Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[seysearles]

Thoughts? Would you be for or against Queensland (likely Brisbane) receiving the 20th licence into the AFL? Why/Why not?

For context, it's looking increasingly likely that a new 50-60k oval stadium will be built in Brisbane for the upcoming 2032 Olympics and this team would be an obvious fit for the second tenant of that stadium. Many indicators do seem to be there in terms of current/future population, the current/projected trajectory of AFL popularity growth, massive growth in junior participation rates, high end draftable talent coming out of Queensland, future major infrastructure for the Olympics, etc. There's currently approximately 4 million people living in south east Queensland (2.5m in Brisbane) and that's expected to balloon to 6 million in the early 2040s, with the entire state of Queensland surpassing 7.2 million by that stage.

Just an idea but I think in terms of completing the presence in all major centres, it would be nice to have a "top end" team that maybe had some sort of commitment to indigenous communities and access to players. Hopefully its not too contrived or artificial but if there is some way to have them representing the North of the country (everything north of Brisbane) and play games out of Darwin (152,500) 5gms, Cairns (163,200) 3gms, Townsville (204,500) 3gms and Alice Springs (29,700) 1gm every year it would really "complete" the presence of the league nation wide.

The region shown in the map below is officially known as Northern Australia and has a population of 1.4m people. I dont think its unreasonable also to have them based out of Brisbane either so that they can have access to all the modern facilities and attract players.

An example of something like that working pretty well is Hawthorn in Tasmania where they played home games in a remote location and generated a very strong supporter base there and made it a fortress over the years.

The distances are always going to be an issue but the AFL might need to make concessions to them for the additional travel (could they have their own "branded" plane like "The Flying Doctors?). Also in terms of hours in the air its probably still less than the WA teams. Here are the approximate direct flight times from Brisbane to those destinations:

• Brisbane → Cairns: 2h 30m.
• Brisbane → Townsville: 2h.
• Brisbane → Darwin: 4h 15m.
• Brisbane → Alice Springs: 3h 10m.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Just an idea but I think in terms of completing the presence in all major centres, it would be nice to have a "top end" team that maybe had some sort of commitment to indigenous communities and access to players. Hopefully its not too contrived or artificial but if there is some way to have them representing the North of the country (everything north of Brisbane) and play games out of Darwin (152,500) 5gms, Cairns (163,200) 3gms, Townsville (204,500) 3gms and Alice Springs (29,700) 1gm every year it would really "complete" the presence of the league nation wide.

The region shown in the map below is officially known as Northern Australia and has a population of 1.4m people. I dont think its unreasonable also to have them based out of Brisbane either so that they can have access to all the modern facilities and attract players.

An example of something like that working pretty well is Hawthorn in Tasmania where they played home games in a remote location and generated a very strong supporter base there and made it a fortress over the years.

The distances are always going to be an issue but the AFL might need to make concessions to them for the additional travel (could they have their own "branded" plane like "The Flying Doctors?). Also in terms of hours in the air its probably still less than the WA teams. Here are the approximate direct flight times from Brisbane to those Northern Australia destinations:

• Brisbane → Cairns: 2 hours 20 minutes
• Brisbane → Townsville: 2 hours 10 minutes
• Brisbane → Darwin: 4 hours 15 minutes
• Brisbane → Alice Springs: 3 hours 10 minutes

View attachment 2416272

I appreciate the effort you've put into this, but that is still a buttload of travel. It takes longer to get from Brisbane to Darwin than it does from Perth to Melbourne.

Freo spent the most time in the air this year at 80 hours and 25 mins. Some quick-ish maths says your idea based out of Brisbane would spend 127.5 hours in the air. They also wouldn't get to spend any time actually in the communities they're meant to be representing.

Just an idea but I think in terms of completing the presence in all major centres,

Just wondering, what's your definition of a major centre? Townsville is the largest city you've mentioned here and there would still be five larger cities not represented.

 

[seysearles]

I appreciate the effort you've put into this, but that is still a buttload of travel. It takes longer to get from Brisbane to Darwin than it does from Perth to Melbourne.

