Strategy 2024 Planning Thread

[Deadly6]

Walsh might be a lock priced at 103 (ahead of a $600k+ bloke; use the cash elsewhere)

Do we have to seriously consider George Hewett? Maybe getting dropped did him good.

No, is a mid pricer and won't be elite and won't make enough money priced at 80 odd.

 

[stevebbb]

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

View attachment 1807045

 

[A Bit Dusty]

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Duursma averaged 67 over 14 games so I gather you mean a Rookie?

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Duursma averaged 67 over 14 games so I gather you mean a Rookie?

His brother, will be a top 5 pick.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

Can someone post the injury discounts for games played/missed

 

[Maybe Tomorrow]

Can someone post the injury discounts for games played/missed

It's all speculation at this point. SC suit themselves/pull it out their arse.

Some players got 40% this year. Usually it's max 30% for missing the whole season.

 

[TheArchitect]

Might be old news, but looks like Jack Steele

9

Jack Steele

Age

30

Ht

187cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.9

5star

K

8.7

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

6.8

5star

CL

3.6

5star

D

21.3

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

16.8

4star

K

5.0

2star

HB

11.8

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

6.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

had surgery post final loss on an ankle:

Star Saints set for surgery ahead of crucial pre-season

St Kilda addresses a raft of injuries as it starts to prepare to take another step forward in 2024

www.afl.com.au

This, coupled with the fact that Ross said he had a "bit of an achilles" earlier in the year would explain the below average year.

One to look at in pre-season - could easily get above 105 again.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Touk looks better value for mine

With Anderson, Rowell and Flanders stepping up, Touk is no longer the stand out in the GC midfield like he used to be.

I think this will have an impact on his scoring, therefore I don't see him getting back to his previous averages.

A lot also depends on Hardwick's game style as well and how points friendly that will be for GC midfielders.

 

[Scythe]

View attachment 1807045

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Hi friends! Just checking in to see how everyone's going in my absence – I can see we've reached the Alex Witherden stage of the offseason again. Get it out of your system now x

 

[TheArchitect]

Hi friends! Just checking in to see how everyone's going in my absence – I can see we've reached the Alex Witherden stage of the offseason again. Get it out of your system now x

I was going to say….

Surely not!

 

[stevebbb]

Hi friends! Just checking in to see how everyone's going in my absence – I can see we've reached the Alex Witherden stage of the offseason again. Get it out of your system now x

Averaged 93 without Hurn. The thighmaster is gone, so there'll be plenty of ball down back, and kick-ins for Withergoat to pick up.

25 years old. Finished 8th in their BnF. Just got a contract extension, which was just a 1 year-er, so he's still playing for his life. Played every game this year except for when he got crunched by JOM in rd3 and then missed rd4.

If you're playing moneyball (like I am, because SC has gotten too predictable and boring AF), I reckon he's worth a punt.

 

[stevebbb]

Duursma averaged 67 over 14 games so I gather you mean a Rookie?

His younger brother Zane. Should go 3rd or 4th in the draft. He has talent for days. He should be MID/FWD along with Reid.

 

[jdstorm]

Averaged 93 without Hurn. The thighmaster is gone, so there'll be plenty of ball down back, and kick-ins for Withergoat to pick up.

25 years old. Finished 8th in their BnF. Just got a contract extension, which was just a 1 year-er, so he's still playing for his life. Played every game this year except for when he got crunched by JOM in rd3 and then missed rd4.

If you're playing moneyball (like I am, because SC has gotten too predictable and boring AF), I reckon he's worth a punt.

Just sounds like a waste of a trade when you have to trade him out having not made enough cash to make you rich and underscored vs real premos.

People in that 370- 500k range are usually a hard pass for me. That’s just asking for trouble

The most moneyball option is to find rookies who are the best bang for buck in a points per dollar sense.

 

[stevebbb]

Just sounds like a waste of a trade when you have to trade him out having not made enough cash to make you rich and underscored vs real premos.

People in that 370- 500k range are usually a hard pass for me. That’s just asking for trouble

The most moneyball option is to find rookies who are the best bang for buck in a points per dollar sense.

