Adelaide: future

[Bentleigh]

Afternoon.

What do you see the Crows future over the next 1/2 dozen years in order to push for success?

Do you see a couple bottem 4 or even 2 finshes to see you rebuild with youth, ie Hawks/Richmond

Or do you reckon the club will be able to stay midtable like an Essendon. If this 2nd option do you see yourself as a top 4 side in the future?

cheers

 

[arrowman]

Personally - I don't think we're a bottom four side and I wish I could get my hands on some of the money some Victorians are putting on us for the spoon

On that subject - Almost any side can be bottom four if they have a truly tragic year for injuries etc - you only have to look at the history of the ladder to see that. I don't think every bottom four side is there because "they're crap" and it's interesting to see that every year at least one bottom four side makes the finals the next year. I don't think that happens on the strength of one draft pick.

So, that said, of course it is possible for Adelaide to finish bottom four, but only if things go completely pearshaped.

Also, I think high draft picks are over-rated. I don't think the only good young players in the country are in the top four draft picks, and I don't think it is necessary to finish bottom four to rebuild. Clever recruiting and good player development count for an awful lot more than top 4 draft picks - and that's something that neither of our clubs have been brilliant at in the past few years, hopefully we will fix that.

Realistically - we're 50-50 for the finals in 2005 but that doesn't matter. I think we should hope/expect finals in 2007 and beyond. In the meantime (2005-2006), 9-12 may be where we sit and I don't think that reduces our chances of rebuilding.

 

[pext]

The Adelaide Club is too proud to roll over and aim for bottom four as it seems (don't take this to heart Hawks fans) the Hawks/Bulldogs are doing/have done.

That said, the crows are too good to finish bottom four (despite what Mike "f##kwit" Sheehan says). Roo, Macca, Goodwin, Edwards, Burton, etc just won't allow it.

In the long to medium turn it is anyones guess. At the moment St Kilda look like they have the best young talent in the land but that doesn't equal success. No-one can predict what will happen medium to long term. Rate the Swans list and tell me whether they are top eight material. On talent where should Freo finish?

Many questions will determine where teams go from here. Will Reilly turn out better than Dal Santo? I don't know. Will Schuback become another Johncock? I don't know. Will Kositchke (sp.) end up being a dud? No-one knows. Your guess is as good as ours!

Regards,

Zen Master Pext!

 

[Bentleigh]

Also, I think high draft picks are over-rated. I don't think the only good young players in the country are in the top four draft picks, and I don't think it is necessary to finish bottom four to rebuild.

Of course you can get good players from 5 onwards and you can rebuild a club. However I would think it is better to take the bottem 4 way for long term success.

You get some fairly solid players:

Deledio
Roughead
Griffin
Tambling

Cooney
Walker
Sylvia
Ray

Goodard
Wells
Brennan
Walsh

Hodge
Ball
Judd
Polak

 

[Blue Red and Gold]

Of course you can get good players from 5 onwards and you can rebuild a club. However I would think it is better to take the bottem 4 way for long term success.

You get some fairly solid players:

Deledio
Roughead
Griffin
Tambling

Cooney
Walker
Sylvia
Ray

Goodard
Wells
Brennan
Walsh

Hodge
Ball
Judd
Polak

I understand what your saying but you need to be careful as I dont think these players have proven to be solid afl players Deledio Roughead Griffin Tambling Walker Sylvia and Ray.

They all have promise, some have shown glimpses already some havent. By your reckoning Laurance Angwin is a solid AFL player.
Obviously you would prefer to have early draft picks but it is by far not the easy way out of a hole.

 

[arrowman]

Of course you can get good players from 5 onwards and you can rebuild a club. However I would think it is better to take the bottem 4 way for long term success.

Well you would, wouldn't you

You get some fairly solid players:

Deledio
Roughead
Griffin
Tambling
...

Johncock. Reilly. Hird

Meesen (best yong ruckman in the draft, according to some).
Van Berlo.

I grant you Deledio and Tambling are good pickups but maybe in 3-4 years we should see how they compare with Meesen and van Berlo (and even Gibson (#28) and Chris Knights (#56)). Am I predicting that Knights will be > Deledio? No. But on the other hand there's a 50-50 chance Knights will be a 150 gamer for our club.

