Opinion AFL 2023 Round 19 - Liked, learnt, hated

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Zevon

Zevon

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Liked - Hard to go past that game in Adelaide last night. Brilliant to watch as a neutral and both sides have a lot to look forward to in September. Honourable mention to Richmond’s comeback yesterday afternoon to keep their season alive; another great game to watch.

Learnt - Adam Kingsley might be the most underrated coach in the league. 6 wins on the trot for the Giants after they were going absolutely nowhere earlier in the year (lost to West Coast in round 2 let’s not forget). I thought they were zero chance of making the finals before the season started but he’s got them sitting seventh and playing really well.

Hated - That St Kilda-North game this afternoon. Yuck. Enough said.
 
Liked- Liam Baker

Hated- Trent Cotchin whenever he gets the ball 15 m out directly in front

Learnt- Dees are looking really vulnerable, especially without Oliver. Should be yet another close game for the Dees next week against the Tiges.
 
Liked - Thoroughly enjoyed the Port Pies game.
Learned- I have a soft spot for GWS. Should I seek therapy?
Hated- Geelong could not get the win at the Gabba.
 

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Liked: four exciting thrillers, albeit I didn't really care for the results.

Hated: above mentioned results

Learnt: Adelaide are a better team than St Kilda yet somehow way below them on the ladder.
 
Liked

The build-up to a late season match between 1st and 2nd placed teams separated by only 1 win and percentage. This was a textbook '8-point game', with a Port Adelaide win that would result in both teams tied for wins at the top of the ladder and the race for the minor premiership wide open with 5 games to go, or a Collingwood win that would just about lock them in for the minor premiership with a 2 game and percentage gap over Port.
The game was a fiercely contested thriller, and easily the best game of the year. And obviously, I liked the fact my team won.

How open the competition is this year, in terms of genuine contenders for the premiership, but also for a spot in the 8 which would be a significant achievement and milestone for a lot of the clubs battling for a spot even if they didn't make it past the elimination finals. Amongst the teams fighting for a spot in the 8, we have last year's premiers and runners-up, and a Richmond side that has won 3 of the last 6 premierships. If any of those sides find some serious form over the next 5 weeks, who knows what they might do in the finals?

Learnt

1st place, and the top 4, unlikely to change from now:
  • Three key round 19 matches (Pies def Port, Bris def Cats, Melb winning), resulted in there being 2 wins + percentage (effectively 3 wins) between 1st and 2nd and 4th and 5th. With just 5 games to go, for the first time this season, it is possible to make a confident, probability-based prediction that Collingwood will finish in 1st, and no team from 5th down will finish in the top 4.
  • The final finishing order of 2nd-4th is less certain. I think Port's range is 2nd-3rd, Brisbane 2nd-4th, and Melbourne 3rd-4th (4th is probably considered by many to be the better result for them).
When assessing how the top 4 teams have performed against each other, they are more evenly matched than their overall H&A record would suggest:
  • There have been 8 games between the current top 4 sides (all top 4 sides have played 4 games against a current top 4 opponent each). Only one game between the top 4 remains (Collingwood vs. Brisbane, Marvel Stadium).
  • 7/8 games between these sides were won by the home side (6/7 if you exclude Collingwood vs. Melbourne at a neutral MCG).
  • The average winning margin has been 22.5 points. 4/8 games were won by less than a goal. 5/8 games were won by less than 2 goals.
  • Potato of top 4 parity: Pies>Port>Bris>Melb>Pies>Port>Melb>Bris>Pies.
  • Potato of <2 goal victory parity: Bris>Melb>Pies>Port>Melb>Bris.
  • Potato of 5+ goal victory parity: Pies>Port>Bris>Pies.
  • Collingwood is the only team to have won away. Brisbane away vs. Collingwood is the only remaining game that may change this. Port Adelaide is the only team to have lost on its home ground (excluding Collinwood's loss as the away side on its home ground vs. a co-tenant).
  • Every team except Collingwood has beaten 2/3 of the other top 4 sides at least once. Collingwood is 1/3, with Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium to come potentially making it 2/3 for every side.
  • Collingwood is the only side in the top 4 that has beaten 2nd-placed Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide is the only side in the top 4 that has not beaten 1st-placed Collingwood.
  • Collingwood is the only side in the top 4 that has not beaten either 3rd-placed Brisbane or 4th-placed Melbourne (with one game against Brisbane remaining). Port Adelaide is the only side in the top 4 that is undefeated vs. 3rd-placed Brisbane & 4th-placed Melbourne.

