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Ablett out for 3!
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Well he won't be having surgery, so my theory is that he'll have periodic rest matches to nurse him into the finals at maximum fitness. I'm not gonna put up with that.
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Oh ok, so from 150 to 125-130? lol. He wants the brownlow, don't forget!
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My theory is if you trade Ablett, you think his injury is serious and he won't come back to average 115-120 when he gets back. With this in mind, it makes the trade to Corey logical as he won't be playing second fiddle to Ablett and will get more "inside" midfield time, which will hopefully awaken the tackle monster which is Joel Corey.
Just thinking now, the trade has biblical connotations, God Jr to JC! How can you lose!
Just thinking now, the trade has biblical connotations, God Jr to JC! How can you lose!
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That is such a stupid argument and is disrespectful to Ablett. Going from his reactions on Brownlow night and Grand Final day last year I know which one he wants more. He is a team player and a ****ing champion. He wants a premiership, not a Brownlow.
For what it's worth, I am tipping that he won't be back until after the mid-year break.
Glad you posted this, I've been thinking the same thing. I was wondering where this whole concept started?
There have been many posters that have stated these exact same thoughts.
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Nice analysis Saint. I would like to pick at a couple of your assumptions:
You assume Ablett will average 115 (230 as captain). I agreee.
However, I think that Bartel/Swan will average 110 (220 as captain) where you suggest they'll only average 105.
I also think that in the three weeks subsequent to him returning, he will only average 100 (you estimated 110).
So with my alterations the analysis would look like:
-----------------------------------------------
SCENARIO 1 (KEEP ABLETT)
Rounds 7,8,9
Bench Cover = 50pnts x 3matches = 150pnts
Player "X" as Captain = 210pnts x 3 matches = 630pnts
150pnts + 630pnts = 780pnts
Rounds 10,11,12
Ablett Captain = 200pnts x 3 matches = 600pnts
Rounds 13-22 (10 rounds)
Ablett Captain = 230pnts x 10matches = 2300pnts
TOTAL: 780pnts + 600pnts + 2300pnts
TOTAL: 3680pnts
SCENARIO 2 (TRADE ABLETT TO BARTEL/SWAN)
Rounds 7,8,9
Bartel/Swan Captain = 220pnts x 3 matches = 660pnts
Player "X" = 105pnts x 3 matches = 315pnts
660pnts + 315pnts = 975pnts
Rounds 10,11,12
Bartel/Swan Captain = 220pnts x 3 matches = 660pnts
Rounds 13-22 (10 rounds)
Bartel/Swan Captain = 220pnts x 10 matches = 2200pnts
TOTAL: 975pnts + 660pnts + 2200pnts
TOTAL: 3835pts
SCENARIO 3 (TRADE ABLETT TO BARTEL/SWAN, TRADE ABLETT BACK IN AFTER ROUND 12)
Rounds 7,8,9
Bartel/Swan Captain = 220pnts x 3 matches = 660pnts
Player "X" = 105pnts x 3 matches = 315pnts
660pnts + 315pnts = 975pnts
Rounds 10,11,12
Bartel/Swan Captain = 220pnts x 3 matches = 660pnts
Rounds 13-22 (10 rounds)
Ablett Captain = 230pnts x 10matches = 2300pnts
TOTAL: 975pnts + 660pnts + 2300pnts
TOTAL: 3935pts
---
The above analysis assumes:
a) Ablett will only miss 3 weeks
b) Upon return, he will average 100 for his first 3 weeks and then 115 for the rest of the season.
Both of those assumptions are contentious.
coast2coast
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I'm only taking him at face value, but Thompson seemed pretty adamant yesterday that Ablett would only miss two weeks.
Have a look at the press conference on bigpond:
http://bigpondvideo.com/AFL/126163
Have a look at the press conference on bigpond:
http://bigpondvideo.com/AFL/126163
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Fantastic analysis from St.KFC and Beau there but I thought this article was quite interesting; stating that the 2-3 break from football may actually result in him coming back refreshed and playing better than ever. All the analysis is good, but in the end it's all assumptions and should really only be used as a general guideline. No-one knows how many weeks he's going to be out for, it could easily end up only being two weeks.
Gazza injury 'blessing in disguise'
Edit: thanks for that link mate, there you go, likely only 2 weeks now.
Gazza injury 'blessing in disguise'
Edit: thanks for that link mate, there you go, likely only 2 weeks now.
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If it's 2 weeks then I wouldn't be trading, but if there is any chance that it starts heading in to 3-4 week territory then obviously there is some merit in trading to swan/bartel and then bring him back.
The main problem with the latter is that it's all just conjecture. We're talking about a guy that seems to score 120 on a bad day,in his first week back he could well score his B/E or go close, leaving the need to find 480K+ to get him back.
The main problem with the latter is that it's all just conjecture. We're talking about a guy that seems to score 120 on a bad day,in his first week back he could well score his B/E or go close, leaving the need to find 480K+ to get him back.
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Fantastic analysis from St.KFC and Beau there but I thought this article was quite interesting; stating that the 2-3 break from football may actually result in him coming back refreshed and playing better than ever. All the analysis is good, but in the end it's all assumptions and should really only be used as a general guideline. No-one knows how many weeks he's going to be out for, it could easily end up only being two weeks.
