Opinion AFL Draft Lottery

[Taylor]

No minimum cap spend would do more for retention.

Let them pay 60% of their cap, buy their gun players.

 

[briztoon]

As long as the system gives worse teams priority access to talent (which it should), there will always be an incentive to go to the draft when you're rebuilding. Best to learn to make peace with that imo.

lol picks the one team that openly admitted to tanking, to rebuild.

 

[briztoon]

Thinking in particular about Jacob Weitering, who seems to have become a shadow of the player he promised to be, I was wondering whether it is time to introduce an AFL draft lottery. This means that the number one ranked player does not necessarily go to the worst team. It would also remove the temptation to tank for the number one pick. It's almost the case where you would not want to be the number one pick. Fans of the particular club almost see them as a saviour. It places a huge burden on the shoulders of young players and means that the likelihood is that you have to play for a shit side for a large part of your career. My suggestion would be a lottery amongst the teams that didn't make the finals, then the teams that did make the finals receive a pick in reverse order to where they finished in the finals(so last year Essendon would have picked first, Port second etc). Imagine if Richmond had received the first pick in 2016. That player would have gone on to be a part of a premiership side in his first year, rather than be stuck languishing in a shit side for years.

So you want to keep the worse 6 teams down for good?

While continually restocking the mediocre teams with elite talent.

The top 14 teams would never bottom out. Instead they would remain in their own cycle of adding elite talent much faster, and climb the ladder again.

 

[Since 2001]

As long as the system gives worse teams priority access to talent (which it should), there will always be an incentive to go to the draft when you're rebuilding. Best to learn to make peace with that imo.

This wrong on so many levels!!

Fultz has actually done nothing. Now lets look at how many top picks they've had:

2013: Noel pick 6 no longer there Michael Carter-Williams pick 11 no longer there
2014: Embiid pick 3 and Saric pick 12 were successful. However took embed 2 1/2 years to actually play and saric 2 years to come from Croatia
2015: Okafor pick 3 no longer there
2016: Simmons is a gun
2017: Fultz has been more of a mess than anything.

so in the span of 5 years 3 haven't worked 3 have and 1 has had a terrible season by changing his shot ect.

 

[briztoon]

Free agency and greater player movement is not about equalisation. It’s about making the Vic teams strong again, and to a lesser extent the SA and WA clubs, while stripping the Northern clubs of elite talent.

GWS saw it for what it was, and leveraged their early draft picks and players, and continue to do so, to continually trade in high picks each year, to stockpile more talent.

 

[briztoon]

This wrong on so many levels!!

Fultz has actually done nothing. Now lets look at how many top picks they've had:

2013: Noel pick 6 no longer there Michael Carter-Williams pick 11 no longer there
2014: Embiid pick 3 and Saric pick 12 were successful. However took embed 2 1/2 years to actually play and saric 2 years to come from Croatia
2015: Okafor pick 3 no longer there
2016: Simmons is a gun
2017: Fultz has been more of a mess than anything.

so in the span of 5 years 3 haven't worked 3 have and 1 has had a terrible season by changing his shot ect.

You need to look deeper at Hinkies moves, and his long term strategy.

Hinkie was always about drafting the best talent, and leveraging it to obtain better talent, or optionality.

MCW got us this years Lakers pick, while MCW is now a fringe player.

Hinkie’s only big mistake was Oakafor.

Otherwise most of his moves were gold. Especially the Kings swindle.

And... Hinkie died for our sins.

 

[The Joker]

Brisbane. 7. 3 in the last 3 years, 2015 pick 2 (Schache), 2016 pick 3 (McCluggage), 2017 pick 1 (Rayner).

Before that,
Pick 5 2010, Polec
Pick 4 2006, Luenberger
Pick 2 2002, Brennan
Pick 1 1998, Headland

Compare them to Freo
98 - Longmuir
99 - Hasleby and Pavlich
01 - With Hodge and Judd gone, we took Polak
08 - SHill
09 - Morabito
17 - Brayshaw and Cerra

The point is, it has to be more than just 'recruiting the wrong player' all the time!

