AFL 2015

[Keystone agony]

I dont see all the excitement about the crows. Lack too much depth.

Walker, Betts forward

Dangerfield, Sloane, Jacobs, Crouch, ST midfield

B.Smith, Talia back

Outside of that group i think they are too vunerable and dont run deep enough. Even i think ST will really tail off this year.

They will need massive years from Vanberlo, Henderson, T.Lynch, Douglas, Jenkins.

I just think they are too shallow.

This is without looking at fixtures though. Backline and forward line lacks too much for me.

 

[Rids]

What are your reasons for freo and Sydney both sliding?

With respect to Sydney see post 40.

In regards to Freo well let me clarify that I was talking about missing Top 4 so given Freo finished H&A in 4th and went out in straight sets so it's not a significant slide to suggest they'll miss the top 4.

My concerns with Freo are fairly similar to Sydney - I love their midfield but there are plenty of elite midfields out there so the advantage is not massive and I have doubts both down back and up forward. Like Sydney, I expect their defence to fall away in 2015. McPharlin (33 Round 1), Johnson (30) and Duffield (30) remain very important to Freo's structure and are all at the back-end of their career and influence is starting to wane (albeit I know Johnson was superb early in 2014 and there is no rule that 30+ means decline - but there is certainly a trend). The terrific structure Freo have which relies less on individual brilliance will keep their defence near the best in the league but there is only so much that can be expected with limitations on the cattle and top 4 might be a bridge too far.

Up forward, I don't think it will come as a surprise to any Freo supporter that they need more tall forward options. Pavlich remains a good tall forward but is not the great he once was and at age 33 come Round 1 it would be far more likely that he will continue to decline rather than jump back up to pre 2012 levels. I believe there will be an increasing reliance on meaningful scoreboard contributions from Chris Mayne as well as either Matt Taberner or Michael Apeness stepping up which is a lot to ask for. The more likely scenario is that Ballantyne and Walters will be your two best forwards which is fine in that they are both quality but you would much prefer them complementing a strong tall forward division rather than relying on them to lead the forward line and hoping the tall forwards can chip in enough to get a competitive total.

In summary, not a lot of major weaknesses with Freo but enough concerns that I see them more likely to decline than improve. In addition, I am bullish about Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Adelaide and to a lesser extent Essendon as sides that can potentially overtake Freo which means 5th to 8th rather than a top 4 spot is where I would have Freo based on 2015 squads.

 

[Atavistic]

Jarrod Garlett is $51 AND $81 for Rising Star on SportsBet...

 

[Lensen]

Jarrod Garlett is $51 AND $81 for Rising Star on SportsBet...

no, one of them is jarrod gartlett, completely different player

 

[Keystone agony]

I think freo have an elite small/medium forward group in Ballantyne, Mayne, Walters and Crozier. Thats not including Sylvia he could be the x factor for freo this year if he can get to his best.

Z.Clarke and Pavlich with a bit of Taberner seems enough for Freo.

 

[free at last]

With respect to Sydney see post 40.

In regards to Freo well let me clarify that I was talking about missing Top 4 so given Freo finished H&A in 4th and went out in straight sets so it's not a significant slide to suggest they'll miss the top 4.

My concerns with Freo are fairly similar to Sydney - I love their midfield but there are plenty of elite midfields out there so the advantage is not massive and I have doubts both down back and up forward. Like Sydney, I expect their defence to fall away in 2015. McPharlin (33 Round 1), Johnson (30) and Duffield (30) remain very important to Freo's structure and are all at the back-end of their career and influence is starting to wane (albeit I know Johnson was superb early in 2014 and there is no rule that 30+ means decline - but there is certainly a trend). The terrific structure Freo have which relies less on individual brilliance will keep their defence near the best in the league but there is only so much that can be expected with limitations on the cattle and top 4 might be a bridge too far.

Up forward, I don't think it will come as a surprise to any Freo supporter that they need more tall forward options. Pavlich remains a good tall forward but is not the great he once was and at age 33 come Round 1 it would be far more likely that he will continue to decline rather than jump back up to pre 2012 levels. I believe there will be an increasing reliance on meaningful scoreboard contributions from Chris Mayne as well as either Matt Taberner or Michael Apeness stepping up which is a lot to ask for. The more likely scenario is that Ballantyne and Walters will be your two best forwards which is fine in that they are both quality but you would much prefer them complementing a strong tall forward division rather than relying on them to lead the forward line and hoping the tall forwards can chip in enough to get a competitive total.

