Strategy 2024 Planning Thread

[Guardian Hawk]

Surprised no mention (perhaps too obvious?) but my first picked player next year will be [PLAYERCARD]Touk Miller[/PLAYERCARD].

120+ average the last 2 years, ultra consistent, improving team, new coach and most improtantly, will be available at a discount as his average this year has dropped to 101 as a result of injury.

Prior to injury, he was averaging 115.

To be able to get [PLAYERCARD]Touk Miller[/PLAYERCARD] at the same price as a [PLAYERCARD]Josh Daicos[/PLAYERCARD] or [PLAYERCARD]Reilly O'Brien[/PLAYERCARD] or [PLAYERCARD]Jack Viney[/PLAYERCARD] or [PLAYERCARD]Caleb Daniel[/PLAYERCARD] is an absolute no brainer.

 

[St Steady]

windhager to sail to Valhala

 

[TheArchitect]

What's the general rule on deciding who gets DPP each year. Is it still the 35% that we look at three times during the year, just all combined?

 

[Faz 2000]

My plan is to pick the best super premos, nail the rookies, get on-board the skyrocketing MPPers and upgrade to fallen premos about to explode at the right time, whilst ensuring good bye cover. I'll also retain plenty of trades for late season carnage and finals.

 

[stevebbb]

Will Dawson keep DEF DPP?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Will Dawson keep DEF DPP?

100% NOT !......Mid only

 

[stevebbb]

If you take Daicos D1, Sicily D2, English R1 and Trac F1 as your top pricers and captain options, can you save a couple hundred thousand and have a starting midfield of Brayshaw, Touk, Steele and Mills?


edit: just realised Brayshaw is averaging 105, and will likely increase that over the next month. He won't be very under-priced.
What about Touk, Steele and Mills M1 to M3? That's a power move. Rest of the team would be stupid strong.

 

[ubeaut]

If you take Daicos D1, Sicily D2, English R1 and Trac F1 as your top pricers and captain options, can you save a couple hundred thousand and have a starting midfield of Brayshaw, Touk, Steele and Mills?


edit: just realised Brayshaw is averaging 105, and will likely increase that over the next month. He won't be very under-priced.
What about Touk, Steele and Mills M1 to M3? That's a power move. Rest of the team would be stupid strong.

Not a bad idea. Need at least one super premo mid though, like Piggy or Bont

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

If Ziebell and Hall finish up Sheezel might be a good option next year.

 

[JuddgementDay]

I will have to review my team so that I can ignore the lessons and repeat the mistakes again

Seriously, this year was definitely different to last year (MPP).

This year the safe & popular picks were the way to go. So many teams are alike, it comes down to injuries, captain choices & a lot of luck!

Most PODs are punished, I can’t recall a good POD - well, if they are they are good, they are no longer PODs now anyway !

I’m not too sure how I will play next year as yet, but when push comes to shove - I prefer to have fun by taking some risks - therefore sabotaging my starting side

 

[kenneyswarriors]

I will have to review my team so that I can ignore the lessons and repeat the mistakes again

Seriously, this year was definitely different to last year (MPP).

This year the safe & popular picks were the way to go. So many teams are alike, it comes down to injuries, captain choices & a lot of luck!

Most PODs are punished, I can’t recall a good POD - well, if they are they are good, they are no longer PODs now anyway !

I’m not too sure how I will play next year as yet, but when push comes to shove - I prefer to have fun by taking some risks - therefore sabotaging my starting side

Excellent, year of the POD must be due

I just may try one or two

 

[jdstorm]

Understand where you're coming from .....in my case Fyfe didn't play after R1 .....and Bytel played his 2nd game for the year on the weekend ......both Bytel and Cunnington had big PS games .....so more the fool me

I agree though .....I held onto the rest to get more data ...... LOL Darcy came good as soon as I traded him

The point is at 96K ranking ......if you hold to get more data ....you potentially continue to slide, so you make decisions ....panic decisions, you wouldn't normally make at a higher rank

See what I think works is treat every player under 350k as a rookie. So if they spud up just trade down.

If you have 2 players in that range that spud up then I went 1 up 1 down so it worked for early upgrades.

That way it feels less like wasting a trade because you’re doing an upgrade.

I stay away from that 350-550 range like the plague unless it’s a proven premo FWD/DEF or off a discount.

I think that’s where the real risk exists because you need these players who have never been premiums to become premiums. Where as in the 250-350k range. If you plan your upgrade cadence needing extra trades you can still make it work and they can succeed in 2 ways.

1. Make 100k and be upgraded to any premo in 1 up 1 down trade (or even the rare 3for2)

2. Become a keeper and save you trades

 

[kyri]

Looking through my trade history is helping me plan for next season.

Few key notes off the top of my head.

