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Expansion 20th AFL team location
- Thread starter Cubs2Lions
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Too little, too late. Clubs have to choose to relocate, they only will if they think they can become bigger out of Melbourne.
It’d be a shame if one of ACT or WA3 misses out so I’d say 22 should be the minimum.
If it must be capped at 20, ACT should get it instead of WA3. But most would say NT should be the final team in the league. Either way it’s short sighted and underestimates the level of interest NSW and QLD could have.
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The AFL can squeeze them financially though.
Saints and North are the two Melbourne clubs that have been propped up the most by the AFL through additional funding. Take some of that added gravy away and it makes it super challenging for them to be able to compete with the self sustaining clubs.
They may never be forced to leave, but it could be made very hard for them by the AFL if they wanted to stay put. But for now, the AFL seem very supportive of all Melbourne clubs staying where they are.
Yeah, that’s what I’d do, minimum financial assistance for the Victorian clubs.
They’re gonna watch their club play on the TV anyway which is where the big bucks are made.
The key is to preserve the tradition of the club as much as possible.
Saints could fit in quite well at Canberra as there’s an Ainslie Saints team there already. Could keep the colours the same, club song almost identical.
North could reinvent themselves nicely as North Sydney Kangaroos or North Brisbane. Could also play 7-8 games per year in Darwin while still getting 10+ Melbourne games a year if the NT cannot ever have their own club.
I don’t know if the AFL will ever apply the squeeze though but even if they do, all the Vic sides may get survive anyway.
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Maybe another in Sydney when NRL clubs move to Vegas where people care enough to attend games in numbers
IF WA3 is the 20th team, THEN...
ACT should push hard for a Vic club to relocate. You couldn't see it happening but if the AFL decided to only give North, St Kilda, and the Bulldogs the baseline amount of annual funding, one of them might buckle and cave in to a lucrative relocation offer.
IF ACT is the 20th team, THEN...
Expansion to 21 teams is more likely than less, as even back in the late 2000s/early 2010s there was speculation about a third team in WA, with Demetriou talking about it, but saying that Tasmania was on the agenda first.
They've also talked about north Queensland a lot in the past, too, more than even NT. There's only been one mention of NZ back in 2014 from Gill, but nothing from either of the former CEOs about Canberra or a 3rd SA team.
That's why I think ACT has to try and get vocal and muscle their way in.
WA3 is something the AFL may look at down the track, it'll always be there like a golden carrot dangling in front of them, but I'm not sure they see the ACT the same way, and are much more likely to ignore it.
As I've said before, if there's ever a third Queensland team, it won't be from the Sunshine Coast, it'll be based in Cairns. SC has not been on the AFL radar at all and I've seen nothing to suggest that'll change anytime soon.
If I were to guess, they probably want: 20 WA3 21 NQ 22 NT. If that's the case, ACT will need to try and lure one of the Saints, Roos or Dogs to the cap, but there's a lot to play out yet.
ACT should push hard for a Vic club to relocate. You couldn't see it happening but if the AFL decided to only give North, St Kilda, and the Bulldogs the baseline amount of annual funding, one of them might buckle and cave in to a lucrative relocation offer.
IF ACT is the 20th team, THEN...
Expansion to 21 teams is more likely than less, as even back in the late 2000s/early 2010s there was speculation about a third team in WA, with Demetriou talking about it, but saying that Tasmania was on the agenda first.
They've also talked about north Queensland a lot in the past, too, more than even NT. There's only been one mention of NZ back in 2014 from Gill, but nothing from either of the former CEOs about Canberra or a 3rd SA team.
That's why I think ACT has to try and get vocal and muscle their way in.
WA3 is something the AFL may look at down the track, it'll always be there like a golden carrot dangling in front of them, but I'm not sure they see the ACT the same way, and are much more likely to ignore it.
