Adam's 2016 Brownlow Count

[Mningasimisonda]

Doing what I have for a few years now in my own time in constructing my own Brownlow count, giving 3-2-1 votes for each game, but now posting on BF.

Have a decent rate of success:
Correctly picked Dane swan in 2011
Correctly picked Gary Ablett Jr in 2013
Correctly picked Nat Fyfe in 2015

Please note that I cannot watch every game every week and have to rely on stat sheets and supercoach scores and my opinion will indeed differ to yours. Doing this for my enjoyment and for your observation, but you can take what you want out of it.

Good summary!

Stats and Supercoach scores will have overrated Dangerfield because his ball use was down in quite a few games, especially mid season. So many of the votes for him are optimistic.

IMO, he is unlikely to poll in rounds 6, 7 or 10 and rounds 3, 5, 19, 20 and 22 are at the optimistic end of the spectrum. That takes him down to about 26 max, and probably more like a 23 vote season.

At the same time, Selwood's influence and ball use was far greater than his stats show, so he is likely to poll more than predicted. While not part of the Brownlow count, the qualifying final was a good example. Danger had better stats but Selwood was clearly BOG and Danger would be unlikely to get a vote.

 

[daffo]

Danger is a shoe in this year. Should poll 30+

 

[frenchconnection]

Danger is a shoe in this year. Should poll 30+

The favourite does not always win. Also think Selwood may take a few votes off him. Not too sure who I think will win but don't be surprised if a Bulldog player doesn't pull it off or maybe even somebody from GWS. Not up to speed with all their players names!!