Freo spent the most time in the air this year at 80 hours and 25 mins. Some quick-ish maths says your idea based out of Brisbane would spend 127.5 hours in the air. They also wouldn't get to spend any time actually in the communities they're meant to be representing.

Yes I acknowledge the travel is a major issue and as i said they would need concessions but it could also be worked into their identity (hence the plane suggestion and flying doctors reference). There are also variations where they travel less by assigning more games to FNQ or basing the team out of Darwin. Regarding their presence in the communities they represent I refer to the Hawthorn model where their only presence in tasmania is some pre-season community things and then the day before or after games. Following this model they still they have a loyal committed following in tasmania (25% of Hawthorns members are based interstate). The members of theNorthern Australian communities would just have to accept that they're not going to be attending team training and following a club in the same way an urban club supporter would but that's the case for many many supporters across the country that don't live nearby the team that they support.

Just wondering, what's your definition of a major centre?

Well Darwin is a state capital so that qualifies as a major centre for me in spite of its population and demographics. Cairns and Townsville are the two largest population centres in FNQ and also are tourist centres. Alice is Alice. Its tiny but its the symbolic heart of the nation and needs to be tied to the identity of the club.





I think if it's based in Brisbane (2,526,238) it will drum up local support in the city also with people who feel connected to country/rural communities (which is quite a lot of Queenslanders) establishing a townfolk v countryfolk dynamic with the Lions. I'm not saying this is an obvious step based on the numbers but, like Tasmania, its a move designed to complete the league and have a presence across the entire nation in the most viable way possible.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Yes I acknowledge the travel is a major issue and as i said they would need concessions but it could also be worked into their identity (hence the plane suggestion and flying doctors reference). There are also variations where they travel less by assigning more games to FNQ or basing the team out of Darwin. Regarding their presence in the communities they represent I refer to the Hawthorn model where their only presence in tasmania is some pre-season community things and then the day before or after games. Following this model they still they have a loyal committed following in tasmania (25% of Hawthorns members are based interstate). The members of theNorthern Australian communities would just have to accept that they're not going to be attending team training and following a club in the same way an urban club supporter would but that's the case for many many supporters across the country that don't live nearby the team the support.

I think the problem with a northern team is you end up trying to do too much to please everyone, and end up with a compromised model that pleases no one.

Travel will be one of the biggest issues regardless of where you base them. The more you spread games, the larger the travel load becomes. Darwin to Cairns or Alice Springs is the same flight time as Brisbane to Melbourne. So even basing a team in Darwin, you essentially give them 17 interstate trips a year.

Well Darwin is a state capital so that qualifies as a major centre for me in spite of its population and demographics. Cairns and Townsville are the two largest population centres in FNQ and also are tourist centres. Alice is Alice. Its tiny but its a symbolic location and be tied to the identity of the club.

Fair arguments of what constitutes a major centre, but it's a stretch to say there's it would complete the presence in all major centres when Canberra's clearly missing in that respect.

 

[Toump Ass]

These campaigners already need handouts to survive. Why would we want another team in the AFL that would only see success from AFL charity?

 

[StackedHunch]

I reckon you’ve got 10 max before it becomes a thing.

Surely having two, maybe three new clubs on AFL life support will mean they look to the self-sustaining Perth market for number 20?

 

[Canberra Pear]

Surely having two, maybe three new clubs on AFL life support will mean they look to the self-sustaining Perth market for number 20?

I've mentioned in on other threads, but I reckon Canberra would have a similar level of sustainability to a third Perth team.

 

[StackedHunch]

I've mentioned in on other threads, but I reckon Canberra would have a similar level of sustainability to a third Perth team.

It would be phenomenal if they did, particularly given how convenient it is for all bar the WA teams.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It would be phenomenal if they did, particularly given how convenient it is for all bar the WA teams.

Having looked into the numbers far too many times, I think we are.