As I've said before, if there's ever a third Queensland team, it won't be from the Sunshine Coast, it'll be based in Cairns. SC has not been on the AFL radar at all and I've seen nothing to suggest that'll change anytime soon.
If I were to guess, they probably want: 20 WA3 21 NQ 22 NT. If that's the case, ACT will need to try and lure one of the Saints, Roos or Dogs to the cap, but there's a lot to play out yet.
Cunnington Cartel
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Our constitution now states that any future relocation/merger proposals require the support of minimum 75% of members for the proposal to pass. That simply won’t happen, so under those circumstances, there’d be far greater chance of us going back a level than relocating. The PR battle for this scenario would be a horrific one for the AFL.
Notice how quiet they’ve gone on relocations and mergers since we rejected the Gold Coast offer? That was a bloody long time ago now. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the AFL has given up on the possibility of relocations and mergers in the short-to-medium term.
I'd say you're right.
Hey Canberra Pear, probably nothing to it, just a formality, but I wrote an email to the CEO address about my thoughts on the future expansion of the game, changing the single-tier structure if necessary (without going into specifics). I mentioned in it "In the short term, say within the next 20-25 years, there's a great opportunity to add new teams to Canberra and Perth. The numbers are there for Canberra, and it would allow GWS to play full-time in Sydney, playing a few home games in Blacktown early in the season where there's strong support for the Giants!"
Anyway, I got a response, which was that, "Andrew has asked me to respond to you and thank you for your email and your thoughts. While our focus is on getting the Tasmanian team up and running at the moment, we appreciate your views.
Kind regards,
Brian"
Edit: Cunnington Cartel I also floated the idea of a 2nd Brisbane team. "That's 21 teams. As for a 22nd, I think the numbers aren't there yet for a 3rd Adelaide team; the Crows aren't an Eagles-sized club. However, by the 2050s, when I expect 21st and 22nd teams to come into the AFL, I think Brisbane is tracking nicely for a second side linked to the Sunshine Coast- the Redcliffe Dolphins of the AFL. However, that would be contingent on a new stadium in Brisbane."
Whether anyone of note reads this shit or not, I don't know, but hope someone has.
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catters05
Norm Smith Medallist
BNE population is already too big for its infrastructure, the Lions are almost already the WC of QLD due to size limitations of the Gabba. They will continue to grow, but wouldn’t want to be impacted by another BNE club.
I’d be taking advantage with the nRL not giving the Sunshine Coast an NRL team. SC population will continue to grow, businesses continue to move in and is growing closer to BNE along the highway. For me, all comes down to where you put Carrara 2.0
A new BNE team will have to contest with lions, broncos, dolphins, possible another nrl club. Sunshine Coast has nothing apart from dolphins playing one game a year.
I see SC as more of a positive for a club over cairns. Then the three QLD clubs play one game each up north to spread the message.
Cunnington Cartel
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SC will continue to grow, but it will remain dwarfed by Brisbane population-wise. These population projections show that by 2046, the medium projection for SC is 550k, Greater Brisbane is forecast to have 3.6 million by the same time. IMO, it wouldn’t make sense to have one team representing both of these regions. The SC club would be absolutely tiny and struggle even more than what the Suns have to this point.
SE Qld is quite a cohesive region. Therefore, IMO it would make more sense for a club to represent Brisbane’s Northern corridor - the Northern part of BCC, Moreton Bay, extending up towards the SC. Under these circumstances, a new club could primarily play out of a new Brisbane stadium and play a few games each season at a boutique venue on the SC (as opposed to building another major venue on the SC that would only get used for a few AFL games each year).
This is how I would approach expansion in SEQ. Especially since the Lions are now based in the SW of greater Brisbane (Ipswich), so it would be possible for a Northern corridor club to develop an identity distinct from the Lions.
Exactly, and there's a reason why the NRL don't have a team in the Sunshine Coast, that's not a coincidence. If it isn't big enough for them, it's certainly not going to be for AFL. Besides, if there's a new stadium in Brisbane, wouldn't the AFL want one game per week being played there? I'd say that will be far more tempting to them than Carrara 2.0.
