AFL R13

[BloodRet]

2U Sydney -26.5 @ 2.40
3U Gold Coast -12.5 @ 3.40
3U GWS -15.5 @ 6.20
1.5U North -9.5 @ 2.55
1U Ess v Melb under 156.5 @ 1.88
2U Melbourne -9.5 @ 5.20

 

[the_big_sav]

I thought there was a 2014 footy quad thread?

anyway what do you guys think of

syd vs port
wc vs gc
adel vs nth
ess vs melb

I was thinking
syd 1-48 port 1-24
wc 1-36 gc 1-48
adel 1-36 nth 1-36
ess 1-36 melb 1-24

1260 combinations

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

The bookies keep making North underdogs away and we should all keep taking it

Gold Coast great odds too. The eagles forward line looked horrible last week. No Kennedy and Darling was woeful,coming up against May who is one of the best key backs in the comp. Add the fact that they dont beat teams higher than them on the ladder and how hard the Suns will be fighting to make finals and this should be an even money game at worst

 

[Keystone agony]

Kennedys a good chance to play

 

[Young Gun #6]

Fremantle H2H vs Richmond @1.20
Collingwood over 15.5 vs Western Bulldogs @1.20
France H2H vs Honduras@1.27
Chile H2H vs Australia @1.40

Paying $2.56
no brainer for me

$2.84 on centrebet

 

[bluebob1]

2U SuperCoach Kieran Jack Over 110.5 paying $1.87 only failed twice this year
1U SuperCoach Sloan Over 108.5 paying $1.87 Consistently over this figure at home less away from home
Melb vs Ess Under 156.5 at $1.88 expecting a defensive slog

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Adelaide H2H
Hawthorn H2H
West Coast H2H
Brisbane H2H
Geelong 40+

$5.25 chuck $25

 

[banana_bus]

West Coast officially on the tank, Gold Coast should win this.

 

[laam]

West Coast officially on the tank, Gold Coast should win this.

2u melb dons < 160.5 @ 1.91
2u melb + 19.5@1.92
1u melb win @ 3.25
1.5u GC @ 2.45

Show cause notice issued to Essendon players. Should be down.

 

[banana_bus]

2u melb dons < 160.5 @ 1.91
2u melb + 19.5@1.92
1u melb win @ 3.25
1.5u GC @ 2.45

Show cause notice issued to Essendon players. Should be down.

Where did you get $2.45?

 

[laam]

Where did you get $2.45?

Pinnacle

 

[Keystone agony]

Where did you get $2.45?

Lux also had it today - not sure now

 

[TheKanga]

Feeling pretty confident on my Melbourne bets, glad i got on early.
Line has since come in to 17.5
Total Match Points now into 155.5
H2H they are now into 3.10

Jobe Watson out for the bombers.
Now all this ASADA stuff is up in the air again and could be in the players minds.
A Demons win looks likely.

 

[Sketi]

West Coast officially on the tank, Gold Coast should win this.

I realise you may not be completely serious, just wondering if this is based on anything?

 

[The_Big_Ship]

I thought there was a 2014 footy quad thread?

anyway what do you guys think of

syd vs port
wc vs gc
adel vs nth
ess vs melb

I was thinking
syd 1-48 port 1-24
wc 1-36 gc 1-48
adel 1-36 nth 1-36
ess 1-36 melb 1-24

1260 combinations

I've gone

Syd 37-60
WC 13-36
North 37-60
Ess 1-24

$15 for 93.75%

 

[banana_bus]

I realise you may not be completely serious, just wondering if this is based on anything?

2010.

 

[happy_eagle]

Hawks 1-39
Syd/Port over 171.5
@4.32

GC H2H
NM H2H
Melbourne +25.5
@7.38

No player bets interested me this week

 

[finalsweek]

i think there is some alright value floating around this week and would be interested on the forums thoughts.

GC 1-39 @ 2.90 (Sportsbet) - I'm a WCE supporter and feel like we dont have the midfield or drive to go with the GC in this game. I see this one being close with the value lying with the underdogs.

Bris 1-39 @ $2.15 (Sportsbet). Lions have looked ok the last couple of weeks. GWS get some good in's that will make them competitive and keep the margin around 20-30ish mark.

Port >77.5 pts @ 1.88 (Sportsbet). They have only scored below this once (70 pts against WCE) and they average 111 pts a game. SCG can allow high scores when you take the game on like port will although the obvious danger here is if its wet and if sydney play their contested footy style and slow things down.

