AFL - first week of finals

[Starlin Castro]

Gee/Coll/StK/Carl all under 39.5 @ 24.44 looking alright atm.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Gee/Coll/StK/Carl all under 39.5 @ 24.44 looking alright atm.

Thats looking sweet to me !

I think if the Saints win under 39.5 tonight you may want some cover maybe?

Blues 39.5> and just back the Dons 1-39 ???

 

[brooklyn]

I told you all it was the bigest gift at 1.27

 

[Ferris_rules]

I told you all it was the bigest gift at 1.27

lol come on, I had backed the pies h-h and was crapping myself with 5 minutes to go.

The Cats at $1.70 was a gift for a top 2 team IMO, no stress after half time really.

To the Eagles credit and my misreading they were a lot closer and had they taken their shots we both may be crying here.

To me the Cats looked primed for a flag.

 

[denitofinito]

Swans out to 3.40 on betfair a few minutes ago.. took another 2 units.

maybe everyone else knows something I dont.

 

[Ferris_rules]

St Kilda hasn't lost to anyone at the ground on a Saturday night since Round 9 2003.

 

[Donkson]

I told you all it was the bigest gift at 1.27

You're the biggest flog at 1.01.

 

[denitofinito]

Oh. I guess I only dreamt that the Swans were the first team to beat Geelong at Skilled since the dark ages.

 

[IDIG]

Good start for those who jumped on the unders. 76 pt half and looks like condition are getting worse by the second.

Just dumped 20 units on the Pies. Would never ever make a play like this but just can't see how they lose tomorrow. Also have Pies/Whobegotyou x 5U as well.

God help me if they lose

Geez that was a heck of alot of work just to break even

Although they looked pretty vulnerable today, you could tell they were missing Daisy and Reid. Reckon their next showing will be that much better esp after a week's break.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Oh. I guess I only dreamt that the Swans were the first team to beat Geelong at Skilled since the dark ages.

I dont disagree with your selection, just that there is a case for both teams.

To be fair you guys beat the Saints only a few weeks ago which counts.

The biggest problem is the ground, if this was in Sydney then I would have backed them confidently!

 

[IDIG]

Yeah agree, Sydney are great value not only with the points but to win but i've been riding the saints since they've made their run and I'm not gonna stop now.

I think them winning under 39 is more probable then them covering the line...as illogical as that probably sounds.

Taking the under 160 as well.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Oh. I guess I only dreamt that the Swans were the first team to beat Geelong at Skilled since the dark ages.

Hmmm this should make you laugh.

I have gone with the Swans at the line 24.5 1u and have also backed them to win by >39.5 pts at $13 1u

Im using the last game to guide me 33 shots to 18 suggests to me they should have won by more than 15 pts.

If they won by 5-6 goals as they should have, the betting prices would be a lot closer.

Note, unless its h-h bets I choke most times than not, lol so lay my bets to win!!!

 

[denitofinito]

I dont disagree with your selection, just that there is a case for both teams.

To be fair you guys beat the Saints only a few weeks ago which counts.

The biggest problem is the ground, if this was in Sydney then I would have backed them confidently!

Thats why there are odds. Im taking $3.15 (and $3.40 on betfair), not arguing which side of $1.92 I want to take.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Thats why there are odds. Im taking $3.15 (and $3.40 on betfair), not arguing which side of $1.92 I want to take.

Its only two games in so far, but it appears past form has played a role to some extent.

If St Nick doesnt fire and Milne plays a final like he normally does ie choke, the Saints may struggle to score.

 

[KardiniaPark]

You seriously think that Sydney beat Geelong on their merits? You are both on the gear, I can't even begin to tell you how ridiculous it is to use that as a formline in this game.

 

[twarby]

You seriously think that Sydney beat Geelong on their merits? You are both on the gear, I can't even begin to tell you how ridiculous it is to use that as a formline in this game.

how about using their last h2h match as a form line?

go throw your money away fading your own side again muggy

 

[denitofinito]

You seriously think that Sydney beat Geelong on their merits? You are both on the gear, I can't even begin to tell you how ridiculous it is to use that as a formline in this game.

How about the actual game against the Saints just 3 weeks ago? Or the last game against Brisbane, who managed to push both Collingwood and the Eagles in the last month? Or the 1 point loss to a top8 side in Essendon with a shot after the siren to win it at the same stadium they are playing in tonight? Like I said previously, yes Saints are favourites and will win this game more often than not, but Im taking the $3.15+ for value.

And to suggest the win against Geelong is something we should just ignore is just plain idiocy.

 

[Lensen]

milne $7.50 on betstar and $6 on betfair allows lovely risk free money opportunities

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

How about the actual game against the Saints just 3 weeks ago? Or the last game against Brisbane, who managed to push both Collingwood and the Eagles in the last month? Or the 1 point loss to a top8 side in Essendon with a shot after the siren to win it at the same stadium they are playing in tonight? Like I said previously, yes Saints are favourites and will win this game more often than not, but Im taking the $3.15+ for value.

And to suggest the win against Geelong is something we should just ignore is just plain idiocy.

Didn't the Pies play a young side missing a few stars and it was wet against WC.
Sydney have got a decent chance, and I bet against them, so they'll probably win.
And bloody collingwood, all you had to do was advance one freaking goal, bunch of no good hacks.

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

milne $7.50 on betstar and $6 on betfair allows lovely risk free money opportunities

I put a bet on Milne, so that probably increases the odds to about $40. Sorry.

 

[denitofinito]

0.2u Rohan FGS @ 26
0.2u Rohan MGS @ 34

Also tailed Lennys MGS bets (apart from LRT).

 

[TurboBreuster]

3U StK 1Q -4.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet)
3.5U StK 1-39 @2.15 (Centrebet)
3.5U Either U25 @1.94 (Sportingbet)
4U Total <162.5 (Centrebet)

FGS
0.3U S.Reid @21 (TAB)
0.5U Milne @7

MGS
0.2U S.Reid @21 (TAB)
0.25U Goodes @15 (TAB)


I lost a bit on the Pies today hopefully tonight is better.

 

[Barnzy]

2.5 units Sydney +19.5 @1.72

 

[Unrivaled Mach]

Had Milne or Roo first goal, guess who gets it again

 

[Ron]

lol Milne again