2026 ladder predictions

[Jeremy McLovin]

Alright chaps, let's see them. Mine below with some thoughts.

		W	L	D	%
1.	Brisbane Lions	21	2	0	141.1%
2.	Geelong	20	3	0	128.1%
3.	Sydney	20	3	0	126.0%
4.	Gold Coast	17	6	0	121.7%
5.	Adelaide	17	6	0	119.9%
6.	GWS	17	6	0	119.2%
7.	Fremantle	16	7	0	120.8%
8.	Hawthorn	15	8	0	110.3%
9.	Western Bulldogs	13	10	0	117.3%
10.	St Kilda	10	13	0	99.2%
11.	Collingwood	9	14	0	93.6%
12.	Port Adelaide	7	16	0	85.5%
13.	Essendon	7	16	0	80.7%
14.	West Coast	5	18	0	80.6%
15.	Carlton	4	19	0	80.9%
16.	North Melbourne	4	19	0	76.2%
17.	Richmond	4	19	0	74.6%
18.	Melbourne	1	22	0	68.2%

WC1: FREMANTLE v St Kilda
WC2: Hawthorn v WESTERN BULLDOGS

QF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Gold Coast
QF2: GEELONG v Sydney
EF1: ADELAIDE v Western Bulldogs
EF2: GWS v Fremantle

SF1: GOLD COAST v Adelaide
SF2: Sydney v GWS

PF1: BRISBANE LIONS v GWS
PF2: GEELONG v Gold Coast

GF: BRISBANE LIONS v Geelong


Obviously won't be very accurate on pure win numbers due to the nature of squiggle, teams are always going to drop a game or two they really should win or win one that on paper they were no chance in. Overall I feel it's generally pretty accurate, with the exception of Melbourne - I feel they're a real bottom four chance due to the players lost through trade and the number of injuries they've already had this preseason, but a one win season would shock me. I also think hawks might struggle a bit more than this shows, they have a pretty rough start to the season and while Worpel was maligned by fans he was still a first choice midfielder. Collingwood are a bit like Melbourne - while they didn't lose stars, they still lost players through trade and are already racking up the injuries in preseason.

 

[txbyhull]

I'm completely unsure if these W/L records mathematically make sense, but this is my general vibe. I hate the grand final but I think Hawks midfield will improve and they'll play Will Day during finals even if he is on death's door, I also reckon that this is finally Freo's year with a bit more aggression of half back with McVee and Simpson and a changed gamestyle / new rules that benefit them.

Like North and Sydney to improve a lot, like Melbourne and the Pies to fall off hard. Would love to see us go a bit higher but I think we are going to have to wait another year for the 6-8 wins to come.

 

[The Tip Jar]

Our model is currently picking a few surprise rises, though I'd expect some to drop back once the real season starts (Saints, North, Essendon), and Gold Coast to be much higher.

Unfortunately, it's not happy reading for us, but then again no self-respecting mathematical model could ever predict the impact of CDT and Duursma...

1. Geelong: 22-1
2. Brisbane Lions: 19-4
3. St Kilda: 18-5
4. Hawthorn: 17-6
5. Essendon: 16-7
6. Bulldogs: 15-8
   
   
7. Sydney: 14-9
8. GWS: 14-9
9. Adelaide: 12-11
10. North Melbourne: 11-12
    
    
11. Fremantle: 10-13
12. Carlton: 10-13
13. Collingwood: 10-13
14. Gold Coast: 7-16
15. Port Adelaide: 6-17
16. Melbourne: 5-18
17. Richmond: 1-22
18. West Coast: 1-22

WC: Sydney v North, GWS v Adelaide
EF: Essendon (lol surely not) v Sydney, Bulldogs v GWS
QF: Geelong v Hawthorn, St Kilda v Brisbane
SF: Brisbane v Bulldogs, Hawthorn v Essendon
PF: Geelong v Brisbane, St Kilda v Hawthorn
GF: Geelong v St Kilda

Gross. Check out footytipjar to follow thoughout the year!

 

[EdCurnowRules]

Crows 17-5-1
Hawks 17-6
Suns 17-6
Dogs 16-6-1
Lions 16-7
Giants 16-7
Cats 15-8
Dockers 14-9

Saints 12-11
Blues 12-11
Eagles 12-11
Swans 11-12
Kangaroos 8-15

Pies 7-16
Bombers 5-18
Tigers 5-18
Demons 4-19
Poort 3-20

And this is why I don’t win footy tipping comps

 

[The Tip Jar]

Crows 17-5-1
Hawks 17-6
Suns 17-6
Dogs 16-6-1
Lions 16-7
Giants 16-7
Cats 15-8
Dockers 14-9

Saints 12-11
Blues 12-11
Eagles 12-11
Swans 11-12
Kangaroos 8-15

Pies 7-16
Bombers 5-18
Tigers 5-18
Demons 4-19
Poort 3-20

And this is why I don’t win footy tipping comps

It's the Dogs/Crows draw and "Poort" that we like