List Mgmt. 2025 List Management discussion

[Dr Spaceman]

Mid season draft deadline.

Cordy: “Nah, I’ll be good to go again in about 10 weeks boss”

Dow: “Knee’s feeling a lot better. Reckon I’ll be ready by about round 22”

King: “Just a few weeks away Ross”

Saints: “We have no list spots available and therefore won’t be participating in the mid season draft”

Next Day

“Saints suffer four season ending injuries in mid week training horror!”

IT’S THE ST KILDA WAY

 

[dudeintheswamp]

Anyone know what time the deadline is today? Haven't been able to spot it anywhere.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Mid season draft deadline.

Cordy: “Nah, I’ll be good to go again in about 10 weeks boss”

Dow: “Knee’s feeling a lot better. Reckon I’ll be ready by about round 22”

King: “Just a few weeks away Ross”

Saints: “We have no list spots available and therefore won’t be participating in the mid season draft”

Next Day

“Saints suffer four season ending injuries in mid week training horror!”

IT’S THE ST KILDA WAY

Have we ever actually played a player we picked up in the mid season draft during the year we got him? ( Just checked, Cooper played a few ).
Very unlikely to save us.
We've got an irish rookie coming, maybe he will fix the team.

 

[g_TRAIN]

Selecting a player in the mid-season draft uses up a list spot that would otherwise be available in the national draft.

So the club has to weigh up where they’re more likely to find better talent.

If we don’t open up a spot via the LTI list, that’s likely the reason why.

 

[Richter]

If Nas is already locked away and they're waiting for a win to then announce it, it might be a while.

Maybe it'll be announced on the bye week... we shouldn't lose that weekend... though with the way we're currently playing we might contrive a way to do so...

 

[11men1cup]

We'll be waiting for news to filter through today about what the 4 clubs ahead of us are doing before we commit to putting a player on the LTI.

 

[Ads734]

Screw TDK we should be looking at Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

, the type of guy Ross could get to Brownlow level imo

 

[BrutThough]

Screw TDK we should be looking at Sam Walsh, the type of guy Ross could get to Brownlow level imo

Not a free agent

 

[PJays]

Not a free agent

RFA end 2026

Get TDK this year, reduces chances of targeting Walsh next year (or other mids via trade, this year or next)

 

[jumperfan]

Screw TDK we should be looking at Sam Walsh, the type of guy Ross could get to Brownlow level imo

That WalshistheGoat guy on all the Saints main board threads would have a meltdown haha

 

[pebblesofsand]

Selecting a player in the mid-season draft uses up a list spot that would otherwise be available in the national draft.

So the club has to weigh up where they’re more likely to find better talent.

If we don’t open up a spot via the LTI list, that’s likely the reason why.

Cordy and Dow are going to miss at least the next 6 weeks anyway so whack them on the LTI and get a look at a couple of smokies who are happy with a 6 month contract.

Worst thing is they get delisted at the end of the year.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Saw the Morris piece and he was putting it along the lines of TDK costing us so much salary that we’ll need to move on Marshall. Then started yapping about other clubs moving on rucks in a “domino effect”.

Just speculating as he is known to do.

“It would set off an unprecedented chain reaction according to the clubs and managers I spoke to today”

Do you really think he just sits on his hands all day and makes stuff up when he has a phone and can make a bunch of calls?

People bag him but he’s been on the money with a lot of mail that proved to be correct in the last couple of years.

He didn’t win the media award because people like his personality!

 

[Saintos The ITK]

I’m a week behind here but there’s a guy in one of the Saints Facebook groups that’s absolutely adamant that he’s already signed as well (assuming it’s not you!).

View attachment 2326221
View attachment 2326222

I was on the piss with Brad the other day and told him.

 

[The Punter]

“It would set off an unprecedented chain reaction according to the clubs and managers I spoke to today”

Do you really think he just sits on his hands all day and makes stuff up when he has a phone and can make a bunch of calls?

People bag him but he’s been on the money with a lot of mail that proved to be correct in the last couple of years.

He didn’t win the media award because people like his personality!

I reckon Morris called a selection of clubs and managers to float the idea contained in his story.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Against the backdrop of a weak draft that Twomey just named like 10 blokes across the last 2 drafts who would all go number 1 in this draft.

Seeing the immediate value of a solitary first round pick that’s like pick 10+ before an academy/FS bid - in a draft where there is plenty of them, is not a good deal. That’s just trading talent to say you gained a first rounder. It isn’t tactical or thought out well.

It seems to me that you’re assuming we’d use that pick in the draft though, when that could easily be far from the case.

It’s the sort of pick you can in turn flip for a guy like Bergman, or you could use it to trade up in the draft, etc.

With guys as experienced as Gubby, SOS and Dalrymple on board, with presumably input from Ross, I highly doubt they’re not thinking it through.

 

[aussierulesrules]

It’s true we must pay 95% of the cap. So we are literally forced to pay somebody next year.

What you’re ignoring is the length of the deal, and the impact that can have on other possibilities in that journey.

