List Mgmt. 2024 List Management Part 2 📃

[Beer n Skittles]

I'm not sure how opinions on Williams differ so much but I thought he was fantastic up forward. Presented as a marking target, roved packs, and followed up applying pressure; all other small forward options are really only capable of doing one of those things not all three.

Looking at his 10 games as a forward from the Sydney to the WCE games - he averaged 1.5 goals (ahead of Owies who only really kicks goals), 1.5 tackles inside 50 (just behind Fogarty who only really provides pressure), 5.5 score involvements (which is the kind of numbers the high half forwards & mids put up, but he's outperforming the small forwards in their stats too).

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I have no inside knowledge but just listening to the SEN this morning I think we will end up with Dan Houston. Sam Edmund cited the 3-club trade between us sending Future 1st to Richmond for a first rounder this year then trading to Port for Houston as he said Port are desperate to get into this years draft. Some steak knives presumable also involved but you can see it working.

The more I think about this the more I'm all in. We need a big KPD but our other Achilles heel is ball movement from half-back. We have seen how damaging Saad is when operating at 100% but he seems to be slowing so Houston ready made replacement and allows us to bring Billy Wilson along in time.

Get speed on the ball out of the back line and all things start to fall into place up forward.

At face value it makes sense... but imo, the system we play and our midfield is what causes that poor ball movement from hb.

Unless Houston is going to be able to nail pin point passes (and I'm talking to team mates surrounded by opponents) over and over again, game after game for a whole season, we're going to get less of an improvement than we expect by adding him to our side.

Our biggest issue is our one dimensional, mostly one paced mid field and its reliance on Cripps. You would find that our ball movement from half back would improve tenfold if we change our midfield mix by adding players with leg speed, work rate (they're so stagnant and always flood the wing) and the ability to hit i50 targets more often than what the current crop can.

Cripps does the grunt work, dishes a handball off to:

Walsh - who (imo) under the new htb rule feels more pressured to dispose of it... so he either kicks forward blindly or rushes a hb to a team mate under pressure or gets caught htb.

Kennedy - cross your fingers he can hit an i50 target.

Hewett - a smart decision maker, but more often than not, he's not quick enough and when he doesn't have time his ball use suffers dramatically.

Cerra - hits an i50 target and pings his hammy.

And given they're pretty much one paced, they don't spread well enough to create options, they flood the wing (which imo is also due to instruction and work rate) and in turn, our ball use off half back looks like shit.

It is ultra reliant on Cripps and TDK (who pretty much plays as another mid)

 

[Raging Blue]

Fingers crossed Doc & Jack will be like new recruits next year. They both have high footy IQs. They both act as utilities allowing coaches more options during games & selection. Doc can play wing, half back & mid. Jack 2nd or 3rd tall, 2nd ruck or a tagging roll on a powerful mid, maybe chop out in the backline. At a minimum they are great 21 & 22nd picked players. Jack will be an even better player in a top 4 team.

My list management concern.

We don’t have explosive small forwards who are also strong in the air/or contest strongly in the air. All top teams have them. Hill & Elliot for Pies, Heeny & Papley, Weightman, Cameron, Riolis, Ryan, Greene, Watson & Ginnivan etc. Owies, Motlop, Fogarty, Durdin, Fantasia have their moments & strengths but are no good contesting in the air against their direct opponent. What this means teams can flood our forward line double team Curnow & McKay knowing if we kick to our smalls they will generally beaten by their direct defenders. A fit Martin & Williams along with E Hollands & only playing one or two of the above smalls & we would have cruised to top 4

I was very surprised we didn’t roll the dice with Martin against Lions & but rather played Cerra. Only to take Kennedy off. In that elimination final, in that 1st ten minutes, it was highly intense opening & a bit of arm wrestle. But Lions were marking everything in the individual marking contests. We did not have any relief before the flood gates opened. Obviously starting with Dekoning would have helped but we had lots of smalls running around inept in the air.

I want us to find this small forward type of player. Our window is now. Pay overs to get this player now. We have other areas reasonably covered. A key position defender can be traded in when required just like Hawks are going to do.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Try again

Read it many times, still got no idea which angle you’re trying to convey!!


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[agro]

David Cuningham - unsurprising and ultimately necessary, was probably fortunate to stick around as long as he did on hope and potential.

Caleb Marchbank - also unsurprising and necessary, also lucky to have hung around this long, has shown it doesn't take him long to re-find the level when he plays, but only takes him about 1 week more to find another injury. Game is worse off for not having seen him fulfil his potential.