Gazza injury 'blessing in disguise'
Edit: thanks for that link mate, there you go, likely only 2 weeks now.
Do you believe him though? Wasnt Ottens only going to miss 2-4 weeks? Geelong (like most teams) dont like to give to much away when it comes to injuries. Im fully expecting Gaz to miss 4 weeks.
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That's why I'm dubious about keeping Ablett...
Last year:
Ottens - remained on the injury list for 10(?) weeks but was always "just about right to play"
Chapman - Late withdrawal with hamstring tightness, misses 3 games with no clarification from Geelong each week.
Ablett - Missed 3(?) weeks with ankle injury despite early signs indicating he would miss 1 game max.
This year:
Ottens - What Hodges said.
Harley - Wasn't he meant to only miss 4-5??
Certainly has put a lot of doubt in my mind when it comes to Geelong and injuries.
Also, Bomber could put the betting agencies into a massive spin if he came out and said Ablett was going to be out for 4 weeks. Brownlow betting could be screwed even more.
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Before Ablett had scans, Bomber said he'd only play him if he was 100% right to play and wouldn't take any risks on him. That worries me a bit as they could keep delaying his return.
I'm still not sure whether to keep him or now, I guess team selection this week will make make my decision easier. Definitely biggest of the season so far (need one or even both Zaharakis/Robinson to play to avoid zeroes). Here's the link btw ...
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,25422344-19742,00.html
I'm still not sure whether to keep him or now, I guess team selection this week will make make my decision easier. Definitely biggest of the season so far (need one or even both Zaharakis/Robinson to play to avoid zeroes). Here's the link btw ...
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/sport/afl/story/0,26576,25422344-19742,00.html
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I'm not so sure it will be longer than 2 weeks despite the Geelong policy of underselling the injury time. I get the feeling he'll be right to play by round 8 but they'll rest him and he'll play round 9. He was carrying this injury against Adelaide and scored 155 and then 140 the next week. Seems like they're just giving him a rest and it is legitmately a 2 week-er.
He's going on my bench this week, and I'll probably just upgrade the injuried Skipworth a little quicker than I had hoped, probably bring in Corey.
He's going on my bench this week, and I'll probably just upgrade the injuried Skipworth a little quicker than I had hoped, probably bring in Corey.
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Just like to address my reasoning behind these.
Firstly, this is what I feel will happen by the end of the season:
Bartel 22gms at avg of 114 = 2508pnts
Swan 22gms at avg of 105 = 2310pnts
After 6 games, we have these values
Bartel avg 121.8 = 730.8pnts
Swan avg 115.6 = 693.6pnts
To get respective season avgs of 114 and 105, the players will have to score these amounts of points over the next 16 rounds
Bartel: 2508 - 730.8 = 1777.2pnts
Swan: 2310 - 693.6 = 1616.4pnts
Divide both by 16 and you have what I think each player will average from now until the end of the season
Bartel: 1777.2/16 = 111
Swan: 1616.4/16 = 101
105 points is merely a tradeoff. You could do a seperate scenario factoring in these expected points differentials (do one scenario for Bartel, Swan, Corey etc etc etc) and the affect of the extra cash gained by Swan or another cheaper option, but if people really want to go into that much detail (which you may want to if you have Ablett, personally I don't) then they can do the work for themselves.
If Swan truly was to average 110pnts over the rest of the season as you predict, it would give him a season average of:
Rounds 1-6 + Expected avg from Rounds 7-22 x 16 rounds
22
693.6 + 110 x 16
22
Gives a season average of 111.5ppg
Definitely not out of Swan's reach, but I guess that it's just something that I don't think will happen based on past years etc. I have Swan myself and wouldn't be surprised to see him taper off throughout the year.
Swan is getting tagged less this year with Davis and Pendlebury attracting more attention. Whilst Swan has shown he can score well with a tag anyway there's no doubt his scores will improve when the opposition aren't too concerned about him. So I wouldn't be surprised for him to average around the 108-110 mark for the year.
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matt73
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The mid season split round is Round 12 which leads me to believe he will come back before the break. (and the Cats play in the second week of that split round)
If the split round was 10 or 11 he would definitely take the extra week off you would think.
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Swan is playing the new DT killers of the world - St.Kilda this week, so I am thinking that he could be a potential target for around 2-3 weeks (which should be when Otten peaks at around 280-300k). This is mainly hope though.
If this is a wear and tear injury, Ablett could be rested a few times through out the year I think. Mid-season break is still 5 rounds away and Geelong play Essendon in Rd 10 then West Coast in Rd 11. His BE could mean very little against these sides.
If this is a wear and tear injury, Ablett could be rested a few times through out the year I think. Mid-season break is still 5 rounds away and Geelong play Essendon in Rd 10 then West Coast in Rd 11. His BE could mean very little against these sides.
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I got owned! That's some good thinking right there. Well done.
If you have a look at Geelongs draw they have Sydney, Kangas, Bulldogs and after that it gets interesting..Essendon, West Coast, Fremantle ..... Cant see them rushing him back for those games
Gary will play when he's ready, he will be as desperate as ever to get back out there, i reckon he will miss only 2-3.
Fantastic post StKFC.
Pity logic like that couldnt help you overcome me last week!
Nah kidding, top stuff.
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