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Retired #23: David Myers - Retiring at the end of the season - 20/8

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There is also strong rumours that Pears has been offered an EFC contract and it is all done bar the shouting..

So not sure.. realistically I don't see any situation where any club ever gives up picks 1-5 for anything other than a 'Judd' or 'Ablett' like player..

Myers is nowhere near that stage..

Goes back to the deal floating on Monday...

Crameri to dogs for pick 22
pick 22 to Adelaide for Vince
Myers + Vince to Melbourne
Pick 2 to EFC

I actually think it could be seen as a 'fair' deal by all four teams.. Adelaide get 22 for Vince which is about right.. Dogs get Crameri for pick 22 is which slightly under but what they want, We give up Myers and and Crameri for Pick 2 which is probably about right.. Melbourne gets Myers (pick 6 with 6 years development) + Vince (2nd round pick who has won BF with 7 years experience) in exchange for Pick 2..

The more I look at it.. the more it makes sense.

I don't think they will.. but Melbourne really has no need for yet another young 18 year old.. they need harder, experienced blokes to give some leadership and direction. In reality, Myers could almost step straight into the captaincy over there.. Judd style.. such is the lack of leadership Melbourne has..
 
dragit said:
No worries, his numbers are pretty ordinary if that's the case, still plenty of potential though I guess.
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The sub role can make those numbers a bit deceiving, if they had per minutes stats he would be shown in a better light. His ability to accumulate possession is one of his strengths, it just gets offset a bit by his running ability, so when you combine these together he is very well suited to the sub position in a good team, at this point in his career.
 

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rines said:
There is also strong rumours that Pears has been offered an EFC contract and it is all done bar the shouting..

So not sure.. realistically I don't see any situation where any club ever gives up picks 1-5 for anything other than a 'Judd' or 'Ablett' like player..

Myers is nowhere near that stage..

Goes back to the deal floating on Monday...

Crameri to dogs for pick 22
pick 22 to Adelaide for Vince
Myers + Vince to Melbourne
Pick 2 to EFC

I actually think it could be seen as a 'fair' deal by all four teams.. Adelaide get 22 for Vince which is about right.. Dogs get Crameri for pick 22 is which slightly under but what they want, We give up Myers and and Crameri for Pick 2 which is probably about right.. Melbourne gets Myers (pick 6 with 6 years development) + Vince (2nd round pick who has won BF with 7 years experience) in exchange for Pick 2..

The more I look at it.. the more it makes sense.

I don't think they will.. but Melbourne really has no need for yet another young 18 year old.. they need harder, experienced blokes to give some leadership and direction. In reality, Myers could almost step straight into the captaincy over there.. Judd style.. such is the lack of leadership Melbourne has..
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I like it, big myers fan but we could lose him to FA and get much less as compo. I'd take this provided we can get NDS as a FA, he takes myers spot in the best 22 and the pick 2 which will be the best mid in the draft can develop in his own time
 
bomberman500 said:
I like it, big myers fan but we could lose him to FA and get much less as compo. I'd take this provided we can get NDS as a FA, he takes myers spot in the best 22 and the pick 2 which will be the best mid in the draft can develop in his own time
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Myers isn't a free agent until 2015. I'll take that chance.
 
FlyingV said:
Myers and Vince does not equal pick two.
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So you would say that Myers + Vince does not equal, say, Gumbleton??

Because that is what Pick 2 could get you... A gumbleton type scenario.. or another Trengrove situation (good player but hardly elite) or Maybe another Jack Watts or....

And please.. don't tell me all the great players taken at 2.. I'm not a dope.. YES the % suggests that Pick 2 'should' be a star.. but Melbourne desperately needs some experienced bodies, good leaders on and off the field.

I don't think that something like Myers + Vince for Pick 2 is that drastically under tbh.. considering the situation.. Maybe we would need to throw something else in..

Not saying it is likely.. but Melbourne currently 'prepared' based on reports to throw big money at both Vince and Myers.. so they clearly think they need both of them.. realistically Roo's has never been a big fan of the draft.. his style has always been to value exposed form and 'men' who can play tough footy.. not a skinny 18 year old that might take 3-4 years to make an impact..
 
rines said:
So you would say that Myers + Vince does not equal, say, Gumbleton??

Because that is what Pick 2 could get you... A gumbleton type scenario.. or another Trengrove situation (good player but hardly elite) or Maybe another Jack Watts or....

And please.. don't tell me all the great players taken at 2.. I'm not a dope.. YES the % suggests that Pick 2 'should' be a star.. but Melbourne desperately needs some experienced bodies, good leaders on and off the field.

I don't think that something like Myers + Vince for Pick 2 is that drastically under tbh.. considering the situation.. Maybe we would need to throw something else in..

