Opinion AFL Draft Lottery

[briztoon]

It's the ideal year to start a draft lottery. Not fair to base the pick order on last year when clubs like Melbourne could realistically have been back in the top 8 again, while someone like Essendon may have been on their way down.

The alternative is to combine the 2019 and 2020 ladders if we get a few more games in, so the order is based on the last 2 years of form.

As long as they set limits on what range of teams can get each pick, then I think it would be fine.

Pick 1 - Bottom 4
Pick 2 - Bottom 6
Pick 3 - Bottom 8

and so on. Also set a floor so if we get to, say, Pick 5 and Gold Coast still don't have a pick yet, then they automatically get Pick 5 and we move on

I believe Gold Coasts floor should be pick 2.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I believe Gold Coasts floor should be pick 2.

Normally I would agree, but last year's draft concessions were EXTREMELY generous, especially since they will be picking up Alex Davies (likely top 10 pick) as a free rookie this year. They shouldn't be needing yet another pick that early. Lukosius, Rankine, Rowell, Anderson, King, Budarick and Sharp, all within 2 years, is more talent than most teams would get in 5 years.

 

[perplexed]

It's the ideal year to start a draft lottery. Not fair to base the pick order on last year when clubs like Melbourne could realistically have been back in the top 8 again, while someone like Essendon may have been on their way down.

The alternative is to combine the 2019 and 2020 ladders if we get a few more games in, so the order is based on the last 2 years of form.

As long as they set limits on what range of teams can get each pick, then I think it would be fine.

Pick 1 - Bottom 4
Pick 2 - Bottom 6
Pick 3 - Bottom 8

and so on. Also set a floor so if we get to, say, Pick 5 and Gold Coast still don't have a pick yet, then they automatically get Pick 5 and we move on

If we need to have a lottery to help the afl promote itself and gambling in the off season let's have it over the draw. Who gets to play in primetime, or at the g.
The draft is about equalization, a lottery undermines this.

 

[briztoon]

Normally I would agree, but last year's draft concessions were EXTREMELY generous, especially since they will be picking up Alex Davies (likely top 10 pick) as a free rookie this year. They shouldn't be needing yet another pick that early. Lukosius, Rankine, Rowell, Anderson, King, Budarick and Sharp, all within 2 years, is more talent than most teams would get in 5 years.

So that’s a bias coming through.

Gold Coasts concessions should absolutely NOT come in to such an equation.

Honestly, GC’s floor should be pick 1.

But you never know, Carlton could revert to form and fall off a cliff again.

Or Essendon might not have their Irish return, and end up with 30 listed players on the injury list.

 

[Wayne Swan]

No lottery, we have adopted too much USA wank stuff already.

If they get a season away this year, there's your draft order, if they don't, use the 2019 order.

But here is the once off opportunity for the AFL to skip a year and push the draft age out to 19 so the draft year isn't compromised by final year of schooling, school footy commitments and allows draftees to be more physically ready and mentally mature when they're drafted. The AFL shouldn't miss this opportunity to change a whole heap of things about the way the game is run for the better.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Can you clarify where “entitled“ comes from, and in what context.

And how the northern clubs are obtaining these elite interstate players.

You're saying that northern clubs could be stripped of their talent due to rule changes but can you say why northern clubs should have elite interstate talent in the first place?

Rule changes don't force players to if northern clubs can't retain the players they draft why isn't it their fault?

 

[Pykie]

Normally I would agree, but last year's draft concessions were EXTREMELY generous, especially since they will be picking up Alex Davies (likely top 10 pick) as a free rookie this year. They shouldn't be needing yet another pick that early. Lukosius, Rankine, Rowell, Anderson, King, Budarick and Sharp, all within 2 years, is more talent than most teams would get in 5 years.

Not to mention the fact they essentially rendered their mid first round concession pick this year completely dispensable.

I would split it into bottom 4, then the next 6, then the top 8. In separate lotto's.

At worst the bottom 4 get pick #4. At worst 14th-9th get #10.

I wouldn't object to a weighted 10 & 8 split either however.

