AFL - first week of finals

[Rooster Cogburn]

I took the 19.5 points on offer earlier in the week for 3.5 units, it's the first time I've confidently taken Sydney in a while.

I reckon they're a great chance this weekend, and think the $3+ is a good price.

 

[Rourke]

Re: High-Low double (week 1 finals)

Swans for the lowest. Saints will choke them to death and win.

After reading this startling pearl of wisdom, just for giggles I've slapped a tenner on Sydney to get the highest score of the week ($34 everywhere). I have them almost 50/50 to beat the Saints, and it's the only game under a roof on a very wintry weekend. Three weeks ago they scored 33 times against the Saints, and the next week St Kilda's game had 70 scoring shots total. Only Geelong has kept Sydney below 29 scoring shots in a win since Round 10.

Once a team realises its season is over and drops its collective head, anything can happen.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I would take the 19.5 but there is no way I could back them at $3, they will be within 3 goals most of the game, but there is a huge difference between getting within 3 goals of StKilda and actually beating them.

 

[denitofinito]

I would take the 19.5 but there is no way I could back them at $3, they will be within 3 goals most of the game, but there is a huge difference between getting within 3 goals of StKilda and actually beating them.

Obviously, you were willing to lay them at $6!

 

[KardiniaPark]

Obviously, you were willing to lay them at $6!

<<<King of the overstatement.

I think anything under 3.50 is unders. Anything at 3.50-4.00 is about right IMO.

Roosty is still clicking refresh on betfair waiting for that $6 I think

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Come at me brah

 

[Lensen]

Most goals bets.

0.5 units S.Johnson @ $8.50 (Sportsbet, $7.53)

0.5 units Nicoski @ $13 (Centrbet, $10.16)

0.19 units Goodes @ $15 (TAB, $14.42)
0.09 units McVeigh @ $34 (Sportsbet, $22.83)
0.09 units Reid @ $34 (Centrebet, $22.83)
0.07 units Bolton @ $34 (Centrebet, $27.40)
0.07 units Roberts-Thomson @ $34 (Centrebet, $30.44)

 

[KardiniaPark]

I understand that when you have someone marked at $7.50 and they are $8.50 its value, but if I marked a horse at $30 and it was $34 I wouldnt see that as overs at all, I would want $45. It just seems like LRT and Goodes are the right odds (compared to what you think they should be)

*You might be waiting a while Rooster

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

You can't pick and choose with a price model though, they're either overs or not.

 

[Donkson]

So would you take a 0.5% edge?

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Well I'm a terrible gambler, so probably.

 

[Lensen]

I understand that when you have someone marked at $7.50 and they are $8.50 its value, but if I marked a horse at $30 and it was $34 I wouldnt see that as overs at all, I would want $45. It just seems like LRT and Goodes are the right odds (compared to what you think they should be)

*You might be waiting a while Rooster

well when. working out the "most" overs its percentage based not dollar based. my markets are also set between 80-90% so I consider anything above my marked price as value - albeit not super great value if its a small edge

 

[denitofinito]

Save your money on the LRT mgs, he comes in for Grundy and will play as a defender on Kozi. Swans have White, Reid, Goodes and Spangher up forward.

 

[Bloods]

Save your money on the LRT mgs, he comes in for Grundy and will play as a defender on Kozi. Swans have White, Reid, Goodes and Spangher up forward.

Was about to say the same thing.

 

[KardiniaPark]

well when. working out the "most" overs its percentage based not dollar based. my markets are also set between 80-90% so I consider anything above my marked price as value - albeit not super great value if its a small edge

I assumed it was 100%, that makes more sense.

 

[twarby]

Swans get it done KP, learn to cap

 

[unclechopchop2]

What are people's thoughts on tonights game being a low scoring affair?
Personally i think the under 171.5 on offer looks pretty good in what should be an armwrestle.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think Selwood looks the pick in the Group of 8 DT @ $4.20. Averages +20 against Hawthorn and has averaged 120 against them this year. Wet weather...who knows even a couple of tackles slip high and he might get a few free kicks

*Now I just wait until Twarby tells me I am completely wrong.

 

[twarby]

all the stats point to Selwood

 

[Butler]

What are people's thoughts on tonights game being a low scoring affair?
Personally i think the under 171.5 on offer looks pretty good in what should be an armwrestle.

I just chucked a unit on that about 30 seconds ago. Also put a unit on Geelong more behinds than goals so i'm hoping for a wet one.

Need Hawks to get up tonight or within 6.5 points for my two multis.

Other bets are 0.5 on Rioli FGS, 0.5 on Rioli Most goals and 1 on Selwood most disposals group 1.

 

[bruceharmes]

What are people's thoughts on tonights game being a low scoring affair?
Personally i think the under 171.5 on offer looks pretty good in what should be an armwrestle.

Tab are offering 165.5 - I think it might go over given the geelong game last week and haw can score a bit too !

 

[KardiniaPark]

all the stats point to Selwood

Well blow me down.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Save your money on the LRT mgs, he comes in for Grundy and will play as a defender on Kozi. Swans have White, Reid, Goodes and Spangher up forward.

I think they had LRT starting at HF or FF last night on AFL Teams, and same on the AFL site. Have you read differently?

 

[Ferris_rules]

Has to be one of the most fascinating rounds for the year.

Come around 5pm Sunday, we shall know a little more about the premier!

Going with what I felt from day 1 of this week, Cats,Pies, Saints and Blues.

Swans and Dons at the line are value.

 

[twarby]

I think they had LRT starting at HF or FF last night on AFL Teams, and same on the AFL site. Have you read differently?

team lists mean **** all, and you know that