Not saying it is likely.. but Melbourne currently 'prepared' based on reports to throw big money at both Vince and Myers.. so they clearly think they need both of them.. realistically Roo's has never been a big fan of the draft.. his style has always been to value exposed form and 'men' who can play tough footy.. not a skinny 18 year old that might take 3-4 years to make an impact..
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Take your red and black glasses off.
Melbourne need alot of things, talent is one of them, and talent is what they get with pick 2.
I'm not going to go through the last 10 years of gun players that have been picked early in drafts... Because there are too many, but I can promise you, Melbourne will not be trading pick two for two okay, middle/late age midfielders.
They just wont.
 
FlyingV said:
Take your red and black glasses off.
Melbourne need alot of things, talent is one of them, and talent is what they get with pick 2.
I'm not going to go through the last 10 years of gun players that have been picked early in drafts... Because there are too many, but I can promise you, Melbourne will not be trading pick two for two okay, middle/late age midfielders.
They just wont.
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You'll get no argument from me that they are 'unlikely' to trade pick 2 HOWEVER.. let us take a roll call of all MELBOURNE's early draft picks in the last 13 years (since playing off in the 2000 GF against us)... and then lets compare whether Melbourne would prefer that player or Myers + Vince at their club, hypothetically speak, right now:
2001 - #9 - Luke Molan (never played a game) - Myers/Vince Wins
2002 - #14 - Daniel Bell - Myers/Vince Wins
#15 - Nick Smith - Myers/Vince Wins
2003 - #3 - Colin Sylvia - Myers/Vince Wins
- #5 - Brock McLean - Myers/Vince Wins
2004 - #13 - Matthew Bate - Myers/Vince Wins
2005 - #12 - Nathan Jones - Myers/Vince Win (but close)
2006 - #12 - James Frawley - Myers/Vince Win
2007 - #4 - Cale Morton - Myers/Vince Wins
- #14 - Jack Grimes - Myers/Vince Win (but close)
2008 - #1 - Jack Watts - Myers/Vince Win
2009 - #1 - Tom Scully - Scully Wins
#2 - Jack Trengrove - Myers/Vince Win (But Close)
#11 - Jordan Gysberts - Myers/Vince Win
2010 - #12 - Lucas Cook - Myers/Vince Win
2011 - No picks in top 15
2012 - #4 - Jimmy Toumpass - Too early to call

So based on their prior recruiting record Melbourne have a 1/6 chance that their top 5 pick will be better than Myers/Vince. They have a 1/15 chance that Myers/Vince will be better than any player they select with a top 15 pick.

That should just explain how much of a lottery drafting is ffs. Also how very difficult it is to have an ALL youth team.. so Aish gets drafted.. who leads him? who blocks for him? who shows him the running patterns required? who mentors him? THAT is why basically no young players have kicked on at melbourne.. they are isolated in a crap team.

If I was Melbourne.. I would take Myers and Vince for Pick 2 and know that I actually have a chance that guys like Trengrove, Grimes, Jones, Toumpas, Viney etc etc might actually have some help to reach their potential.

Let us not forget that David Myers was a pick 6.. so a top 10 draft pick that you KNOW can play to X level.. that is surely more valuable that a pick that is '4 higher' BUT could turn out to be a flop...

It is not Red and Black glasses.. just statistic and common sense.. we over value drafting far too much.. especially as we are talking about 17/18 year old kids.. not like they are 24 and been through the VFL or (US College) system etc.. and you know what they are capable of.. there is still a lot of unknowns about these young guys.
 
rines said:
You'll get no argument from me that they are 'unlikely' to trade pick 2 HOWEVER.. let us take a roll call of all MELBOURNE's early draft picks in the last 13 years (since playing off in the 2000 GF against us)... and then lets compare whether Melbourne would prefer that player or Myers + Vince at their club, hypothetically speak, right now:
2001 - #9 - Luke Molan (never played a game) - Myers/Vince Wins
2002 - #14 - Daniel Bell - Myers/Vince Wins
#15 - Nick Smith - Myers/Vince Wins
2003 - #3 - Colin Sylvia - Myers/Vince Wins
- #5 - Brock McLean - Myers/Vince Wins
2004 - #13 - Matthew Bate - Myers/Vince Wins
2005 - #12 - Nathan Jones - Myers/Vince Win (but close)
2006 - #12 - James Frawley - Myers/Vince Win
2007 - #4 - Cale Morton - Myers/Vince Wins
- #14 - Jack Grimes - Myers/Vince Win (but close)
2008 - #1 - Jack Watts - Myers/Vince Win
2009 - #1 - Tom Scully - Scully Wins
#2 - Jack Trengrove - Myers/Vince Win (But Close)
#11 - Jordan Gysberts - Myers/Vince Win
2010 - #12 - Lucas Cook - Myers/Vince Win
2011 - No picks in top 15
2012 - #4 - Jimmy Toumpass - Too early to call

So based on their prior recruiting record Melbourne have a 1/6 chance that their top 5 pick will be better than Myers/Vince. They have a 1/15 chance that Myers/Vince will be better than any player they select with a top 15 pick.