 

[The Joker]

So you want to keep the worse 6 teams down for good?

While continually restocking the mediocre teams with elite talent.

The top 14 teams would never bottom out. Instead they would remain in their own cycle of adding elite talent much faster, and climb the ladder again.

Yeah, we can have our own style of EPL!!!

 

[Andronicus]

Free agency and greater player movement is not about equalisation. It’s about making the Vic teams strong again, and to a lesser extent the SA and WA clubs, while stripping the Northern clubs of elite talent.

GWS saw it for what it was, and leveraged their early draft picks and players, and continue to do so, to continually trade in high picks each year, to stockpile more talent.

Brilliant.

 

[wizzard400]

#TrustTheProcess

 

[Savage Kent]

I think a draft lottery should be considered if the AFL go down the path of changing the fixture to a 17-5 model, where after the conclusion of round 17 teams are divided into top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6 conferences.

The lottery could apply to the bottom 6 teams, with the top 6 picks in the draft determined by a lottery. Like the NBA, there is a weighting which increases the probability of the lower placed teams drawing pick 1. The incentive for finishing on top of the bottom 6 conference is additional weighting provided, therefore giving this team a better chance of drawing pick 1. This approach would give balance to ensuring bottom teams the strong likelihood of still getting their hands on pick 1-2 while also incentivising teams which have had a bad season to continue trying until the conclusion of the H&A season.

Additionally, given the AFL do everything in their power to continue exposure well into the off season, the lottery would create a lot of anticipation and media interest.

 

[Mitchell54]

Most of the players picked at #1 have become great players with obviously the more recent ones yet to prove their quality or simply arent great. None of the below are terrible players. They have all to date been serviceable players with Watts being the worst of the lot so far. Some teams are capable of sniffing out the quality players. Carlton have done well with their picks as Krooz, Murphy & Gibbs being their big 3 players for the past while with Weitering yet to prove as he has faded away a bit.
2000-2003 was some #1 gold with 3 club legends and an elite player in Goddard.

#1 picks are pretty good but sometimes they're no the best player of the lot. The best player of the year often resides in the top 10 as it should be.


Bolded players = Proven quality

2000 - Nick Riewoldt - St Kilda

2001 - Luke Hodge - Hawthorn*

2002 - Brendon Goddard - St Kilda*

2003 - Adam Cooney - Western Bulldogs

2004 - Brett Deledio - Richmond*

2005 - Marc Murphy - Carlton*

2006 - Bryce Gibbs - Carlton*

2007 - Mathew Kruezer - Carlton*

2008 - Jack Watts - Melbourne*

2009 - Tom Scully - Melbourne*

2010 - David Swallow - Gold Coast*

2011 - Johnathon Patton - GWS*

2012 - Lachie Whitfield - GWS*

2013 - Tom Boyd - GWS*

2014 - Patrick McCartin - St Kilda*

2015 - Jacob Weitering - Carlton*

2016 - Andrew McGrath - Essendon*

2017 - Cameron Rayner - Brisbane*

P.S Don't really know how good D.Swallow is as I don't know too much about Gold Coast.

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Thinking in particular about Jacob Weitering, who seems to have become a shadow of the player he promised to be, I was wondering whether it is time to introduce an AFL draft lottery.

It isn't.

What does time have to do with it?

It's either a good idea or it isn't. The argument that "it's time" makes no sense.

At 7pm, it's time for my dinner. How can it be time for a draft lottery?

This means that the number one ranked player does not necessarily go to the worst team.

Thus negating the most important function of the draft. Bravo.

The worst performed team must get the best access to young talent. End of. Any new-fangled system that doesn't deliver this defeats the purpose.

 

[Wild Bill]

Thinking in particular about Jacob Weitering, who seems to have become a shadow of the player he promised to be, I was wondering whether it is time to introduce an AFL draft lottery. This means that the number one ranked player does not necessarily go to the worst team. It would also remove the temptation to tank for the number one pick. It's almost the case where you would not want to be the number one pick. Fans of the particular club almost see them as a saviour. It places a huge burden on the shoulders of young players and means that the likelihood is that you have to play for a shit side for a large part of your career. My suggestion would be a lottery amongst the teams that didn't make the finals, then the teams that did make the finals receive a pick in reverse order to where they finished in the finals(so last year Essendon would have picked first, Port second etc). Imagine if Richmond had received the first pick in 2016. That player would have gone on to be a part of a premiership side in his first year, rather than be stuck languishing in a shit side for years.

