20th AFL Team

[Pivot Piece]

Is the ACT government actually going to put together an actual bid? Because if they did that it might change the narrative that it’s a non-starter.
Half the reason the media thinks NT is a shoo-in is because there is a half serious bid/taskforce.

 

[Teen Wolf]

You said that Canberra wasn’t favourable as it would be getting almost $3 million a year, but the NT would be desirable because it’s needing $15m a year.

Uhhh no I didn't. Not even close.

I said the government commitment to a 20th team will need to include funding for a new stadium. Otherwise the AFL will consider there to be no viable option for a 20th team.

If it's NT that can get sufficient funding, they'll get the team. Likewise with Canberra, etc.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Uhhh no I didn't. Not even close.

I said the government commitment to a 20th team will need to include funding for a new stadium. Otherwise the AFL will consider there to be no viable option for a 20th team.

If it's NT that can get sufficient funding, they'll get the team. Likewise with Canberra, etc.

Plans to upgrade Manuka are already further progressed than any new stadium in Darwin. And that’s not contingent on an AFL team, so the onus on the AFL is far less.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Plans to upgrade Manuka are already further progressed than any new stadium in Darwin. And that’s not contingent on an AFL team, so the onus on the AFL is far less.

GWS will enjoy it as a 2nd home. But a half-arsed upgrade of shitty Manuka will never be the main home to an AFL team, sorry.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Is the ACT government actually going to put together an actual bid? Because if they did that it might change the narrative that it’s a non-starter.
Half the reason the media thinks NT is a shoo-in is because there is a half serious bid/taskforce.

It’s funny that I haven’t seen anything serious from Joondalup, but everybody has them as a serious contender.

I think the two most viable options are Joondalup and Canberra, and they’ve been the two quietest. I guess the others are loud because they have to be. Every place with a somewhat vocal bid has a population of under 180k.

I would love for the ACT Government to be more vocal. I would love an official bid. But just because they aren’t vocal doesn’t mean things aren’t happening more quietly. The Chief Minister has said on multiple occasions that Canberra would be a logical spot for the 20th team. And they’ve been pushing for a Manuka upgrade – via cricket. Things are lining up for Canberra, but in a more reserved manner.

 

[Canberra Pear]

GWS will enjoy it as a 2nd home. But a half-arsed upgrade of shitty Manuka will never be the main home to an AFL team, sorry.

You seem to have a weird vendetta against Canberra.

 

[Teen Wolf]

I that do bring the news made not the match.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I that do bring the news made not the match.

You seem fixed to the idea that any 20th team will need a shiny new stadium. But it’s very market dependent.

Even in its current state, a Canberra team at Manuka is still more viable than an NT team in a shiny new stadium.

20k is smaller than I would like, but it’s more than sufficient for the early days of an AFL team.

Darwin would need a new stadium because it plays in the tropics, in a tiny remote city, and would rely heavily on enticing interstate travellers to fly four hours.

Canberra will be largely self-sufficient in a much bigger market, and also much easier to get to for travelling teams. Manuka is already central, surrounded by pubs and restaurants.

A Canberra team in an upgraded Manuka is a better prospect than an NT team in a new stadium.

 

[Rob]

It’s funny that I haven’t seen anything serious from Joondalup, but everybody has them as a serious contender.

Im not even sure how "Joondalup" would even get off the ground. It's such a nothing place that the WAFL club based in Joondalup doesn't even want to be called Joondalup.

 

[GC2015]

Although I can't see it happening, a 20th team in the Top End would be so interesting to watch from multiple angles and a lot of people out there think it would 'complete' the dream of a true national league. You'd think an 'Territory Lightning' team would be granted a northern academy (ala QLD & NSW) and that would likely result in a large amount of indigenous players getting drafted into the league. So immediately you probably address the lack of indigenous players in the AFL issue because you probably get another 10-20 in the league straight away and that will grow over time as indigenous players from the Lightning program inevitably spill into other clubs. If you started the team right now, you can just about guarantee players like Daniel Rioli

17

Daniel Rioli

Age

28

Ht

179cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.7

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

179.2

3star

D

8.1

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

3.3

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

144.9

3star

D

9.0

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

0.8

1star

T

3.8

5star

MG

160.2

3star

, Willie Rioli

15

Willie Rioli

Age

30

Ht

175cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

, Ben Long

22

Ben Long

Age

28

Ht

186cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.9

3star

K

6.2

2star

HB

4.7

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

0.7

4star

D

12.8

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

0.0

1star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

3.2

5star

G

0.6

3star

, Alwyn Davey Jr, Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

, Joel Jeffrey etc would head home to play for the NT Lightning so that's obviously a lot of talent from the get go and should make them highly competitive.