Jack Martin - a little disappointing that we can't get anything for him, but we didn't give any picks up for him so maybe it's just karma. Reported to have done a medical at Freo, and to have garnered some small interest from GC - today's news probably indicates the medical wasn't great and those clubs have either withdrawn their interest or indicated he's only worth exploring as a DFA or SSP pick after other list changes have taken place. Same story as Marchy, he could have been a huge drawcard for the game but for his body.

I thought one more year would have been worthwhile.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

At face value it makes sense... but imo, the system we play and our midfield is what causes that poor ball movement from hb.

Unless Houston is going to be able to nail pin point passes (and I'm talking to team mates surrounded by opponents) over and over again, game after game for a whole season, we're going to get less of an improvement than we expect by adding him to our side.

Our biggest issue is our one dimensional, mostly one paced mid field and its reliance on Cripps. You would find that our ball movement from half back would improve tenfold if we change our midfield mix by adding players with leg speed, work rate (they're so stagnant and always flood the wing) and the ability to hit i50 targets more often than what the current crop can.

Cripps does the grunt work, dishes a handball off to:

Walsh - who (imo) under the new htb rule feels more pressured to dispose of it... so he either kicks forward blindly or rushes a hb to a team mate under pressure or gets caught htb.

Kennedy - cross your fingers he can hit an i50 target.

Hewett - a smart decision maker, but more often than not, he's not quick enough and when he doesn't have time his ball use suffers dramatically.

Cerra - hits an i50 target and pings his hammy.

And given they're pretty much one paced, they don't spread well enough to create options, they flood the wing (which imo is also due to instruction and work rate) and in turn, our ball use off half back looks like shit.

It is ultra reliant on Cripps and TDK (who pretty much plays as another mid)

The slow midfield also means the backline has to position itself deeper to make sure it can pick up opposition mids running forward unaccounted for, which compounds the ball movement issue

 

[DangerousD]

I think that may be seriously downplaying the criticism that Moir copped. I may be wrong but I think you were one of the people that questioned his intensity and effort also.

Poor kid copped it from many on these boards when it was obvious he has serious AFL traits. Credit to him that he has finished the year the way he has, and no credit to the keyboard heros taking pot shots from the stands

Im not sure poor kid is the right term with Moir, he was touted as a top 5 pick in his underage year and regressed from there until sliding to our pick around 28. According to people here and draft watches he struggled with application, intensity and form through his top age year.

It seems questioning his work ethic and intensity was spot on, I’ve not seen many question his skills and abilities though, which he has plenty≥

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

It's largely semantics. Moir is there to generate goals and apply pressure...and certainly won't be deployed far from goal for a year or two.

It doesn't matter a jot where Williams was recruited to play. He's a high value forward pocket for the next two years or he's nothing.

I think most would agree early seconds are high value picks, Motlop, Durdin and Moir were our highest list priorities at draft for the year. Even Fog wasn't chump change.

It's a huge amount of resource to direct to the small forward role...partucularly in the context of where most quality small forwards are selected.

I disagree with pretty much everything written here.

Fact is our small forwards are pretty much the worst in the competition and a major major list hole.

Durdin and Motlop are by no means high value picks, Moir is so far from a small forward the comparison is irrelevant and Williams can play both ends of the ground so is also irrelevant.

You plug in a few good half forwards to our team and we'd be better for it. If that means using a good pick to sort it out I don't see why we wouldn't be doing so

 

[katmanblue]

This is a very good point. The question is why?

Players don't lose their ability. Are they sore, injured, frustrated, confused or have opposition sides found us out?

One reason I am concerned about how we fell away this year is the our 2 best players (Cripps & Weitering) couldn't have done much more. I thought Cripps had his best year

The bit you highlighted is a symptom. It's what we can see. It'll take someone with better knowledge than I to diagnose the problem.

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[swuzzlebubble]

Sam Edmund cited the 3-club trade between us sending Future 1st to Richmond for a first rounder this year then trading to Port for Houston as he said Port are desperate to get into this years draft. Some steak knives presumably also involved but you can see it working

How does that help Richmond? Would be a late first rounder and does that satisfy Port?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Read it many times, still got no idea which angle you’re trying to convey!!

They weren't in the 40s

 

[AndyLucimitis]

How does that help Richmond? Would be a late first rounder and does that satisfy Port?

I think what Edmunds said was that Richmond have a heap of 1st round picks for 2024 but want to spread a few across to the 2025 draft.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Id imagine a Houston deal would look something like

F1 + steak knives to Richmond for one of their top 15 picks this year

Richmond 1st + 2024 2nd or Owies+Carroll picks to Port for Houston

 

[woof39]

Good clubs don't over rate their players and hold on to them like Essendon. These delisting's are spot on.