But you're right, Canberra is much more convenient team for the rest of the comp. Canberra would become the closest interstate roadtrip for Victorian teams (seven hours), reduce the average travel distance for Queensland and Sydney teams, and be barely longer for Adelaide teams (and probably quicker once you factor in travel from Melbourne Airport).

 

[StackedHunch]

Having looked into the numbers far too many times, I think we are.

But you're right, Canberra is much more convenient team for the rest of the comp. Canberra would become the closest interstate roadtrip for Victorian teams (seven hours), reduce the average travel distance for Queensland and Sydney teams, and be barely longer for Adelaide teams (and probably quicker once you factor in travel from Melbourne Airport).

Also an ideal place for a weekend trip - so empty, with enough to visit for a day or two. Maybe the ACT government needs to sponsor a bid.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Also an ideal place for a weekend trip - so empty, with enough to visit for a day or two. Maybe the ACT government needs to sponsor a bid.

Not an official bid, but the ACT Government has voiced their support.

 

[seysearles]

I love the idea that Canberra has an AFL presence but it still leaves the entire North end of the country unaccounted for which just seems wrong. Notwithstanding the indigenous component which has a very strong identity in the North of the country and needs support. Maybe i'm being romantic but if there is going to be a nepo team this really should be it. I know there is a frustration regarding GC and GWS right now but that wont last forever. I remember when the Swans and the Bears were basket cases and now theyre both established (almost heritage) clubs with great support and identity. Eventually that will also be GWS and GC mark my words. Tasmania and North Oz are a different story because of the population density and demographics and warrant - in my humble opinion - some charity for the "identity of the game" much more so.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Maybe i'm being romantic but if there is going to be a nepo team this really should be it.

But why does there have to be a nepo team?

I get the desire for a northern team, and if it were borderline feasible, it could be a good thing for the AFL to get behind (ignoring all the other logistical issues).

But it needs something like $18m of federal funding every year (plus the feds to fund a new stadium). So it'd have to be the federal government's nepo team, not the AFL's.

 

[seysearles]

But why does there have to be a nepo team?

I get the desire for a northern team, and if it were borderline feasible, it could be a good thing for the AFL to get behind (ignoring all the other logistical issues).

But it needs something like $18m of federal funding every year (plus the feds to fund a new stadium). So it'd have to be the federal government's nepo team, not the AFL's.

Because there is something very satisfying about having a presence across the entire physical nation and specifically in the iconic geographies of our vast land like the red centre and great barrier reef. Also i stand by the aboriginal component. Football is strongly supported in those communities and is a part of Australian culture they've made a great contribution to and although I'm not typically in favour of empty gestures of guilt I feel that this could be a legitimate way to have an entity that is designed to specifically represent them and their heartland. I think that alone would give it plenty of neutral support as well.

I do concede that you run the risk of pleasing no one by trying to be everything to everyone though. It wouldnt be easy to get the formula right but i find it interesting to explore.

 

[Freomaniac]

But why does there have to be a nepo team?

I get the desire for a northern team, and if it were borderline feasible, it could be a good thing for the AFL to get behind (ignoring all the other logistical issues).

But it needs something like $18m of federal funding every year (plus the feds to fund a new stadium). So it'd have to be the federal government's nepo team, not the AFL's.

A 3rd Queensland side could work. 6 million people in Queensland.

But I share similar views with you, I want Canberra to get in. That is only because they deserve a side

 

[Canberra Pear]

A 3rd Queensland side could work. 6 million people in Queensland.

But I share similar views with you, I want Canberra to get in. That is only because they deserve a side

I agree that Queensland has capacity for a third team, but I don't think its north does.

Three quarters of that population is concentrated in the Southeast, and if Queensland were to get another team, I think that's the only area it could come from.

 

[GC2015]

Interesting time to revisit this thread now that Brisbane are back-to-back premiers and Gold Coast have secured their first ever finals win. The rumour doing the rounds in the last few weeks is that Queensland has officially overtaken Western Australia as the state with the second most Aussie rules participants behind Victoria. Both Queensland clubs recorded record membership numbers with the Lions securing 75k members and the Suns hitting 30k members for the first time. Predictions suggest Brisbane will exceed 80k members next year and the Suns should be pushing towards 40k if they maintain their trajectory.

