Expansion A third team in Queensland? AFL acknowledges QLD3 as a 20th licence option

[Purple Suit]

Another you'd want it is to shore up the Brisbane market for when the Lions aren't doing so well.

That's not so much of an issue right now, but think back to the era between the threepeat and Chris Fagan joining as coach.

Crowds were down in Brisbane, TV viewership was down, local media coverage was poor, and as a result grassroots footy didn't grow as fast as it could have.

Two teams in Perth and Adelaide means when the Crows or Eagles are down, hopefully the other us up and about.

The Crows are in the finals while Port's down the ladder, and vice-versa.

Freeo nearly makes the finals while the Eagles rebuild, and vice versa.

In Sydney, it also means the clubs focus on growing thd game in different parts of the metropolitan area.

The added bonus, if they share a stadium, is you get better economies of scale. It means 22 regular season games at the oval stadium instead if 11, plus more frequent finals.

This really isn't necessary and not something you can plan for. Brisbane's crowds will drop right off again when they have a down turn and the AFL will continue to pump money in. They will soon have a 60K stadium that they will struggle to fill even when they are flying.

Much easier to just put an extra team in WA in Perth and cash in on all the attendance and WA eyeballs taking more notice. It will not take long for it to need less more than any rugby state team or small Melbourne team. We're getting close to capacity with a 60K stadium on actual sales since WC sell out even when they are bad. By the time we are going for the 20th team, it'll be maxed out over here with no seats left.

Rugby will take those fans but it will swing back quickly if they throw in a WA3 team.

 

[Purple Suit]

Ipswich playing at the new 63k stadium maybe.

Alternatively, the cheaper solution is just to make sure Bris never go into the death spiral they were in for 15 years prior to Fagan. The AFL can’t afford for Brisbane to be as bad as they were in the 2010s again.

Why? The AFL just need to step back and let teams sort themselves out. All teams need to swing down the ladder at some stage. By propping up special cases with advantages it blows the whole metric out and other teams have to spend longer down the bottom.

If they just made it equal for all teams it would solve itself. You've been up for 7 years now and if you make the finals again next season in an equalised comp you probably need to spend 10 years not making finals. Getting huge talent influxes on the cheap while contending means that won't happen.

The AFL can't afford to swing the pendulum and further away from a fair competition than they already have.

 

[Elixuh]

Why? The AFL just need to step back and let teams sort themselves out. All teams need to swing down the ladder at some stage. By propping up special cases with advantages it blows the whole metric out and other teams have to spend longer down the bottom.

If they just made it equal for all teams it would solve itself. You've been up for 7 years now and if you make the finals again next season in an equalised comp you probably need to spend 10 years not making finals. Getting huge talent influxes on the cheap while contending means that won't happen.

The AFL can't afford to swing the pendulum and further away from a fair competition than they already have.

Because northern clubs matter more to the comp.

 

[loco3]

I think it would be in their best interests to position themselves as a northern Brisbane team (mainly because of the population difference) and the Moreton Bay/Sunshine Coast are viewed as secondary markets for them. The NRL's Dolphins are essentially doing the same thing right now and they get pretty good crowds to Suncorp Stadium, despite the overwhelming popularity of the Broncos in the marketplace.

As for the stadium, it really depends on what kind fo crowd number you'd expect to show up to games most weeks. Right now the Lions seem to sell out just about every home game so it's probably fair to say they'd be averaging at least 40k if they were playing in a bigger stadium. Would a second Brisbane team get close to that? Maybe average 25-30k? I think that would be enough to justify playing as the second tenant at the Olympic stadium.

I think this makes a lot of sense. Brisbane is blessed by having the river - it allows a natural way to divide the city in two. Allowing a North Brisbane team to focus on everything north of the river feels like a naturally geographic focus. That half of the city projected to be somewhere between 1.3-1.4 million by 2040, which is comparable to Adelaide. And that’s not counting Sunshine Coast as a secondary market…

I understand the Lions already have a strong association with the southern suburbs, although their supporters are probably spread all across the city. You might just get them to focus their efforts on the southern suburbs post the introduction of North Brisbane.

