Ablett out for 3!

[Bond.ShaneBond]

That's why I'm dubious about keeping Ablett...

Last year:

Ottens - remained on the injury list for 10(?) weeks but was always "just about right to play"
Chapman - Late withdrawal with hamstring tightness, misses 3 games with no clarification from Geelong each week.
Ablett - Missed 3(?) weeks with ankle injury despite early signs indicating he would miss 1 game max.

This year:

Ottens - What Hodges said.
Harley - Wasn't he meant to only miss 4-5??

Certainly has put a lot of doubt in my mind when it comes to Geelong and injuries.

Also, Bomber could put the betting agencies into a massive spin if he came out and said Ablett was going to be out for 4 weeks. Brownlow betting could be screwed even more.

Harley was meant to be good to go Round 1.

History says Geelong underestimate/bullshit about their injuries. Ablett is their most valuable asset and is their best chance for a flag. Taking all of this into account, logic suggests they will wait until he is 100%. Then they will give him another week to make sure. Then another. Then they will ease him in by playing him in the F50 with short stints on the ball. Only they will they dial him back up to full rotation.

 

[dswan]

I aggree they wont want him going to full gazza style running and lets face it he will loose 100k when he comes back. it makes a hell of a lot of sense trading gazza to a swan or a corey then trading to get ablett back in. You won't cop the 0 for possibly 3 weeks in the mean time racking up 110 points a week or so. Then you will profit 100k by getting him back in when he is back to 5th gear. I know lots of others have made this solid point im just backing you guys up

 

[dswan]

Jones will tag swan but swan will still get 100 plus he always does

 

[chopperduck]

except for that 70 odd he got in round 2 ?

 

[Kid A]

I aggree they wont want him going to full gazza style running and lets face it he will loose 100k when he comes back. it makes a hell of a lot of sense trading gazza to a swan or a corey then trading to get ablett back in. You won't cop the 0 for possibly 3 weeks in the mean time racking up 110 points a week or so. Then you will profit 100k by getting him back in when he is back to 5th gear. I know lots of others have made this solid point im just backing you guys up

if you're going to assume the worst (no emergency coverage, out longer than expected, dips in price greater than expected) about every injury then you'd almost always be trading out. using trades like water is going to come back to bite in the second half of the season.

 

[kangaroo19]

if you're going to assume the worst (no emergency coverage, out longer than expected, dips in price greater than expected) about every injury then you'd almost always be trading out. using trades like water is going to come back to bite in the second half of the season.

Slightly different situation to a normal injury:

1. Ablett is worth $510k, averaging 120.
2. Similar injury to Judd from 2007 - Judd dominated first 8 rounds, out for 2 weeks and struggled for the rest of the season (Avg 101 pre-injury, 66 post-injury)
3. Geelong has a history of underestimating injuries to their big name players (2008 = Chapman, Ottens, Ablett. 2009 = Harley, Ottens, Ablett again?)
4. A lot of premiums below $430k (many around $400k) makes it easy to get anybody and save cash.
5. Ablett may have limited TOG when he returns, or rested at some stage during the year so unlikely to continue scoring 120 each week.

That said, there's many negatives as well:

1. Why trade the best player in the game?
2. May only miss 2 weeks
3. Could get back to 120 average.
4. Use a trade to get someone who is not guaranteed to get 100+ average for remainder of the year.
5. If you trade him and he dominates, it might make it difficult to get him back in.

At the end of the day, there is no right answer. Nobody knows how bad the injury is, or how his output will be affected when he returns. Maybe it's a good chance for people who don't have good cash cows to use Ablett as a cash cow? eg. Ablett to Murphy nets $125k (20 point avg difference).

 

[jdwood]

For those who are trading Ablett (I am personally, 18 trades, 100k and in a decent position), who are you looking at?

These are the players who jump out at me:

Bartel (~485k) - at some point you are going to want him in your team. A pretty good time to bite the bullet whilst you can afford it and you're substituting the consistent captain choice which Ablett provides.

Corey (~425k) - not in the best scoring form, the loss of ablett may impact on this in someway. Someone I would have looked to bring in also but he has a pretty high BE and I might wait a bit on him.

Murphy (~385k) - this trade nets you 125k which is a straight upgrade somewhere else and he is clearly underpriced. By doing this, I could bring in Pav, SJ and Murphy in 3 straiught trades.

The smokie is Sewell who is ~415k and averaging 114...

 

[phealey]

Too many variables can go wrong here. I can make the following trades if I decide that Ablett is going to be out for more than 3.

Ablett to Corey and then Skipworth to Kornes. This allows me to have a complete midfield until Gablett comes back where I'll probably just upgrade Higgins assuming Gablett has a price drop(which seems more likely than not)

By the time I complete my Fwd/Back line I should have at least 7 injury trades left, and 1 more for the Ablett trade back.