In summary, not a lot of major weaknesses with Freo but enough concerns that I see them more likely to decline than improve. In addition, I am bullish about Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Adelaide and to a lesser extent Essendon as sides that can potentially overtake Freo which means 5th to 8th rather than a top 4 spot is where I would have Freo based on 2015 squads.

You make some very relevant points about freo.

Cheers for the reply.

 

[Cuzz09]

Sylvia he could be the x factor for freo

"said no one ever"

 

[Jugada]

I think freo have an elite small/medium forward group in Ballantyne, Mayne, Walters and Crozier. Thats not including Sylvia he could be the x factor for freo this year if he can get to his best.

Z.Clarke and Pavlich with a bit of Taberner seems enough for Freo.

Mayne, Crozier and Sylvia don't belong anywhere near the word elite

 

[Keystone agony]

Mayne, Crozier and Sylvia don't belong anywhere near the word elite

You need to learn how to read

 

[Jugada]

You need to learn how to read

I can read perfectly. They have a very good duo but as a group adding in those other spuds just drags it down

 

[Keystone agony]

I can read perfectly. They have a very good duo but as a group adding in those other spuds just drags it down

They all play there role.

Maynes got great defensive and lock in ability. He was very good in 2013.

Crozier showed he is going to come on nicely as a player and was very good at the back end of 2014 and continues to develop so early into his career.

It would be why i used the word 'group'. Mayne isnt a bad 3rd medium/small forward and Crozier is a pretty bloody good 4th small forward compared to the rest of the comp. Ballas and Sunny sit as some of the best 1-2 combo of smalls in the comp as a 4 they are close to the best - thus elite.

By no way am i saying Mayne or Crozier as sole players are 'elite'

 

[Lensen]

chris mayne is a slightly richer (but not much) man's version of tyson goldsack, at least based on 2014. he added pretty much nothing but defensive pressure
i'm relatively bullish that last year was a blip and he can return to actually kicking a reasonable amount of goals

 

[Keystone agony]

He takes way better opponents, hits the scoreboard more and can actually kick.

I dont see him kicking massive bags of goals. I think hes a 20-30 goal forward for a season.

 

[Lensen]

He takes way better opponents, hits the scoreboard more and can actually kick.

I dont see him kicking massive bags of goals. I think hes a 20-30 goal forward for a season.

he kicked 13 last year, 3 more than goldsack who played back a couple of games

 

[Nothing]

he kicked 13 last year, 3 more than goldsack who played back a couple of games

Mayne played back in games as well. Having said that, I can see the comparison on 2014 form. Goldsack's best though is a fair way behind Mayne's 2013 form, IMO.

 

[Lensen]

Goldsack's best though is a fair way behind Mayne's 2013 form, IMO.

Oh yeah definitely

 

[Donkey Chop]

Not sure if you guys have discussed this yet but tab has West Coast at $13 for the minor premiership. Way too short imo

 

[free at last]

What are people's thoughts on the WB seasons wins of 6.5 o/u?

I can't see the doggies winning 7 games.

And GWS 6.5 o/u?

 

[banana_bus]

Not sure if you guys have discussed this yet but tab has West Coast at $13 for the minor premiership. Way too short imo

Overrated every year, just like Adelaide and North Melbourne.

 

[banana_bus]

What are people's thoughts on the WB seasons wins of 6.5 o/u?

I can't see the doggies winning 7 games.

And GWS 6.5 o/u?

They have 8 very winnable games (StK/GWS/Mel/GC/Bris@home). Outside of those I can only see them winning 1 or 2.

So they'd have to win 5-6 of those winnable games, which seems unlikely.

 

[Lensen]

Not sure if you guys have discussed this yet but tab has West Coast at $13 for the minor premiership. Way too short imo

Wait til they beat the dogs round 1, they'll be favs

 

[KardiniaPark]

Wait til they beat the dogs in round 1, they'll be favs

'Nic Nat back to AA form'
'Best Forward line in the league'
'Shuey & Gaff look to have taken the next step'

 

[Lensen]

'Nic Nat back to AA form'
'Best Forward line in the league'
'Shuey & Gaff look to have taken the next step'

"subi is such a fortress, they rarely get beaten there, basically 11 wins right there"

 

[KardiniaPark]

'Lycett amply filling the huge boots left by Cox'

 

[GROTTO]

What are people's thoughts on the WB seasons wins of 6.5 o/u?

I can't see the doggies winning 7 games.

And GWS 6.5 o/u?

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/af...ey-beat-the-line/story-fnelctok-1227187984697

Nice review of each teams chances of beating the current line provided by Sportsbet. I suspect the line may change depending on NAB Cup form.

I have the Dogs as under 6.5 as well as GWS.