AFL 2026 AFL Brownlow

[the_big_sav]

If 30 is the new minimum here are some thoughts (odds are sportsbet)

Daicos ($5) will only need to fart and have 2 votes, just needs pies to stay top 6

Bont ($10) had 6 votes at round 15 and finished with 25. Treloar fit will pinch a few as a proven vote getter but a fit bont and 14+ wins from dogs could get 30

Bailey ($18). Just needs another top 4 season from Geelong and he'll go close. Unless Holmes breaks out.

Cerong ($34) and Brayshaw ($41) steal from each other too much for either to get 30 unless freo have a 16-18 win season

Gulden ($41) is a big vote getter and Sydney should have a bit of spike back to 14-15 wins. Heeney and Warner probably make it like freo and make it hard for 1 to get 30

As a cash out option if offered Davies-Uniacke ($101). We play Port home, Eagles away, Ess, Carl, Bris and Rich in the first 6 and could be 4/2 or 5/1. LDU is a down hill skier and could poll well in these games before going back to playing a quarter here and there when we start to play real sides after that. Maybe even a sneaky leader at round 5 or 6 bet when it's offered

 

[sohohoho]

Rowell just won it with Nando as a team mate so think you can throw out the steal votes thing.

one thing is obvious you need to overpoll your expected votes by a considerable amount to win this these days and that is what looks to be Nick's biggest handicap.

He polls basically what he should each year, Bont is another who never overpolls as his strong games are so good, he doesn't poll in the others.

 

[the_big_sav]

Rowell just won it with Nando as a team mate so think you can throw out the steal votes thing.

one thing is obvious you need to overpoll your expected votes by a considerable amount to win this these days and that is what looks to be Nick's biggest handicap.

He polls basically what he should each year, Bont is another who never overpolls as his strong games are so good, he doesn't poll in the others.

The trend seems to be the winner under polls the next year. Rowell ando touk and petrecca surely none of those get to 30.

I dont know who else could over poll so much from a top team

Merrett is unchallenged but not enough wins

Newcombe to me isn't a 30 plus roller

Green and Callaghan got in each other's way and dont see gws being a top 4 team to get the extra votes

 

[5 Bucks]

Umps getting access to stats is huge.

If you want another cash out option I don't think LDU is the guy, but Sheezel is primed to do something special this year. Already equalled the most disposals in a match as a 20 year old and Clarko will surely play him in the midfield full time in season four. Rounds 18-23 in 2024 saw him poll 11 votes and the Roos only won 2 of those games. Bloke could average the most disposals in the AFL and the umps might get lazy and just look at the stats and give him 2 votes for being the main disposal winner in losing sides, and he'll poll some 3's in wins because he's a gun and will deserve them.

 

[Pablito]

Sam Walsh

18

Sam Walsh

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.1

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.6

5star

M

5.1

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

3.4

5star

No current season stats available

D

26.2

5star

K

15.4

5star

HB

10.8

5star

M

6.0

5star

T

3.2

5star

CL

4.8

5star

getting a full preseason.

Cripps to play more up forward.

$34

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Brownlow punting in mid January.

What could go wrong.

 

[the_big_sav]

Brownlow punting in mid January.

What could go wrong.

Isn't this the degen board?

 

[ExchangeStatMan]

Umps getting access to stats is huge.

Its the first I have heard of that. If so you have a case in point. Any detail to what level of stats we are talking about? Am assuming things off the AFL website?

 

[sohohoho]

Was mentioned last month but not sure been approved yet.
Would just be what is on the afl site/app

Hopefully doesn't sway them too much or this shit is dead

 

[HeathySure]

Every winner since 2018 has been an extracting inside mid. Rowel massively overpolled in 2024 and i was pretty confident he would finish high in 2025.
Last years over poller was Taranto, i dont think he can win unless Tigers win 10 games which is unlikely, but he might be good for top 10 bets

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Neale surely overs at 51.
Polls 3 votes having 13 touches in some games

 

[KENT2008]

There goes the randomness and unpredictability of the brownlow that allowed long odds shots to win

 

[5 Bucks]

There goes the randomness and unpredictability of the brownlow that allowed long odds shots to win

I wouldn't be so sure that it will be more predictable. Yes, it will eliminate the howlers but the umps might start to reward forwards who kick bags, or they may not. We still have no idea about that. Different umpires are going to value different things. Does 20 touches and 2 goals beat 30 touches as an extracting breakaway mid? Who knows.

Plus there wasn't much randomness in the actual winner of the award. Look up the correlation between contested possession and the winners, and for the past 15 years or something there has only been one winner who wasn't top 5 for contested possession, and that was Dusty (7th) who was so obviously going to win it. Rowell was the only real contender to be in the top 5 last year so it was no shock to see him take the medal home. He got votes he didn't deserve but overall he was a deserving winner based on stats and history.