Perhaps the most important aspect is the general vibe up here towards Aussie rules. The overall positivity and pride in our state's teams is at an all-time high IMO. This is really important because it suggests to me that the sport is being embraced on a deeper level, even by those who would previously criticise the sport. We're cutting through and genuinely turning this place into a footy state. It's massive for the growth of the game!

I do wonder if this kind of momentum will once again start up talks about a third QLD team in the near future. Queensland undoubtedly offers the greatest level of realistic opportunity for growth as it's not tied down by deep historical ties to the NSWRL like they are down in Sydney. The Sunshine Coast has just recently produced premiership players in Sam Marshall and Ty Gallop this year. Perhaps it's time for the league to seriously start looking at starting a team in that north Brisbane/Sunny Coast region of South East Queensland that can also service all the way up to Central Queensland. I'm absolutely convinced we will see a significant amount of new club members jump on board and more Queenslanders drafted into the AFL if it happens. The Sunny Coast is proving to be a bit of a hotbed for footy talent in recent years and a local AFL team there would really kick things off on another level.

 

[CobberRodgers]

A 3rd team?

Should be good.

Finish 14th and your first active pick will be in the 50s by then.

 

[Canberra Pear]

Interesting time to revisit this thread now that Brisbane are back-to-back premiers and Gold Coast have secured their first ever finals win. The rumour doing the rounds in the last few weeks is that Queensland has officially overtaken Western Australia as the state with the second most Aussie rules participants behind Victoria. Both Queensland clubs recorded record membership numbers with the Lions securing 75k members and the Suns hitting 30k members for the first time. Predictions suggest Brisbane will exceed 80k members next year and the Suns should be pushing towards 40k if they maintain their trajectory.

Perhaps the most important aspect is the general vibe up here towards Aussie rules. The overall positivity and pride in our state's teams is at an all-time high IMO. This is really important because it suggests to me that the sport is being embraced on a deeper level, even by those who would previously criticise the sport. We're cutting through and genuinely turning this place into a footy state. It's massive for the growth of the game!

I do wonder if this kind of momentum will once again start up talks about a third QLD team in the near future. Queensland undoubtedly offers the greatest level of realistic opportunity for growth as it's not tied down by deep historical ties to the NSWRL like they are down in Sydney. The Sunshine Coast has just recently produced premiership players in Sam Marshall and Ty Gallop this year. Perhaps it's time for the league to seriously start looking at starting a team in that north Brisbane/Sunny Coast region of South East Queensland that can also service all the way up to Central Queensland. I'm absolutely convinced we will see a significant amount of new club members jump on board and more Queenslanders drafted into the AFL if it happens. The Sunny Coast is proving to be a bit of a hotbed for footy talent in recent years and a local AFL team there would really kick things off on another level.

Are there any plans for a Sunshine Coast stadium?

I thought I saw one in an early masterplan of that Aura development, but I haven't seen anything concrete. The Maroochydore complex has been vying for bigger events (the were going to host the International Cup before Covid hit), could that main oval be upgraded to AFL standard?

Would be good to see a similar deal to what North have in WA. A Victorian team hosting games against the Lions and Suns to help build momentum.

 

[GC2015]

Are there any plans for a Sunshine Coast stadium?

I thought I saw one in an early masterplan of that Aura development, but I haven't seen anything concrete. The Maroochydore complex has been vying for bigger events (the were going to host the International Cup before Covid hit), could that main oval be upgraded to AFL standard?

Would be good to see a similar deal to what North have in WA. A Victorian team hosting games against the Lions and Suns to help build momentum.

I think there are plans for upgrades to Sunshine Coast venues due to the Olympics, but I'm not sure about any oval developments. If the AFL were forward thinking about this (which I'm sure they are) then they would be having discussions with the Queensland government now and trying to route some of the Olympic stadia funding into a venue that can host oval sports like Aussie rules and cricket. Do it now while the funding is available and then you can revisit setting up a team in that area later down the track when you're ready.

