Advice on Strategy

[Kildonan]

So many people are logging onto this board with the intention of finding some crucial information that will help make selecting their team easier.

The answer probably does not lie in taking advice from internet experts especially if that advice is just a list of players.

If you were to just choose consistent, mature players at a reasonable price, you will do OK. Your scores will be competitive and if you manage to avoid significant injury problems you may even win your league. This approach however, will not allow you to compete with the better strategists of these games.

Both Dream Team (DT) and Super Coach (SC) require using some strategy in order to be competitive. Whatever strategy you use it must, in essence, involve selecting players whose value will increase. The increase in value can be used directly or indirectly to better your squad. At the same time you want to be able to maintain a relatively high score.

These competitions have made it harder to find bargains by linking the price to the previous seasons performance with no discount for those who have only played very few matches.

My strategy has been to select as many players as possible into my squad who will increase in value. I don't include players in my squad if they will not increase greatly in value or who are not already amongst the very elite high scorers of the competition.

I see the ultimate goal for me is to eventually fill my squad with as many as I possibly can of these elite high scorers.

My mentality is to select those players who consistently produce high scores (> 100 pts) and include several of them in each position (Backs, Centre, Ruck and Forwards). I am happy to pay full price for many of these but I still look for bargains. If I can, I hang onto these players for the duration of the competition.

The other players in my squad are there to improve in value. This is so I can trade them to get more of the elite players. I aim to trade for one every second or third week. I try to get these players as cheaply as possible. Players yet to debut are able to give the biggest increase in value but they probably produce lower scores than second or third year players. The secret is finding a balance of players who will increase in value and score enough to keep you competitive.

Another concern is that you need to be sure that the players in your squad are fit to play from week 1. You must have nerves of steel if you hang on to players who are not. They may play week 2 or they might not play all season. Teams to be most concerned about in this regard are Essendon and Brisbane. The coaches of each have never been accused of being reliable or honest - especially when it comes to injury recovery information.

Injury List Update

Adelaide

Nick Gill (hammy) 1 week
John Hinge (dislocated thumb) 1 week
Mark Ricciuto (back) 4 weeks
Bryce Campbell (ankle) 5 weeks
Ken McGregor (achilles tendonitis) 5 weeks
Ivan Maric (hip cartilage surgery) 6 weeks
John Meesen (medial ligament) 9 weeks
Rhett Biglands (ACL) season
Trent Hentschel (ACL) season

Brisbane

Jamie Charman (achilles) 1 week
Nigel Lappin (elbow) 1 week
Joel Patfull (knee) 1 week
Richard Hadley (ACL) 2 weeks
#Hayden Kiel (hammy) 2 weeks
Tim Notting (dislocated shoulder) 2 weeks
Josh Drummond (buttock) 3 weeks
Rhan Hooper (quad) 4 weeks
Matthew Leuenberger (OP) 4 weeks
Mitch Clark (knee - bone bruising) 6 weeks
Pat Garner (ACL) 6 weeks
Joel MacDonald (ACL) 12 weeks
#Anthony Corrie (ACL) 14 weeks
Chris Scott (hip) indefinite
Troy Selwood (back surgery) indefinite
Daniel Bradshaw (ACL) scans pending - possibly season

Carlton

#Aisake O'hAilpin (susp) 2 weeks
#Sam Jacobs (hand) 3 weeks
Anthony Raso (wrist) 3 weeks

Collingwood

Brad **** (ankle) 1 week
Danny Stanley (ankle) 1 week
John Anthony (neck) 2 weeks
Alan Didak (ACL) 3 weeks
Nathan Buckley (hammy) 6 weeks
Brodie Holland (susp) 6 weeks
Sean Rusling (shoulder reconstruction) 19 weeks
Chris Dawes (ACL) 20 weeks

Essendon

Scott Camporeale (achilles) 4 weeks
Jason Johnson (foot surgery) 4 weeks

Fremantle

Matthew Carr (susp) 1 week
Michael Johnson (susp) 4 weeks
Jeff Farmer (susp) 6 weeks
Byron Schammer (appendix/bowel surgery) 12 weeks

