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- #176
Im surprised you didnt consider the Pies 40> margin!
Less risk of exposing your bank and greater reward, from memory it was paying about $2.85
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AFL - first week of finals
- Thread starter IDIG
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Im surprised you didnt consider the Pies 40> margin!
Less risk of exposing your bank and greater reward, from memory it was paying about $2.85
- Banned
- #177
Well done guys, but surely these exotics dont pay off in the long run?
But nevertheless well done!
Oh and I did have a look at Milne 1st goalscorer at $7 today.....
No bet for me.
I am considering the Pies -30.5 and Swans +30.5 line bets multi ~$3
DESTRUCTOR
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This is finals time and anything does and can happen.
If you told me the Cats would lose Menzel in the 2nd qtr I would have been very nervous.
Geez an injury to say Watson or Judd swings the entire momentum upside down.
I think form counts for a lot, bar the Dogs game - aberration and R24 a meaningless game, Blues have not lost to a team outside the top 4.
With that said I am going with previous proven experience - Blues beating the Dons at the G about 6 weeks ago!
Blues for me. Then again I could be wrong.
Whats your thoughts and read on it ?
Did you consider the line for the Dons? I am only for hedging purposes.
Today it wouldnt surprise me to see the Pies win by 40>
The Cats last night should have won that game by 10 goals IMO.
With that said the Hawks could have put the game out of the Cats reach in the first qtr.
I'm thinking along the same lines. I'm expecting the blues to win it, but with how the dons have played this year I have no idea what rabbit they'll pull out of the hat, a dead rotting corpse that springs to life in the last five minutes, or the rabbit spawn of wolverines night with roger rabbits sister that tears everything in sight to shreds. I should be hoping the blues win because I have placed a few bets on them, but deep down I'm hoping the dons pull it off just because I hate Carlton. But I guess their demise can wait to next week when I bet against them.
I hope the Pies win by 40, it keeps my line multi alive. WC don't perform too well over here, nor against the pies who've got Maxwell, Davies and Shaw back. And don't want to perform like last week. Plus don't WC get a home final next week if they lose this match? If that's the case I'm not sure they have a huge incentive to win.
- Banned
- #179
I'm thinking along the same lines. I'm expecting the blues to win it, but with how the dons have played this year I have no idea what rabbit they'll pull out of the hat, a dead rotting corpse that springs to life in the last five minutes, or the rabbit spawn of wolverines night with roger rabbits sister that tears everything in sight to shreds. I should be hoping the blues win because I have placed a few bets on them, but deep down I'm hoping the dons pull it off just because I hate Carlton. But I guess their demise can wait to next week when I bet against them.
I hope the Pies win by 40, it keeps my line multi alive. WC don't perform too well over here, nor against the pies who've got Maxwell, Davies and Shaw back. And don't want to perform like last week. Plus don't WC get a home final next week if they lose this match? If that's the case I'm not sure they have a huge incentive to win.
Blues "blue chip" midfield is far superior so by shear number of inside 50's you would feel they should run over the Dons. If the Blues can get a descent lead at qtr time of about 2-3 goals I may place some money on the dons for insurance.
I may consider the hedge during the game, but then again I read last nights game very wrong. I thought the Cats were shot after the 1st Qtr?!
Dont be mistaken the Eagles have plenty to play for. Win this and its a home prelim and basically that means a GF berth.
I think the Eagles will be over awed by the Magpie army the 19th man. It is over whelming and to not think that some of the inexperienced players will not be shell shocked is an understatement.
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DESTRUCTOR
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Blues "blue chip" midfield is far superior so by shear number of inside 50's you would feel they should run over the Dons. If the Blues can get a descent lead at qtr time of about 2-3 goals I may place some money on the dons for insurance.
I may consider the hedge during the game, but then again I read last nights game very wrong. I thought the Cats were shot after the 1st Qtr?!
Dont be mistaken the Eagles have plenty to play for. Win this and its a home prelim and basically that means a GF berth.
I think the Eagles will be over awed by the Magpie army the 19th man. It is over whelming and to not think that some of the inexperienced players will not be shell shocked is an understatement.
It will be interesting to see what effect Kerr has on the team, after being out.
I'd love to see Geelong v WC out west in a prelim. With the cats back to their decent form (although no Menzel is unfortunate) and the desperation of WC at Subi with the crowd on their side, it has the chance of being better than the GF.