If it was implemented permanently it would be interesting how it effected the percieved value of future picks. Some may view it as diluting them, as the lotto could potentially push a team you have have predicted finish near the bottom of the bottom 10 out to potentially #10, but at the same time, if you view a team as a potential bottom 4 side, you may be trading for the future #1 pick, with some luck.

 

[briztoon]

You're saying that northern clubs could be stripped of their talent due to rule changes but can you say why northern clubs should have elite interstate talent in the first place?

Rule changes don't force players to if northern clubs can't retain the players they draft why isn't it their fault?

Equalisation.

There should be no talk of “interstate teams”.

This a national competition. Not a Vic versus the outsiders/interlopers competition.

Trouble is most VFL fans have trouble reconciling to this notion.

There should be one uncompromised draft pool.

No father son, no nga, no northern academies.

The AFL should come down hard on this.

I don’t get to keep my job and go home for compassionate reasons, like being homesick.

If a player wants a trade, then the team losing the player should be able to make the best deal possible.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Equalisation.

There should be no talk of “interstate teams”.

This a national competition. Not a Vic versus the outsiders/interlopers competition.

Trouble is most VFL fans have trouble reconciling to this notion.

There should be one uncompromised draft pool.

No father son, no nga, no northern academies.

The AFL should come down hard on this.

I don’t get to keep my job and go home for compassionate reasons, like being homesick.

If a player wants a trade, then the team losing the player should be able to make the best deal possible.

It's not always as simple as that.
For example at the time, Freo seemingly got a great deal for Lachie Neale, but they blew a lot of it by on trading the juicy picks to Melbourne for Jesse Hogan, and Neale had the audacity to have a career best and brownlow like season with The Lions.

 

[briztoon]

It's not always as simple as that.
For example at the time, Freo seemingly got a great deal for Lachie Neale, but they blew a lot of it by on trading the juicy picks to Melbourne for Jesse Hogan, and Neale had the audacity to have a career best and brownlow like season with The Lions.

I don’t see your point.

Fremantle got the deal they wanted from the Lions. What happened after that has no bearing on that particular deal.

 

[Blackas87]

Scrap the draft all together, the kids should take the best contract offers they can get.

with list sizes going down and the salary cap the top clubs won’t be stock piling unproven talent.

The draft only allows bottom clubs to select one 18 year old before the premiers do, makes it so hard to catch up, it slows the rebuilding process down.

one talented player a year unless you trade a best 22 player out, therefore weakening your side.

Clubs need to make there club attractive for young players wanting to join and offer good contracts to them.

 

[Smythe]

Scrap the draft all together, the kids should take the best contract offers they can get.

with list sizes going down and the salary cap the top clubs won’t be stock piling unproven talent.

The draft only allows bottom clubs to select one 18 year old before the premiers do, makes it so hard to catch up, it slows the rebuilding process down.

one talented player a year unless you trade a best 22 player out, therefore weakening your side.

Clubs need to make there club attractive for young players wanting to join and offer good contracts to them.

Your argument is null and void. unless all players under the age of 18 are exactly the same height and weight and talent, of which they are not. So having a bottom team getting the best (in not only their, but most peoples eyes) under 18 kid (#1 pick averages 238.3 games career) as compared to the premiers getting the 18th best talented kid (#18 pick averages 112 game career) or 19th best, (depending on other compensations to clubs) is a great way to do the draft. there would be arguably 17/18 kids rated better than them. most teams would fold if we did it your way. use 2019 for example....no kid would WANT to go to gold coast (18th) lets say for arguments sake for a contract worth $150k per year if richmond (1st) offered them $120k per year. every single kid would go to richmond at the moment in a heart beat, gold coast would eventually fold. as would many clubs at the bottom of the ladder if no one wants to play for celler dwellers which they would be if all the good kids went to the top teams with the money and enticement of success.

 

[Blackas87]

Your argument is null and void. unless all players under the age of 18 are exactly the same height and weight and talent, of which they are not. So having a bottom team getting the best (in not only their, but most peoples eyes) under 18 kid as compared to the premiers getting the 18th/19th best talented kid (depending on other compensations to clubs) is a great way to do the draft. there would be arguably 17/18 kids rated better than them. most teams would fold if we did it your way. use 2019 for example....no kid would WANT to go to gold coast (18th) lets say for arguments sake for a contract worth $150k per year if richmond (1st) offered them $120k per year. every single kid would go to richmond at the moment in a heart beat, gold coast would eventually fold. as would many clubs at the bottom of the ladder if no one wants to play for celler dwellers which they would be if all the good kids went to the top teams with the money and enticement of success.

