AFL Round 12

[Byejune]

Centrebet:

1. ST KILDA 1.55
2. WESTERN BULLDOGS 2.42

1. ADELAIDE 2.40
2. WEST COAST 1.57

1. GOLD COAST 3.05
2. NORTH MELBOURNE 1.38

1. GEELONG 1.57
2. HAWTHORN 2.40

1. CARLTON 1.10
2. BRISBANE 6.75

1. SYDNEY 1.38
2. RICHMOND 3.05

1. FREMANTLE 1.70
2. ESSENDON 2.15

1. MELBOURNE 6.25
2. COLLINGWOOD 1.12

I'm thinking there is some value in Sydney, North and Eagles.

 

[BABYBOMBERS2007]

Massive value in GC I think they will win that game, so great odds. Also Essendon would be great value, due to the players coming back, and also with Sandilands still gone.

 

[ManWithNoName]

With Buddy still in doubt, Geelong strike me as huge overs.

 

[Byejune]

Massive value in GC I think they will win that game, so great odds. Also Essendon would be great value, due to the players coming back, and also with Sandilands still gone.

Im swinging the other way with GC. They were up last week so this could be their down week. North look like they've turned the corner after a tough opening draw and historically put away the teams they should such as GC. interested to hear other takes on this game however.

 

[Mitchemx]

Geelong and Sydney look good value for mine.

 

[BABYBOMBERS2007]

Im swinging the other way with GC. They were up last week so this could be their down week. North look like they've turned the corner after a tough opening draw and historically put away the teams they should such as GC. interested to hear other takes on this game however.

I feel that the GC havn't been playing too badly. And they nearly beat the Eagles in Perth. Ablett is on fire and while North did win, they only beat Adelaide. This time it will be on the GC.

 

[yamahamoto]

Gotta wait to see if swallow from gc will get suspended

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Geelong and Essendon for mine.

 

[Mudeo]

Im going to go with Melbourne here at $6.25, they always get themselves up for this kind of game and looks to have run into ta bit of form coming in to this one and could see some more players coming back.

 

[Lensen]

Im going to go with Melbourne here at $6.25, they always get themselves up for this kind of game and looks to have run into ta bit of form coming in to this one and could see some more players coming back.

I agree with the sentiment but you don't have an issue betting against the Pies?

I don't do it predominantly because I let emotion influence my thought process too much but have backed against them once and hated it

 

[flea29]

No Sandi No Freo - No Jobe No Bombers = Load up on the draw

 

[Mudeo]

I agree with the sentiment but you don't have an issue betting against the Pies?

I don't do it predominantly because I let emotion influence my thought process too much but have backed against them once and hated it

No not really, i am very unbiased when it comes to gambling and i believe that betting against my own team will get me some money then i will do it. But a majority of the time the bet is with Collingwood anyway . I will probably only do a couple of multis with Melbourne and just leave the game out completely in the others.

 

[Resarenco]

reckon if freo had won would have got much better value for essendon this week. Would have been good if freo were $1.45 essendon would have been good too take at the line. I think if essendon lose it won't be by more then 5 goals. I am hoping that freo are backed strongly during the week !

I don't know how much value there is in sydney not like the odds are going to give you a big return. Sydney should win but richmond could make upset.

No Swan for Collingwood, should be able to cover him I would think. Although he didn't do too much (by his standards) his positioning was very good against St Kilda thats not something a replacement player can replicate.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

No Sandi No Freo - No Jobe No Bombers = Load up on the draw

Jobe and Hurley are back this week.

Pending the team sheets, if we have a decent forward structure this week, we should win at those odds. Wouldn't put a cent on until I see some talls coming out of the lineup.

I don't mind Adelaide at value, and St Kilda and North as good priced favourites.

Took North more goals than behinds for two units at 1.85 before it got smashed into 1.53.

 

[Mudeo]

reckon if freo had won would have got much better value for essendon this week. Would have been good if freo were $1.45 essendon would have been good too take at the line. I think if essendon lose it won't be by more then 5 goals. I am hoping that freo are backed strongly during the week !