Seriously, how much difference do one or two players make in terms of "long term success"? Look at it this way:

You finish bottom four, three years in a row, and you get a priority pick in one of those years. That gives you 1-2 of the top 4 draft picks, 4 players over three years. 2 of those players turn out to be guns, maybe three.

Three years at the bottom of the ladder, your morale shot, your sponsors scared, your supporters demoralised - and you get 2-3 players out of it, and those players may or may not be signficiantly better than the ones that other clubs took in the 5-10 range.

And that's a worst (or best, depending on which way you look at it) case scenario. More likely you'll finish bottom 4 in 2 out of 3 years (still a ******** of a place to be as a club) and you'll get 2, maybe 3 top 4 picks, and maybe 1-2 long term gun players.

Finishing bottom 4 is over-rated

 

[Markthirtytwo]

Finishing bottom 4 is over-rated

I agree arrowman just look at Lloyd and Hird.

Very late draft picks. Granted you must have a bit of luck in getting such talent late, but no one picked them earlier so who where the top 3 picks in thier draft.

 

[Bentleigh]

Cannot agree high picks are overrated.

I understand what your saying but you need to be careful as I dont think these players have proven to be solid afl players Deledio Roughead Griffin Tambling Walker Sylvia and Ray.

They all have promise, some have shown glimpses already some havent. By your reckoning Laurance Angwin is a solid AFL player.
Obviously you would prefer to have early draft picks but it is by far not the easy way out of a hole.

Of course.

My point wasnt that Goddard, Deledio, Cooney, Ray types have made it, simply that from what they have shown at AFL level and potential wise they do have a good shout at being 200 game players.

For clubs in a hole, Richmond/Hawthorn and in the past Saint Kilda 'good' picks are a good start to start climbing the rungs.

I agree arrowman just look at Lloyd and Hird.

Very late draft picks. Granted you must have a bit of luck in getting such talent late, but no one picked them earlier so who where the top 3 picks in thier draft.

I disagree mate.

Grant and Hird situation are rare, but in this day and age its even more uncommen for a 'very good player' to be looked over.

There is just so much people watching and rating the young types.

 

[Blue Red and Gold]

I disagree mate.

Grant and Hird situation are rare, but in this day and age its even more uncommen for a 'very good player' to be looked over.

There is just so much people watching and rating the young types.

Johncock, while obviously not being in the class of players such as Hird and lloyd but he is a very good player and capable of playing 200 games+ for the AFC. He was picked up in the 70s, it can happen, obviously your strike rate is not going to be as good but it is possible to rebuild whilst remaining competitive and outside the bottom 4.
Essendon are examples of that, they have continually been competitive and are threats for the flag more years than not.

You can go about it both ways but for me I would rather rebuild whilst trying to play competitive football.

 

[Markthirtytwo]

I disagree mate.

Grant and Hird situation are rare, but in this day and age its even more uncommen for a 'very good player' to be looked over.

There is just so much people watching and rating the young types.

Well just look at a few years ago, eg Dean Headland, Josh Fraser.
Both #1 but not setting the world on fire.

 

[Blue Red and Gold]

Well just look at a few years ago, eg Dean Headland, Josh Fraser.
Both #1 but not setting the world on fire.

His brother Des has been a bit of a let down too

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

Well just look at a few years ago, eg Dean Headland, Josh Fraser.
Both #1 but not setting the world on fire.

I have to agree with Bentleigh on one aspect here. AFL drafting has become MUCH more sophisticated in recent years. Perhaps Lloyd and Hird etc were drafted low 7-10 yrs ago but the chances of such bargains happening now are much lower.

Lets look at the current top 10 for the Brownlow (as per Centrbet today) to look at the correlation between being a standout youngster and also being at the top of the tree in the AFL right now

In order from 1-10

JUDD, Chris (WCE) Standout youngster.. Went at 3 - many thought would have been No 1 Draft Pick if not for shoulder injuries

RIEWOLDT, Nick (STK) Standout youngster went N1DP

McLEOD, Andrew (ADEL) Standout youngster - many considered would have been N1DP if not for trade with Crows

CORNES, Chad (PORT) Not sure about Chad as a youngster

COUSINS, Ben (WCE) Standout youngster - both Cats and Eagles were fighting him for him under father-son rule

HIRD, James (ESS) Dont know the details with Hird but was drafted many years ago

LAPPIN, Nigel (BRIS) Dont know the details with Lappin but was drafted many years ago

