Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 8 - Blues v Pies Fri May 3rd 7:40pm AEST (MCG)

[Chief]

Right: Unless it's a bad one against Carlton, I don't wanna hear constant whinging about umpiring from you lot!

 

[JustaBattler]

Indeed. It matters not because the Richmond and Fremantle games were closed out anyway, by hook or crook.

5-2 with a whole lot Voss will optimise and improve on is a great position to be in.

My calculus sees Carlton short of a KPD to partner with Weitering and at least one 'real' small forward who can kick a bag on a good day - these shortcomings are structural and cost plenty against better opponents.

The club is being engineered to be a regular finals team - the list is finally in a position where it can begin to actually develop younger players and the constantly not available due to injury this or that will be weeded out.

A flag or not is as much about luck as anything else - I think gone are the days of teams having player dominance or coaching dominance.

I'm enjoying watching Carlton play these days because they can match teh physicality of any team and also run out 4 quarters - something which one couldn't say about the team sicne I started watching AFL.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

I'm enjoying watching Carlton play these days because they can match teh physicality of any team and also run out 4 quarters - something which one couldn't say about the team sicne I started watching AFL.

"Run out 4 quarters" is a noteworthy factor, Pies struggling to do that this year but Carlton have been finishing well, that's my biggest fear heading into this game

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[JustaBattler]

"Run out 4 quarters" is a noteworthy factor, Pies struggling to do that this year but Carlton have been finishing well, that's my biggest fear heading into this game

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Carlton managed to get its own VFL team what 4 years ago ? - that is how far back it has started from compared to most Clubs. Unbelievable levels of crapola management- impossible to develop anything or anyone properly. Now slowly working its way through players whose bodies are just not up to it...and you don't know until you know...

Things like that have been fixed or (started) take time to wash through a Club.

Fun watching the growth and development.

I'll make my call on teh game tonight onve Ive seen the team picked.

I'm genuinely sorry to see DeGoey and Mitchell out - evens things uop somewhat but would rather benchmark against teams with best available playing.

 

[Juddernaut08]

-Hoyne says Carlton are not at a tipping point with defensive injuries that can explain this.

Missing McGovern, Marchbank and Saad from our back 6. Means spuds like Young, or kids like Cowan are playing.

Missing a host of pressure forwards meaning it comes out of our F50 easier.

It's next man up at Voss-town/Blues land, but the injuries are certainly relevant.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Carlton managed to get its own VFL team what 4 years ago ? - that is how far back it has started from compared to most Clubs. Unbelievable levels of crapola management- impossible to develop anything or anyone properly. Now slowly working its way through players whose bodies are just not up to it...and you don't know until you know...

Things like that have been fixed or (started) take time to wash through a Club.

Fun watching the growth and development.

I'll make my call on teh game tonight onve Ive seen the team picked.

I'm genuinely sorry to see DeGoey and Mitchell out - evens things uop somewhat but would rather benchmark against teams with best available playing.

Not sure why we got rid of the reserves, possibly the dumbest and idea in the league's history

I don't mind de Goey out because he's been awful, if he's been carrying a niggle then he needs to get it right

Titch also quiet this year so far

Whole side needs to lift, individuals not that relevant at the moment

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[bourbons]

Missing McGovern, Marchbank and Saad from our back 6. Means spuds like Young, or kids like Cowan are playing.

Missing a host of pressure forwards meaning it comes out of our F50 easier.

It's next man up at Voss-town/Blues land, but the injuries are certainly relevant.

Not to mention Doc.

As I said earlier, I don't think we're good/deep enough yet to cover all those across half back. 1 yeah we should be right, 2 well its gonna be tougher, all 3 thats a substantial impact to your ability to defend particularly when playing against the top clubs. Going 3-3 against GWS Geelong Pies Dees Swans and Port would be a really solid result for us imo.

 

[Robertio]

Not sure why we got rid of the reserves, possibly the dumbest and idea in the league's history

I don't mind de Goey out because he's been awful, if he's been carrying a niggle then he needs to get it right

Titch also quiet this year so far

Whole side needs to lift, individuals not that relevant at the moment

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Both usually play well against Carlton.

 

[Thrawn]

I don't mind de Goey out because he's been awful, if he's been carrying a niggle then he needs to get it right

Even when not as his best, he's still a dangerous player and his physical presence still does help in the middle. In these sort of games he usually rises to the occasion.