Gold Coast can offer a lot more than $150k compared to Richmond, Richmond will be paying for players at the height of their careers, Gold Coast need to sell their club to players and pay for the future. Get players to their club that agree to go there. There are list sizes, Richmond can’t have every kid, and if list sizes

Gold Coast selecting random kids that never agreed to go there has not worked for them for 10 years. The draft has not worked for the Gold Coast.

 

[Smythe]

Gold Coast can offer a lot more than $150k compared to Richmond, Richmond will be paying for players at the height of their careers, Gold Coast need to sell their club to players and pay for the future. Get players to their club that agree to go there. There are list sizes, Richmond can’t have every kid, and if list sizes

Gold Coast selecting random kids that never agreed to go there has not worked for them for 10 years. The draft has not worked for the Gold Coast.

That would be the recruiting team and football departments fault, not the draft. there are probably 10-15 other areas that are at fault there and at no stage can the draft be blamed, every other club picked in those drafts. gold coast and Richmond were examples i was using as they finished 18th and 1st respectively, and you are correct, Richmond or whoever the premiers/top clubs are cannot have every kid, but guaranteed 80-90% of the next and probably last 20 years number one picks would rather sign with the premiership team than the bottom team. you would get kids that are just after money and have no care for the team or team mates or you would get kids that dont believe they are good enough to make it elsewhere so they go there trying to get games. your argument would kill off teams, it just does not compute. 98% of kids drafted are not from the gold coast area, therefore you would be very hard pressed to find many if any that would want to go there if they were not drafted their. it is about player welfare, player development, player retention, contract organization, living arrangements, family life, time for friends, team relationships, team bonding, coaching staff, fitness staff, list management. gold coast have been bad at the management of their entire club which flowed onto the field, they have and are turning it around and will be ok in time

 

[Blackas87]

That would be the recruiting team and football departments fault, not the draft. there are probably 10-15 other areas that are at fault there and at no stage can the draft be blamed, every other club picked in those drafts. gold coast and Richmond were examples i was using as they finished 18th and 1st respectively, and you are correct, Richmond or whoever the premiers/top clubs are cannot have every kid, but guaranteed 80-90% of the next and probably last 20 years number one picks would rather sign with the premiership team than the bottom team. you would get kids that are just after money and have no care for the team or team mates or you would get kids that dont believe they are good enough to make it elsewhere so they go there trying to get games. your argument would kill off teams, it just does not compute. 98% of kids drafted are not from the gold coast area, therefore you would be very hard pressed to find many if any that would want to go there if they were not drafted their. it is about player welfare, player development, player retention, contract organization, living arrangements, family life, time for friends, team relationships, team bonding, coaching staff, fitness staff, list management. gold coast have been bad at the management of their entire club which flowed onto the field, they have and are turning it around and will be ok in time

Of course number 1 picks would rather go to a contender than a bottom team, especially when they get paid the same 2 year contract.

If a club has terrible development why would a top talent want to go there and ruin there careers?

clubs need to sell them their club to players, get good development coaches ect.. Sell the future of the club to players. A bottom club could sign 5 top 20 talents in one year (currently takes 5 years to do that) that have all been sold the future and agree to play together, and get a good contract to go there. Build a club up with guys your own age or go to a contender that you might not get a game at.

As for the Gold Coast, I lived there in 2017, down near Coolangatta, it’s an amazing area, plenty of people would want to live there, not everyone but plenty of young guys would love that lifestyle. get the players that want to live there, that’s what Suns need to do, sell the the club, sell the area.

The NRL and A-league don’t have drafts, I don’t know why people think the AFL needs one.

 

[briztoon]

Of course number 1 picks would rather go to a contender than a bottom team, especially when they get paid the same 2 year contract.