That should just explain how much of a lottery drafting is ffs. Also how very difficult it is to have an ALL youth team.. so Aish gets drafted.. who leads him? who blocks for him? who shows him the running patterns required? who mentors him? THAT is why basically no young players have kicked on at melbourne.. they are isolated in a crap team.

If I was Melbourne.. I would take Myers and Vince for Pick 2 and know that I actually have a chance that guys like Trengrove, Grimes, Jones, Toumpas, Viney etc etc might actually have some help to reach their potential.

Let us not forget that David Myers was a pick 6.. so a top 10 draft pick that you KNOW can play to X level.. that is surely more valuable that a pick that is '4 higher' BUT could turn out to be a flop...

It is not Red and Black glasses.. just statistic and common sense.. we over value drafting far too much.. especially as we are talking about 17/18 year old kids.. not like they are 24 and been through the VFL or (US College) system etc.. and you know what they are capable of.. there is still a lot of unknowns about these young guys.
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Yeh hmmmm
 
KA.. the greatest myth in AFL at the moment is the thought that top 5 draft picks are the 'be all' of getting back to the top..

let's look at the top 4 teams from this season and how they got to the top...

Look at Hawthorn...
They have had 7 top 10 picks since 2000. (4 in top 5)
2001 - hodge, 2003 - Rough, Franklin, Lewis, 2005 - Ellis, 2006 - Thorp

As of today they will have only 3 of those picks (two top 5 picks) lining up for them next year..

Hawthorn improved when it start developing talent and recruiting older players like burgoyne etc... to protect the younger blokes.

Look at Sydney...
They have had 2 top 10 picks since 2000 (1 in top 5)
2002 - McVeigh, 2009 - Rohan

As of next year they *might* have one playing, if rohan recovers from injury, in their best 22.

Sydney has traded, developed and poached talent through alternative sources for many years to develop a strong list.

Look at Geelong....
They have had 4 top 10 picks since 2000 (NONE in the top 5)
2001 - Bartel, 2002 - Mackie, 2003 - Tenance, 2006 - Selwood

As of next year they will have three of those players remaining.

Geelong improved because they started a list that grew together and they have kept injecting youth for a variety of sources and haven't been afraid to trade to fill needs and keep the list fresh.. Trading Mummy is a good example of this.

Look at Freo....
They have had 6 top 10 picks since 2000 (3 in the top 5)
2001 - Polak, 2003- Dunn, 2005 - Drum, 2007 - Palmer, 2008- Hill, 2009 - Morabito

As of next year they will have two still on the list, with one struggling to overcome injury..

They improved through keeping and developing talent, better talent identification and also through strong trading and picking up recycled players and using the rookie drafts.

So I would again wonder, why is the obsession with draft picks?? Why are they seen as the holy grail when not a single top 4 team from last year got there using a sole 'drafting only' youth strategy?? I'm not suggesting they are worthless.. or they should be thrown away.. but ffs.. ppl need to get serious about just how much they can and cannot achieve with one pick.
 

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Not sure how much of Melbourne you watch rines, but I would take Nathan Jones ahead of David Myers. Single handedly carried the most pathetic midfield of the last decade on his shoulders alone this year and (IMHO) was very, very unlucky to miss out on AA (top 40) squad selection such was his dominance in losing sides.
 
The other huge oversight there is that if Melbourne can't back their overhaul to extend to their clearly shitful development, they might as well pack it in. If you want to talk probability, you simply can't blame bad luck or "poor recruiting" for squandering a decade of high draft picks, particularly when the players picked were widely recognised pre-draft as the best of the bunch.

Moving beyond that, you shouldn't have any trouble securing an individual player of the calibre of Myers or Vince with Melbourne's next pick, ~22. There's simply no need to throw away pick 2 on fringe mature types.
 
rines said:
You'll get no argument from me that they are 'unlikely' to trade pick 2 HOWEVER.. let us take a roll call of all MELBOURNE's early draft picks in the last 13 years (since playing off in the 2000 GF against us)... and then lets compare whether Melbourne would prefer that player or Myers + Vince at their club, hypothetically speak, right now:
2001 - #9 - Luke Molan (never played a game) - Myers/Vince Wins
2002 - #14 - Daniel Bell - Myers/Vince Wins
#15 - Nick Smith - Myers/Vince Wins
2003 - #3 - Colin Sylvia - Myers/Vince Wins
- #5 - Brock McLean - Myers/Vince Wins
2004 - #13 - Matthew Bate - Myers/Vince Wins
2005 - #12 - Nathan Jones - Myers/Vince Win (but close)
2006 - #12 - James Frawley - Myers/Vince Win
2007 - #4 - Cale Morton - Myers/Vince Wins
- #14 - Jack Grimes - Myers/Vince Win (but close)
2008 - #1 - Jack Watts - Myers/Vince Win
2009 - #1 - Tom Scully - Scully Wins
#2 - Jack Trengrove - Myers/Vince Win (But Close)
#11 - Jordan Gysberts - Myers/Vince Win
2010 - #12 - Lucas Cook - Myers/Vince Win
2011 - No picks in top 15
2012 - #4 - Jimmy Toumpass - Too early to call