Bringing in 2 premiums this week for Ablett is getting more appealing as the lockout draws closer though, as I have added 2 captain choices and don't have to cop a zero in the midfield, instead I'll be scoring another 150+ points that I would have missed.

It's slowly becoming a logical trade.

 

[wcrevival]

what u guys think of ablett -> coughlan then using the cash to go petrenko ->lockyer.

Shore up my backline (looking shaky) and using coughlan as a cashcow, and getting ablett back in once he has 1-2 games on the board. Im expecting him to drop some after his return. I'm just uncertain about finding the cash to get ablett back in again though.

 

[foley4brownlow]

what u guys think of ablett -> coughlan then using the cash to go petrenko ->lockyer.

Shore up my backline (looking shaky) and using coughlan as a cashcow, and getting ablett back in once he has 1-2 games on the board. Im expecting him to drop some after his return. I'm just uncertain about finding the cash to get ablett back in again though.

in the same situation there mate. who knows what ablett will do when he comes back he may get a few sub 100s and drop 50k or he may just continue to dominate and not drop at all. i think il just keep ablett and hope hes out for 2-3 and then comes back and dominates. i dont really wana have to worry about finding the money to bring him back in again.

 

[phealey]

He will almost certainly drop because his B/E is over 150 and I can't imagine him playing at his peak first game back. That means that he will see some drops in price until his B/E drops back to around 140. Chances are he'll drop off around 30-50k.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

just thinking about the ablett trade for those that have him.

If you are going to trade him.

If you assume you are going to upgrade a rookie to say Corey/Swan etc in 2 weeks. To do so means downgrading one rookie and upgrading another. (2 trades)

If you did Ablett -> corey and kept the cash. then in 2 weeks time you could still down grade a rookie and then have enough cash to uprgade a rookie to get ablett back

All in all using three trades. The loss of course is that you have used an extra trade but you get full value from a premium for 3 weeks.


The risk of not trading him are a little more dire. he misses 3-4 weeks and comes back not as good - meaning his price drops and he scores lower. Or worse he doesn't come back for 5/6 weeks. With the benefit really only being a saved trade

 

[AjsGuns]

what u guys think of ablett -> coughlan then using the cash to go petrenko ->lockyer.

Shore up my backline (looking shaky) and using coughlan as a cashcow, and getting ablett back in once he has 1-2 games on the board. Im expecting him to drop some after his return. I'm just uncertain about finding the cash to get ablett back in again though.

Been highly considering it as well frees up over 300k and u would assume cogs would peak at 350k. I could upgrade half my side with the cash i would obtain however there are alot of negatives as well, really depends on Cogs if he can AVG 85 then yes i would do it. Remember u will be playing Cogs in Abletts place for a while so u dont want to lose alot of points if he only avgs 65 odd then a 55ppg lose. High Risk High Reward, if ur in the top 500 i wouldnt do it but if ur outside the top 2k then i would probally take the punt.

 

[kangaroo19]

Thinking of going Ablett to Murphy this week, then next week do Robinson/Beams to Cockie/DeBoer and Picken to Corey. Could trade Rich as well, but would mean playing Beams instead. By trading out Robinson I could still be left with Rich on field, and Beams as 1st emergency which wouldn't be the worst position.

 

[anf06]

Personally, its out of Swan or Sewell for me..

Swan plays the saints this week,
Sewell Essendon.

For those of you trading... who are you bringing in?

 

[foley4brownlow]

Personally, its out of Swan or Sewell for me..

Swan plays the saints this week,
Sewell Essendon.

For those of you trading... who are you bringing in?

undecided if il trade yet but if i doing will be looking at corey/thompson/hayes/murphy/sewell/ will most likely be hayes or murphy from that list. both underpriced and both will average 100 and will make you 110k off the trade which allows you to upgrade other areas of your team.

 

[Virgil]

Personally, its out of Swan or Sewell for me..

Swan plays the saints this week,
Sewell Essendon.

For those of you trading... who are you bringing in?

^^ The player you're bringing in is going to be in your side for the next 16 rounds. Their next opponent is only really important if you're planning to upgrade to both some time soon and you're trying to work out price fluctuations.

FWIW, Swan is the better DT'er, but I think Sewell (and Hawthorn in general) should do very well this week.

 

[Benno_900]

He will almost certainly drop because his B/E is over 150 and I can't imagine him playing at his peak first game back. That means that he will see some drops in price until his B/E drops back to around 140. Chances are he'll drop off around 30-50k.

If he scores ~100, his 140 will drop out and his B/E will jump up to 170+.