I know there are so many logistical issues that come with a hypothetical NT AFL team, but it's interesting to entertain what it would look like and how exciting it would be to watch them play. Huge home advantage for them as well considering the heat/humidity all year round in Darwin while the southern states freeze for most of the home and away season. It's probably fair to say the NT team would be competitive most years purely because of their home ground advantage which should net a lot of home wins for them. Nathan Buckley was keen to get involved in the past so he could be the inaugural coach of the Lightning. I'm seeing lots of positives from an on field perspective.

AFL expansion twist: ‘Territory Lightning’ target 20th license as WA opens door for third club

AFL expansion twist: New destination emerges for 20th team as state opens door to third club

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Purple Suit]

That is the only way NT gets a team from mine, after Canberra. Darwin climate totally unsuitable for footy, tiny population, and what we southerners forget is that if you combine Rugby League and Union, it is almost as popular up there as Aussie Rules. Perhaps 60/40 but it is not quite the AFL mad town we all think it is.

Still the AFL media love the NT for team 20 - they spoke about how good it would be tonight on Midweek Tackle tonight. They are proposing the team be called NT Lightning annd would play the first 2 - 4 games in Alice Springs (population 34K) due to Darwin’s unsuitable weather until late May.

They also mentioned that WA/WAFL are now keen on a 3rd club.

There it is, WAFL want a 3rd WA club, surprised it took this long considering the money it will bring into WA footy. Sorry Canberra, most of the demographic reason why they are a much better candidate than NT are true why WA3 is an easier option than Canberra. Both are in markets with existing sporting teams but WA is significantly under catered for the population and the AFL love trying to fight the NRL as direct as possible.

Freo v Hawks game was a sell-out and we're only just on the up, in 2-3 years there will be no spare seats for any WA games. They also played multiple games at Optus in the same weekend with North coming over with zero issues so I can see it as a trial run into the future.

You never know, if Tassie doesn't happen then maybe Canberra is back on the cards too.

 

[Cmarsh]

Although I can't see it happening, a 20th team in the Top End would be so interesting to watch from multiple angles and a lot of people out there think it would 'complete' the dream of a true national league. You'd think an 'Territory Lightning' team would be granted a northern academy (ala QLD & NSW) and that would likely result in a large amount of indigenous players getting drafted into the league. So immediately you probably address the lack of indigenous players in the AFL issue because you probably get another 10-20 in the league straight away and that will grow over time as indigenous players from the Lightning program inevitably spill into other clubs. If you started the team right now, you can just about guarantee players like Daniel Rioli, Willie Rioli, Ben Long, Alwyn Davey Jr, Zac Bailey, Joel Jeffrey etc would head home to play for the NT Lightning so that's obviously a lot of talent from the get go and should make them highly competitive.

I know there are so many logistical issues that come with a hypothetical NT AFL team, but it's interesting to entertain what it would look like and how exciting it would be to watch them play. Huge home advantage for them as well considering the heat/humidity all year round in Darwin while the southern states freeze for most of the home and away season. It's probably fair to say the NT team would be competitive most years purely because of their home ground advantage which should net a lot of home wins for them. Nathan Buckley was keen to get involved in the past so he could be the inaugural coach of the Lightning. I'm seeing lots of positives from an on field perspective.

AFL expansion twist: ‘Territory Lightning’ target 20th license as WA opens door for third club

AFL expansion twist: New destination emerges for 20th team as state opens door to third club

www.foxsports.com.au

Well they will need to rely heavily on local talent because I imagine there would be a minimal amount of interstate players would want to move there. Although I'm not sure if relying on local talent to provide a majority of players to an AFL list is a sustainable model given the smallness of the population base.

That's before you realise funding a rebulit stadium to AFL standard will be another political nightmare.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Sorry Canberra, most of the demographic reason why they are a much better candidate than NT are true why WA3 is an easier option than Canberra.

That would be true in Canberra already had two AFL teams.

No doubt that Perth has a huge demographic advantage over Canberra, and if you were starting from scratch you could feasibly have three Perth teams before a Canberra team.

But you're not going to just slice a third of Perth off and give it to the new team. After what's left of Perth after West Coast and Freo, Canberra and WA3 will have pretty similar-sized bases to work from.

Freo v Hawks game was a sell-out and we're only just on the up, in 2-3 years there will be no spare seats for any WA games. They also played multiple games at Optus in the same weekend with North coming over with zero issues so I can see it as a trial run into the future.

Is a single sell-out that impressive? Port have sold out games at Adelaide Oval, does that justify a third Adelaide team?