 

[Mr Meow]

My calculus sees Carlton short of a KPD to partner with Weitering and at least one 'real' small forward who can kick a bag on a good day - these shortcomings are structural and cost plenty against better opponents.

The club is being engineered to be a regular finals team - the list is finally in a position where it can begin to actually develop younger players and the constantly not available due to injury this or that will be weeded out.

A flag or not is as much about luck as anything else - I think gone are the days of teams having player dominance or coaching dominance.

I'm enjoying watching Carlton play these days because they can match teh physicality of any team and also run out 4 quarters - something which one couldn't say about the team sicne I started watching AFL.

Spot on.

"Flag or bust" talk is for losers coping with their club being cellar dwellars or also-rans scraping finals.

Blues are contenders and will be for a few years yet, and that experience is exciting no matter what any trolls would have you believe. But the more interesting parts relate to "control/improve upon what you can" and that's where Voss comes in and why he was so angry, not about personnel but what the players who went out there did in certain aspects. I am pretty confident it will get rectified and the players returning will just be the cherry on top.

 

[BuildEmUp]

Although I've tipped Carlton in a nailbiter, the points raised about Collingwood punishing turnovers (when at their best) have merit and no doubt they'll have analysed how Geelong ripped the Blues to shreds on the counter.

If Collingwood bring their pressure game and swarm on the rebound they can cut holes in the Blues even without a set of dominant forwards. The issue is how do they cope with Carlton's twin towers, minus Murphy who was an important structural player?

JDG will be a barometer as usual. When he's on, the Pies are tough to stop. When he's quiet or ineffective, they struggle.

It's shaping up to be a beauty, either way.

well he is going to be quite innefective , sitting in the stands ..

 

[Mr Meow]

well he is going to be quite innefective , sitting in the stands ..

Yep, I probably need to start at least looking at the AFL website before a Thursday afternoon.

 

[JustaBattler]

Spot on.

"Flag or bust" talk is for losers coping with their club being cellar dwellars or also-rans scraping finals.

Blues are contenders and will be for a few years yet, and that experience is exciting no matter what any trolls would have you believe. But the more interesting parts relate to "control/improve upon what you can" and that's where Voss comes in and why he was so angry, not about personnel but what the players who went out there did in certain aspects. I am pretty confident it will get rectified and the players returning will just be the cherry on top.

Voss is under rated by most because he isn't Demosthenes

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Even when not as his best, he's still a dangerous player and his physical presence still does help in the middle. In these sort of games he usually rises to the occasion.

Yes of course we're weaker without him, probably our 2nd best player and certainly our best inside mid, but I'd rather he sit in the stands than play in a restricted manner and/or possibly aggravate a groin injury

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[Corn Cobbers]

Voss is under rated by most because he isn't Demosthenes

"While the ball is safe, whether down back or elsewhere, then is the time for ruckmen and flankers and everyone in his turn to show his zeal and to take care that it is not capsized by anyone's malice or inadvertence; but when the defence has been overwhelmed, zeal is useless."

[Voss, 21 August 2022]

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[CCurnow3votes]

I recognised that in my post. I recognised that Collingwood will punish Carlton from turnovers.

Even Essendon last week destroyed Collingwood in the midfield and Collingwood still drew purely based on their ability to score readily from turnovers.

The reason why I think Carlton should win is actually because of the Geelong game. Carlton should have won that game but kicked themselves out of it due to their inaccuracy. If Carlton were more accurate, then the ball goes back into the centre where Carlton destroyed Geelong all day. But because Carlton were wasteful inside 50, Geelong took the ball coast to coast and scored with a ridiculous efficiency. They lost to Adelaide exactly the same way.

Whilst Carlton may be wasteful forward of centre again, I don't anticipate it happening. Even moderate efficiency should see Carlton win IMO. I also don't anticipate for Collingwood to be as efficient as Geelong and Adelaide inside 50. That's why Carlton are favourites to win and I believe they will. Whether they actually win is another story.

Another reason why should win is…well…Essendon.

 

[Red_man2008]

I think so too. Voss isn't the type to let these things go and it was clear he was p***ed off at some of the defensive efforts. We may well be in for a more stodgy style of game rather than an end-to-end shootout for this one.

Since Voss became coach, Carlton have only conceded 100+ points 6 times. 2 of which have been in the last 3 rounds. He is definitely angry about it.

