Traded #22: Jake Carlisle - Pt.1 - Traded with some other stuff for pick 5, 24 and a Bird (cont in Part 2)

[daffo]

I don't think that the Saints will backflip on pick 5. Carlisle will end up a Hawk.

 

[fishardansin]

Picks 4, 8, 15, 18 and 44 sounds awesome. It may be a shallow draft, but the top 20 or so are still quality prospects. Smartest thing to do in a shallow draft is load up on first rounders.


Yes of course. I'm slightly leaning towards the Hawthorn deal being more favourable for us if GWS agree. We may even give them the assurance that we won't bid for their academy players, leaving them needing less points.

Picks 4, 8, 14, 18 plus Luenberger, Couglan and Brown.

BOOM! ....

Fit Watson, Colyer, Myers and ZERRETT ... plus Laverde about to become the greatest 2nd year player of all time.

Go Dons.

 

[eth-dog]

Picks 4, 8, 14, 18 plus Luenberger, Couglan and Brown.

BOOM! ....

Fit Watson, Colyer, Myers and ZERRETT ... plus Laverde about to become the greatest 2nd year player of all time.

Go Dons.

15. Not sure where this 14 stuff is coming from, that's Sydney's pick.

 

[TazHawk15]

I'd think it's more likely if anything as there are less parties to agree now. Hawthorn will give up 15 and 18 for Jake, but to their credit, haven't left Jed hanging due to St Kilda's bumbling about.

Spot on.

 

[hurlygurdy]

Yep, you're spot on. As soon as Carlisle says he is committed to the Hawks as well as St Kilda, then the clock is on the Saints. Dodoro would likely turn to St Kilda and say "you have a day to offer us pick 5 (plus potentially more) or he's gone to Hawthorn". Either that, or the trade to the Hawks would be done on the spot, but I imagine Dodoro would at least pitch that scenario to attempt to get the best possible trade.

So, you're essentially repeating what I said. The Saints can secure Carlisle with pick 5, but don't want to, hence they will be trying their hardest to prevent Carlisle to commit to Hawthorn. Otherwise, game over to the trade, or retaining pick 5.

Not sure what you mean by "trying their hardest to prevent Carlisle committing to the Hawks"? Surely there is only one way to do that, which is to put forward a "going" price. You can dress it up in different ways, but it's looking more and more like the Saints were only in it for a bargain. I like bargains personally, but around here they seem to call that "trading in bad faith". And i thought we were the ones who were hard to deal with?!

 

[Conor Mckenna]

there is one glaring fallacy in your post.

You can't "ensure" the PSD is a safe option because you do not know for certain what the financial situation of the other clubs is.

You also have a hidden assumption that because Carlisle's preference is the Saints that it's the only club he'll consider, and that further he prefers a good financial deal to a much higher chance of playing in a premiership.

They are all assumptions not certainties.

Based on that I think your conclusions are wrong. The power is with St Kilda in that they have a means of achieving their goal. This isn't like a situation like last year where Port wanted Ryder, but didn't actually possess what we wanted for him, meaning we had to settle. No. You have the means, you just don't want to spend it. Which is fine, but then don't go thinking it's up to Carlisle to do your deal for you. That is actually the biggest fallacy in your post. It is NOT up to Carlisle to get your deal done, it is up to YOU.

Saints have stuffed this big time. They thought they could screw EFC by waiting and extorting. When in fact when YOU commit to a player, it is YOUR responsibility to do what you have to to get him. Sure it may not be ideal, but that's tough tittie.

It blows my mind that St Kilda and Carlisle had all these meetings, and St Kilda CLEARLY convinced Jake they would do whatever it took to get him, but then in fact had no intention of doing that, and instead preferred to leave it in the fates of the negotiation gods and just assumed that they had some rubbish power, when is it now proven what a big lie that was. Carlisle would and should be furious it has come to this.

St Kilda have the means to get him! They obviously conveyed to Jake they'd do what was necessary to get him. Then they played games with that trust. Utterly disgusting.

It's not often I would ever say this, but... take a leaf out of Melbourne's book. They committed to Melksham, and because of that commitment the did what they had to to honour that commitment, even if it did mean they paid marginally overs - which your club refuses to do.

I was going to say that..Stop copying me!!

 

[Conor Mckenna]

Of course, the Saints cannot definitely guarantee safe passage via the PSD, but given their available cap space, front-loading, and Carlisle's right to refuse medicals with the only 3 preceding clubs (4, if including Essendon) then it would be considerably likely.

Nowhere in my post did i state why Carlisle would like to come to St Kilda. The only thing I asserted was that they are the only club he has publicly confirmed interest in, and further confirmed it through his manager and by contacting St Kilda (see St Kilda's media release yesterday for that).

I agree that the Saints have somewhat slipped up here, in that they clearly sold the club to Carlisle on, what one can assume, the proviso that they guaranteed he would reach there in one way or another. But, ultimately, you have to sell the club to the player first, before any trade negotiations can truly take place, so St Kilda did what they had to, and what any club would. The problem arose when there was an impasse between the evaluation of Carlisle made by each party in the trade, and that St Kilda have a clearly structured plan which cannot be wavered from (whereas the pick 5 swap may have already occurred under previous St Kilda admins).