Geelong

James Kelly (susp) 2 weeks
Steven King (calf) 3 weeks
Mathew Stokes (susp) 3 weeks
Steve Johnson (club susp) 6 weeks
#Tom Lonergan (kidney) 10 weeks
#Joel Reynolds (ACL) season

Hawthorn

Shane Crawford (susp) 1 week
Michael Osborne (foot) 1 week
Campbell Brown (susp) 1 week
Richie Vandenberg (hammy) 3 weeks
Mitch Thorp (hip surgery) 15 weeks
Max Bailey (ACL) season

Kangaroos

Ed Lower (groin) 1 week
David Hale (hammy) 1 week
#Tim Hutchison (OP) 1 week
Josh Gibson (hammy) 3 weeks
Jesse Smith (ankle) 9 weeks
Leigh Harding (ACL) 11 weeks
Nathan Thompson (ACL) season

Melbourne

Colin Sylvia (OP) 1 week
Jared Rivers (hammy) 2 weeks
#Jace Bode (back) 4 weeks
Lynden Dunn (fractured cheekbone) 6 weeks
James Frawley (foot stress fracture) 8 weeks
#Daniel Hayes (club susp) indefinite

Port Adelaide

Shaun Burgoyne (hip) 1 week
Josh Mahoney (ankle) 1 week
Dean Brogan (broken nose/hammy) 3 weeks
Peter Burgoyne (quad) 3 weeks
Warren Tredrea (dislocated patella) 3 weeks

Richmond

Matthew Richardson (hammy) 1 week
Troy Simmonds (ankle surgery) 1 week
Ray Hall (fascia hip release) 4 weeks
Kent Kingsley (ankle) 4 weeks
Will Thursfield (ACL) 7 weeks
Mark Coughlan (ACL) season

St Kilda

Michael Gardiner (hernia surgery) 1 week
Nick Riewoldt (hammy) 2 weeks
Raphael Clarke (lumbar disc prolapse) 12 weeks
Aaron Hamill (PCL) indefinite

Sydney

Luke Ablett (back-related hammy) 1 week
Stephen Doyle (calf) 1 week
Tadgh Kennelly (shoulder) 1 week
Paul Bevan (hammy) 2 weeks
#Luke Brennan (knee) 3 weeks
Heath Grundy (back) 3 weeks
#Matt O'Dwyer (knee) 3 weeks
Adam Schneider (hammy) 3 weeks
Lewis Roberts-Thomson (foot stress fracture) 9 weeks

West Coast

Ash Hansen (groin) 2 weeks
Mitch Morton (medial ligament) 2 weeks
Mark Nicoski (shoulder dislocation) 11 weeks
Ben Cousins (club susp) indefinite
#Ashley Thornton (ACL) season

Western Bulldogs

Chris Grant (groin) 1 week
Wayde Skipper (foot) 1 week
#Michael West (knee) 1 week
Mitch Hahn (ACL) 2 weeks
Brian Harris (susp) 2 weeks
Brennan Stack (thigh) 2 weeks

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

Value selections 2007 Supercoach: (<$400k) - My Opinion Only

Blue = possible elite high scorer = possible great value

Back:
Xavier Ellis(Haw) $90k
Matthew Ferguson(StK) $90k
Tom Williams(WB) $90k
Tim Boyle(Haw) $93k
Sam Gilbert(StK) $121k
Justin Koschitzke(StK) $165k
Chris A Johnson(Mel) $262k
James Walker(Fre) $265k
Michael Wilson(PA) $300k
Jared Brennan(Bri) $316k
Xavier Clarke(StK) $330k
Grant Birchall(Haw) $358k

Centre:
Nathan Djerrkura(Gee) $90k
Travis Varcoe(Gee) $90k
Beau Muston(Haw) $90k
David Armitage(StK) $100k
Joel Selwood(Gee) $110k
Courtenay Dempsey(Ess) $118k
Bryce Gibbs(Car) $140k
David Rodan(PA) $150k
Tim Schmidt(Syd) $167k
Chris Knights(Ade) $235k
Shannon Hurn(WCE) $240k
Jason Winderlich(Ess) $243k
Sean Higgins(WB) $254k
Nigel Lappin(Bri) $264k
Clint Bartram(Mel) $283k
Andrew Swallow(Kan) $296k
Nathan Foley(Ric) $338k
Mark Murphy(Car) $363k
Kane Johnson(Ric) $376k
Brent Reilly(Ade) $377k
Nathan Jones(Mel) $381k