If a club has terrible development why would a top talent want to go there and ruin there careers?

clubs need to sell them their club to players, get good development coaches ect.. Sell the future of the club to players. A bottom club could sign 5 top 20 talents in one year (currently takes 5 years to do that) that have all been sold the future and agree to play together, and get a good contract to go there. Build a club up with guys your own age or go to a contender that you might not get a game at.

As for the Gold Coast, I lived there in 2017, down near Coolangatta, it’s an amazing area, plenty of people would want to live there, not everyone but plenty of young guys would love that lifestyle. get the players that want to live there, that’s what Suns need to do, sell the the club, sell the area.

The NRL and A-league don’t have drafts, I don’t know why people think the AFL needs one.

Research the NRL’s talent pathways.

If the AFL had similar, then Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide and West Coast would be forever at the top.

The QLD and NSW teams would be rooted to the bottom, with teams like Melbourne, North and St Kilda just above them.

 

[Blackas87]

Research the NRL’s talent pathways.

If the AFL had similar, then Collingwood, Hawthorn, Adelaide and West Coast would be forever at the top.

The QLD and NSW teams would be rooted to the bottom, with teams like Melbourne, North and St Kilda just above them.

The NRL has academics, similar to AFL’s Qld and NSW clubs, except AFL clubs need to use “draft points” to select their academy player.

Those clubs would not be forever at the top, salary caps prevent teams signing all the talent along with list sizes.

a team at the would be tight on the salary cap paying for experienced players, they won’t be able to spend big money on untried talent.
If a kid had a choice of signing a $200k 2 year deal at Richmond or a $1.2 million 4 year deal at St Kilda where do you think he’ll more likely go?

 

[briztoon]

The NRL has academics, similar to AFL’s Qld and NSW clubs, except AFL clubs need to use “draft points” to select their academy player.

Those clubs would not be forever at the top, salary caps prevent teams signing all the talent along with list sizes.

a team at the would be tight on the salary cap paying for experienced players, they won’t be able to spend big money on untried talent.
If a kid had a choice of signing a $200k 2 year deal at Richmond or a $1.2 million 4 year deal at St Kilda where do you think he’ll more likely go?

They’re not academies.

And it hasn’t stopped Melbourne and the Broncos being amongst the top teams for 20+ years.

Or teams like Souths and Sydney from rebuilding in two years (which the Broncos just did for the first time in 20 years).

All junior clubs are tied to an NRL club. The junior clubs then funnel the top talent in to each clubs U21 team.

Rich clubs like the Broncos pay talented juniors as young as 14 and 15, bonuses to stay aligned to the Broncos. I’ve personally heard of $10k and $15k payments to juniors.

Then the U21’s are on contracts.

Collingwood might not be able to sign every talented kid, but they will be able to sign the best one or two Victorian kids each year. These are kids who would genuinely be in Collingwood’s best 26 players.

Hawthorn, Richmond and Carlton would be the same.

And teams like Collingwood and Hawthorn can arrange significant third party deals for their players, that the lesser Melbourne clubs can’t

 

[Mr north man]

Of course number 1 picks would rather go to a contender than a bottom team, especially when they get paid the same 2 year contract.

If a club has terrible development why would a top talent want to go there and ruin there careers?

clubs need to sell them their club to players, get good development coaches ect.. Sell the future of the club to players. A bottom club could sign 5 top 20 talents in one year (currently takes 5 years to do that) that have all been sold the future and agree to play together, and get a good contract to go there. Build a club up with guys your own age or go to a contender that you might not get a game at.

As for the Gold Coast, I lived there in 2017, down near Coolangatta, it’s an amazing area, plenty of people would want to live there, not everyone but plenty of young guys would love that lifestyle. get the players that want to live there, that’s what Suns need to do, sell the the club, sell the area.

The NRL and A-league don’t have drafts, I don’t know why people think the AFL needs one.

Well at least your club won’t have worry about being a contender you can show all potential draftees your interactive hall of shame with the photos of your great gains of the past Watts,Scully and Trengrove .
Then at the end of the tour the potential draftee can get to press the Magic button when the supporters cheer C’mon Dees we need to keep losing to get priority picks and 1st round draft picks.
BTW: How are Watts,Scully and Trengrove going getting plenty of possessions.