And I guess the Judd and Murphy effect might take hold (will probably take hold) and win it on their own.
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Well done guys, but surely these exotics dont pay off in the long run?
But nevertheless well done!
Oh and I did have a look at Milne 1st goalscorer at $7 today.....
No bet for me.
I am considering the Pies -30.5 and Swans +30.5 line bets multi ~$3
LOL i got punished laying Smith last goal scorer,at least i hope one of you guys won it from me
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Luke ball named down forward paying $34 FGS sportingbet
- Banned
- #183
Youve got it wrong.
Cats has a prelim at the MCG no matter what happens.
The winner of the Eagles/Pies game has a home prelim final at either MCG or Perth.
Menzel will be replaced by the hairy cat - Cam Mooney - which is a super replacement IMO. No such a major loss.
Heads up - Buddy is ok !
you'd think they would put their 2nd best clearance winner in the centre square to start the match.. team lists are never accurate
True, last night Ling was named at CHF and Whitecross in the Back Pocket
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you're likely right, but chucked .5u on anyway :>
- Banned
- #187
LOL i got punished laying Smith last goal scorer,at least i hope one of you guys won it from me
Im sorry to hear that.
I just know from experience and having read a lot about punting that exotics is a surefire way of eroding your bank.
While I did consider Bock value for GC and would have considered a "fun bet" as opposed to any serious dollars. Definitely never 0.5u probably more like 0.1u
With all that said, I will have 0.1u on the 1st Goal kicker in the GF, I am hoping to have finished for the year by then and hopefully can just enjoy the game without too much riding on it.
With that said if I see the Cats at $3 against the Pies I will take it.
Hmmm those that took the Pies at $1.80 for the flag must be a little worried now!
Home & Away season all done & dusted...... Finished up like this:
ytd: 96-90-2 (+33.21u @ 51.6%)
On the the real stuff
MARGIN - CATS 1-39 (x3) winner
Great win by the Cats last night
adding x3 unitsSaturdays Finals
ATS - MAGPIES -29.5 (x2)
ATS - SWANS +17.5 (x2)
lol idiot
denitofinito
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Yep, not easy to find the value ones and like with any bet theres a bit of luck in it as well. Many bookies also seem to be blind to the fact that some players can be listed as defenders but play forward most games. All I can say is, thankyou Kyle Reimers!
Anyhow, on Pies -28.5 @ 1.92 and Swans H2H @ $3.15.
Any tab outlet
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Going to be an ugly result for me unless the Weagles can get it together without Kerr.
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- Banned
- #195
Fair enough, but apart from Milne it can be unpredictable. With that said though if your bank is big enough I guess you can ride the lows with the highs.
just out of curiosity do you have a method?
ie tonight is it Milne again!
I would have loved to have been on Bock, with that said hindsight is wonderful, from having played with the Crows, he has switched from CHB to CHF when there hasnt been a forward for him to take.
But surely there is a fair degree of luck involved.
- Banned
- #196
Yep, not easy to find the value ones and like with any bet theres a bit of luck in it as well. Many bookies also seem to be blind to the fact that some players can be listed as defenders but play forward most games. All I can say is, thankyou Kyle Reimers!
Anyhow, on Pies -28.5 @ 1.92 and Swans H2H @ $3.15.
How confident are you for the Swans?
I may back at 1-39 them and play the hedging game tonight.
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I am kind of looking forward to losing money laying Milne FGS tonight...it just feels so comfortable
denitofinito
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The recent game at ANZ and the Swans form since makes $3.15 an easy value bet. The inclusions of Kozi and Dawson are very big for the Saints but their problem in the Round 22 game was in the midfield where they got smashed. No doubt Sydney will try to replicate the same matchups/setup there.
- Banned
- #199
At the dome its a different ball game which suits the Saints more so than the Swans, games between these two have been decided by less than 20 points for at least the last 5 from memory.
Which makes the line good value IMO. I took the Swans at $1.43 +30.5 pts. for extra buffering.
If I am not mistaken Kozi and Dawson were late exclusions, this will be yet another great game to watch this weekend.
So far the games have panned out to be one sided heading into the last qtrs.
Just need the Pies to get up please.!
if the Swans kick straight they will win by 30+
3.20 is a gift from above
3.20 is a gift from above