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How would you split brisbane? Or make it a qld regional team with bigger games at the gabba
I wouldn't. If it were me, the 2nd Brisbane team would be playing 10 home games at the Gabba and 1 at the Sunshine Coast, with a return away game against the Lions, so they'd get 11 Gabba games per year. Though two SC games like Redcliffe get would be acceptable.
If the season got pushed out to 25 games per year, they'd play 2 home games at the Sunshine Coast, with the other 10 being at the Gabba.
Cairns would be serviced as a secondary market, most likely by Hawthorn, as that's who's looking at playing games there in the future, so as much as people talk about the Suns and how they should play there, you have to go by the reality and who actually wants to play where.
I don't see how Townsville and Mackay are going to get games as no one's willing to play there, yet, but they should be looking at them for pre-season games if they aren't already.
I'm all for expanding in the future and splitting the league up into at least two groups (not promotion and relegation) if necessary.
That said, there's a lot to play out before a 2nd Brisbane team is ever considered, namely how big the Lions can become and whether there even is a new stadium in Brisbane in the future.
No stadium, no team, no growth and demand, no team.
3207
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Sunshine Coast will have a NRL team eventually.
Maybe.
As far as I know, they're looking at maybe an Adelaide team, 3rd Brisbane, second New Zealand, return of North Sydney, PNG/Cairns, and Perth.
No mention of SC team outright and surprisingly, I haven't seen anything about a Central Coast team.
Cubs2Lions
Norm Smith Medallist
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This is why the AFL should get the clubs to play their pre season match in non-representative cities and towns around Australia instead of the majority of clubs playing them out their backyard.
As an example of this year of the clubs hosting, GWS in Canberra / Sydney in Blacktown / Hawthorn in Launceston while the rest played at their training facilities so why couldn’t those sort of matches be played in other areas such as Cairns, Townsville, Darwin, Alice Springs, Newcastle, Wollongong, Bendigo, Ballarat, Mount Gambier, Mandurah, Bunbury and etc.
That will help the AFL gauge an idea on what cities support the code more than others.
Cubs2Lions
Norm Smith Medallist
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From the rumours I have heard, the 3 immediate new clubs that will be formed in the NRL by 2037 would be PNG, NZ2 (Christchurch favourites) and Perth (joint-venture with North Sydney).
3207
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The bears should be back in, on the Cenny Coast as was their plan back in the late 90’s.
If it wasn’t for an exceptionally wet winter the stadium would’ve been finished in time for them to play out of, instead of that year of being the Travelling Wilburn’s without a home to play at, which affected their balance sheet, which put them at risk of not making the criteria to stay, which forced their merger.
Couldn’t take a trick the poor Bears.
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Yeah I saw something about Biden supporting the PNG team cause of the whole America-China cold war 2.0 going on.
Will be interesting to see how the Perth-North Sydney joint venture would work.
3207
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Sunshine Coast have definitely had bids to join before.
Seem a long way off from having a team, though.
NRL wants to go to 20 by 2037.
In the past they've wanted to cap at 20 so I don't know what happens if the SC or someone viable like the CC come knocking on the door when there's already 20 teams.
Contraction just because "we must have a max of 20" seems silly to me, just get creative and change up the structure of the comp. It depends on the health of the teams; if you have a few that are really struggling, sure, maybe push for mergers or relocations but otherwise, keep punching on I say.
If the SC can eventually get an NRL team, good for them.
3207
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Will be the Perth Bears, play 2 games at Bear Park each year.
Cubs2Lions
Norm Smith Medallist
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Pretty much, as the only things that will stay in tradition is their nickname, possible colours and 1-2 matches at NSO.
Personally sometimes check the Front Row Forums for NRL expansion news similar BigFooty here.