The North game got 31k. Against a team from that city. I'd like to see North play a third WA match against a smaller team. That'd be the real test.

You never know, if Tassie doesn't happen then maybe Canberra is back on the cards too.

As long as Canberra is in the 20-team competition!

 

[Purple Suit]

That would be true in Canberra already had two AFL teams.

No doubt that Perth has a huge demographic advantage over Canberra, and if you were starting from scratch you could feasibly have three Perth teams before a Canberra team.

But you're not going to just slice a third of Perth off and give it to the new team. After what's left of Perth after West Coast and Freo, Canberra and WA3 will have pretty similar-sized bases to work from.

Canberra has two rugby teams so equally you can't just count the whole of Canberra in your figures but a slice. Look at GWS / GC, population doesn't mean interest and with the amount of free and discounted tickets they often offer, I don't think price is the determining factor.

Is a single sell-out that impressive? Port have sold out games at Adelaide Oval, does that justify a third Adelaide team?

The North game got 31k. Against a team from that city. I'd like to see North play a third WA match against a smaller team. That'd be the real test.

Freo & WC are 4th and 5th on the home attendance averages with 44K each. Canberra is averaging 10K, a new team will get significantly more attendance in WA3 over Canberra. I think 30K year 1 would be conservative. The North game was wet and Freo didn't have time to offer it in with the memberships. Prices were also high with only the top tier of the stadium being $35 a ticket, it was a calculated gamble to generate more revenue over attendance. GA in Melbourne isn't that high.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Canberra has two rugby teams so equally you can't just count the whole of Canberra in your figures but a slice. Look at GWS / GC, population doesn't mean interest and with the amount of free and discounted tickets they often offer, I don't think price is the determining factor.

Agreed that we have to compete with two rugby teams, but people are much more likely to have a team in multiple leagues than they are two teams from the same league in the same city. That's why I didn't include the Force and Bears; plenty will simultaneously follow the Eagles or Dockers while following the Force or Bears.

And Canberrans in particular seem to care even less about code wars. The majority of folks I know here who prefer NRL also follow AFL.

Freo & WC are 4th and 5th on the home attendance averages with 44K each. Canberra is averaging 10K, a new team will get significantly more attendance in WA3 over Canberra.

The main difference is that they're home teams. Have an interstate team come and bring their scraps and see how much they average.

I do think WA3 will probably average higher than Canberra. But I don't think significantly higher without the derby boost. And a 90% full Manuka will be earning more than a 40% full Optus. And look a lot better, too.

I think 30K year 1 would be conservative. The North game was wet and Freo didn't have time to offer it in with the memberships. Prices were also high with only the top tier of the stadium being $35 a ticket, it was a calculated gamble to generate more revenue over attendance. GA in Melbourne isn't that high.

It was still against Freo. And we've been told how the derbies will all bring in 55-60k crowds. How much would that game have drawn against the Suns, Giants, Port etc?

I still think we need a North v neutral game at Optus to truly determine how much demand there is.

 

[Coolangatta]

Although I can't see it happening, a 20th team in the Top End would be so interesting to watch from multiple angles and a lot of people out there think it would 'complete' the dream of a true national league. You'd think an 'Territory Lightning' team would be granted a northern academy (ala QLD & NSW) and that would likely result in a large amount of indigenous players getting drafted into the league. So immediately you probably address the lack of indigenous players in the AFL issue because you probably get another 10-20 in the league straight away and that will grow over time as indigenous players from the Lightning program inevitably spill into other clubs. If you started the team right now, you can just about guarantee players like Daniel Rioli, Willie Rioli, Ben Long, Alwyn Davey Jr, Zac Bailey, Joel Jeffrey etc would head home to play for the NT Lightning so that's obviously a lot of talent from the get go and should make them highly competitive.

I know there are so many logistical issues that come with a hypothetical NT AFL team, but it's interesting to entertain what it would look like and how exciting it would be to watch them play. Huge home advantage for them as well considering the heat/humidity all year round in Darwin while the southern states freeze for most of the home and away season. It's probably fair to say the NT team would be competitive most years purely because of their home ground advantage which should net a lot of home wins for them. Nathan Buckley was keen to get involved in the past so he could be the inaugural coach of the Lightning. I'm seeing lots of positives from an on field perspective.

AFL expansion twist: ‘Territory Lightning’ target 20th license as WA opens door for third club

AFL expansion twist: New destination emerges for 20th team as state opens door to third club

www.foxsports.com.au

That article is so frustrating. I’m referring to the section that says Canberra is effectively ruled out as it’s considered GWS territory. This is such bullshit! I do wonder if the AFL actually sees it that way, too. It’s going to be ****ed if they do.