I don't know how much value there is in sydney not like the odds are going to give you a big return. Sydney should win but richmond could make upset.

No Swan for Collingwood, should be able to cover him I would think. Although he didn't do too much (by his standards) his positioning was very good against St Kilda thats not something a replacement player can replicate.

Dont forget Thomas might be out also

 

[5 Bucks]

Collingwood have cleared the line in every game this year, except the Geelong game. I expect that they will want to rectify last years results and put the Dee's to the sword early, then blitz them late in the game. I can't see how Melbourne will be able to score with a forward line such as theirs up against Collingwood's back 6. Shaw might play a bit midfield, but Buckley is an adequate replacement. Blair will come back in, so the loss of Swan doesn't hurt that much. Thomas will cop a week, so someone like Fasolo/Rounds might get a crack. Both guns.

 

[abs_of_STEELE]

No Jolly, no Swan and probably no Thomas, Beams and Johnson makes Collingwod too short IMO. Especially with Melbourne's decent record against us and with them getting back into some form last week. Although I reckon we'll win, I do think Melbourne could get up and beat us.

Like Lenny, I can't bet against the Pies, so I'll just leave this game out. But Melbourne are way overs at $6.25 IMO.

 

[Hucky]

I'm staying off the goals > behinds vs GCS bet. North haven't been particularly accurate this season and I just have a feeling this streak will come to an end this week.

 

[5 Bucks]

Oh wait, no they didn't do it in the Crows game.

 

[BrownlowBoak]

West Coast

delicious odds, getting on right now.

 

[Donkson]

Essendon are atrocious in Perth, and our rucks are in pretty average form. Pretty nice price on freo imo.

 

[twarby]

Collingwood have cleared the line in every game this year

i think ATS stats arn't that important in AFL, it is not like the books are sharp like american sports.

i think this stat is more defining, Collingwoods last 12 wins, 10 have been over 39.5


Collingwoods opponents have kicked 65 goals 77 behinds (excluding games at Etihad)
Only twice has a team kicked more goals then behinds when playing Collingwood (one tie)

Melbourne have kicked 107 goals 108 behinds in their matches outside of Etihad, they even managed 21 behinds against Gold Coast.

Melbourne more Behinds than Goals @ 2.55

 

[Sunny_]

Saw the Suns at $3.50. Would definitely jump on GC at that price.

Pushed the Eagles hard last week. Every game that North has travelled to thus far they've lost. Suns will play out of their skins at Metricon, in front of the thousands of fans.

True, North did beat Adelaide by some 40 points. But so did Brisbane the week before. North did play well, don't get me wrong. But that result I think was more Adelaide, just like the week before, playing terribly.

Travelling hasn't damaged the Suns too much if at all, given what I've heard. Everyone's pulled up well. Probably used to it as they've travelled quite a bit in the start of the year. Didn't hurt them that much. Add onto this that we're likely to swap out a few of the kids for others, and there will be at least three young fresh bodies in there. Some of our injured blokes are coming back, like Gorringe, who'll probably replace the old Fraser.

With Suns getting better every week, it's a very hard bet to ignore. All depends on what North bring to the table.

Their midfield is good no doubt. But the Suns have a great midfield of their own with Ablett, Rischitelli, Brennan, Iles and a Swallow of our own. Assuming he doesn't get pinged, of course.

Totally not bias at all.

 

[GoodesStuff]

I agree with the sentiment but you don't have an issue betting against the Pies?

I don't do it predominantly because I let emotion influence my thought process too much but have backed against them once and hated it

I usually only find value in about half of the games H2H wise each weekend, but surprisingly enough I have bet on every single game, except one involving my team this season. I have no problem betting with or against my team if the value is there.

I have learnt to bet with my head and not the heart

 

[Nothing]

Essendon are atrocious in Perth, and our rucks are in pretty average form. Pretty nice price on freo imo.

No bet for me at this stage (and probably after teams too) but I think in Perth, even with Jobe back this is going to be a very close game. Whilst Freo were beaten in the end for 3/4 they had it over Hawthorn. Meanwhile, Essendon were very disappointing against Melbourne.