Hold good rookies, even if they max out in price. If they are capable of scoring tons, they are worth keeping. Wilmot is a great example.

Trade out injured players. No more holding 3+ week injuries, Dunks with his two weeks is a perfect example of a good hold, however very risky. Setters and Hopper were great trade outs when they got injured, and would've been terrible holds.

Don't trade in hot shot players. Kosi, I am looking straight at you, flog. Ziebell was a proven risk, Kosi was a proven flop. Even HH wouldve been a disastrous trade in when I considered him around Round 6. JHF another example of early season purple patches not working out.

Keep top tier suspended players. At least we know they will be back. I knew as soon as Sicily left my team, I would be regretting it. JDG owners may disagree here.

2024 locks so far are Daicos Sicily Stewart Bont Oliver English and Dunks.

Dawson, Laird, Gulden, Taranto and Sheezel almost on that same list.

 

[kenneyswarriors]

Looking through my trade history is helping me plan for next season.

Few key notes off the top of my head.

Hold good rookies, even if they max out in price. If they are capable of scoring tons, they are worth keeping. Wilmot is a great example.

Trade out injured players. No more holding 3+ week injuries, Dunks with his two weeks is a perfect example of a good hold, however very risky. Setters and Hopper were great trade outs when they got injured, and would've been terrible holds.

Don't trade in hot shot players. Kosi, I am looking straight at you, flog. Ziebell was a proven risk, Kosi was a proven flop. Even HH wouldve been a disastrous trade in when I considered him around Round 6. JHF another example of early season purple patches not working out.

Keep top tier suspended players. At least we know they will be back. I knew as soon as Sicily left my team, I would be regretting it. JDG owners may disagree here.

2024 locks so far are Daicos Sicily Stewart Bont Oliver English and Dunks.

Dawson, Laird, Gulden, Taranto and Sheezel almost on that same list.

I just couldn't resist - Are you sure ?

"Trade out injured players. No more holding 3+ week injuries"

 

[Silky23]

D: Daicos, Stewart, Sicily
M: Bont, Oliver, Touk, Dunkley
R: English
F: Petracca

Sort out the rest later.

 

[THECHIEFTON]

Looking through my trade history is helping me plan for next season.

Few key notes off the top of my head.

Hold good rookies, even if they max out in price. If they are capable of scoring tons, they are worth keeping. Wilmot is a great example.

Trade out injured players. No more holding 3+ week injuries, Dunks with his two weeks is a perfect example of a good hold, however very risky. Setters and Hopper were great trade outs when they got injured, and would've been terrible holds.

Don't trade in hot shot players. Kosi, I am looking straight at you, flog. Ziebell was a proven risk, Kosi was a proven flop. Even HH wouldve been a disastrous trade in when I considered him around Round 6. JHF another example of early season purple patches not working out.

Keep top tier suspended players. At least we know they will be back. I knew as soon as Sicily left my team, I would be regretting it. JDG owners may disagree here.

2024 locks so far are Daicos Sicily Stewart Bont Oliver English and Dunks.

Dawson, Laird, Gulden, Taranto and Sheezel almost on that same list.

Wilmot did not show he was capable of scoring 100. It took Wilmot 9 games to score over 70. Took 16 to actually score 100. Absolutely noone saw him improving like he ended up doing.

Yes I traded him after round 8.

 

[stevebbb]

9/30 sorted

Daicos, Sheezel
Bont, Touk, Steele, Mills, Reid
English
Trac

 

[kyri]

Wilmot did not show he was capable of scoring 100. It took Wilmot 9 games to score over 70. Took 16 to actually score 100. Absolutely noone saw him improving like he ended up doing.

Yes I traded him after round 8.

I had Ginbey in mind, but he didn't turn out so good in the end I think, so I buckled and came up with Wilmot.

The Wilmot comment had job security in mind more than points. A good rookie is better off on your bench than traded out was my point.

I feel your pain though, I traded out Ginbey in R8 and Wilmot in R9.

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

I had Ginbey in mind, but he didn't turn out so good in the end I think, so I buckled and came up with Wilmot.

The Wilmot comment had job security in mind more than points. A good rookie is better off on your bench than traded out was my point.

I feel your pain though, I traded out Ginbey in R8 and Wilmot in R9.

Wilmot really took flight when Rich got dropped. That's not something that's easy to predict. Trading him out at his bye at $300k was the textbook move. Sometimes it back fires and the rookie improves (Daicos last year for example), usually it's the right thing to do though.

 

[Seymour Skinner]

Started $348k topped out at $445k. Neither a success nor a fail really.

Didn't most trade into Setterfield R3?
He averaged 77 for the next 7 weeks and went down before the byes, I'd say that's leaning more towards a fail.