I'm picking him as a keeper. I think he can go 95-100 without Hurn in the side. I'll take that at D6 for $460k.

Also how is finding rookies moneyball? It's an essential part of SC because we don't have the salary to fill our teams with premos. Moneyball in SC terms is underpriced premos and midpricers.

SC has become too boring. Need to mix it up next year to stay interested, otherwise I'll give it up. I'm taking 3-4 god tier captain options, then I'm going full moneyball (see my team above).

 

[jdstorm]

I'm picking him as a keeper. I think he can go 95-100 without Hurn in the side. I'll take that at D6 for $460k.

Also how is finding rookies moneyball? It's an essential part of SC because we don't have the salary to fill our teams with premos. Moneyball in SC terms is underpriced premos and midpricers.

SC has become too boring. Need to mix it up next year to stay interested, otherwise I'll give it up. I'm taking 3-4 god tier captain options, then I'm going full moneyball (see my team above).

To me moneyball is about extracting value.

SuperCoach players max out at about 110-130 average depending on position. So the lower a player is priced the more value there is to extract.

With underpriced premiums in the 400k range you aren’t extracting much value vs their price ie priced at say 80 vs 95 average is only 15 points of value and you are losing points vs your top gun premos unless they become one.

With players in the 200-300k range you can get 60-80 points value per pick if you’re lucky. But realistically you should expect a 30-40 value increase per player at minimum. 400k + players don’t offer that unless they are superstars

Trades are a finite resource and you won’t trade these 400k players because they are performing just well enough to keep but not well enough to do well for you.

You will be stuck in no man’s land.

If you keep the strategy ie 4 captains + 6 premos and 12 rookies/moneyball picks in the 200-350 range on field you can have the same level of interest/risk but instead these moneyball picks can succeed in two ways.

1. As breakout premiums saving you a trade and setting you up for huge scores.
2. As rookies making 150-200k

The added bonus with this is your cash cow players are more secure and unlikely to get the dreaded Sub vest.

 

[TheArchitect]

Averaged 93 without Hurn. The thighmaster is gone, so there'll be plenty of ball down back, and kick-ins for Withergoat to pick up.

25 years old. Finished 8th in their BnF. Just got a contract extension, which was just a 1 year-er, so he's still playing for his life. Played every game this year except for when he got crunched by JOM in rd3 and then missed rd4.

If you're playing moneyball (like I am, because SC has gotten too predictable and boring AF), I reckon he's worth a punt.

How many 25 year olds that are actually rated by their club given a one year contract...

I think WC will find someone else to fill Hurns role tbh

 

[Blackhawk42]

The forward situation is going to be so interesting next year.

Likely that the top 8 forwards from this season won't be available in that position in 2024.

A safe option nobody is mentioning is Dylan Moore

8

Dylan Moore

Age

26

Ht

177cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.9

3star

K

5.1

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.2

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

. He's the one player who we know will have an identical role to this season. He started off slowly after averaging 94 in 2022, but came home strongly to average 91 for the duration.
117, 120, 90 and 102 in the final month of the season too.

Priced at around $500k, he's probably as safe as you'll get considering the lack of premium mids we'll have forward access to.

 

[stevebbb]

How many 25 year olds that are actually rated by their club given a one year contract...

I think WC will find someone else to fill Hurns role tbh

Fair point, but the Eagles have a putrid list, full of aging, out of form and injury prone players, they'll struggle to do anything.

I think Witherden plays every game next year and scores pretty well. If he doesn't, I'll cop it on the chin, trade him on and move on.


ps. is this why SC has become so boring? People online spend all their time arguing why people SHOULDN'T pick a player, instead of arguing why people SHOULD pick a player. I've had my share of decent overall finishes and cash league wins, I want entertainment now, I'd rather finish 10k with a few PODs and have a bit of fun on BF than have a team with 22 premos with 30%-60% ownership (like this year).

 

[stevebbb]

To me moneyball is about extracting value.

SuperCoach players max out at about 110-130 average depending on position. So the lower a player is priced the more value there is to extract.

