben - certainly up to it but body seemingly won’t allow a career. Have to assume this is his last contract unfortunately

Logue - solid player coming off an acl and already missed plenty of footy through injury

Free - seemingly not up to afl

Ccj - definitely not up to afl

Larkey - gun KPF

Xerri - average at best ruckman

Corr - average undersized key defender who turns 30 next year

That is an appalling list, assuming our intention is to win a flag in the future.

We need to draft 3 KPP/rucks in this draft and assuming we aren’t taking Curtin with 2 or 3, we should be using all 15,17,18 on KPP/rucks

For me, in order of preference

1: archer Reid - dual key forward and ruck. Underwhelming season overall given expectations but still produced very good footy at times. Athletic testing looked good to me. Leads well at the footy. Marks the footy well. Doesn’t look out of place with the footy on the ground.

2: Mitch edwards - would be the most athletic exciting ruck prospect we have drafted that I can remember. Talk of off field issues, but until confirmed he’s my second pick.

3: wil Dawson - all upside. Can be developed down back or up forward. I’d certainly be starting him down back given his competitiveness.

Others I’d be happy with

Murphy - not in the top 3 for me given frame and athleticism. But still a good long term prospect

ZZ - would be speculative but his competitiveness coupled with his athleticism give him a good shot at forging a career as a lock down full
Back

Green - looks good in the ruck, but nothing special testing wise. Went with edwards but could see the local boy being a good pickup instead.

Not interested in

Shoenmakers - not a kpd, and character concerns (not talking about his suspension).

Agree, I would be happy with the below.

Pick 2 - Mckercher
Pick 3 - Duursma
Pick 15 - M Edwards
Pick 17 - A Reid
Pick 18 - W Dawson

Reid and Dawson might be slight reaches. They do give us 2 200+cm KP players at either end with good upside though.

Would also be happy with Schoenmakers/Collard if they pass the background checks.

 

[Sheezel2Wardlaw]

Mckercher/Sanders rumour is getting stronger.

 

[shinboner magic]

Mckercher/Sanders rumour is getting stronger.

If we get sanders ,we should of traded Phillips

How many mids

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

Some information from one of these two managers, Mckercher and Duursma. “North won’t trade for pick one and you can take it to the bank picks 2 and 3 will be Mckercher and Duursma.”

If this is the case then cooler heads have prevailed at Arden St and that is good to see. Given we have already put in 2 bids for number 1 then clearly we wanted to trade for pick 1 but WC are just asking for too much.

McKerch and Duursma seem the best choices for us - McKerch just looks so classy and different to what we have in the mids atm. He will start wing and work his way into the mid rotation over time.

Clarko loves a dynamic forward line and adding someone like Duursma to the mix helps this.

The starting 6 in the forwards will look something like

HF - Ford Zurhaar Simpkin
F - Duursma Larkey TT

Only 1 bloke above 190cm's (4 of them are 189cm) but still plenty of mobile marking power plus strong ability at ground level. This group will need to collectively work on their defensive pressure but no doubt Clarko will be enforcing that over pre season.

The other interesting top 10 pick for us would be Caddy - if things fall our way draft night I can see us trading into the top 10 to get him.

 

[Amicalola]

If this is the case then cooler heads have prevailed at Arden St and that is good to see. Given we have already put in 2 bids for number 1 then clearly we wanted to trade for pick 1 but WC are just asking for too much.

McKerch and Duursma seem the best choices for us - McKerch just looks so classy and different to what we have in the mids atm. He will start wing and work his way into the mid rotation over time.

Clarko loves a dynamic forward line and adding someone like Duursma to the mix helps this.

The starting 6 in the forwards will look something like

HF - Ford Zurhaar Simpkin
F - Duursma Larkey TT

Only 1 bloke above 190cm's (4 of them are 189cm) but still plenty of mobile marking power plus strong ability at ground level. This group will need to collectively work on their defensive pressure but no doubt Clarko will be enforcing that over pre season.