Can easily cover this with 61-75 @ 3.20 (Sportsbet) and exact score 76 ($28), 77 ($29) just to be sure as i'd be very surprised if they scored below 61 pts.

 

[chrisdon16]

People are going on like the Dees are certainties. Pretty silly really. Essendon have proven that the asada investigation doesn't really hurt them on field, it did in the later part of the season last year but that was after they found out that they wouldn't play finals. IMO, if anything, this asada news will help them this week on field. Melbourne scored a grand total of 28 points last week, how can you bet on them and be confident? Waiting until Sunday avo to get on the Dons because the line will come in

 

[Wocka]

Freo couldnt even beat the Dogs by 40+ at etihad, im not very confident of them clearing that line at the G especially when there are possible showers floating around all weekend

Rich / Freo total game points -160.5 @ $1.90
Showers and wind predicted = absolute cert

 

[TheKanga]

People are going on like the Dees are certainties. Pretty silly really. Essendon have proven that the asada investigation doesn't really hurt them on field, it did in the later part of the season last year but that was after they found out that they wouldn't play finals. IMO, if anything, this asada news will help them this week on field. Melbourne scored a grand total of 28 points last week, how can you bet on them and be confident? Waiting until Sunday avo to get on the Dons because the line will come in

Well they aren't certainties however Melbourne are definite value here at $3+
Paul Roos has them playing a defensive brand of footy, they kept Collingwood to a low score all game.
They do need to kick more goals but i feel comfortable taking a punt on them with Jobe Watson out and all this ASADA stuff.
Essendon have been far from convincing this year, only falling over the line against GWS last week.

You can't say this wouldn't effect players mental preperations to some extent.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-06-13/case-to-answer

 

[Jugada]

Well they aren't certainties however Melbourne are definite value here at $3+
Paul Roos has them playing a defensive brand of footy, they kept Collingwood to a low score all game.
They do need to kick more goals but i feel comfortable taking a punt on them with Jobe Watson out and all this ASADA stuff.
Essendon have been far from convincing this year, only falling over the line against GWS last week.

You can't say this wouldn't effect players mental preperations to some extent.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-06-13/case-to-answer

If anything that article would help put the Bombers at ease seeing as its basically ASADA saying they have jack shit

 

[TheKanga]

If anything that article would help put the Bombers at ease seeing as its basically ASADA saying they have jack shit

Regardless of that stuff, i made the bets before this all came out.
i think Melbourne are a better than 3.35 chance which is the odds i got for them.
If they don't win i have 21.5 buffer for them at the line.

Essendon haven't done much this year, shouldn't be such warm favs IMO.

 

[Keystone agony]

If your betting on Melbourne get on them at 1-39. I cant see them winning by 40+ unless the Dons players all just throw in the towels before they even walk out onto the field.

I think this could work both ways - it could be the spark to re-galvanize the side and them come and play back to the walls footy. The bombers have been pretty ordinary against bottom sides the past 2 years as they walk into games just expecting it to happen without having to do much, i feel that mindset without Jobe may actually help slightly. I do however agree the demons were value and i got on appropriately.

As for tonights game. I wouldnt be going at the line i feel it could either be a big win to the hawks or a game where they do as much as they need to take the 4 points home. Carlton will put on some hard tags you would think. Whereas i dont think the hawks will really have any.

 

[Keystone agony]

Carl vs Hawks
1.5U <92.5 HT @1.88 (IAS)
4U M.Murphy more disposals then Birchall @1.72 (TAB)
2U L.Shiels over I.Smith @1.90 (Betstar)
1U S.Burgoyne <101.5 SC @1.87 (IAS)
1U M.Murphy over Gibbs DT @1.90 (IAS)
0.5U Hodge <95.5 DT @1.87 (Lux)

By no means hugely confident with tonights game. Basically i see Carlton looking to tag a few key playmakers (Lewis, Hodge, Birchall, Hill, I.Smith, Burgoyne) so i think a few of those blokes might be naturally down unless its a blowout from early on. The Burgoyne SC one is pretty good regardless of a tag. Hawthorn traditionally dont do too many hard tags, Shiels may go to go Murphy or Gibbs. Murphy is the slightly better DT scorer this year and should have him covered unless he gets a hard tag - Luke Shuey had a really good game in a poor run of form against the hawks last week as did Gaff.