I think that’s a really solid proposal for an upcoming expansion and imagine that AFL have considered something along these lines.

 

[speedpeck23]

There is no stadium on the Sunshine Coast. Plus, having one club play four games there is overcommitting. If they are to convert anyone to supporting the AFL, you would want them to be Suns or Lions fans, not Saints fans. It would be like making North play away games in Perth on top of their two sold home games in WA.

It is just an example to try to explain my point. Firstly the Saints ( or perhaps another Victorian Club...even Hawthorn !!) would only play 2 "home" games there. One v Brisbane, One v Gold Coast. The Saints (Hawks) also play an away game against Brisbane at the Gabba (ultimately 2032 Olympic Stadium) and an away game against GC on the Gold Coast. The aim is to grow all clubs in QLD. Saints (or Hawks ) main base of course is Melbourne.

They effectively have 4 matches in QLD and are able to sell membership in QLD....building their membership base and sponsorship. It's like what Richmond are currently contemplating by "selling" a match into the SCG against the Giants....you growth both clubs in Sydney. The Tigers would play 2 away games in Sydney ...against Swans and Giants....therefore 3 games in Sydney...sell 3 game membership...if their on field performance is successful they could reach 130,000 members or more in a few years.

I'll admit it is radical. My contention is that many of the "Victorian" clubs already have significant fan bases in QLD and NSW... the AFL by structuring the fixture effectively can capitalize on those support bases and grow membership and match attendance for multiple AFL clubs in QLD and NSW not just the local clubs.

Two existing AFL clubs already have this cross state support base.... Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions.

The aim is the equalize the travel equation for all AFL clubs and grow all AFL clubs and grow the game nationally. If you are truly going to expand the game you have to expand the clubs and utilize the latent strength of the bigger AFL clubs who traditionally play most of their matches in Victoria.....and would continue to do so.

State of Origin is where state parochialism works better.

 

[Walshawk]

It is just an example to try to explain my point. Firstly the Saints ( or perhaps another Victorian Club...even Hawthorn !!) would only play 2 "home" games there. One v Brisbane, One v Gold Coast. The Saints (Hawks) also play an away game against Brisbane at the Gabba (ultimately 2032 Olympic Stadium) and an away game against GC on the Gold Coast. The aim is to grow all clubs in QLD. Saints (or Hawks ) main base of course is Melbourne.

They effectively have 4 matches in QLD and are able to sell membership in QLD....building their membership base and sponsorship. It's like what Richmond are currently contemplating by "selling" a match into the SCG against the Giants....you growth both clubs in Sydney. The Tigers would play 2 away games in Sydney ...against Swans and Giants....therefore 3 games in Sydney...sell 3 game membership...if their on field performance is successful they could reach 130,000 members or more in a few years.

I'll admit it is radical. My contention is that many of the "Victorian" clubs already have significant fan bases in QLD and NSW... the AFL by structuring the fixture effectively can capitalize on those support bases and grow membership and match attendance for multiple AFL clubs in QLD and NSW not just the local clubs.

Two existing AFL clubs already have this cross state support base.... Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions.

The aim is the equalize the travel equation for all AFL clubs and grow all AFL clubs and grow the game nationally. If you are truly going to expand the game you have to expand the clubs and utilize the latent strength of the bigger AFL clubs who traditionally play most of their matches in Victoria.....and would continue to do so.

State of Origin is where state parochialism works better.

I get what you are saying. I just think it is a bad idea. Very little in it for the team selling games. They effectively play four away games v QLD teams when most others will play one. Not good for winning games.

