eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Adelaide: Had a 95 point win against the hapless Gold Coast to get a much needed percentage booster, kicking 12 goals to 2 in the first half before easing up due to the 6 day break for this week. Matt Crouch was excellent with 36 disposals and 7 clearances whilst Eddie Betts kicked 6 goals with his 20 touches and Josh Jenkins 4.
Essendon: The Dons stole Victory from the jaws of defeat against North Melbourne, with Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti winning the game with his 4th goal when there was 30 seconds left whilst Zach Merrett stepped into captaincy well, collecting the ball 34 times and having 6 clearances, Dylan Clarke also a feature by keeping Ben Cunnington to 15 touches and 2 clearances.
Head to Head (last 5)
Adelaide 4-1 Essendon
Form Guide
Adelaide: 3W 2L
Essendon: 4W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Adelaide: $1.45
Essendon: $2.62
Line: 5.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Adelaide vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Darcy Fogarty - Taylor Walker - Eddie Betts
HB: Martin Gleeson - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Mason Redman
HF: Lachlan Murphy - Josh Jenkins - Tyson Stengle
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: Rory Atkins - Brad Crouch - Paul Seedsman
HF: Jake Stringer - Mitchell Brown - Matt Guelfi
HB: Jake Kelly - Alex Keath - Brodie Smith
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Luke Brown - Daniel Talia - Kyle Hartigan
R: Zach Clarke - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Riley O'Brien - Matthew Crouch - Rory Sloane
I: Darcy Parish - Conor McKenna - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Wayne Milera - Riley Knight - Rory Laird - Hugh Greenwood
Essendon in: Dyson Heppell, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher; Out: Orazio Fantasia (inj), Michael Hurley (inj)
Adelaide in: Darcy Fogarty; Out: David Mackay
Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. Adelaide's defence is one of their biggest strengths, conceding a goal 19.5% of the time it enters defensive 50, 4th overall in the AFL. Shaun McKernan will finally break one of the oddest stats I've seen in the AFL, this will be the first time he plays either of the clubs he's played for, and will be going head-to-head with great mate Daniel Talia, one of the best lock down defenders of the modern era. Mitchell Brown and Jake Stringer are likely to have Alex Keath and Jake Kelly for company respectively, whilst dangerous Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti probably gets Luke Brown for company.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon are 5th for overall clearance differential and 10th for contested possession differential, Adelaide ranking in 8th and 5th in these stats respectively. Essendon currently have five players in their side who average 3 or more clearances a game in Dylan Shiel, Zachary Merrett, Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish and Dylan Clarke, all bar Clarke averaging 8 or more contested possessions a game as well, whilst Adelaide have Rory Sloane, Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch, Riley O'Brien and Hugh Greenwood all averaging 3 or more clearances, the same 5 averaging 8 or more contested possessions as well, which indicates it will be a tight race in the middle, so the midfield battle may well come down to the outside run of the likes of Andrew McGrath, David Zaharakis and Matthew Guelfi against that of Rory Atkins, Paul Seedsman and Riley Knight. Rucks wise, O'Brien should be able to outpoint Zach Clarke but seems to be slowing down somewhat late in the season which advantages the Bombers.
Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence
Adelaide kick a goal 22.6% of the time it enters forward 50, ranking them 6th in the AFL. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. Adelaide's forward line has been below par this year, only Eddie Betts on track for 40+ goals this season and Adam Saad looks likely to wear him like a glove, the star hasn't kicked a goal the last two times he's played Essendon after a few years of complete domination over the men in red and black. Taylor Walker is the probable match up for Cale Hooker whilst Brandon Zerk-Thatcher seems likely to replace Michael Hurley for his debut to play on Josh Jenkins, impressive young forwards Lachlan Murphy and Tyson Stengle likely to get attention from Mason Redman and Martin Gleeson respectively.
X-Factor Player
Tyson Stengle finally got his chance at AFL level against Gold Coast and lit it up with 3 goals against an admittedly weak side but should be playing consistently for Adelaide from here.
Key stat
Adelaide: Clearances. Adelaide usually win when they get on top in the middle and with quality like Brad and Matt Crouch, as well as Rory Sloane, you can understand why.
Essendon: Inside 50 differential. Essendon can really tighten the screws by denying Adelaide ball in there.
