Player Watch #34 Harry Armstrong

[Punt Road Feral]

The comp doesnt really know just how good our picks are from last year.

Apart from Trainor, none of them played a full season at all and most had long delays.

Hotton missed most of the year early
Armstrong massive hammy injury
Faul knee after looking promising
Lalor Hammy played about half a season
Smillie never played at all

If the injury gods smile on us next year, hopefully all these young players get full seasons and get to play in the same side all at once.

Under the radar is the way to go.

The kids stay humble and hungry and don’t let the hype get to their heads.

 

[tunksy]

Watched him from a longtime and is from my club and yes i do know the family
I will go away if i've intruded on your board

Please stay you’ve added to the conversation since he was drafted to us. You’re welcome here in my eyes.

 

[bedford]

Please stay you’ve added to the conversation since he was drafted to us. You’re welcome here in my eyes.

Thanks for that , always excited to see kids from my club get drafted , number 1 is big Max who is our number 1 member

 

[Moppey]

Was a very good tactic investing in all Vic lads that appear to be pretty close already ,

Pretty sure that was just a happy coincidence.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Pretty sure that was just a happy coincidence.

Definitely not a coincidence. It was a concerted effort by the recruitment team, and they stated it clearly so at the time.

 

[Moppey]

Definitely not a coincidence. It was a concerted effort by the recruitment team, and they stated it clearly so at the time.

you can believe what you want. But Lalor was always going #1, Smillie was clearly the best player left at 7, Hotton was taken because they feared Sydney were into him and they loved his talent would have been top 5 if not for acl. Faull they rated the best kpf in the draft and were not prepared to go any later Trainor was clearly the best kpd left in the draft.
Na it was coincidence.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

you can believe what you want. But Lalor was always going #1, Smillie was clearly the best player left at 7, Hotton was taken because they feared Sydney were into him and they loved his talent would have been top 5 if not for acl. Faull they rated the best kpf in the draft and were not prepared to go any later Trainor was clearly the best kpd left in the draft.
Na it was coincidence.

Yes, sorry, I actually think you're right. I recall listening to a discussion about this after the draft on Fox Footy where they were remarking on the existing closeness of these draftees - it was the likes of Montagna and co who said it was intentional, and wasn't from the club. I don't think the footy club ever officially took this line.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yes, sorry, I actually think you're right. I recall listening to a discussion about this after the draft on Fox Footy where they were remarking on the existing closeness of these draftees - it was the likes of Montagna and co who said it was intentional, and wasn't from the club. I don't think the footy club ever officially took this line.

Correct as that may be, Richmond definitely has a strong preference for Victorians with their most valuable picks. That, or avoidance of players from go home factor states WA, SA, NSW, Qld.

Though the 2024 draft was heavy with Victorian talent at the top end, before Richmond took Sims at 28, the following players from non-Vic go home factor states were drafted:

4 Draper
5 Ashcroft
9 Lombard
16 Allan
24 Angove
26 Bowman

Gerreyn, Clarke, Gallop were players who Richmond could have taken with the Sims pick without raising eyebrows, but didn't. So there were definitely options there the club could have drafted or bid on.

It is really noticeable of the 19 top 30 picks currently on our list only one, Sam Banks, is not Victorian, and none are drafted or traded who are from "go home" states.

Given Qld, NSW, SA and WA combined supply around 30+% of the total population of AFL players, you might expect to see about 6 x top 30 picks from this states on our list. That there are none whatsoever suggests very strongly this is not the result of random forces, but rather is driven by a deliberate policy by the club. I wouldn't think the club has an outright ban on using top 30 picks on go home recruits but I do think it is likely they would need to think a player from a go home state was clearly a better prospect to pick him over a Victorian.

Of course if this is a deliberate part of the club's strategy they wouldn't announce it openly. There would be absolutely no benefit in making it known.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Correct as that may be, Richmond definitely has a strong preference for Victorians with their most valuable picks. That, or avoidance of players from go home factor states WA, SA, NSW, Qld.

Though the 2024 draft was heavy with Victorian talent at the top end, before Richmond took Sims at 28, the following players from non-Vic go home factor states were drafted:

4 Draper
5 Ashcroft
9 Lombard
16 Allan
24 Angove
26 Bowman

Gerreyn, Clarke, Gallop were players who Richmond could have taken with the Sims pick without raising eyebrows, but didn't. So there were definitely options there the club could have drafted or bid on.