Hated

On a personal level, I hated Will Ashcroft's injury for all the same reasons I hate when any player suffers a significant setback in their AFL career given what a short amount of time they have to make the most of it. In his case, it is made worse by the fact we are 5 weeks out from finals and he plays for a team nearly certain to finish top 4, and a decent chance to finish top 2. It has robbed him of at least two finals matches, if not more, that he earned as much as any other Brisbane player. On the bright side, someone else will get an opportunity they wouldn't have otherwise had. I hope they make the most of it.

On a football level, I hate that Brisbane lost one of its best players for the rest of the year in a season where the top 4 sides are all genuine contenders and none of them has outperformed the other top 4 sides across the 8 matches played between them. Teams good enough to win premierships have a system and depth past 23 players to still perform at their best without dependency on any one player, I just hope every side makes it to the finals with as close to a full list as possible to contend at their best.
 
Liked: The game between Port and Collingwood was great as was the Melbourne V Adelaide.

Learnt: My team is not good enough this year. Geelong are hometown bullies and lame ducks away, the contrast in performances is more than alarming. Geelong is done and dusted, they are goals behind Port and Pies.

Hated: Young Ashcroft going down with an ACL, such a good young player. Richmond and St.Kilda stealing wins.
 
Liked: Come from behind win. Crazy, and the Hawks probably should have won. But awesome finish

Learnt: The Hawks have talent and a decent game plan. The Tigers are ... not quite sure whether they are any good or not.

Hated: Umpiring. What is deliberate out of bounds? You can literally pull a player to the ground now! HTB is ... I don't know. Handball with one hand is fine. I know this is always there. But this weekend I just had no idea at times. Stand rule has died. It makes watching the footy so hard.
 
JeffreyCC said:
Liked - Thoroughly enjoyed the Port Pies game.
Learned- I have a soft spot for GWS. Should I seek therapy?
Hated- Geelong could not get the win at the Gabba.
Click to expand...
I've got a number if you need a referral.
 
Liked - Port Adelaide had a crack and still couldn't beat the pies at home. A well oiled machine are collingwood

Learnt - GWS are much better than what most if us gave credit for . If not for a dubious umpiring decision against Carlton , they'd be entrenched in the top 8 , and mu blues would be all but finished for the year

Hated - all the offended on Curnow kicking a lazy 10 v eagles ( backed up by a 9 earlier in the year ) with people putting an asterisk for the coleman.
People forget those sitting behind him have also kicked bags against Eagles and Hawks so unless someone comes up with a clear calculation method of determining the coleman medal , maybe STFU !
 

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PizzaPie said:
Liked

The build-up to a late season match between 1st and 2nd placed teams separated by only 1 win and percentage. This was a textbook '8-point game', with a Port Adelaide win that would result in both teams tied for wins at the top of the ladder and the race for the minor premiership wide open with 5 games to go, or a Collingwood win that would just about lock them in for the minor premiership with a 2 game and percentage gap over Port.
The game was a fiercely contested thriller, and easily the best game of the year. And obviously, I liked the fact my team won.

How open the competition is this year, in terms of genuine contenders for the premiership, but also for a spot in the 8 which would be a significant achievement and milestone for a lot of the clubs battling for a spot even if they didn't make it past the elimination finals. Amongst the teams fighting for a spot in the 8, we have last year's premiers and runners-up, and a Richmond side that has won 3 of the last 6 premierships. If any of those sides find some serious form over the next 5 weeks, who knows what they might do in the finals?

Learnt

1st place, and the top 4, unlikely to change from now:
  • Three key round 19 matches (Pies def Port, Bris def Cats, Melb winning), resulted in there being 2 wins + percentage (effectively 3 wins) between 1st and 2nd and 4th and 5th. With just 5 games to go, for the first time this season, it is possible to make a confident, probability-based prediction that Collingwood will finish in 1st, and no team from 5th down will finish in the top 4.
  • The final finishing order of 2nd-4th is less certain. I think Port's range is 2nd-3rd, Brisbane 2nd-4th, and Melbourne 3rd-4th (4th is probably considered by many to be the better result for them).
When assessing how the top 4 teams have performed against each other, they are more evenly matched than their overall H&A record would suggest:
  • There have been 8 games between the current top 4 sides (all top 4 sides have played 4 games against a current top 4 opponent each). Only one game between the top 4 remains (Collingwood vs. Brisbane, Marvel Stadium).
  • 7/8 games between these sides were won by the home side (6/7 if you exclude Collingwood vs. Melbourne at a neutral MCG).
  • The average winning margin has been 22.5 points. 4/8 games were won by less than a goal. 5/8 games were won by less than 2 goals.
  • Potato of top 4 parity: Pies>Port>Bris>Melb>Pies>Port>Melb>Bris>Pies.
  • Potato of <2 goal victory parity: Bris>Melb>Pies>Port>Melb>Bris.
  • Potato of 5+ goal victory parity: Pies>Port>Bris>Pies.
  • Collingwood is the only team to have won away. Brisbane away vs. Collingwood is the only remaining game that may change this. Port Adelaide is the only team to have lost on its home ground (excluding Collinwood's loss as the away side on its home ground vs. a co-tenant).
  • Every team except Collingwood has beaten 2/3 of the other top 4 sides at least once. Collingwood is 1/3, with Brisbane @ Marvel Stadium to come potentially making it 2/3 for every side.
  • Collingwood is the only side in the top 4 that has beaten 2nd-placed Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide is the only side in the top 4 that has not beaten 1st-placed Collingwood.
  • Collingwood is the only side in the top 4 that has not beaten either 3rd-placed Brisbane or 4th-placed Melbourne (with one game against Brisbane remaining). Port Adelaide is the only side in the top 4 that is undefeated vs. 3rd-placed Brisbane & 4th-placed Melbourne.