 

[GC2015]

I think this makes a lot of sense. Brisbane is blessed by having the river - it allows a natural way to divide the city in two. Allowing a North Brisbane team to focus on everything north of the river feels like a naturally geographic focus. That half of the city projected to be somewhere between 1.3-1.4 million by 2040, which is comparable to Adelaide. And that’s not counting Sunshine Coast as a secondary market…

I understand the Lions already have a strong association with the southern suburbs, although their supporters are probably spread all across the city. You might just get them to focus their efforts on the southern suburbs post the introduction of North Brisbane.

I think that’s a really solid proposal for an upcoming expansion and imagine that AFL have considered something along these lines.

Yeah, the Lions play on the south side of the river and train out west. If you were to start a second Brisbane team, then it makes sense to base it in the northern suburbs of Brisbane so there's repesentation all over the city + the Moreton Bay/Sunshine Coast area and obviously the Suns already have the southern most part of Queensland sorted as well as North Queensland. I'd hand central QLD to the northern Brisbane team and have them focus on growing the game in that area of the state. Three teams north of the Tweed River essentially shores up the whole of South East Queensland in my mind and helps to mitigate what will inevitably happen when the Lions eventually decline and fall out of the final race.

This year is a perfect example of how important it is to have two teams based in a capital city. Port Adelaide drop out of the 8 > Crows jump into the 8. This keeps the South Australian media/footy fans engaged for the full season + some of September. Sydney drop out of the 8 > Giants make the 8. The New South Wales media has a reason to continue reporting on AFL. West Coast continue to struggle > Fremantle jump into the 8. Keeps the West Australian media/footy fans engaged for the full season + some of September.

We know the Lions will eventually drop out of the 8 - that's inevitable - but what would be great is if there was another team based in Brisbane to pick up the slack and keep the Brisbane media/footy fans engaged for the season + some of September. It works in every other capital city and I think it would work in Brisbane as well. It would also help to reduce the demanding travel schedule that Queensland teams have by allowing them to play an extra 'away' game in South East Queensland and opens the door for big teams like Collingwood to play in Queensland three times a year, which obviously appeases the Collingwood fans based in Queensland and keeps them engaged in the game as well.

I think it makes a lot of sense to have two AFL teams in Brisbane and a third on the Gold Coast. It'd be great for the growth of the game up here.

 

[speedpeck23]

I get what you are saying. I just think it is a bad idea. Very little in it for the team selling games. They effectively play four away games v QLD teams when most others will play one. Not good for winning games.

Every club plays at least 2 games against Queensland teams every season.

 

[Walshawk]

Every club plays at least 2 games against Queensland teams every season.

No. There are 20 games in QLD. Two derbies. So, 18 games v the other 16 clubs. So, most clubs play there once. Hawthorn often not at all.

 

[speedpeck23]

I get what you are saying. I just think it is a bad idea. Very little in it for the team selling games. They effectively play four away games v QLD teams when most others will play one. Not good for winning games.

Your interpreting that a team playing in Sunshine Coast twice a year playing v Bris and GC is an away game ...fair enough. It's open to interpretation. Call it neutral or whatever. My point is that without even really trying large supporter base Victorian clubs would have a significant following in Qld.

Rather that form a new AFL club in Qld... just be more strategic with the fixture and facilitate growth of those supporter bases. The reality is that it is better and easier for the expansion of the AFL to encourage growth of all clubs beyond state borders...particularly the big Victorian clubs into NSW and Qld.

Given that there are 2 clubs each with separate grounds in those states and the fixture is already inequitable in terms of travel playing a home game for Collingwood v GC at Victoria Park (Brisbane) !! or Richmond v Giants at the other G (SCG ) it is worth seeing the impact on the expansion if clubs like Richmond and Collingwood play more often in NSW / QLD.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Do you think a mixed identity between North Brisbane/Moreton Bay LGA and the Sunshine Coast as a secondary market would be a problem for the club?

Agree in principle that the Olympic stadium should be utilised, but I wonder if 8-9 games a year in a 60k capacity stadium is not a great fit. Surely they need 10+ years in a boutique 20k stadium, potentially in the northern suburbs?