Not sure tanking is really much of an issue any more. We lose to Bris in round 23 last year we would have had 1. Most clubs know a winning culture is worth more than a better pick. Tanking hasn’t worked in the past.

If ess finish last (big chance) then you should get pick 1. Even though they will be stuck in a shit side for years to come. End of the day they only have to stay at ess for 2 years before the option to flee opens up.

 

[CheapCharlie]

Give the bottom 3 clubs two first round picks each

 

[briztoon]

Give the bottom 3 clubs two first round picks each

As a recent, perennial bottom 3 club, not sure even I’d agree with that. And I’m a known draft junky on the Lions board.

 

[Turbocat]

As a recent, perennial bottom 3 club, not sure even I’d agree with that. And I’m a known draft junky on the Lions board.

Any change to a lottery should look at the amount of time a club has been out of finals participation.. maybe 1 ball for each year out of the finals.. the thing to remember is teams that have been out of contention for years are the ones who need help not just one club having 1 bad year.

 

[eastfreo75]

Lottery would just be another thing for the AFL to control.

 

[briztoon]

Any change to a lottery should look at the amount of time a club has been out of finals participation.. maybe 1 ball for each year out of the finals.. the thing to remember is teams that have been out of contention for years are the ones who need help not just one club having 1 bad year.

What lottery?

As a long, long, long time NBA follower, I do not want a lottery any where near the AFL draft.

 

[Turbocat]

What lottery?

As a long, long, long time NBA follower, I do not want a lottery any where near the AFL draft.

It is the OP is it not?

 

[Gold Rocks]

Thinking in particular about Jacob Weitering, who seems to have become a shadow of the player he promised to be, I was wondering whether it is time to introduce an AFL draft lottery. This means that the number one ranked player does not necessarily go to the worst team. It would also remove the temptation to tank for the number one pick. It's almost the case where you would not want to be the number one pick. Fans of the particular club almost see them as a saviour. It places a huge burden on the shoulders of young players and means that the likelihood is that you have to play for a shit side for a large part of your career. My suggestion would be a lottery amongst the teams that didn't make the finals, then the teams that did make the finals receive a pick in reverse order to where they finished in the finals(so last year Essendon would have picked first, Port second etc). Imagine if Richmond had received the first pick in 2016. That player would have gone on to be a part of a premiership side in his first year, rather than be stuck languishing in a shit side for years.

This could be the year

 

[Heaps of fun]

Free agency and greater player movement is not about equalisation. It’s about making the Vic teams strong again, and to a lesser extent the SA and WA clubs, while stripping the Northern clubs of elite talent.

GWS saw it for what it was, and leveraged their early draft picks and players, and continue to do so, to continually trade in high picks each year, to stockpile more talent.

Serious question: why do you think northern clubs are entitled to have elite interstate players?

 

[briztoon]

Serious question: why do you think northern clubs are entitled to have elite interstate players?

Can you clarify where “entitled“ comes from, and in what context.

And how the northern clubs are obtaining these elite interstate players.

 

[Virgin Dog]

This could be the year

It's the ideal year to start a draft lottery. Not fair to base the pick order on last year when clubs like Melbourne could realistically have been back in the top 8 again, while someone like Essendon may have been on their way down.

The alternative is to combine the 2019 and 2020 ladders if we get a few more games in, so the order is based on the last 2 years of form.

As long as they set limits on what range of teams can get each pick, then I think it would be fine.

Pick 1 - Bottom 4
Pick 2 - Bottom 6
Pick 3 - Bottom 8

and so on. Also set a floor so if we get to, say, Pick 5 and Gold Coast still don't have a pick yet, then they automatically get Pick 5 and we move on