So based on their prior recruiting record Melbourne have a 1/6 chance that their top 5 pick will be better than Myers/Vince. They have a 1/15 chance that Myers/Vince will be better than any player they select with a top 15 pick.

That should just explain how much of a lottery drafting is ffs. Also how very difficult it is to have an ALL youth team.. so Aish gets drafted.. who leads him? who blocks for him? who shows him the running patterns required? who mentors him? THAT is why basically no young players have kicked on at melbourne.. they are isolated in a crap team.

If I was Melbourne.. I would take Myers and Vince for Pick 2 and know that I actually have a chance that guys like Trengrove, Grimes, Jones, Toumpas, Viney etc etc might actually have some help to reach their potential.

Let us not forget that David Myers was a pick 6.. so a top 10 draft pick that you KNOW can play to X level.. that is surely more valuable that a pick that is '4 higher' BUT could turn out to be a flop...

It is not Red and Black glasses.. just statistic and common sense.. we over value drafting far too much.. especially as we are talking about 17/18 year old kids.. not like they are 24 and been through the VFL or (US College) system etc.. and you know what they are capable of.. there is still a lot of unknowns about these young guys.
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Sooo, havnt drafted well in the past, therefore will never draft well again in the future?
Alright.
 
rines said:
Crameri to dogs for pick 22
pick 22 to Adelaide for Vince
Myers + Vince to Melbourne
Pick 2 to EFC

I actually think it could be seen as a 'fair' deal by all four teams.. ..
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I don't think there is any chance of this happening. I would take the deal. I don't think Melbourne would give pick two away for Myers and Vince.
 

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FlyingV said:
Sooo, havnt drafted well in the past, therefore will never draft well again in the future?
Alright.
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rines Isn't just saying the previous drafting has been poor, but that drafting is overrated, as per the top 4 comparisons. And I agree, good list management is about drafting sure but more importantly (IMO) trading and attracting the right players is paramount...
 
scezza said:
rines Isn't just saying the previous drafting has been poor, but that drafting is overrated, as per the top 4 comparisons. And I agree, good list management is about drafting sure but more importantly (IMO) trading and attracting the right players is paramount...
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Exactly.. wasn't trying to get bound up in player comparisons.. merely to point out that drafting means very very little.. even if you get it right.. a fantastic young kid coming into Melbourne's team right now.. is probably not going to reach his potential..

As we speak they have traded pick 2 for pick 9 to get dom tyson..

Someone was saying they were going to improve their drafting???

Personally I would have Myers and Vince ahead of Scully but I thought I would be flamed harder... I think Scully is an overrated waste of space..

However general consensus is still that TWO players make the grade above the combo... seems to me that Pick 2 for Myers and Vince would have been a good deal.
 
Scully was going along nicely at Melbourne

Hes then headed to GWS as his choice and to become a gun young player in that team is going to be quite difficult. Especially when hes either getting tagged or doing run with roles.

But yes drafting is incredibly over rated and it takes years for many players to have any sort of solid impact consistently.

I thought David Swallow was one of the best recruits coming from his under 18 days/junior days and even he hasnt pushed on as expected. Coniglio the same although he needs more time.
 
rines said:
As we speak they have traded pick 2 for pick 9 to get dom tyson...
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Win for melb imo, Dom seems legit, save for a dodgy hammy, and considering melbournes draft busts of years past as rines pointed out, cant do much better than Dom. and they also upgraded on picks. getting 9 from 20 and 53 from 72.

A better trade than the Myers Vince deal but not by to much. Glad Myers is staying at windy hill tho, love seeing those goals from 65 out of one step!!
 
We'll see.. I think Melbourne could look back and wish they traded Pick 2 for Myers and Vince.. would have been a steal..
 
rines said:
We'll see.. I think Melbourne could look back and wish they traded Pick 2 for Myers and Vince.. would have been a steal..
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We won't ever know what picks would have been traded to 'even out' the deal but as it stands its
Dom Tyson + 9 + 53 or,
Myers + Vince + 20 + 72

Melb got Vince for pick 23 anyway (sylvia compo). I think melb made the right call on the pick 2 trade.

I think they payed overs (slighlty) for Vince as he's 28 and who knows when Melb will be in their next 'window', he could be 33 and not playing consistent 1's
 

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