 

[toxic]

Sam Flanders at $150

 

[5 Bucks]

Sam Flanders at $150

Was 2nd in the AFL for disposals in 2024 but he isn't damaging and has to outpoll NAS and that's going to be a tough ask. May be a cash out option and he is $201 on Neds/Lads

 

[C_Turn]

Butters @ $15 in contract year has me interested

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Neale surely overs at 51.
Polls 3 votes having 13 touches in some games

Was 81 all summer. Unbelievable price. Will be a contender.

 

[NSWCROW]

BROWNCROW MEDAL

Rd 0

Syd v Carl
3 - Mcinerney
2 - Gulden
1 - Walsh

GC v Gee
3 - Petracca
2 - Humphrey
1 - Miller

GWS v Haw
3 - Stringer
2 - Oliver
1 - Coniglio

Bris v WB
3 - Neale
2 - Richards
1 - C Cameron

STK v Coll
3 - N Daicos
2 - Sinclair
1 - J Daicos



LEADERBOARD after rd 0
3 - N Daicos, Petracca, Neale, Mcinerney, Stringer
2 - Gulden, Richards, Oliver, Sinclair, Humphrey
1 - Walsh, Miller, J Daicos, Coniglio, C Cameron

 

[Geelong_Bisons_#36]

Was 81 all summer. Unbelievable price. Will be a contender.

Yeah I got on at 81. Could be in with a shout if first game is anything to go by

 

[The Tip Jar]

Our model's Round 0 Brownlow votes are in.

Sydney v Carlton
3. J. McInerney
2. E. Gulden
1. I. Heeney

Gold Coast v Geelong
3. C. Petracca
2. B. Humphrey
1. T. Miller

GWS v Hawthorn
3. J. Stringer
2. C. Oliver
1. F. Callaghan

Brisbane v Bulldogs
3. E. Richards
2. C Cameron
1. L Neale

St Kilda v Collingwood
3. N. Daicos
2. J. Sinclair
1. J. Daicos

--

Projected Top 5 (season-long) after Round 0
1. N. Daicos (40)
2. M. Bontempelli (29)
3. B. Smith (27)
=6. F. Callaghan, N. Anderson, C. Serong (25)

Full leaderboard and future projections on the site.

 

[NSWCROW]

BROWNCROW MEDAL
Rd 1

Carl V Rich
3 - Cripps
2 - Jagga
1 - Hewett

Haw v Ess
3 - Merrett
2 - Ward
1 - sicily

WB v Gws
3 - Bont
2 - Naughton
1 - Callaghan

Geel v Freo
3 - Jackson
2 - Holmes
1 - serong

syd v Bris
3 - Blakey
2 - Amartey
1 - Mcinerney

Coll v Adel
3 - Milera
2 - N Daicos
1 - Houston

NM v Port
3 - D stephens
2 - Parker
1 - sheezel

Melb v stk
3 - M hall
2 - Van Rooyan
1 - Gawn

GC v WC
3 - Petracca
2 - Anderson
1 - Witts

 

[NSWCROW]

LEADERBORAD after rd 1

6 - Petracca
5 - N Daicos
4 - Mcinerney
3 - Neale, Bont, Cripps, Merrett, Jackson, Milera, stephens, Hall, stringer
2 - Anderson, Gulden, Holmes, sinclair, Richards, Jagga, Ward, Oliver, Naughton, Amartey, Humphrey, JVR, Parker
1 - Gawn, Callaghan, serong, sheezel, Walsh, Hewett, Miller, J Daicos, Coniglio, C Cameron, sicily, Houston, Witts

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

BROWNCROW MEDAL
Rd 1

Carl V Rich
3 - Cripps
2 - Jagga
1 - Hewett

Haw v Ess
3 - Merrett
2 - Ward
1 - sicily

WB v Gws
3 - Bont
2 - Naughton
1 - Callaghan

Geel v Freo
3 - Jackson
2 - Holmes
1 - serong

syd v Bris
3 - Blakey
2 - Amartey
1 - Mcinerney

Coll v Adel
3 - Milera
2 - N Daicos
1 - Houston

NM v Port
3 - D stephens
2 - Parker
1 - sheezel

Melb v stk
3 - M hall
2 - Van Rooyan
1 - Gawn

GC v WC
3 - Petracca
2 - Anderson
1 - Witts

Thanks for posting your votes mate but do you think Merrett gets the 3 in that game? Most influential player on the ground? Very hard to pick a guy from Hawthorn I agree. Do you think umpires will just be giving the votes off stats this year?

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Thanks for posting your votes mate but do you think Merrett gets the 3 in that game? Most influential player on the ground? Very hard to pick a guy from Hawthorn I agree. Do you think umpires will just be giving the votes off stats this year?

If Merrett gets the 3 in that game, he can spend the next few rounds at the count jotting his winner speech on the back of a napkin.

 

[ash_1050]

Thanks for posting your votes mate but do you think Merrett gets the 3 in that game? Most influential player on the ground? Very hard to pick a guy from Hawthorn I agree. Do you think umpires will just be giving the votes off stats this year?

Essendon got smacked, Merrett gets 1 vote.