It is really noticeable of the 19 top 30 picks currently on our list only one, Sam Banks, is not Victorian, and none are drafted or traded who are from "go home" states.

Given Qld, NSW, SA and WA combined supply around 30+% of the total population of AFL players, you might expect to see about 6 x top 30 picks from this states on our list. That there are none whatsoever suggests very strongly this is not the result of random forces, but rather is driven by a deliberate policy by the club. I wouldn't think the club has an outright ban on using top 30 picks on go home recruits but I do think it is likely they would need to think a player from a go home state was clearly a better prospect to pick him over a Victorian.

Of course if this is a deliberate part of the club's strategy they wouldn't announce it openly. There would be absolutely no benefit in making it known.

Yeah, it's a great point you've made MR.

There's no doubt the list management at the club is prepared to play the long game atm, a luxury not often bestowed upon a footy club given the "immediate success' demands of supporters etc.

We're in a glorious position of still coming off the post-dynasty after-glow - not sure about you, but I'm definitely still feeling it - which has entitled our list managers the opportunity of implementing a proper no-shortcuts rebuild, rather than the usual piecemeal "let's keep the wolves at bay" approach, which often undermines long-term success.

That they have thought pragmatically enough to mitigate future "go home tendencies" in our draftees is a testament to the current strength of the club, a really an even bigger tribute to those who enabled this line of thinking - Gale, O'Neill, Balme etc - by bringing such triumph in the recent iteration of our list build.

 

[THE_GUN]

There were links to Sims very early also
I remember back in june/july there was chatter around forums and even a reporter ( cant exactly remember who it was that mentioned that Richmond and Sims connection)

 

[SleepingGiant]

Yeah, it's a great point you've made MR.

There's no doubt the list management at the club is prepared to play the long game atm, a luxury not often bestowed upon a footy club given the "immediate success' demands of supporters etc.

We're in a glorious position of still coming off the post-dynasty after-glow - not sure about you, but I'm definitely still feeling it - which has entitled our list managers the opportunity of implementing a proper no-shortcuts rebuild, rather than the usual piecemeal "let's keep the wolves at bay" approach, which often undermines long-term success.

That they have thought pragmatically enough to mitigate future "go home tendencies" in our draftees is a testament to the current strength of the club, a really an even bigger tribute to those who enabled this line of thinking - Gale, O'Neill, Balme etc - by bringing such triumph in the recent iteration of our list build.

It makes sense to have all Vic players as your young core then when you are close to contention you can risk it a little (i.e. Bolton, Baker, etc). The last thing you want is someone wanting to go home in their peak years to settle down. It allows you to have your 24-28 year old core from VIC and then by the time the interstate kids are in their peak you are at the end of your window and trade them out to cash in like we did.

 

[Elgreedo]

So, it's been on my mind for yonks that he's just definitely not 195cm. He doesn't really look close to key position size. I've been impressed with some of the smarts that he's shown in certain contested situations and have optimism that he can play the game and kick goals, but he's a perplexing one based on how I perceive his height.

What possie will he end up playing? Is he a beefier and hopefully better Bayley Fritsch

31

Bayley Fritsch

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.6

4star

K

10.4

4star

HB

5.2

4star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.5

2star

K

7.7

3star

HB

1.8

1star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.0

2star

G

1.3

5star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.4

5star

, or am I way off and he's going to be a strong marking target for years to come?

 

[bedford]

So, it's been on my mind for yonks that he's just definitely not 195cm. He doesn't really look close to key position size. I've been impressed with some of the smarts that he's shown in certain contested situations and have optimism that he can play the game and kick goals, but he's a perplexing one based on how I perceive his height.

What possie will he end up playing? Is he a beefier and hopefully better Bayley Fritsch, or am I way off and he's going to be a strong marking target for years to come?

Nothing like Fritch

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So, it's been on my mind for yonks that he's just definitely not 195cm. He doesn't really look close to key position size. I've been impressed with some of the smarts that he's shown in certain contested situations and have optimism that he can play the game and kick goals, but he's a perplexing one based on how I perceive his height.

What possie will he end up playing? Is he a beefier and hopefully better Bayley Fritsch, or am I way off and he's going to be a strong marking target for years to come?