Who knows which mids become available at the end of 2026, or the end of 2027? Signing De Koning may reduce short term excess cap, but limits long-term flexibility.

Clubs don’t win flags by massively overpaying players.

Clubs win flags by creating good culture which allows them to underpay players.

A lot of that is fair, but

The only players that are worth this type of contract are generational stars. Prime Buddy, Prime Ablett jr, Dusty, Dangerfield, Bontempelli etc. Midfielders or match-winning forwards who are consistently top 5, top 10 in the AFL.

Gaz Jnr reportedly signed for $9mil over 5 years ($1.8mil PA) way back in 2010, when the salary caps were a fraction of what they are now, so all the way back then he was reportedly on more than we’re reportedly offering TDK.

His deal would presumably be north of $2.5mil PA on a percentage of the salary cap basis now, and possibly close to $3mil, and guys like prime Buddy and Dusty would also require deals well north of $2mil PA from now on, to come to a club like us.

So you need to put things into perspective.

Our offer to TDK (and reportedly the one we made Callaghan) are well short of what “prime Gaz” and co could command on a deal for the next 7 years on the open market.

Not some ruckman who’s turning 26 and whose best season was 7th in the B&F of a team who snuck into finals.

It is somewhat excessive, but nowhere near as much as you think.

Those guys you mentioned would laugh if we came to them with an offer of just $1.7mil PA going forward to come to us.

 

[ThomasR]

Cordy and Dow are going to miss at least the next 6 weeks anyway so whack them on the LTI and get a look at a couple of smokies who are happy with a 6 month contract.

Worst thing is they get delisted at the end of the year.

I imagine they would want Dow playing footy before the end of the year and without another LTI before round 18 there would be no way to get him back onto the list, even after the 6 weeks has passed. I also doubt there is enough genuine evidence of a long-term injury for the AFL to approve it, given he was 4-5 weeks away on last week's injury report.

Would be flabbergasted if we don't move Cordy onto the LTI though. Hopefully JSOS (and not the rehab physio) has identified some talent coming through for us

 

[aussierulesrules]

This excludes the most important point

Does Bergman improve St Kilda enough to justify giving up what’s seemingly going to be pick 6-9 in the open pool this year

No chance

I’m a big fan of Bergman as a player but I’d only want him for a late first

There’s no way we’d be trading a pick like 6 for Bergman. Worst case scenario we’d split the pick and trade one of the picks and keep the other.

The rest of the year will be interesting. I see he attended 14 centre bounces again on the weekend, and had 23 (@78%) and a goal, to go with 7 inside 50’s, 7 score involvements, 5 intercept possessions and 550m-gained.

And while he’s obviously not a pinpoint kick, he is a thumping kick, so his kicks travel a long way and get there in a hurry, so if he’s kicking it from a centre clearance for instance, he can get the ball to 20-30m out and give his side a chance to either mark it, or lock it in deep.

Petracca is one of the guns of the comp and he’s a similar quality kick. Very long, but not accurate. As of a week or two ago, only 1 of his 45 kicks inside 50 for the year had been marked!

 

[PJays]

A lot of that is fair, but


Gaz Jnr reportedly signed for $9mil over 5 years ($1.8mil PA) way back in 2010, when the salary caps were a fraction of what they are now, so all the way back then he was reportedly on more than we’re reportedly offering TDK.

This is a bad example and doesn't make your point, for a few reasons

1. Ablett signed a front ended deal- with Gold Coast knowing most of their list would be draft picks- unlike St Kilda with others like King, NWM, Higgins, potentially Phillipou commanding big money in coming years

2. The AFL gave Gold Coast a specific salary cap exemption allowing them to sign him

3. Ablett was earning almost double the next highest paid player in the comp at the time. It was unprecedented and hasn't been repeated by anyone since

His deal would presumably be north of $2.5mil PA on a percentage of the salary cap basis now, and possibly close to $3mil, and guys like prime Buddy and Dusty would also require deals well north of $2mil PA

Let's talk Buddy as a better example.

The AFL TPP was $9.92 million in 2014 and it's $17.7 million in 2025.

Buddy signed for $10 million over 9 years (average $1.11 mil/year). This is slightly more than TDK offer of $12.5mil/7 years in today's terms (average $1.79 million). But not much. And Buddy is an all-time great.

Our offer to TDK (and reportedly the one we made Callaghan) are well short of what “prime Gaz” and co could command on a deal for the next 7 years on the open market.

On the contrary it will make TDK the highest paid player in the league.

In 2023

Of the 19 players who reached seven-figure salaries last year, eight were paid more than $1.2 million, five received between $1.1 and $1.2 million, and six received between $1 and $1.1 million.

Even adding 3 years of salary increases to 2026, very few will be on $1.5mil or $1.6mil- and St Kilda is offering an average of $1.8mil.

It is somewhat excessive, but nowhere near as much as you think.

I'm pretty sure I've demonstrated it's excessive.

How excessive depends on how you rate TDK.

But for me, he's about to turn 26, he's played 88 games in his career so has questionable durability, and he's never been in the top 15 or 20 players in the comp or close to it. This contract reduces our ability to get midfielders in future years. So it's just a bad idea.