The other interesting top 10 pick for us would be Caddy - if things fall our way draft night I can see us trading into the top 10 to get him.

Feels like Curtis and Stephenson have to get a mention as starting forwards, right? George too, if he wasn't bloody injured all the time. And Sheezel...

 

[speedy]

Mckercher/Sanders rumour is getting stronger.

Stronger from where?
Don’t like it. Better off splitting pick 3 than drafting 2 mids.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

A taller Robbie Gray? Early years Fyfe? Skinnier Heeney?

A less sexy, right footed Aaron Black?

 

[discodaddy]

I have overthought the draft, fa, pick purchasing etc, but I reckon this could make things interesting.

What about moving to an auction/associated cost type environment across the board?

The basis for the system rests of the following baseline numbers:

Draft Points (DP): 49,436
Salary Cap (SC): $15,022,778.00
Point Dollar Value (PDV): $303.88 is equal to 1 point

Finishing position throughout the year remain connected with the draft point system - no longer 'pick order'.

18 - 3000 points
17 - 2517 points
etc etc

Clubs are then able to bid in an auction type environment on picks that they determine to be of value to them. Highest bidder receives the pick ie Team A may value pick 1 at 4,000 (or 2,000) points and bid accordingly.
The lower ranking teams from any given year will have more capital to spend on picks, so there remains an element of fairness to it.

Free Agency compensation is derived by the following:

Contract Years (CY)
Contract Value (CV)
Contract Yearly Value (CYV)

CV/CY = CYV
CYV/PDV = Points

A five year contract at $2,000,000 will be $400,000 a year over the contract length, the yearly contract value over the point dollar value will be equal to 1,316 that will be added to the receiving clubs auction capital rather than a 'pick'.

There could also be a mechanism in place where the associated points are transferred from the club acquiring the player to the club loosing the player, this will ensure the total draft points are consistent year on year. This also limits the more successful teams that have less draft capital to 'load up' in any given year due to the points environment.
This method would allow clubs to pay true value for players rather than heavily front ended contracts as it has associated draft capital costs.

Point purchasing will work with the same calculation.

When a club has surplus salary cap and they are wanting to purchase more points for the draft, clubs must deal with rival teams to purchase points from them.

Club A has salary cap space of $750,000, this allows them to purchase 2,468 points from rival clubs. Point purchasing can be completed at 1 point units. This can balance teams salary cap requirements ie GC could have sold points to retain Bowes for +1 year etc.

Academy & Father Son selections remain.

Core changes:

Academy & Father sons bid matching across all rounds
Discounts to be eliminated
Additional associated costs attributed to academy & father son selections per round - R1 +30%, R2 +20%, R3 +10%, R4 +5%

Clubs will be granted access to all academy players & father sons across all rounds, however, with access comes cost.

If Team A consider academy player A to be worthy of pick 5, then the club associated with player A has the opportunity to match the bid +30% of the pick value - this is the cost of access.

This brings transparency to FA, incorporates the same value to FA contracts, point purchasing & equalises academy & father son selections.
Under no circumstances should any club be granted both access & discounted value.

This would force clubs to take academy & father son selections at their true value rather than pushing them down the draft.

If club A's academy player is a top 3 selection and club A has the capital to buy the player at pick 3 (2,234 points), they more than likely will due to the inflationary cost (30%) of matching bids ie if club B bid on club A's academy player at 5 then club A will have the choice to have access at a point cost of 2,441 or more points than pick 3 value.
It also decreases 'dummy' bids due to the increased probability of clubs passing on matching the bid due to the additional costs of high end talent.

ie if club A bids on Jed Walter at pick one in the current draft, GC would be required to match at 3,900 points increasing the likelihood of club A gaining access to Walter.

There may be no deficits of points going into the following year.

Future point swapping remains.

Unused points in the draft are forfeited - this will encourage point purchasing.