My theory is the top of head height is not as relevant as the top of shoulder height. The latter is how big your actual body is. Having a long neck wouldn't confer any great advantage for footballers. We can see from this photo that while Trainor looks comfortably taller at the top of the head, Armstrong has a comfortably bigger body, certainly taller. So if Trainor is going to become key position sized, then Armstrong definitely will.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

So, it's been on my mind for yonks that he's just definitely not 195cm. He doesn't really look close to key position size. I've been impressed with some of the smarts that he's shown in certain contested situations and have optimism that he can play the game and kick goals, but he's a perplexing one based on how I perceive his height.

What possie will he end up playing? Is he a beefier and hopefully better Bayley Fritsch, or am I way off and he's going to be a strong marking target for years to come?

Jason Dunstall wasn't that tall.
He turned out alright

 

[Elgreedo]

Jason Dunstall wasn't that tall.
He turned out alright

No suggestion from me that he won't be alright, but definitely wondering what position he'll play. Can I assume from your reply that you think he'll be a marking key forward?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

No suggestion from me that he won't be alright, but definitely wondering what position he'll play. Can I assume from your reply that you think he'll be a marking key forward?

will takeover from Lynch.

 

[captain cotch 9]

So, it's been on my mind for yonks that he's just definitely not 195cm. He doesn't really look close to key position size. I've been impressed with some of the smarts that he's shown in certain contested situations and have optimism that he can play the game and kick goals, but he's a perplexing one based on how I perceive his height.

What possie will he end up playing? Is he a beefier and hopefully better Bayley Fritsch, or am I way off and he's going to be a strong marking target for years to come?

Height is misconceiving.
Jack R was taller than Nick R

 

[Ceehook]

My theory is the top of head height is not as relevant as the top of shoulder height. The latter is how big your actual body is. Having a long neck wouldn't confer any great advantage for footballers. We can see from this photo that while Trainor looks comfortably taller at the top of the head, Armstrong has a comfortably bigger body, certainly taller. So if Trainor is going to become key position sized, then Armstrong definitely will.



View attachment 2463001

is Lalor taller than those two when lying down

 

[tigs2010]

Height is misconceiving.
Jack R was taller than Nick R

Was he always taller or just the year he said players got to list their own heights so he added a few cm's lol

 

[Football Tragic]

I do have a little concern with Harry's set shots - in the last few games, I noticed that he seems to consistently kick the ball at a lower trajectory and as a result, missing. I hope this is just an anomaly and not a bad habit that has set in. Kicking through the ball and giving it more height, gives you more accuracy when kicking for goal.

Anyway, just thought I'd bring it up because its stuck with me since the end of the last season

 

[Groupie_]

I do have a little concern with Harry's set shots - in the last few games, I noticed that he seems to consistently kick the ball at a lower trajectory and as a result, missing. I hope this is just an anomaly and not a bad habit that has set in. Kicking through the ball and giving it more height, gives you more accuracy when kicking for goal.

Anyway, just thought I'd bring it up because its stuck with me since the end of the last season

him and faull have big kicking issues

 

[Muddiemoose]

him and faull have big kicking issues

Don’t worry
So did Richo

Just give them 15 shots a game and we will be fine

 

[Punt Road Feral]

I do have a little concern with Harry's set shots - in the last few games, I noticed that he seems to consistently kick the ball at a lower trajectory and as a result, missing. I hope this is just an anomaly and not a bad habit that has set in. Kicking through the ball and giving it more height, gives you more accuracy when kicking for goal.

Anyway, just thought I'd bring it up because its stuck with me since the end of the last season

From memory he was extremely efficient at Coates level and also stated Matty Lloyd at Haileybury played a major role in his routine being effective at that level.

Hoping it's just fatigue (both mental and physical) at the top level with a young body that has seen his accuracy dip in year 1.

 

[SplintWhisky]

My theory is the top of head height is not as relevant as the top of shoulder height. The latter is how big your actual body is. Having a long neck wouldn't confer any great advantage for footballers. We can see from this photo that while Trainor looks comfortably taller at the top of the head, Armstrong has a comfortably bigger body, certainly taller. So if Trainor is going to become key position sized, then Armstrong definitely will.



View attachment 2463001

Long neck helps if your name is Selwood.