 

[Soapy V]

Id imagine a Houston deal would look something like

F1 + steak knives to Richmond for one of their top 15 picks this year

Richmond 1st + 2024 2nd or Owies+Carroll picks to Port for Houston

That would be okay

It’s the reported $950k a year for the next 4 years that worries me

 

[Blue_Fusion]

The slow midfield also means the backline has to position itself deeper to make sure it can pick up opposition mids running forward unaccounted for, which compounds the ball movement issue

100%

And they're not just slow because of leg speed, they also look slow because they have nfi how to position themselves too...

This is why I've been saying we need to move on from Clarke as midfield coach... had him pretty much since 2015...

 

[sweethoney]

How does that help Richmond? Would be a late first rounder and does that satisfy Port?

Port are also going to replace Houston with Perryman or Cummings.
Out Houston
In 1st rounder and Perryman/cummings

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I disagree with pretty much everything written here.

Fact is our small forwards are pretty much the worst in the competition and a major major list hole.

Durdin and Motlop are by no means high value picks, Moir is so far from a small forward the comparison is irrelevant and Williams can play both ends of the ground so is also irrelevant.

You plug in a few good half forwards to our team and we'd be better for it. If that means using a good pick to sort it out I don't see why we wouldn't be doing so

You call Moir irrelevant and then call for us to bring in some good half forwards??? Where are we playing him?

Williams can't play both ends...if he could play across half back we would have him there. He leaks goals as a defender and is reasonably adept as a small forward. The only ROI we will see on our 1.6m dollars over the next two years is as a small forward.

Motlop was excellent last year and couldn't get going this year...do we just write him off and burn another high pick on a small forward? Or do we develop the asset we invested in?

How is a low second round pick not high value? Where does high value picks stop and start? I just can't see how taking a small (or medium) forward with our highest draft pick four years out of five can be viewed as balanced list management, especially when so many great small forwards are taken late.

Read it many times, still got no idea which angle you’re trying to convey!!


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Neither Motlop or Durdin were taken in 40s as you stated. Both were our first picks taken in draft...that suggests we've placed some high value on filling that role.

 

[Arr0w]

So we are considering Houston

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You call Moir irrelevant and then call for us to bring in some good half forwards??? Where are we playing him?

Williams can't play both ends...he leaks goals as a defender and is reasonably adept as a small forward. The only ROI we will see on our 1.6m dollars over the next two years is as a small forward.

Motlop was excellent last year and couldn't get going this year...do we just write him off and burn another high pick on a small forward? Or do we develop the asset we invested in?

How is a low second round pick not high value? Where does high value picks stop and start? I just can't see how taking a small (or medium) forward with our highest draft pick four years out of five can be viewed as balanced list management, especially when so many great small forwards are taken late.


Neither Motlop or Durdin were taken in 40s as you stated. Both were our first picks taken in draft...that suggests we've placed some high value on filling that role.

Moir is a 3rd tall marking target. He doesn't play as a small forward, he's closer to a Charlie Curnow or Brodie Kemp than he is a small forward.

Williams was coming off an ACL, an injury renowned for taking a few years to get back to ur absolute best. He could still play a range of roles next year even if he ends up settling as a small forward.

Motlop has never convinced me, kicks goals but much like Owies doesn't provide a lot else. Not writing him off yet but I have plenty of doubts. Will wait and see how he comes back next year before making final judgement.

Picks in the top 15 would be what I call 'high 'value' picks in the late 20/30/40s are not what I'd call high value. Nick Watson is what I call investing in a small forward. Pick 5 and instant returns on investment with a decade plus of upside and excitement. Bringing in more players Motlop or Durdin and waiting 3,4,5 years to get some returns is pointless while our core players are in their prime.

Either trade for a ready made talent or invest in a genuine top quality small forward in the draft, otherwise we'll continue having to slog and claw for goals up forward and rely on the individual brilliance of Charlie and Harry every game to get wins.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Don’t disagree. If we look at our small forwards

Owies - worker with limitations that can contribute but lacks genuine X factor
Motlop - most ability but needs to produce
Durdin - quick and good hands. Looks a mid trying to be a fwd
Williams - big money recruit that struggles to stay on the park
Fogarty - another mid trying to be a fwd. tough and great defensively. Not a big consistent goal kicker
Cottrell - role player with good skills but doesn’t do enough
Fantasia - injury prone and hasn’t produced his earlier form for years

Some potential but not a group I would want to be relying on and they (apart from Owies) are all contracted, on decent money and some for 2-3 years yet

That is anywhere between $3-4m tied up plus 7 list spots. That’s a lot, especially considering output. We could have 9-10 small forwards on our list because we couldn’t cut any

They don’t exactly scare an opposition. Talk is we are looking at Konstanty Rosas and a few others. That says to me we don’t trust or believe in what we have

How many do we need or can you carry?