 

[GoPies1]

I like Dwayne Russells take on the game regarding pressure rating.
Carlton need to stop a 1-2 slide and Collingwood need to keep winning after a poor start.
But his kicker was Collingwood already have a flag in the bag and Carlton doesn’t, GOLD

 

[Juddernaut08]

interesting titch is now seen as a fringe player for the pies.

was probably a top 10 player in the league a few years ago and isnt that old.

 

[FireKrakouer]

I think Carlton will win by plenty. The core group of players who were the "glue" holding my pies together are largely now too old (or gone, in the case of Murphy and Adams). I just hope we do a Geelong and come back firing next year in the season after the premiership hangover.

If I'm wrong and the pies get up then I'll obviously be delighted. Both coaches will have been studying their team's weaknesses this week and trying to address them. Footy is a game of momentum and sometimes it only takes one or two players on a team to step up and make all the difference.

 

[Chief]

Everyone got their beans on Collingwood?

 

[Mr Meow]

Everyone got their beans on Collingwood?

View attachment 1977385

Losing your two best contested mids (imagine plugging JDG and Mitchell in, then removing Walsh and Cripps) counts for more than missing a few flankers of average-decent quality. The odds have adjusted accordingly. No Gov means little against Collingwood's KPF stocks.

 

[charred_fate]

Losing your two best contested mids (imagine plugging JDG and Mitchell in, then removing Walsh and Cripps) counts for more than missing a few flankers of average-decent quality. The odds have adjusted accordingly. No Gov means little against Collingwood's KPF stocks.

Including Mitchell in the group like he's still up there with JDG, Walsh and Cripps ... Andy Millman's catchphrase springs to mind.

 

[Mr Meow]

Including Mitchell in the group like he's still up there with JDG, Walsh and Cripps ... Andy Millman's catchphrase springs to mind.

Well I tried to explain this with Carlton's "missing" forwards last week. It's not the same as Geelong's missing theirs. I was told that was a stupid argument because they would still make the team better. Mitchell is halfway cooked but Collingwood minus two of their only players that could be considered "contested bull midfielders" are definitely weaker than Carlton without their missing forwards.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Losing your two best contested mids (imagine plugging JDG and Mitchell in, then removing Walsh and Cripps) counts for more than missing a few flankers of average-decent quality. The odds have adjusted accordingly. No Gov means little against Collingwood's KPF stocks.

Imagine losing two best mids?

Like Walsh & Cerra…Walsh has played 3 games out of 7, Cerra 2.

A few flankers of average-decent quality - AA form CHB McGovern & AA Rebounding HB Saad.

We won’t mention Martin, Motlop, Cunningham, Fogarty, Marchbank.

Let’s also not mention Docherty or Silvagni.

Poor old Collingwood for eeeevveeeer!

 

[Mr Meow]

Imagine losing two best mids?

Like Walsh & Cerra…Walsh has played 3 games out of 7, Cerra 2.

A few flankers of average-decent quality - AA form CHB McGovern & AA Rebounding HB Saad.

We won’t mention Martin, Motlop, Cunningham, Fogarty, Marchbank.

Let’s also not mention Docherty or Silvagni.

Poor old Collingwood for eeeevveeeer!

How many at the same time? For what it's worth, I rate Cripps above Cerra. So missing Cripps and Walsh at the same time (or Cerra and Walsh or Cripps at the same time) is what I'd consider seriously weakening the midfield, rather than something you can quite easily work around. Not every midfield is blessed with that depth.

Sorry to say but Gov hasn't been in AA form. He's been in Jack Henry form. Which is good but you can survive without a Jack Henry as long as you aren't also losing other quality talls at the same time (e.g Weitering).

Saad is A grade, not at defending but in offensive rebound.

The next 6 you mention, one is not in the picture this year and the other 5...meh. Minor loss of quality.

Collingwood stupidly throwing Adams away, having a Gov type absence (Murphy) AND their best two contested mids of course hurts them more. Their midfield will rely on Pendles and Crisp rolling back the clock, Lipinski rolling through there and maybe returning to the unsuccessful N.Daicos midfield experiment. They did not cope well with your two power forwards when they had Murphy, let alone without.

The odds are as they are for a reason. Collingwood are underdogs and Carlton should win with a bit to spare.