RICCIUTO, Mark (ADEL) Standout youngster when Crows picked him up - I remember Kerls going to watch him kick 9-10 goals in the Riverland Seniors GF and talk back then of him being one of the best youngsters (if not THE best ) in the land

TREDREA, Warren (PORT) Standout youngster

WELLS, Daniel (KANG) Standout youngster went at 2 in draft

Basically of the players I know of the above 10 (ie 7 of them) - all of them were standout youngsters that were top 5 draft pick equivalents. This is compelling evidence as to the value in high draft picks. Give it a few yrs and its very likely the Cooneys, Delidios etc will also be up there. (Perhaps the ones above I am unaware of Lappin, Hird and Cornes are the exception? I am not sure)

 

[Munga]

I'm tipping a good year for the crows. Here's how my ladder came out:

Team Pl W L PF PA Pts Perc
St Kilda 22 18 4 2336 1844 72 126.6
West Coast 22 18 4 2266 1914 72 118.3
Port Adel 22 17 5 2342 1838 68 127.4
Bris Lions 22 17 5 2286 1894 68 120.6
Melbourne 22 15 7 2190 1990 60 110.0
Geelong 22 15 7 2122 2058 60 103.1
Sydney 22 12 10 2126 2054 48 103.5
Adelaide 22 12 10 2096 2084 48 100.5

Essendon 22 10 12 2044 2136 40 95.6
Fremantle 22 9 13 2014 2166 36 92.9
Collingwood 22 9 13 2008 2172 36 92.4
Kangaroos 22 6 16 1984 2196 24 90.3
Richmond 22 5 17 1936 2244 20 86.2
Carlton 22 5 17 1922 2258 20 85.1
Hawthorn 22 4 18 1886 2294 16 82.2
W Bulldogs 22 4 18 1882 2298 16 81.8

They made it quite comfortably by 2 wins. Not that it means anything though .

 

[Cap]

my only real gripe there would be i put $10 on Fremantle to win the flag

 

[jo172]

I'm tipping a good year for the crows. Here's how my ladder came out:

Team Pl W L PF PA Pts Perc
St Kilda 22 18 4 2336 1844 72 126.6
West Coast 22 18 4 2266 1914 72 118.3
Port Adel 22 17 5 2342 1838 68 127.4
Bris Lions 22 17 5 2286 1894 68 120.6
Melbourne 22 15 7 2190 1990 60 110.0
Geelong 22 15 7 2122 2058 60 103.1
Sydney 22 12 10 2126 2054 48 103.5
Adelaide 22 12 10 2096 2084 48 100.5

Essendon 22 10 12 2044 2136 40 95.6
Fremantle 22 9 13 2014 2166 36 92.9
Collingwood 22 9 13 2008 2172 36 92.4
Kangaroos 22 6 16 1984 2196 24 90.3
Richmond 22 5 17 1936 2244 20 86.2
Carlton 22 5 17 1922 2258 20 85.1
Hawthorn 22 4 18 1886 2294 16 82.2
W Bulldogs 22 4 18 1882 2298 16 81.8

They made it quite comfortably by 2 wins. Not that it means anything though .

Ah, the old 12 wins 10 losses prediction.

In reality the Crows could win anything from 5-6 min to 12-13 max.

And to all of those using Johncock as an example about late drafting how bout other quality players such as Balraj Singh and Dean Howard

 

[jmorg1]

Yeah come on let's not kid ourselves. Just because we haven't sucked badly enough to get any priority picks (and also the fact that in the past we seemed hellbent on trading away our good to decent picks) doesn't mean they are 'overrated'. A lot of the best players in the league have been the product of priority picks.

 

[arrowman]

Well just look at a few years ago, eg Dean Headland, Josh Fraser.
Both #1 but not setting the world on fire.

Exhibit C: Travis Johnstone.

 

[Bentleigh]

Exhibit C: Travis Johnstone.

Wasnt he taken 8/9 years ago?

Like I said it was alot differnt then. These days players are judged and rated over and over.

Johnstone I beleive was drated as a 16 year old just due to his amazing skill for such a young kid.

 

[arrowman]

...And to all of those using Johncock as an example about late drafting how bout other quality players such as Balraj Singh and Dean Howard

Hey, sure - the odds of getting a gun with pick 1-4 are higher than the odds of getting a gun with pick #35 or whatever. On the other hand, how much is pick #1 worth than, say, pick #8?