Please tell us when and where this concept has ever worked. Everyone should realise by now that stadiums only really work well near CBDs. Waverley was never a good fit for anyone. The Adelaide clubs have done much better out of moving to the CBD than they ever did in the outer suburbs. Even in Townsville they've moved the rugby league stadium close to the CBD. Why go against all those lessons and stick a stadium in the outer suburbs again?

And who is paying for this stadium? Why would the Queensland government shell out for another 20k oval stadium after already putting billions into a 60k one in the same city?

 

[GC2015]

Your interpreting that a team playing in Sunshine Coast twice a year playing v Bris and GC is an away game ...fair enough. It's open to interpretation. Call it neutral or whatever. My point is that without even really trying large supporter base Victorian clubs would have a significant following in Qld.

Rather that form a new AFL club in Qld... just be more strategic with the fixture and facilitate growth of those supporter bases. The reality is that it is better and easier for the expansion of the AFL to encourage growth of all clubs beyond state borders...particularly the big Victorian clubs into NSW and Qld.

Given that there are 2 clubs each with separate grounds in those states and the fixture is already inequitable in terms of travel playing a home game for Collingwood v GC at Victoria Park (Brisbane) !! or Richmond v Giants at the other G (SCG ) it is worth seeing the impact on the expansion if clubs like Richmond and Collingwood play more often in NSW / QLD.

A third Queensland AFL team increases the amount of games that a marquee team like Collingwood plays in QLD anyway. If it happens, you'd have Collingwood up here three times a year to play the Lions, Suns and QLD3. That's very appealing for the QLD government as its an economy driver for us and we'd much rather host another sellout blockbuster game against the Pies than have a half full stadium watching a team like the Roos play.

Plus, Collingwood would be given more opportunity to service/grow their already large QLD fanbase and the players get to have a bit of an in-season break by going to a warmer climate and spending time at the beach in good weather during the winter months. So I'm certain everyone involved with Collingwood would be interested in that when it comes to scheduling an interstate away game and that's the kind of opportunity that's presented with a third QLD team entering the league.

There's obviously the benefit of creating two extra local derby games in Queensland each year and all the positives that come with that. So overall we'd be adding at least three extra big games in QLD each year if it happens. It would also mean less overall travel for the Queensland teams and that helps with the overarching goal of equalising the league. 13 games in Queensland (11 home, 2 'away' derbies) + 10 interstate away games feels like a good balance for the state that travels the second most behind the WA teams.

Plenty of positives if you're prioritising growth of the game in Queensland.

 

[crowman2]

Is this thread being real we currently have 8 non Victorian teams 2 more no Victorian teams means the afl commission cannot be dominated by the voting of Victorian teams

Isn’t tassie coming in so 9 and 10 vico teams

The afl commission runs the afl

Do the maths won’t happen

 

[1990crow]

Sunshine Coast makes the most sense to me as Team 20. Grows the game in a market that's developing rapidly.

Canberra deserves a team too though. That's where North Melbourne come in..

 

[Canberra Pear]

Sunshine Coast makes the most sense to me as Team 20. Grows the game in a market that's developing rapidly.

Canberra deserves a team too though. That's where North Melbourne come in..

I think the Sunshine Coast would be a good option for Team 21/22.

Team 20 would likely come in the next 5 to 10 years. Don't think the Sunshine Coast would be ready by that time. They need a stadium and a few games a year first.

 

[crowman2]

I think the Sunshine Coast would be a good option for Team 21/22.

Team 20 would likely come in the next 5 to 10 years. Don't think the Sunshine Coast would be ready by that time. They need a stadium and a few games a year first.

