AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 1

[balmainforever]

 

[Rank]

It was close. He kicked 1.2 , but that last kick in the last quarter is usually his bread and butter.

Sprayed a couple earlier as well, shoulda kicked 2 but that's the nature of this shit. Back at it again tomorrow

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Not to be a hindsight hero, but those odds were crazy looking back ($15+ on BF?).

Carlton were atrocious in the backend of last year, losing 7 of their final 10 games, with their 3 wins coming against the 3 bottom teams (Richmond, North, WC).

The crazy thing is everyone wrote it off to them having injuries, but they had arguably more injuries tonight than they did when they fell of last year, and were still a 50 point favourite...

 

[Jugada]

If you only thought the odds were crazy post match then they probably weren't tbh

 

[Jcpdragonx]

I know its not r1 but hawks are 1.51 against carlton next week. would be shocked if its not a demolition.

 

[freo_leo29]

Who is our Errol Gulden round 1 this year?

Have I missed the boat

 

[freo_leo29]

Sam Dekoning playing ruck

1 @2.50
2@13
3@51

Liam Reidy is not an AFL ruckman, SDK is going to run rings around him, expect him to bob up forward with Reidy trailing by 5 metres

 

[Del125763]

Western Australias number 1 sports betting company, TAB Touch WA are offering a $10 free hit for the Same Game Multi for Round 1 between Hawthorn and Essendon. And no FootyStar#1 I dont work for a bookie, as you queried me in the last weeks Round 0 post.

Just a little bit of promotion for our good friends from TAB Touch WA.

 

[Del125763]

Also done a slightly alternate bet from the above , as Harry Jones is the risky leg there. Swapped that for 2+ to an anytime, and the odds are $476.00 keeping all the other legs the same.

 

[Del125763]

I believe this bet has a greater than 0.25% chance of happening.

Sportsbet Free Hit

Harrison Jones To score the Most Goals from this Group
Total Match Points 171-180 pts
Isaac Kako AGS in 1st Half



Odds: $426


Harry Jones gets the 3rd best defender tonight in a fairly revamped Essendon forward line in 2025. 2 goals could finish in a dead heat I believe, 3 could very well win it.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Keeping it simple this week.

Geelong -13.5
Pies
GWS
Crows -19.5
@10.40

 

[gillon]

I believe this bet has a greater than 0.25% chance of happening.

Sportsbet Free Hit

Harrison Jones To score the Most Goals from this Group
Total Match Points 171-180 pts
Isaac Kako AGS in 1st Half

View attachment 2248849

Odds: $426


Harry Jones gets the 3rd best defender tonight in a fairly revamped Essendon forward line in 2025. 2 goals could finish in a dead heat I believe, 3 could very well win it.

He’s been playing wing since the end of last year. He could drift down though

 

[IDIG]

I like Cottrell as well. Kicked 1.4 in their recent very one sided preseason game and more importantly, named in the forward pocket (lel).

$2.80 to snag 2 seems like decent value as you'd expect there to be multiple, multiple goal kickers tonight.

Also, like Docherty for 20+ disposals @ $1.94.

Last 5 against Richmond has covered 20 comfortably (25, 31, 26, 24, 26). Those numbers were obviously from a few seasons back but tonight should be pretty bruise free and open so would expect him to get a fair bit of it off halfback/wing with Newman out.

Have taken a free swing at both legs @ $5 on sb.

Ended up getting refunded because of Docherty starting as sub so went with Cottrell 2+/Cerra 25+ @ $4.

Cottrell 1.2 with a pretty kickable one late. Cerra 26 and Docherty ended up with 14 in less than a qtr i'm pretty sure so kinda feel like i wasn't too far off the mark with those picks.

 

[Selim]

Who is our Errol Gulden round 1 this year?

Have I missed the boat

i think we all are down bad cause of carlton lol

so we need to find one hopefully in this next game

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I believe this bet has a greater than 0.25% chance of happening.

Odds: $426

And this is why, whenever some n00b comes along and questions your place on this board, I for one will fly the Degen flag.

 

[Rank]

Jones 2+
Ginnivan 2+ @12.75 SB free hit
Just watch the campaigners kick 1.2 and a out of bounds

 

[TheCandyMan]

Durham 3+
Nash 15+

$36 sb free hit

On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[gillon]

Langford 2-5 SB

2.45, 5.90, 15, 51

 

[Rank]

Jones 1, Ginnivan 1, Watson 1, Newcombe 20 d, McGrath 20 d, Merrett 25 d, Scrimshaw 15 d. @9.20 bet365 free hit

 

[Atavistic]

Martin 2, Perkins 2, Day 2 @ 46 (B365 free hit)

 

[TheCandyMan]

Draper 3+
Durham 2+

$86 b365 free hit

On Pixel 6 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Baggers]

I know its not r1 but hawks are 1.51 against carlton next week. would be shocked if its not a demolition.

I would back the Hawks at the line of -12.5 with absolute confidence as well. Paying $1.90.
Just don't see how we finish within 2 goals of them.

 

[fpm84]

B365 free hit:

Kako 2+
Watson AGS
Gresham AGS
Newcombe 20+
Merrett 25+
@9

 

[toenail11]

toenail11 where are you son

Somewhere in Thailand but I’ll be watching tonight

Sb free hit straight from the hotel bathtub

2 Langford
1 kako caddy chol
@5

 

[HTPunter]

Not to be a hindsight hero, but those odds were crazy looking back ($15+ on BF?).

Carlton were atrocious in the backend of last year, losing 7 of their final 10 games, with their 3 wins coming against the 3 bottom teams (Richmond, North, WC).

The crazy thing is everyone wrote it off to them having injuries, but they had arguably more injuries tonight than they did when they fell of last year, and were still a 50 point favourite...

Missing Curnow, Newman & part player Hollands & Cincotta

V

Last year missing Curnow, TDK, Cerra, Docherty, Walsh, Williams & McGovern at times in back end of season

It was the right odds. It was just a once in a decade type upset. Probably a once in 15 years type one…

From their best side of 2024 Richmond have lost Prestia, Balta, Rioli, Bolton, Baker, Graham, Dusty, Pickett and regained an aging Lynch. They also have Lefau & Clarke out, and lost Grimes who didn’t play much. Crazy win.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Missing Curnow, Newman & part player Hollands & Cincotta

V

Last year missing Curnow, TDK, Cerra, Docherty, Walsh, Williams & McGovern at times in back end of season

It was the right odds. It was just a once in a decade type upset. Probably a once in 15 years type one…

From their best side of 2024 Richmond have lost Prestia, Balta, Rioli, Bolton, Baker, Graham, Dusty, Pickett and regained an aging Lynch. They also have Lefau & Clarke out, and lost Grimes who didn’t play much. Crazy win.

Didn't play last year: Saad, Silvagni, Haynes, Camporeale, Cottrell, Evans, McKay, De Koning, Cerra, Fogarty

Didn't play this year: Newman, Lewis Young, Cincotta, E. Hollands, Owies, M. Kennedy, Pittonet, Binns, Durdin, Carroll

I don't think these differences between last night where they were a 48 point favourite, compared to late last year when they were a 3 point underdog to bottom 4 West Coast, are anywhere near enough to justify such a swing; even if their opponent was quite a bit stronger.

Maybe it's just me