I have long mulled over an auction/points-based system like this, but not to this level of detail. Well done.

I like that all picks are taken at something damned close to true market price, and that teams lower down the ladder get some more poker chips (points) to play with.

Some teams would play games of auction chicken in order to drive up the price of a player another club wants - a dangerous game, but fun to watch…

Any thoughts on how these auctions might work? e.g. by ranking/seeding, or random? Again, it would create some interesting dynamics on the night if the player you really want is later in the auction order - you’d have to keep your powder dry until the end. I think you’d have to go by seedings to minimise the chance of teams getting near the end and having heaps of unspent points due to being outbid in later auctions.

I’m not so sure about the “access“ loading on academy and father/son selections though. That feels like a real disincentive to pick your own academy player. As long as those selections involve the academy club paying full price via a matching bid, then I’m ok with it dilutes their points elsewhere in the draft.

A system like this could also depoliticise the AFL‘s intervention: Your club needs help? Here’s another 1500 points to play with. You’ve injected your team with peptides? We’re taking 1500 points from you in the next draft.

There are probably some other procedural elements that would need to be added in to stop gaming of the system.

 

[The acurate one]

Some information from one of these two managers, Mckercher and Duursma. “North won’t trade for pick one and you can take it to the bank picks 2 and 3 will be Mckercher and Duursma.”

Yep Old mate told me so a couple of weeks ago.

Apparently Duursma was unwell for a fair whack of the season, well they said that on the wireless.

Certainly once fit had a huge finish to the season.

Super excited by the thought of this bloke.

 

[shimaburnsgrieg]

Feels like Curtis and Stephenson have to get a mention as starting forwards, right? George too, if he wasn't bloody injured all the time. And Sheezel...

One of Curtis/Sleevo would be the 7th forward - George along way off atm. Sheezel in the middle.

 

[The acurate one]

Mckercher/Sanders rumour is getting stronger.

Not what I heard, will be interesting to see it play out. Old mate is great friends with the decision makers fwiw.

 

[r_boy]

Could Tholstrup be shifted to defence?

Rumours on bigfooty are we are into him

 

[kirbonavich]

If we get sanders ,we should of traded Phillips

How many mids

I know there is a lot of chatter around NM and the amount of midfielders, I just don't see us having the right upper echelon type.

For me there is only one mid in our team that has the runs on the board - LDU.

There is good potential in Phillips & Powell for mine, that's all it is at this stage.

TT certainly has the ability, but still hasn't strung a great season together & there will always be a question mark there.

Simpkin only ever going to be an average midfielder, which is okay.

To be competitive, it looks like you need to have x5/6 significantly damaging mids that rotate.

Sidebottom, Pendles, Daicos, Adams*, Mitchell, DeGoey
Dunkley, Ashcroft, Neale, Zorko, Bailey, McCluggage
Boak, Butters, Rozee, JHF, Wines
Petracca, Viney, Brayshaw, Oliver, Hunter

Those teams have forwards that can transition as well.

NM mids, besides LDU & TT wouldn't get a game in most mids across the competition.

 

[MagicDaw]

Mckercher/Sanders rumour is getting stronger.

Don't mind it, but could we still get Sanders with 6 if we do 3 for 6 and 11?
Would like one of Sullie or Curtain (maybe Caddy) by trading back in top 10 if we do this (11 and 17?)
Collard plus a tall with our other teen picks.

 

[shinboner magic]

Don't mind it, but could we still get Sanders with 6 if we do 3 for 6 and 11?
Would like one of Sullie or Curtain (maybe Caddy) by trading back in top 10 if we do this (11 and 17?)
Collard plus a tall with our other teen picks.

Don’t think sanders gets past dogs pick

 

[shinboner magic]

I know there is a lot of chatter around NM and the amount of midfielders, I just don't see us having the right upper echelon type.

For me there is only one mid in our team that has the runs on the board - LDU.

There is good potential in Phillips & Powell for mine, that's all it is at this stage.