 

[GC2015]

That article is so frustrating. I’m referring to the section that says Canberra is effectively ruled out as it’s considered GWS territory. This is such bullshit! I do wonder if the AFL actually sees it that way, too. It’s going to be ****ed if they do.

Bit of a shame if it's true. Perhaps Canberra would be better served by trying to convince a Victorian team to relocate to the ACT?

Sounds like WA3 is in the box seat with the NT still trying their luck. The only other legit contender for 2032 would probably be QLD3, but you'd think WA3 are ahead of them at this stage. WA3 would probably be the biggest help for West Coast and Freo in terms of reducing travel and making the league more fair in that regard e.g. with North agreeing to play home games in WA this year, Fremantle went from 96 hours in the air last year to 80 hours this year. Add in a third WA team and retain North playing home games over there and you're probably looking at a similar amount of time in the air between WA & QLD teams (60-70 hours). It's nowhere near the travel time of the Victoria clubs (20-30 hours) but it would be better than the current situation.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Bit of a shame if it's true. Perhaps Canberra would be better served by trying to convince a Victorian team to relocate to the ACT?

I wouldn't read too much into it.

The author has actually been one of the best journos in regards to recognising Canberra.

So I emailed him for more clarification about that line, asking if it was based on anything recent, or more the lingering vibe based on McLachlan's old comments.

He said: It's primarily the vibe but you're right, I should take a deeper look at the current admin's view.

So it doesn't look like there's anything overly deep in that line.

 

[Teen Wolf]

You seem fixed to the idea that any 20th team will need a shiny new stadium.

Not me. The AFL.

Make all the speeches you want. That's how it is.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Not me. The AFL.

Make all the speeches you want. That's how it is.

Where has the AFL ever said "every new team must have a shiny new stadium"?

Not saying it's fair, but the AFL won't approach it with a one-size-fits-all approach.

The NT would probably need a new stadium because it's a tiny market with no growth potential. The AFL wouldn't be as strict if the team had more return potential.

 

[GC2015]

I wouldn't read too much into it.

The author has actually been one of the best journos in regards to recognising Canberra.

So I emailed him for more clarification about that line, asking if it was based on anything recent, or more the lingering vibe based on McLachlan's old comments.

He said: It's primarily the vibe but you're right, I should take a deeper look at the current admin's view.

So it doesn't look like there's anything overly deep in that line.

Fair enough. Thanks for sharing that insight.

 

[Coolangatta]

Nice work Canberra Pear. It’s unbelievable no one’s been able to state the obvious yet in the media: rip the bandaid off, take the training wheels off, and the Giants might just actually gain more supporters in Sydney as a full time Sydney team.

If they don’t, we can always relocate them to Canberra in 30 years, and Canberra can have two teams.

Or merge them with Geelong West Giants. We might need to if Geelong win 10 of the next 30 flags. They already have an impeccable record there.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Where has the AFL ever said "every new team must have a shiny new stadium"?

Well, put it this way: Forget about the NT. Do you believe the ACT is a more viable option for an AFL team than Tasmania?

 

[Badger17]

Where has the AFL ever said "every new team must have a shiny new stadium"?

Not saying it's fair, but the AFL won't approach it with a one-size-fits-all approach.

The NT would probably need a new stadium because it's a tiny market with no growth potential. The AFL wouldn't be as strict if the team had more return potential.

I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of a new stadium in Canberra anyway.

There's no chance of a $1bil monstrosity like Mac Point, but I can see the government supporting a reasonable new build in a different location if AFL and BBL licenses were guaranteed as part of the deal. The Raiders, Brumbies, and their supporters would be furious, and fair enough frankly, but Labour hasn't cared about leading them on for the last 20 years, so why start caring now?

The Greens would need some convincing to be fair, but whatever, it's doable.

A new stadium is by no means a necessity in Canberra though. An upgraded Manuka would be more than capable of hosting an AFL side fulltime.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Well, put it this way: Forget about the NT. Do you believe the ACT is a more viable option for an AFL team than Tasmania?

As a standalone (minus government funding), currently, I believe Canberra is slightly more viable than Tasmania.

Tasmania and Canberra have similar populations, but all of Canberra's is in the one centralised market. Tasmania has more AFL fans, but Canberra likely has slightly more than Hobart. More people can go to every single game and they're not having to split costs and memberships.

Economically, Canberrans have a median income 70% higher than Tasmanians. So while we may have fewer AFL fans, a higher percentage of them can afford to financially support their team.

So, I would put Canberra slightly ahead of Tasmania now, for viability.

But that grows as Canberra's population continues to grow more quickly than Tasmania. Fast forward to 2050 and I don't think it'd even be a question of which is more viable then.