IMO this is a real weakness in our list

Don’t disagree. If we look at our small forwards
Owies - worker with limitations that can contribute but lacks genuine X factor

Motlop - most ability but needs to produce

Durdin - quick and good hands. Looks a mid trying to be a fwd

Williams - big money recruit that struggles to stay on the park

Fogarty - another mid trying to be a fwd. tough and great defensively. Not a big consistent goal kicker

Cottrell - role player with good skills but doesn’t do enough

Fantasia - injury prone and hasn’t produced his earlier form for years


Some potential but not a group I would want to be relying on and they (apart from Owies) are all contracted, on decent money and some for 2-3 years yet

That is anywhere between $3-4m tied up plus 7 list spots. That’s a lot, especially considering output. We could have 9-10 small forwards on our list because we couldn’t cut any

They don’t exactly scare an opposition. Talk is we are looking at Konstanty Rosas and a few others. That says to me we don’t trust or believe in what we have

How many do we need or can you carry?

IMO this is a real weakness in our list

Don’t disagree. If we look at our small forwards

Owies - worker with limitations that can contribute but lacks genuine X factor
Motlop - most ability but needs to produce
Durdin - quick and good hands. Looks a mid trying to be a fwd
Williams - big money recruit that struggles to stay on the park
Fogarty - another mid trying to be a fwd. tough and great defensively. Not a big consistent goal kicker
Cottrell - role player with good skills but doesn’t do enough
Fantasia - injury prone and hasn’t produced his earlier form for years

Some potential but not a group I would want to be relying on and they (apart from Owies) are all contracted, on decent money and some for 2-3 years yet

That is anywhere between $3-4m tied up plus 7 list spots. That’s a lot, especially considering output. We could have 9-10 small forwards on our list because we couldn’t cut any

They don’t exactly scare an opposition. Talk is we are looking at Konstanty Rosas and a few others. That says to me we don’t trust or believe in what we have

How many do we need or can you carry?

IMO this is a real weakness in our list

'If there is 3 - 4 million tied up in those 7 players there is something massively wrong with our salary cap structure.

 

[Arr0w]

'If there is 3 - 4 million tied up in those 7 players there is something massively wrong with our salary cap structure.

That's an average of over 550K, apart from Williams, i doubt those guys are earning that sort of coin

7 players taking up 25% of our cap?

 

[Soapy V]

'If there is 3 - 4 million tied up in those 7 players there is something massively wrong with our salary cap structure.

Exactly

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Moir is a 3rd tall marking target. He doesn't play as a small forward, he's closer to a Charlie Curnow or Brodie Kemp than he is a small forward.

Williams was coming off an ACL, an injury renowned for taking a few years to get back to ur absolute best. He could still play a range of roles next year even if he ends up settling as a small forward.

Motlop has never convinced me, kicks goals but much like Owies doesn't provide a lot else. Not writing him off yet but I have plenty of doubts. Will wait and see how he comes back next year before making final judgement.

Picks in the top 15 would be what I call 'high 'value' picks in the late 20/30/40s are not what I'd call high value. Nick Watson is what I call investing in a small forward. Pick 5 and instant returns on investment with a decade plus of upside and excitement. Bringing in more players Motlop or Durdin and waiting 3,4,5 years to get some returns is pointless while our core players are in their prime.

Either trade for a ready made talent or invest in a genuine top quality small forward in the draft, otherwise we'll continue having to slog and claw for goals up forward and rely on the individual brilliance of Charlie and Harry every game to get wins.

I appreciate a reasoned response and we can agree to disagree.

You have much more faith than me in Williams up the ground

Everything seen and written about Moir speaks to his agility and forward craft...sure some Charlie like traits, but much more like Martin. If he plays next year it will be as a forward pocket or flank.

As will Fogarty, Motlop, Williams (IMO) and Owies if still around.

With the impacted drafts imminent I think it is far more important to get some midfield and KP talent locked down. Small forwards can be found late or traded for.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

'If there is 3 - 4 million tied up in those 7 players there is something massively wrong with our salary cap structure.

*disclaimer - probably 90% of that goes to Williams