I suppose you could draw comparisons with promising your child a present on Christmas day. This particular present has sold out, and you are forced to pay several times more than you had expected. Sure, you technically can afford it, but you would have to sacrifice other necessities to get it done. In such a scenario, you made that promise based on an understanding of the price, which, due to extending circumstances, turned out to be an undervaluing expectation. Whether you go ahead and buy that present is up to you, and matter of comparing how you value "holding your promise" to the true cost of the present.
Sure, the Saints *can* afford Carlisle, but just because one can afford something doesn't mean they should pay it.

Is your name scrooge or Ameet? Or both?

 

[fishardansin]

15. Not sure where this 14 stuff is coming from, that's Sydney's pick.

15?

Ok eth would you prefer:

4, 5, 23, 25 or 4, 8, 15, 18?

 

[MarkG]

How big a factor would McConville's commission be in driving Jake to keep Saints as his preferred club?

 

[eth-dog]

15?

Ok eth would you prefer:

4, 5, 23, 25 or 4, 8, 15, 18?

The latter every time.

 

[fishardansin]

I'd think it's more likely if anything as there are less parties to agree now. Hawthorn will give up 15 and 18 for Jake, but to their credit, haven't left Jed hanging due to St Kilda's bumbling about.

They gave 40 to North, so it'll be:

Carlisle and 41 for 15 and 18

 

[Beerfish]

How big a factor would McConville's commission be in driving Jake to keep Saints as his preferred club?

He's not a real estate agent. I doubt it comes into it at all.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

How big a factor would McConville's commission be in driving Jake to keep Saints as his preferred club?

He still wants to go to St Kilda and it still can happen.

But it needs to happen via trade. If nothing else it’s at least shut up another bunch of dickheads and their bullshit about the PSD, which we hear every year.

He was never going to the PSD and he’s not now.

We are exactly where we were a week ago: St ****in Kilda need to come up with a trade. Only difference now is we all know what happens if they don’t.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Why are Saints so hell bent on not letting go 5?

edit - What ever deal we get I hope we don't deal with St.Kilda ever again.

 

[fishardansin]

Of course, the Saints cannot definitely guarantee safe passage via the PSD, but given their available cap space, front-loading, and Carlisle's right to refuse medicals with the only 3 preceding clubs (4, if including Essendon) then it would be considerably likely.

Nowhere in my post did i state why Carlisle would like to come to St Kilda. The only thing I asserted was that they are the only club he has publicly confirmed interest in, and further confirmed it through his manager and by contacting St Kilda (see St Kilda's media release yesterday for that).

I agree that the Saints have somewhat slipped up here, in that they clearly sold the club to Carlisle on, what one can assume, the proviso that they guaranteed he would reach there in one way or another. But, ultimately, you have to sell the club to the player first, before any trade negotiations can truly take place, so St Kilda did what they had to, and what any club would. The problem arose when there was an impasse between the evaluation of Carlisle made by each party in the trade, and that St Kilda have a clearly structured plan which cannot be wavered from (whereas the pick 5 swap may have already occurred under previous St Kilda admins).

I suppose you could draw comparisons with promising your child a present on Christmas day. This particular present has sold out, and you are forced to pay several times more than you had expected. Sure, you technically can afford it, but you would have to sacrifice other necessities to get it done. In such a scenario, you made that promise based on an understanding of the price, which, due to extending circumstances, turned out to be an undervaluing expectation. Whether you go ahead and buy that present is up to you, and matter of comparing how you value "holding your promise" to the true cost of the present.
Sure, the Saints *can* afford Carlisle, but just because one can afford something doesn't mean they should pay it.

Front loading is bullshit. Pretty sure its about the whole contract now.

 

[Beerfish]

Why are Saints so hell bent on not letting go 5?

Because they're hard to deal with.

 

[Foxx]

But he hasn't said that..He's happy to go to hawks if a deal can't be made with the saints....Pick 5 or 2 late first rounders or he's of to the Hawks...Would hate to see him there but we've gotta do what's best for us..

His first priority is to go to St Kilda, that much is clear. And because of that Dedoro will take the best deal he can get from St Kilda.

 

[MarkG]

He's not a real estate agent. I doubt it comes into it at all.

Connor spoke on SEN last night. There is definitely a sizeable commission difference between a $500k pa deal and a $700k pa deal.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Why are Saints so hell bent on not letting go 5?

Why are we so intent on getting it? Because both teams want to get the most value from their resources.

 

[Beerfish]

Connor spoke on SEN last night. There is definitely a sizeable commission difference between a $500k pa deal and a $700k pa deal.

Did I say there wasn't?

 

[MarkG]

His first priority is to go to St Kilda, that much is clear. And because of that Dedoro will take the best deal he can get from St Kilda.

His first priority is StKilda because they are the only ones that he has sat down and discussed things in person with and they offered top $.

Hawks have only spoken over the phone.

 

[MarkG]

Did I say there wasn't?

No. But you said that they are not real estate salesmen. Both get paid commission that is based on sales price.

 

[Foxx]

His first priority is StKilda because they are the only ones that he has sat down and discussed things in person with and they offered top $.

Hawks have only spoken over the phone.

Your relevant point? As it stands St Kilda is his preferred choice.

 

[Jesse Custer]

Any chance the Hawks are trolling?

 

[Strahany]

You can front load all you like, any other club can match the offer at the average value of the contract.

He would name a one year contract which gets re-negoatiated post-signing. The average of one year at 1.5m is 1.5m.
That's how the PSD threat is founded.