Pipe dream the balance needs 1 more Melbourne team

It will never be an equal or more non vic teams

If I was a vic team I wouldn’t want the balance to go in favour of non vic teams and then they control the voting on who serves on the commission

Makes no sense to allow that

 

[Freomaniac]

I think this makes a lot of sense. Brisbane is blessed by having the river - it allows a natural way to divide the city in two. Allowing a North Brisbane team to focus on everything north of the river feels like a naturally geographic focus. That half of the city projected to be somewhere between 1.3-1.4 million by 2040, which is comparable to Adelaide. And that’s not counting Sunshine Coast as a secondary market…

I understand the Lions already have a strong association with the southern suburbs, although their supporters are probably spread all across the city. You might just get them to focus their efforts on the southern suburbs post the introduction of North Brisbane.

I think that’s a really solid proposal for an upcoming expansion and imagine that AFL have considered something along these lines.

1.5 million in North Brisbane by 2040? Sounds good.

I mean could we have Tassie in the comp by 2028 then North Brisbane in the comp in 2029 or 2030?

I still prefer Canberra as the 20th side

 

[Purple Suit]

1.5 million in North Brisbane by 2040? Sounds good.

I mean could we have Tassie in the comp by 2028 then North Brisbane in the comp in 2029 or 2030?

I still prefer Canberra as the 20th side

And leave the WA market and a footy mad Perth city close to 3m people capped at 1 game a weekend. Add in sub par pathways and vic bias, sounds like a great way to lose returning customers over new ones.

 

[GC2015]

Dw watch the AFL do the same once the Perth Bears come, the WAFC is already terrified and deliberately only charging Freo and not West Coast money because fear of the Perth Bears.

It's worth pointing out that the NRL are planning on starting a 20th team in 2030 after introducing Perth + PNG in 2027 & 2028. The early favourites for the 20th NRL licence are Western Brisbane and Southern NZ. If they choose Western Brisbane, then I'm fairly sure the AFL's attention will turn back to Queensland because it'll be a 3 against 1 situation for the Lions. If it happens, I think there's a pretty good chance we'll see a second Brisbane team entering the AFL in 2031 when the current broadcasting rights deal ends. This just so happens to line up perfectly with the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, which means new facilities, stadia, sponsorship opportunities etc.

 

[Canberra Pear]

It's worth pointing out that the NRL are planning on starting a 20th team in 2030 after introducing Perth + PNG in 2027 & 2028. The early favourites for the 20th NRL licence are Western Brisbane and Southern NZ. If they choose Western Brisbane, then I'm fairly sure the AFL's attention will turn back to Queensland because it'll be a 3 against 1 situation for the Lions. If it happens, I think there's a pretty good chance we'll see a second Brisbane team entering the AFL in 2031 when the current broadcasting rights deal ends. This just so happens to line up perfectly with the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, which means new facilities, stadia, sponsorship opportunities etc.

Brisbane 2 may be on the horizon, but it's not happening any time in the next decade.

I sound like a broken record, but you don't essentially double capacity and then double the teams, too.

The new stadium will be a huge boon for the Lions, it will do great things for the AFL in Brisbane.

Adding a second team at the exact same time Brisbane can sell 25,000 extra season memberships will overstretch AFL support in Brisbane; leave the Lions with an emptier stadium; and start the second team with one arm tied behind their back.

You just don't do both at once. It doesn't make sense.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

Please tell us when and where this concept has ever worked. Everyone should realise by now that stadiums only really work well near CBDs. Waverley was never a good fit for anyone. The Adelaide clubs have done much better out of moving to the CBD than they ever did in the outer suburbs. Even in Townsville they've moved the rugby league stadium close to the CBD. Why go against all those lessons and stick a stadium in the outer suburbs again?

And who is paying for this stadium? Why would the Queensland government shell out for another 20k oval stadium after already putting billions into a 60k one and the same city?