With underpriced premiums in the 400k range you aren’t extracting much value vs their price ie priced at say 80 vs 95 average is only 15 points of value and you are losing points vs your top gun premos unless they become one.

With players in the 200-300k range you can get 60-80 points value per pick if you’re lucky. But realistically you should expect a 30-40 value increase per player at minimum. 400k + players don’t offer that unless they are superstars

Trades are a finite resource and you won’t trade these 400k players because they are performing just well enough to keep but not well enough to do well for you.

You will be stuck in no man’s land.

If you keep the strategy ie 4 captains + 6 premos and 12 rookies/moneyball picks in the 200-350 range on field you can have the same level of interest/risk but instead these moneyball picks can succeed in two ways.

1. As breakout premiums saving you a trade and setting you up for huge scores.
2. As rookies making 150-200k

The added bonus with this is your cash cow players are more secure and unlikely to get the dreaded Sub vest.

You're talking as if the $200k to $350k bracket is full of stars. This year, if you started 2 or 3 of Flanders, Bruhn, etc you were on the backfoot all season.

 

[A Bit Dusty]

This definately a work in progress but I will be going light in the Forward line to start the year and hope a few good rookies appear.

Defence: $ 3,127.000
Daicos $ 638,000 Stewart $ 625,000 Newman $ 550,000
Sheezle $ 550,000 Coleman $ 392,000 Coffield $124,000

Darcy $124,000 Rookie $124,000


Midfield: $ 3,927,000
Bont $ 715,000 Oliver $ 665,000 Green $ 615,000
Walsh $ 565,000 Mills $ 485,000 Parfitt $ 262,000
Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000

Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000

Ruck: $ 1,602,000
English $ 710,0000 Marshall $ 622,000 Sweet $ 270,000

Forward: $ 1,209,000
Lynch $ 283,000 Dempsey $182,000 Bauer $124,000
Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $124,000
Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000

Total : $9,865,000

 

[TheArchitect]

I’ll throw out a few names that haven’t been mentioned much

-Philippou
-E Hewett
-C Mackenzie
-R Ginbey

Expecting natural growth from all of them. All under $300k except Ginbey (but he can score very well when playing)

 

[A Bit Dusty]

I’ll throw out a few names that haven’t been mentioned much

-Philippou
-E Hewett
-C Mackenzie
-R Ginbey

Expecting natural growth from all of them. All under $300k except Ginbey (but he can score very well when playing)

There is a good reason why non of them have been mentioned. Second year players can be underwhelming sometimes and hoping for a breakout year normally dosen't happen unless they are a gun like Daicos or Sheezle. It will be intersting to see how coaches approach next year with not many decent Midpricers under $400k next year.

 

[TheArchitect]

There is a good reason why non of them have been mentioned. Second year players can be underwhelming sometimes and hoping for a breakout year normally dosen't happen unless they are a gun like Daicos or Sheezle. It will be intersting to see how coaches approach next year with not many decent Midpricers under $400k next year.

Yes at times. They can also be the perfect stepping stone after making a quick $100K - $200K. See Rachele and Owens and (eventually) Hobbs in 2023.

 

[Northernsoul74]

This definately a work in progress but I will be going light in the Forward line to start the year and hope a few good rookies appear.

Defence: $ 3,127.000
Daicos $ 638,000 Stewart $ 625,000 Newman $ 550,000
Sheezle $ 550,000 Coleman $ 392,000 Coffield $124,000

Darcy $124,000 Rookie $124,000


Midfield: $ 3,927,000
Bont $ 715,000 Oliver $ 665,000 Green $ 615,000
Walsh $ 565,000 Mills $ 485,000 Parfitt $ 262,000
Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000

Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000

Ruck: $ 1,602,000
English $ 710,0000 Marshall $ 622,000 Sweet $ 270,000

Forward: $ 1,209,000
Lynch $ 283,000 Dempsey $182,000 Bauer $124,000
Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $124,000
Rookie $ 124,000 Rookie $ 124,000

Total : $9,865,000

That’s a huge spend in defence.