I'm not saying pick #35 = pick #1. I am saying that pick #1 is over-rated in terms of its value in rebuilding a team. Look at the situation I described above - finish bottom of the ladder 3 years in a row, and what do you get compared to a team than finishes, say, 9-12? It takes more than 2-3 young guns to build a premiership team.

 

[arrowman]

Yeah come on let's not kid ourselves. Just because we haven't sucked badly enough to get any priority picks (and also the fact that in the past we seemed hellbent on trading away our good to decent picks) doesn't mean they are 'overrated'. A lot of the best players in the league have been the product of priority picks.

And some of the best players in the league came from picks 5-10, too.

As I said above - all I'm saying is, the value of top 4 draft picks in rebuilding a team is over-rated, and I do not feel prepared to accept a finish at the bottom with 3 wins next year because it will bring some sort of benefit to the club.

 

[jo172]

Hey, sure - the odds of getting a gun with pick 1-4 are higher than the odds of getting a gun with pick #35 or whatever. On the other hand, how much is pick #1 worth than, say, pick #8?

I'm not saying pick #35 = pick #1. I am saying that pick #1 is over-rated in terms of its value in rebuilding a team. Look at the situation I described above - finish bottom of the ladder 3 years in a row, and what do you get compared to a team than finishes, say, 9-12? It takes more than 2-3 young guns to build a premiership team.

IMHO a number 1 draft pick would be detrimental to the rebuilding of our team, if we wanted midfielders look at exhibits Johnstone, Headland and Hodge. These players expect the world to be handed to them and they just don't get it. However if you pick up a number 35 he will work hard because he knows the club will delist him if he is not immediatley up to scratch. However a number 1 pick will know the club will not waste a #1 pick and delist him so they will stick with him regardless of a few lean years such as Johnstone and Hodge. Take Angwin for example, behaved how ever he behaved he had the confidence Adelaide would not wast a 1st rounder and lose him, we probably wouldn't of if he didn't choose to return home on his own free will maybe we would of delisted him after the whole drug saga but ...

Also using pick 1 on KP is a risky business, for every Riedwolt there is a Fraser, it is hard to tell if they are just good because their bigger than the other players in their age or if their genuinely good. IMHO 2nd/3rd round pick are just as valuable because these players typically fight for their places on the list.

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

And some of the best players in the league came from picks 5-10, too.

.

Not as many as 1-5 though. Look at my Brownlow analysis

 

[Bentleigh]

IMHO a number 1 draft pick would be detrimental to the rebuilding of our team, if we wanted midfielders look at exhibits Johnstone, Headland and Hodge. These players expect the world to be handed to them and they just don't get it.

Dunno mate. You get, Wells, Judd, Ball, Cooney types. Outstanding (potentially or currently players) with high picks.

You only have to listen to the Crows drafting bloke which talked about how much he would have loved Ryan Griffin. Messen looks a potential gun (would have loved him at Punt Road but happy enough with Pattison) but the Crows would have loved a slightly higher pick to get a bloke they rated far higher in Ryan.

Usually they have alot of expectation but in Richmonds case im sure Tambling will be more than enough talent to take presure off Deledio.

 

[macca23]

Dunno mate. You get, Wells, Judd, Ball, Cooney types. Outstanding (potentially or currently players) with high picks.

You only have to listen to the Crows drafting bloke which talked about how much he would have loved Ryan Griffin. Messen looks a potential gun (would have loved him at Punt Road but happy enough with Pattison) but the Crows would have loved a slightly higher pick to get a bloke they rated far higher in Ryan.

Usually they have alot of expectation but in Richmonds case im sure Tambling will be more than enough talent to take presure off Deledio.

Personally I think it's impossible to argue with your logic.

Common sense says that all things being equal the best draftees these days should come from the top picks, leaving out the human element.

However it's not just Adelaide's way to play for picks as it has a huge markey to try and satisfy which Port Adelaide wpuld dearly love to snaffle.

So I guess we'll just battle our way along doing our best.

 

[No 1 Draft Pick]

Also using pick 1 on KP is a risky business, for every Riedwolt there is a Fraser, it is hard to tell if they are just good because their bigger than the other players in their age or if their genuinely good. IMHO 2nd/3rd round pick are just as valuable because these players typically fight for their places on the list.

On the other hand.....how would you like Riewoldt at CHF for the Crows? Or Cooney or Ball in the middle? Or Judd on the wing.......