I do agree with you that it would be a good step forward to have a Victorian club sell off a home game to the Queensland government and play a team like the Lions or Suns on the Sunny Coast to begin building momentum in the region. You've got to strike while the iron is hot in these situations, just as we did 20 years ago on the back of Brisbane's triple premiership era eventually leading to the creation of the Gold Coast Suns.

I've been thinking that the model for a team like this could be mostly Sunshine Coast based in terms of home games and then the big ones against teams like Brisbane and Collingwood can be played at the new Olympic stadium. Either that or you do it the other way around like the Dolphins in the NRL.

 

[Canberra Pear]

I think there are plans for upgrades to Sunshine Coast venues due to the Olympics, but I'm not sure about any oval developments. If the AFL were forward thinking about this (which I'm sure they are) then they would be having discussions with the Queensland government now and trying to route some of the Olympic stadia funding into a venue that can host oval sports like Aussie rules and cricket. Do it now while the funding is available and then you can revisit setting up a team in that area later down the track when you're ready.

I do agree with you that it would be a good step forward to have a Victorian club sell off a home game to the Queensland government and play a team like the Lions or Suns on the Sunny Coast to begin building momentum in the region. You've got to strike while the iron is hot in these situations, just as we did 20 years ago on the back of Brisbane's triple premiership era eventually leading to the creation of the Gold Coast Suns.

I've been thinking that the model for a team like this could be mostly Sunshine Coast based in terms of home games and then the big ones against teams like Brisbane and Collingwood can be played at the new Olympic stadium. Either that or you do it the other way around like the Dolphins in the NRL.

I'm not a Queenslander, but my preference would be primarily on the Sunshine Coast rather than the Dolphins' approach of a token presence.

Qld3 could be ready for the 21/22 expansion round. But the Sunny Coast is so far down the list of priorities for the NRL.

Their only full-time professional presence is netball. There's a genuine opportunity to plant the flag on the Sunshine Coast before any other footy code.

 

[GC2015]

I'm not a Queenslander, but my preference would be primarily on the Sunshine Coast rather than the Dolphins' approach of a token presence.

Qld3 could be ready for the 21/22 expansion round. But the Sunny Coast is so far down the list of priorities for the NRL.

Their only full-time professional presence is netball. There's a genuine opportunity to plant the flag on the Sunshine Coast before any other footy code.

I guess it's just a question of whether the AFL wants another regional presence in the Sunny Coast or if they want to hammer away at the third largest capital city in Australia (where they are currently experiencing good growth). I think one factor may be the fear of what will happen when the Lions fall away. Starting a second team in Brisbane mitigates that risk to some degree and potentially covers any down years the Lions may have in the future. That's how it tends to go in SA and WA like we saw this year with the Crows and Power trading finals places as well as Freo making the finals while West Coast languish at the bottom of the ladder.

 

[JPetro83]

16 was more than enough.. what a mess

 

[Obeanie1]

Oh great. More stupid academy zones.

Zones aren't getting bigger.

Just means Lions and Suns need to share the QLD pool.

Or Lions don't get access as they don't need it and have father sons galore.

 

[GC2015]

Zones aren't getting bigger.

Just means Lions and Suns need to share the QLD pool.

Or Lions don't get access as they don't need it and have father sons galore.

Starting a Northern Brisbane / Sunshine Coast AFL team would actually hurt the Lions quite a bit because most of their prominent academy graduates like Andrews (North Brisbane), Hipwood (Sunshine Coast), Marshall (Sunshine Coast), Gallop (Sunshine Coast) are from that area and would be zoned to the 20th team instead. The Lions would then become reliant on southern Brisbane and the western corridor of Ipswich, which is far less known for producing AFL footballers.

So, in this case, you would actually be splitting an existing academy and the Lions get the short end of the stick. It's like when they initially had zone access to the Gold Coast and it was taken away so they missed out on drafting players like Riewoldt, Tippett, Hale and Beams.