Hated

On a personal level, I hated Will Ashcroft's injury for all the same reasons I hate when any player suffers a significant setback in their AFL career given what a short amount of time they have to make the most of it. In his case, it is made worse by the fact we are 5 weeks out from finals and he plays for a team nearly certain to finish top 4, and a decent chance to finish top 2. It has robbed him of at least two finals matches, if not more, that he earned as much as any other Brisbane player. On the bright side, someone else will get an opportunity they wouldn't have otherwise had. I hope they make the most of it.

On a football level, I hate that Brisbane lost one of its best players for the rest of the year in a season where the top 4 sides are all genuine contenders and none of them has outperformed the other top 4 sides across the 8 matches played between them. Teams good enough to win premierships have a system and depth past 23 players to still perform at their best without dependency on any one player, I just hope every side makes it to the finals with as close to a full list as possible to contend at their best.
Click to expand...
Good post, really like the analysis on the top 4 teams against each other. And it really shows that it is very even between those 4 teams, which why it drives me insane when there's talk of only being only 2 contenders in Collingwood and Port.
And that's not to disrespect Collingwood (or port), they're absolutely the best team in it and deserve all that praise but I don't think it's going to be a walk in the park for them.

Its gonna be a fun finals series when they all come across each other
 
Liked - the closeness of all the teams from 5th to 14th
learnt - collingwoods flag to lose, Freo now done(Fyfe and Darcy put on ice for the season)
Hated - the continued subconcious biased umpires decisions towards a players intent
 
Liked: The game vs Collingwood was just an exceptionally entertaining game of football between two of the real contenders this year (Pies obviously ahead as the clear favorite) As well as Port not going completely to water in the face of the expectation and being competitive despite not quite getting the W in the end, in previous years that would have been an 80 point belting with that weight of expectation.

Hated: The garbage directed at Willie Rioli, no place for it.

Learned: I don't think we get past the pies this year if we do have a route to the flag I think it involves them going out earlier than expected although I would back us in against Melbourne and The Lions, even at the G...especially Brisbane
 
Learnt: Everyone including msm have some sort of obsession that the Pies are a lock for the flag, when in reality we see that the Pies have an achilles heel, that being that no team can play that sort of football to win a match week in week out, let alone a whole game. If we're to win the whole box and dice we're gonna have to play more than one dominant qtr to win finals, let alone the GF, much easier said than done. As much it is terrifying for opposition it is equally taxing to execute. Similar story to the 2018 GF team.

Fingers and toes crossed to the point of cramping, won't be convinced until we're 10 goals up with 10 seconds to go in the GF. IF we get there.

Liked: The unassailable belief in the the playing and coaching group that is the Pies, *n unbelievable unwavering conviction. Whether or not that carries us to flag remains to be seen. What's certain is we don't have the best list in it, belief in system and role play is what may win it, not pure talent.

Hated: The injury to Ashcroft, *n soul destroying for him and the club, as much as this helps my club coz I'm sh*t scared of the Lions, I'd rather us win the whole box and dice on merit instead having a convenient injury to one of our most potent opposition.

Throws the rising star award into turmoil as well, I still think he'll get it but what if Sheezel or Owens rips the comp apart and take it off him? F*n sh*thouse! - do we put an asterisk on it then?

*d!
 
Handsome_Jack said:
Learned: I don't think we get past the pies this year if we do have a route to the flag
Click to expand...
This is not a given, personally I think the playing and coaching group at Port think they can get us, you had us on toast and when we put the challenge up and you're mob met it, TWICE getting the lead back in the last only for panic to lose a game you should've won. Farrell with that deliberate in front of Billy Elliot.