For a new Northern Brisbane team, the redeveloped Showgrounds could provide a boutique stadium option. It ticks a few boxes:

1. Inner city location next to new train station.

2. Funding for upgrades already included as part of the Olympic package.

3. Venue is located in the inner-Northern suburbs, which helps cater for the targeted demographic.

A Northern Brisbane team could play QLD derbies, Collingwood, Carlton etc at Victoria Park, and then some of the smaller demand games at a 20k Showgrounds stadium. The AFL could schedule a lot of their bigger games at Vic Park towards the end of the season when the Showgrounds would be utilised for Ekka.

Would likely be a far better stadium arrangement than what the Giants have had to put up with since their inception.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

For a new Northern Brisbane team, the redeveloped Showgrounds could provide a boutique stadium option. It ticks a few boxes:

1. Inner city location next to new train station.

2. Funding for upgrades already included as part of the Olympic package.

3. Venue is located in the inner-Northern suburbs, which helps cater for the targeted demographic.

A Northern Brisbane team could play QLD derbies, Collingwood, Carlton etc at Victoria Park, and then some of the smaller demand games at a 20k Showgrounds stadium. The AFL could schedule a lot of their bigger games at Vic Park towards the end of the season when the Showgrounds would be utilised for Ekka.

Would likely be a far better stadium arrangement than what the Giants have had to put up with since their inception.

The current ground can't hold an AFL sized field, and I doubt the upgrade will fix that. It would be a good idea otherwise and enable a bid for Gather Round.

 

[GC2015]

Brisbane 2 may be on the horizon, but it's not happening any time in the next decade.

I sound like a broken record, but you don't essentially double capacity and then double the teams, too.

The new stadium will be a huge boon for the Lions, it will do great things for the AFL in Brisbane.

Adding a second team at the exact same time Brisbane can sell 25,000 extra season memberships will overstretch AFL support in Brisbane; leave the Lions with an emptier stadium; and start the second team with one arm tied behind their back.

You just don't do both at once. It doesn't make sense.

It's important to keep in mind that we're talking about a decision that will likely be made in 5 years from now when the broadcasting rights deal ends in 2031. For context, if you had told me in 2003 that the Gold Coast would be approved to enter the league 5 years later then I wouldn't have believed it and we're in a similar situation now to the one we were back in 2003 when the Lions went back-to-back. The flow on effects of Brisbane's triple premiership era really became obvious in the following 5 years when we saw a dramatic increase in junior participation numbers and Queenslanders being drafted into the league (2006 in particular).

We're already seeing big increases in participation numbers, crowds, memberships and Queenslanders getting drafted into the league and I think that's only going to keep growing over the next 5 years because we have two teams based in Queensland that should continue to qualify for the finals each year for the foreseeable future. However, I do think one of the biggest factors here is whether the NRL decides to triple down on the Brisbane market and grant them a third NRL licence in 2030 when they enter a 20th team into their competition. Weekly AFL games in the Brisbane market become crucial at that stage IMO.

 

[Cunnington Cartel]

The current ground can't hold an AFL sized field, and I doubt the upgrade will fix that. It would be a good idea otherwise and enable a bid for Gather Round.

That’s a shame. If that’s the case then how did it become the preferred option for the Lions temporary home ground during the proposed Gabba redevelopment?

Was it a case of the government announcing the Showgrounds and then later discovering that it wasn’t feasible?

 

[LeBronco]

It's worth pointing out that the NRL are planning on starting a 20th team in 2030 after introducing Perth + PNG in 2027 & 2028. The early favourites for the 20th NRL licence are Western Brisbane and Southern NZ. If they choose Western Brisbane, then I'm fairly sure the AFL's attention will turn back to Queensland because it'll be a 3 against 1 situation for the Lions. If it happens, I think there's a pretty good chance we'll see a second Brisbane team entering the AFL in 2031 when the current broadcasting rights deal ends. This just so happens to line up perfectly with the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, which means new facilities, stadia, sponsorship opportunities etc.

Does this mean taking academy zones away from the Lions and giving them to the new Brisbane team? I'm not sure the Lions would be happy with that I mean my club was unhappy about losing our Riverina zone.