Ruck:
Patrick Ryder(Ess) $137k
Cameron Cloke(Car) $149k
Mark Jamar(Mel) $191k
Cameron Wood(Bri) $196k
Barry Brooks(StK) $206k
Luke Darcy(WB) $227k
Aaron Sandilands(Fre) $379k

Forward:
Aaron Edwards(Kan) $90k
Nick Gill(Ade) $90k
Alwyn Davey(Ess) $90k
Leroy Jetta(Ess) $90k
Tom Hawkins(Gee) $90k
Matt Little(Haw) $90k
Nathan Krakouer(PA) $90k
Beau Dowler(Haw) $126k
Justin Koschitzke(StK) $165k
Marty Pask(WB) $177k
Courtney Johns(Ess) $261k
Brad Fisher(Car) $278k
Jared Brennan(Bri) $316k
Lance Franklin(Haw) $325k
Nathan G Brown(Ric) $338k

I apologise for those players I didn't include that are great value.
My list is hardly an exhaustive one - I simply selected all the players I thought would do OK at a reasonable price. I then deleted those that I thought might be injury restricted on Round 1.

 

[borgy]

Re: Advice

Great insight! Top post!

I didnt realise that some players were out for that long.

From the dogs, Williams and Walsh could come off the list as they both played today.

 

[sante]

Re: Advice

Does one week mean that they're back for Round 1?

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

Yes - they will most probably play in the first round

 

[Gizmo]

Re: Advice

Great post StKildonan, lots of good tips.

 

[nighthawk]

Re: Advice

Woah dude, you and I have freakishly similar ideas. Pretty much exactly how i would've worded it.

Only thing is, I'm not sure how up to date that injury list is. I know from Essendon at least that Camporeale and Johnson are both possibilities to play round one...

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

Yes - I've already edited to account for players who've had a run in the seconds this week.

Note that a number of Saints had a run with the Casey Scorpions, but I can assure you that not all of them are fit enough to play next week !

 

[Ausyid]

Re: Advice

Great post and especially thank you for the injury list

 

[Ray Ball]

Re: Advice

So you dont mind leaving extra money left over in your bank?

 

[T-I-G-E-R-M-A-N]

Re: Advice

Great insight! Top post!

I didnt realise that some players were out for that long.

From the dogs, Williams and Walsh could come off the list as they both played today.

Ey borgy is Tom Williams worth taking a punt on... im thinking about taking him but unsure if he will make an impact this year, what are your thoughts?

Cheers

 

[Deledio2Conca]

Re: Advice

So i'm guessing an underdone Nick Riewoldt is a bad option to have in your Round 1 team? Better to pick him up around Round 3-4?

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

So you dont mind leaving extra money left over in your bank?

I have some monies set aside to give me some freedom of choice (in case the unthinkable should happen and one of my top line picks goes down injured early). But I encourage everybody to make up their own mind on how they want to play it. There is a serious arguement that the best approach is to spend all of your money and maximise your investments early. I prefer to give myself some options.

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

So i'm guessing an underdone Nick Riewoldt is a bad option to have in your Round 1 team? Better to pick him up around Round 3-4?

He wont play round 1.

I haven't selected him. I am going to trade for him as soon as I'm sure he's right.

You could opt to select him now and carry him and save yourself a trade.
This isn't a wrong choice - merely a different approach. You would need to be careful to ensure that you have "playing" reserves.

 

[Ray Ball]

Re: Advice

fair enough

while ur offering advice...

franklin vs monfries
riggio vs lachlen hansen

where did u finish overall last yr?

 

[Ray Ball]

Re: Advice

also luke ball vs tambling.

considering that tambling should increase in value?

 

[Deledio2Conca]

Re: Advice

I might try and field your Tambling question. He is probably one that you may have to use a trade on just before the prices go up. So what I'm saying is I'd take him over Ball if he really looks like improving after the first 2-3 games, but I wouldn't be game enough to have him in my Rnd 1 side just yet.