More than certain Ken and his panel will review that and instill not to panic next time, not to mention there's bulk improvement in the Port team.

The same goes for the Dees and Lions, they've both beat us, and are capable of doing so again.

The race is wide open, there is no known universe that we're clear favourites.
 
Carringbush2010 said:
Learnt: Everyone including msm have some sort of obsession that the Pies are a lock for the flag, when in reality we see that the Pies have an achilles heel, that being that no team can play that sort of football to win a match week in week out, let alone a whole game. If we're to win the whole box and dice we're gonna have to play more than one dominant qtr to win finals, let alone the GF, much easier said than done. As much it is terrifying for opposition it is equally taxing to execute. Similar story to the 2018 GF
Click to expand...
With you guys’ extraordinary ability peg back leads and win games by a point, it’s becoming clear the only way to beat Collingwood is to make sure they have a 50 point lead at three quarter time. You won’t have a clue what to do with yourselves.
 
SBD Gonzalez said:
With you guys’ extraordinary ability peg back leads and win games by a point, it’s becoming clear the only way to beat Collingwood is to make sure they have a 50 point lead at three quarter time. You won’t have a clue what to do with yourselves.
Click to expand...
We've been behind in 7 games at 3/4 time, more often than not in front, this year, so the scenario that you've humorously put here (which some would take seriously) has already been tested.

Sure, it's a 'belief in system' thing, and it looks pretty watertight, but coz it's Collingwood I'm keepin the lid on until we're 60 up with 10 seconds to go in the GF.
 
Carringbush2010 said:
We've been behind in 7 games at 3/4 time, more often than not in front, this year, so the scenario that you've humorously put here (which some would take seriously) has already been tested.

Sure, it's a 'belief in system' thing, and it looks pretty watertight, but coz it's Collingwood I'm keepin the lid on until we're 60 up with 10 seconds to go in the GF.
Click to expand...

It's very sporting to be approaching it from that perspective but surely you give yourself a pretty big chance at this point after getting over your at this point most looming threat on their home deck after a game where both teams cracked in hard
 
Handsome_Jack said:
It's very sporting to be approaching it from that perspective but surely you give yourself a pretty big chance at this point after getting over your at this point most looming threat on their home deck after a game where both teams cracked in hard
Click to expand...
Not sure how old you are or aware of our history, but this sums it up, our GF record.

Played 44

Won 15

Lost 27

Drawn 2

That is the reason the lid is still on, obviously definitely on at the club and likely most Pie fans. My lid will stay firmly planted until we're 10 goals up with 10 seconds to go in the GF, that's if we even get there, anything less and I'm a nervous wreck.

So you can understand why we're not the most exuberant in confidence.

In saying that, as an old man, this club is now running like it should be, no hare brain trade deals or dumb 'succession plans' or president gaffes, giving ourselves the best chance to win it.
 
Carringbush2010 said:
Not sure how old you are or aware of our history, but this sums it up, our GF record.

Played 44

Won 15

Lost 27

Drawn 2

That is the reason the lid is still on, obviously definitely on at the club and likely most Pie fans. My lid will stay firmly planted until we're 10 goals up with 10 seconds to go in the GF, that's if we even get there, anything less and I'm a nervous wreck.

So you can understand why we're not the most exuberant in confidence.

In saying that, as an old man, this club is now running like it should be, no hare brain trade deals or dumb 'succession plans' or president gaffes, giving ourselves the best chance to win it.
Click to expand...
Just to add, my first taste of the pain was in 77 as a 7 yo, we went in as odds on favourites, only to *it up like we did in 70.

Ironically the year I was born.
 
Carringbush2010 said:
Not sure how old you are or aware of our history, but this sums it up, our GF record.

Played 44

Won 15

Lost 27

Drawn 2

That is the reason the lid is still on, obviously definitely on at the club and likely most Pie fans. My lid will stay firmly planted until we're 10 goals up with 10 seconds to go in the GF, that's if we even get there, anything less and I'm a nervous wreck.

So you can understand why we're not the most exuberant in confidence.

In saying that, as an old man, this club is now running like it should be, no hare brain trade deals or dumb 'succession plans' or president gaffes, giving ourselves the best chance to win it.
Click to expand...

Valid honestly, having said that whilst I haven't been following the game anywhere near as long as I you I feel I have some capacity to empathize when it comes to GF pain. Port supporter who immigrated over here and fell in love with the game at 13yrs old...in 2007 :sweatsmile:
 
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