Tip
Dunno why but I feel like we'll win. Dons by 5
Adelaide: Had a 95 point win against the hapless Gold Coast to get a much needed percentage booster, kicking 12 goals to 2 in the first half before easing up due to the 6 day break for this week. Matt Crouch was excellent with 36 disposals and 7 clearances whilst Eddie Betts kicked 6 goals with his 20 touches and Josh Jenkins 4.
Essendon: The Dons stole Victory from the jaws of defeat against North Melbourne, with Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti winning the game with his 4th goal when there was 30 seconds left whilst Zach Merrett stepped into captaincy well, collecting the ball 34 times and having 6 clearances, Dylan Clarke also a feature by keeping Ben Cunnington to 15 touches and 2 clearances.
Head to Head (last 5)
Adelaide 4-1 Essendon
Form Guide
Adelaide: 3W 2L
Essendon: 4W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Adelaide: $1.45
Essendon: $2.62
Line: 5.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Adelaide vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Darcy Fogarty - Taylor Walker - Eddie Betts
HB: Martin Gleeson - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Mason Redman
HF: Lachlan Murphy - Josh Jenkins - Tyson Stengle
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: Rory Atkins - Brad Crouch - Paul Seedsman
HF: Jake Stringer - Mitchell Brown - Matt Guelfi
HB: Jake Kelly - Alex Keath - Brodie Smith
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Jayden Laverde
B: Luke Brown - Daniel Talia - Kyle Hartigan
R: Zach Clarke - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Riley O'Brien - Matthew Crouch - Rory Sloane
I: Darcy Parish - Conor McKenna - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Wayne Milera - Riley Knight - Rory Laird - Hugh Greenwood
Essendon in: Dyson Heppell, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher; Out: Orazio Fantasia (inj), Michael Hurley (inj)
Adelaide in: Darcy Fogarty; Out: David Mackay
Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. Adelaide's defence is one of their biggest strengths, conceding a goal 19.5% of the time it enters defensive 50, 4th overall in the AFL. Shaun McKernan will finally break one of the oddest stats I've seen in the AFL, this will be the first time he plays either of the clubs he's played for, and will be going head-to-head with great mate Daniel Talia, one of the best lock down defenders of the modern era. Mitchell Brown and Jake Stringer are likely to have Alex Keath and Jake Kelly for company respectively, whilst dangerous Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti probably gets Luke Brown for company.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon are 5th for overall clearance differential and 10th for contested possession differential, Adelaide ranking in 8th and 5th in these stats respectively. Essendon currently have five players in their side who average 3 or more clearances a game in Dylan Shiel, Zachary Merrett, Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish and Dylan Clarke, all bar Clarke averaging 8 or more contested possessions a game as well, whilst Adelaide have Rory Sloane, Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch, Riley O'Brien and Hugh Greenwood all averaging 3 or more clearances, the same 5 averaging 8 or more contested possessions as well, which indicates it will be a tight race in the middle, so the midfield battle may well come down to the outside run of the likes of Andrew McGrath, David Zaharakis and Matthew Guelfi against that of Rory Atkins, Paul Seedsman and Riley Knight. Rucks wise, O'Brien should be able to outpoint Zach Clarke but seems to be slowing down somewhat late in the season which advantages the Bombers.
Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence
Adelaide kick a goal 22.6% of the time it enters forward 50, ranking them 6th in the AFL. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. Adelaide's forward line has been below par this year, only Eddie Betts on track for 40+ goals this season and Adam Saad looks likely to wear him like a glove, the star hasn't kicked a goal the last two times he's played Essendon after a few years of complete domination over the men in red and black. Taylor Walker is the probable match up for Cale Hooker whilst Brandon Zerk-Thatcher seems likely to replace Michael Hurley for his debut to play on Josh Jenkins, impressive young forwards Lachlan Murphy and Tyson Stengle likely to get attention from Mason Redman and Martin Gleeson respectively.
X-Factor Player
Tyson Stengle finally got his chance at AFL level against Gold Coast and lit it up with 3 goals against an admittedly weak side but should be playing consistently for Adelaide from here.
Key stat
Adelaide: Clearances. Adelaide usually win when they get on top in the middle and with quality like Brad and Matt Crouch, as well as Rory Sloane, you can understand why.
Essendon: Inside 50 differential. Essendon can really tighten the screws by denying Adelaide ball in there.
Tip
Dunno why but I feel like we'll win. Dons by 5
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