Those guys you mentioned would laugh if we came to them with an offer of just $1.7mil PA going forward to come to us.

We don't have to spend that kind of money on anyone.

But I'd rather offer say $2mil to Butters (a game breaking midfielder) than $1.8mil on a ruckman.

Or, try to find a few midfielders to trade in and overpay them - since we need mids.

You can get an average, competitive ruck for literally a 3rd of what we're offering TDK.

 

[Broski]

Apparently we have put a bit of work into Burmeister leading into the mid-season draft. I guess we would be deciding whether to shake hands with Cordy or pass on putting him on the LTI.

 

[aussierulesrules]

people on here were chest beating about responsible salary cap management when talking about 950k for battle vs 800k.

now we are talking insane cash for TDK plus needing to find a battle replacement. by all accounts we are about to offer 800-900k for aleer.

The difference though is that we got what turned out to be pick 10 in a very strong draft for Battle, whereas Aleer will presumably cost something north of 20 in a much weaker draft.

Battle is a rock solid “B-grader”, like we hope Aleer will be, if we get him, whereas Tauru could be anything.

So effectively it’s swapping Battle for (a slightly younger) Aleer and trading up from 20+ in a weak draft to Tauru in a strong one.

Risky, but with the potential to pay off well if Tauru reaches his potential.

 

[Saint Shags]

So how is that we, with some fairly glaring holes and LTI are not willing to take the risk on players. Yet Collingwood who sit on the top of the ladder have placed two on the LTI list so they have two spots open.

Make it make sense please.

 

[BrutThough]

So how is that we, with some fairly glaring holes and LTI are not willing to take the risk on players. Yet Collingwood who sit on the top of the ladder have placed two on the LTI list so they have two spots open.

Make it make sense please.

They have 2 long term injures while we don't.

 

[stavro#4]

It seems to me that you’re assuming we’d use that pick in the draft though, when that could easily be far from the case.

It’s the sort of pick you can in turn flip for a guy like Bergman, or you could use it to trade up in the draft, etc.

With guys as experienced as Gubby, SOS and Dalrymple on board, with presumably input from Ross, I highly doubt they’re not thinking it through.

I have little interest in splitting or flipping a top 10 pick in a weak draft.

If there is too end quality it’s going in the early picks.

 

[aussierulesrules]

This is a bad example and doesn't make your point, for a few reasons

1. Ablett signed a front ended deal- with Gold Coast knowing most of their list would be draft picks- unlike St Kilda with others like King, NWM, Higgins, potentially Phillipou commanding big money in coming years

2. The AFL gave Gold Coast a specific salary cap exemption allowing them to sign him

3. Ablett was earning almost double the next highest paid player in the comp at the time. It was unprecedented and hasn't been repeated by anyone since



Let's talk Buddy as a better example.

The AFL TPP was $9.92 million in 2014 and it's $17.7 million in 2025.

Buddy signed for $10 million over 9 years (average $1.11 mil/year). This is slightly more than TDK offer of $12.5mil/7 years in today's terms (average $1.79 million). But not much. And Buddy is an all-time great.



On the contrary it will make TDK the highest paid player in the league.

In 2023



Even adding 3 years of salary increases to 2026, very few will be on $1.5mil or $1.6mil- and St Kilda is offering an average of $1.8mil.


I'm pretty sure I've demonstrated it's excessive.

How excessive depends on how you rate TDK.

But for me, he's about to turn 26, he's played 88 games in his career so has questionable durability, and he's never been in the top 15 or 20 players in the comp or close to it. This contract reduces our ability to get midfielders in future years. So it's just a bad idea.


We don't have to spend that kind of money on anyone.

But I'd rather offer say $2mil to Butters (a game breaking midfielder) than $1.8mil on a ruckman.

Or, try to find a few midfielders to trade in and overpay them - since we need mids.

You can get an average, competitive ruck for literally a 3rd of what we're offering TDK.

No matter how you spin it, it still took an offer of $1.8mil PA 15 years ago to get a guy the calibre of prime Gaz to go to a low profile club.

$1.7mil PA probably will make TDK the highest paid player in the league, but I guarantee you it won’t be for long.

Mac Andrew just signed what was described as the “richest deal of all time” and he’s no better than TDK. It took a deal that was reported to be over $1.3mil PA to get him to stay AT HIS OWN CLUB.

While North just signed LDU- who hasn’t made an AA squad and didn’t have a coaches vote for the year to that point- for a reported $1.3mil PA, to also STAY AT HIS OWN CLUB.

So to get guys the calibre of Andrew, LDU and Finn Callaghan (who are on par with TDK) to change clubs, you’re presumably looking north of $1.5mil PA, unless you’re a very attractive “destination club”.

Something we are not. Hence we have to offer these guys $1.7mil PA.

While for us to even get guys like prime Gaz or Buddy to even consider us there would need to be a 2 at the start of our yearly offer for them to even begin considering it.

$2.2mil PA would probably be the bare minimum.