TT certainly has the ability, but still hasn't strung a great season together & there will always be a question mark there.

Simpkin only ever going to be an average midfielder, which is okay.

To be competitive, it looks like you need to have x5/6 significantly damaging mids that rotate.

Sidebottom, Pendles, Daicos, Adams*, Mitchell, DeGoey
Dunkley, Ashcroft, Neale, Zorko, Bailey, McCluggage
Boak, Butters, Rozee, JHF, Wines
Petracca, Viney, Brayshaw, Oliver, Hunter

Those teams have forwards that can transition as well.

NM mids, besides LDU & TT wouldn't get a game in most mids across the competition.

Think wilphi can match some of the above mids like adams , wines,Mitchell , hunter , brayshaw

 

[The acurate one]

We can take key position players with our picks in the teens, I doubt we'll be able to get anyone of Dursma or Kertchers type with teen picks. I know which one I'd be picking.

We leave Duursma off he will be the very next selection after whoever we’ve drafted. Monumental fu k up it would be

 

[Merlin007]

Mckercher/Sanders rumour is getting stronger.

Was there not some talk a while ago that we'd given those boys an understanding that we'd take them together? Probably BS like everything else, but possibly the rumour never went away

 

[DesertRoo]

We leave Duursma off he will be the very next selection after whoever we’ve drafted. Monumental fu k up it would be

Pfft Clarko will whip in shape who ever we get.
He’s worth way way more then whether we pick bow and arrows man brother or curtains.

 

[gustaaf]

I know there is a lot of chatter around NM and the amount of midfielders, I just don't see us having the right upper echelon type.

For me there is only one mid in our team that has the runs on the board - LDU.

There is good potential in Phillips & Powell for mine, that's all it is at this stage.

TT certainly has the ability, but still hasn't strung a great season together & there will always be a question mark there.

Simpkin only ever going to be an average midfielder, which is okay.

To be competitive, it looks like you need to have x5/6 significantly damaging mids that rotate.

Sidebottom, Pendles, Daicos, Adams*, Mitchell, DeGoey
Dunkley, Ashcroft, Neale, Zorko, Bailey, McCluggage
Boak, Butters, Rozee, JHF, Wines
Petracca, Viney, Brayshaw, Oliver, Hunter

Those teams have forwards that can transition as well.

NM mids, besides LDU & TT wouldn't get a game in most mids across the competition.

There isn't another club in the AFL that wouldn't take the Warlord in a heartbeat and offer him a 6 year contract. He is a top 5 player of the competition in the making, providing his hammies hold together. I'll be expecting the Warlord to tear it up next season and to transform our midfield by adding a dimension we currently don't have. The cherry on top is that he'll be much better than JHF 'smirk'.

 

[Reagan Smash]

Another link to where we take it smiling while we help other teams out

Bold three-way plan to unlock Pick 1 deal as ‘disrespectful’ call stuns: Draft Talking Pts — FOX SPORTS Australia

The AFL Draft is just two weeks away – and there’s still plenty to sort out. Fox Footy runs through the big burning questions, including the huge pre- and mid-draft calls to be made.

apple.news

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Curtin makes more sense list wise than Dursma no doubt. He’s up to 197cm and 95kgs. That’s crazy at 18.

I’m not really sure on his athleticism. He didn’t test at the combine and the experts here haven’t shared any data here provided any. I have seen some question his speed.

Ultimately I’m happy to go best available at 2 and 3 other than sanders (who I really like but just can’t justify his selection), as long as they take talls with 15,17 and 18.

No concerns about Curtin’s athleticism, isn’t freakish, but has better than avg leap and speed. Agility is good for a kid his size.

 

[SonofSamsquanch]

Not what I heard, will be interesting to see it play out. Old mate is great friends with the decision makers fwiw.

So you are suggesting that if I was to be considering the creation of an alt account such as reid2saunders or saunders2watson I might need to shell out to get it changed within a couple of weeks?