 

[Peel67skin]

Gold Coast can offer a lot more than $150k compared to Richmond, Richmond will be paying for players at the height of their careers, Gold Coast need to sell their club to players and pay for the future. Get players to their club that agree to go there. There are list sizes, Richmond can’t have every kid, and if list sizes

Gold Coast selecting random kids that never agreed to go there has not worked for them for 10 years. The draft has not worked for the Gold Coast.

Melbourne doing pretty well with more than 10 years history. The founder of tanking.

 

[briztoon]

Well at least your club won’t have worry about being a contender you can show all potential draftees your interactive hall of shame with the photos of your great gains of the past Watts,Scully and Trengrove .
Then at the end of the tour the potential draftee can get to press the Magic button when the supporters cheer C’mon Dees we need to keep losing to get priority picks and 1st round draft picks.
BTW: How are Watts,Scully and Trengrove going getting plenty of possessions.

Really. North are poking another bottom VFL team about ineptitude.

The view from outside of the VFL bubble is that there’s very little separating North and Melbourne.

You might like sticking it your traditional rival, but to most other clubs, you’re the mirror image of each other.

 

[Blackas87]

They’re not academies.

And it hasn’t stopped Melbourne and the Broncos being amongst the top teams for 20+ years.

Or teams like Souths and Sydney from rebuilding in two years (which the Broncos just did for the first time in 20 years).

All junior clubs are tied to an NRL club. The junior clubs then funnel the top talent in to each clubs U21 team.

Rich clubs like the Broncos pay talented juniors as young as 14 and 15, bonuses to stay aligned to the Broncos. I’ve personally heard of $10k and $15k payments to juniors.

Then the U21’s are on contracts.

Collingwood might not be able to sign every talented kid, but they will be able to sign the best one or two Victorian kids each year. These are kids who would genuinely be in Collingwood’s best 26 players.

Hawthorn, Richmond and Carlton would be the same.

And teams like Collingwood and Hawthorn can arrange significant third party deals for their players, that the lesser Melbourne clubs can’t

Melbourne Storm aren’t in League heartland, they consistently bring in below average players at other clubs and turn them into quality players. A well run organisation, they are what AFL should be looking at coming.

The Broncos last won in 2006, since then 7 clubs have won the NRL title, and if you count the Broncos win and the 3 years before that, then that’s 11 clubs winning the NRL premiership in 17 years, or 12 clubs since 2000.

The draft isn’t exactly correct, you can’t say Collingwood would sign the best 2 talents every year, how often does the best 2 talents turn out to be the best 2 players.

I disagree with this theory mode as well, teams that are contenders usually have most of their players playing in there prime years age 25-29. Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt, Rance, Grimes ect... Couldn’t get a finals win with these guys until they hit there primes. They would not be able to offer big money contracts compared to lower clubs with salary cap room.

As for 3rd party salaries, isn’t the league rule 15% of the players salary? Meaning a player on $100k can only get $15k from a 3rd party? They’d make more money signing a $250k deal without 3rd parties. 3rd party deals are usually sponsors wanting players working for them promoting their business. Every club has sponsors, and they usually want known stars not unknown 18 year olds.

 

[Blackas87]

Well at least your club won’t have worry about being a contender you can show all potential draftees your interactive hall of shame with the photos of your great gains of the past Watts,Scully and Trengrove .
Then at the end of the tour the potential draftee can get to press the Magic button when the supporters cheer C’mon Dees we need to keep losing to get priority picks and 1st round draft picks.
BTW: How are Watts,Scully and Trengrove going getting plenty of possessions.

I honestly have no idea what you’re on about.

 

[Mego Red]

Really. North are poking another bottom VFL team about ineptitude.

The view from outside of the VFL bubble is that there’s very little separating North and Melbourne.

You might like sticking it your traditional rival, but to most other clubs, you’re the mirror image of each other.

Ah, Melbourne seem like a bigger club but somehow have been a bit less competent. Your point remains, though.

 

[Blackas87]

Melbourne doing pretty well with more than 10 years history. The founder of tanking.

Exactly my point, the draft didn’t help Melbourne, the draft rewards losing.