Having said that though there is no doubt he will score more than last year, but then again, an injury-free Luke Ball probably will too.

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

fair enough

while ur offering advice...

franklin vs monfries
riggio vs lachlen hansen

I don't want to spend endless hours fielding questions like Franklin v Monfries.

Meh, both will increase in value, neither will progress to elite high scorer.
Riggio may play earlier than Hansen - so that may lean me towards him

where did u finish overall last yr?

I always finish in the top 1%. Last year was in the top 1000 (see link)
Last year I did better in supercoach than DT.
I am one of the elite dreamteamers (2nd league of DT) (1st of Supercoach)

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

also luke ball vs tambling.

considering that tambling should increase in value?

This one is easy:

Luke Ball is an elite high scorer who had a bad season. He is cheap - especially for the quality and consistency he offers. Once you buy him you simply hang on to him and let the scores accumulate in your total. He would have to succumb to a season ending injury for you to consider selling him.

Tambling is an exciting player on the rise. He is good value but he will not become one of the elite high scorers that you want to hang onto - he simply is a means to an end. Include him for the money he can make you then trade up.

 

[Kildonan]

Re: Advice

Please don't make this thread into a list of who is better Player A v Player B ?

There are already threads available for that sort of advice.

My aim in this thread is to get a few more Elite DreamTeamers to offer some little bits of advice - on the philosophy behind the choice of player rather than asking them to chose them for you.

Having a strategy means that you will have some discipline to your approach.
Using the insight of several elite dream teamers should assist you in developing your strategy and should give you the edge that you need.

 

[LukeHodge15]

Re: Advice

Please don't make this thread into a list of who is better Player A v Player B ?

There are already threads available for that sort of advice.

My aim in this thread is to get a few more Elite DreamTeamers to offer some little bits of advice - on the philosophy behind the choice of player rather than asking them to chose them for you.

Having a strategy means that you will have some discipline to your approach.
Using the insight of several elite dream teamers should assist you in developing your strategy should give you the edge that you need.

And get people to think for themselves and make decisions all on their own footy knowledge ........... Wont happen, i assure u.

But a very very good idea for this thread St.Kildadon.

 

[StartaMuster]

Re: Advice

also
Hawk
Campbell Brown (Susp) for R1

Added

 

[LukeHodge15]

Re: Advice

LH15's TIP

Don't gamble on injured players or players with major injury historys. 95% of the time u will get burnt quicker than an alcoholic going into the oven at a crematorium. 20 trades are like gold and the less u use for replacing injured players, the more u have for cashing in cash cows and upgrading them to premium GUNS.

 

[m0nty]

Re: Advice

m0nty's tip is about positions:

Do NOT take any risks in the rucks. Pick three top-line rucks at least. You can't afford to waste trades on the rucks to cover injuries during the year if you want to get anywhere. Try to get it in your head that you don't want to spend ANY trades on the rucks, and pick your team accordingly. In short:

Pick two of these guaranteed gold premiums: Cox, Sandilands, Lade.
Pick one of these slightly more iffy near-premiums with less then premium pricing: Everitt, Hudson, Campbell.
Pick one cut-price cash cow: Griffin, Darcy, Leuenberger.

Anyone outside those bands is probably going to let you down, or not give you any increase in points production over their price. Unlike most of the posts by EDTers on this board, the above is my actual honest opinion.

 

[macca69]

Re: Advice

Macca's tip

My tip was going to be minimise risk, by not picking injury prone players - thanks LH15

I guess another good piece of advice is ignore people who say 'your backs are weak, but your forwards are good - downgrade your forwards and upgrade your backs', that's not logical IMO. You don't have to have your backs scoring the same as your forwards, if you feel there are better options in the forwards at a certain price, load up there. For instance, if you have say 4 players under 200k in your starting lineup, there's nothing wrong with them all being forwards, if you think they're your 4 best options at that price range.

But the best tip would be that if you're not 100% sure about making a decision a final one, feel free to PM skooks.

Good Luck to everyone this year .