 

[Northernsoul74]

9/30 sorted

Daicos, Sheezel
Bont, Touk, Steele, Mills, Reid
English
Trac

Would you pick English if he was playing for West Coast?

 

[Lolaser]

Loved reading this, think at the end of a season is the best time for learnings. At the start of the season it is easy to get sucked in by preseason reports, optimism for players and not remember the lessons you learnt last year.

A few lessons I've learnt from this year that I think I will be taking into next year:

1. Avoid paying for the $700k players (and to a lesser extent the top priced players in most lines). Oliver worked this year at the start and was a great captain option, but Laird, Miller, Neale and a few others were not good value options. Even Sicily, Petracca, Merrett, Sinclair, and a few others were good picks but wouldn't have been the best starting picks. They were all super high priced for their line and dropped in price after one or two below average scores.
   
   This learning might be more true for players that are more variance (Petracca/Sicily great examples). You can save the cash, get value else where for the first 5-10 rounds and pick them up at their cheapest point. Realistically, if you're going to finish at a high rank, you will need to hit value, so you may as well set yourself up to do so.
   
   This means I'll probably avoid most of Oliver, Bont, English, Daicos, Sicily etc. to start the season.
   
   
2. Despite point 1, you still need a few captain options in your side. This makes players like Bont, Oliver and English actually worth considering despite their price as it gives you the certainty in the captain spot.
   
   When picking your VC, try and pick the player who you think has the highest ceiling for the round (provided there is still a decent C option after). Too many weeks I took an Oliver or another safe VC and didn't pick the higher ceiling VC and got stuck with a 120. This is fine, but you're leaving the upside of great match-ups on the table.
   
   
3. Build a team structure that has players across the price points ($500k under value premo that you pick to break out or bounce back, $350k mid-pricer who you think may break out also, 200k rookie). If you have DPP and players at these price points, you'll be able to switch to the players that are actually going to break out, without having to mess up your entire team structure.
   
   
4. Plan for the byes from round one. It isn't fun, but just keep track of it. Doing this will mean you don't need to compromise your team with a bad upgrade for bye structure later.
   
   
5. No Charlie Constables - pick rookies who will get on the park and generate cash.
   
   
6. When beginning to upgrade, plan out your rookies and what prices they will be in two or three weeks based on projections. Also simulate best and worst case (what would happen if they actually did drop 100 on West Coast etc). Weigh this into your decisions accordingly and take some calculated risks.
7. For your first upgrades, back in the fallen premos who have dropped in price and for them to bounceback (unless there is an obvious injury). My first six or seven upgrades all fell into this category and it set me up to have cash at the end of the season to pick safe players then.
   
   
8. Resist the sugar rush of players who are spiking huge scores and going up for a few weeks. [PLAYERCARD]Noah Anderson[/PLAYERCARD] springs to mind here. One great game, but people chased the super high price and it cost them speed of upgrades later.
   
   
9. Upgrade as quickly as you can (ensuring rookies have maxed out), and once you begin, focus on chaining upgrades so that you remove rookies from the field as soon as possible. This doesn't mean picking duds, but backing in some fallen premos will help with this.
   
   
10. No [PLAYERCARD]Jeremy Cameron[/PLAYERCARD] (unless he is reeeeeally cheap).

Players I have my eye on:

1. Touk Miller - will be cheap, still 28, look for signs of going back to the midfield and outperforming his first average year in a while.
2. Sean Darcy - injury affected games will bring his average and price down. He will be a great value option compared to English (probably 550k vs. 700k) and may only underscore him by 8 points a game (even less maybe). This nets you a whole trade worth of value.
   
   
3. LDU if he is under $600k. Looks absolutely amazing and is primed to break out. Should also get better as North do in my opinion.
   
   
4. Jordan Ridley - Has looked amazing of late and some injury affected games and a shakey start may mean that he presents good value.
   
   
5. Jack Steele - similar trend here, but injury affected year, starting to come really good. If he has a full preseason, I'm all in on this one.

Will have a proper think about this at the end of the year, but just some of my initial thoughts.

 

[stevebbb]

Would you pick English if he was playing for West Coast?

Yep. Absolute freak, and his ruckwork and defensive marking keeps improving. Will surpass peak Grundy as that ball winning ruckman. Can see him averaging 130+ for years to come.

 

[Quazza]

Not putting my team together the day of opening bounce seems vital in 2024

 

[jdstorm]

There’s also the obligatory

Rookies Determine Structure

Don’t mess with Rucks.

Skew towards youth, durability and DPP

Pick Rucks from teams with Good midfields, forwards who are on good teams (or misclassified midfielders) and Defenders on teams likely to see the ball down back.

Finally. Pick a team that finished poorly the previous season who should improve due to draw/development as there’s a lot of points in a breakout team, moreso then betting on breakout players