AFL Round 15

[Rooster Cogburn]

Form is fleeting.

Class is permanent.

 

[Lensen]

Last 5 weeks: Pies have beaten Brisbane, Melbourne, Bulldogs and lost to Port and Sydney
Last 5 weeks: Blues have beaten Brisbane and GWS, and lost to Essendon, Hawthorn and Sydney

So both teams are beating the rubbish and losing to teams in the 8. On form, that sounds fairly 50/50 to me - the Pies losses have been worse but I think the magnitude of losses gets overrated sometimes, especially that Port one - the Pies almost gave up in the last quarter, but Port weren't six goals better all day.

The "Pies don't deserve to be top 8 by 2 games" crowd amuse me. The only side that hasn't played an expansion side as yet. One of the metrics I like to use - ranking sides by giving them points based on who they beat (ranked by ladder position) and taking off points based on who they lose to (ranked inversely by ladder position) has Collingwood comfortably inside the top 7 with a significant gap to Port, Carlton and Adelaide fighting for the 8th spot. The Pies have been stiffed by a tough draw and injury, yet unlike the Malthouse era Pies are still fighting for a spot in the 8 despite all of this

So on form (last 5 weeks) its pretty close to even, over the year the Pies have outperformed Carlton comfortably despite a horror injury toll. To say "Carlton will have it over by half time" is ludicrous IMO. It's true the Pies have been uncompetitive in losses come Q4 but apart from last week (which I'm willing to write off as a one-off until I see otherwise) they've been against hawthorn, Essendon, Sydney and Freo - sides that Carlton are nowhere near

 

[banana_bus]

I can say Carlton are in good form, I just did.

See :

It will be over at halftime

Thats your opinion.

Glad your not coaching my club, where losing close games is accepted as good form.

So two games makes form?

Won 3 in a row, including the reigning premiers. Winning form is good form. I'd take their form over Carltons any day.

 

[Rourke]

Hi all, interested to hear what you guys think about this multi, it is an 8 leg multi but extremely safe. Will it get up or is 8 legs pushing it too much?

Pies +28.5
WB win
NM +40.5
GC +40.5
WCE +32.5
Cats +32.5
STK +70.5
PTA +52.5
Multi paying $5

"I like to pay my bookie a bit extra just to feel extremely safe"
If I put it to you this way, what would you think? This is why they offer Pick Your Own Line, so people can multi up $1.20 - $1.25 options in the hope that they all come through. The truth is that you are usually paying a premium to play this market, as you can see with the lines that are close to their usual $1.91 / $1.92 lines or the ±39.5 - you are getting odds a few cents worse, or a couple of points worse. In one of those matches the roulette wheel will spin just slightly the wrong way for you, and the bookie will rake up your chips. You actually want a price of at least $8 or $9 for the combination you have there.

You are also betting against blowouts. That is the one thing I would not like to bet against, when heads start dropping. Richmond could go from a three-goal lead to seven goals in a blink of an eye late in the game against North. Ditto a few of the others. Anyway, I understand what you are trying to do but my (mathematical) opinion is that this is one of the worst types of bet to chase. Just stick with the teams you like, at the boring 50/50 line or on the nose.

Good luck!

 

[KardiniaPark]

Thats your opinion.

Glad your not coaching my club, where losing close games is accepted as good form.



Won 3 in a row, including the reigning premiers. Winning form is good form. I'd take their form over Carltons any day.

I wouldn't take the top job at your club. I would rather wash the loo's at Kardinia Park. Blues by 90.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Last 5 weeks: Pies have beaten Brisbane, Melbourne, Bulldogs and lost to Port and Sydney
Last 5 weeks: Blues have beaten Brisbane and GWS, and lost to Essendon, Hawthorn and Sydney

So both teams are beating the rubbish and losing to teams in the 8. On form, that sounds fairly 50/50 to me - the Pies losses have been worse but I think the magnitude of losses gets overrated sometimes, especially that Port one - the Pies almost gave up in the last quarter, but Port weren't six goals better all day.

The "Pies don't deserve to be top 8 by 2 games" crowd amuse me. The only side that hasn't played an expansion side as yet. One of the metrics I like to use - ranking sides by giving them points based on who they beat (ranked by ladder position) and taking off points based on who they lose to (ranked inversely by ladder position) has Collingwood comfortably inside the top 7 with a significant gap to Port, Carlton and Adelaide fighting for the 8th spot. The Pies have been stiffed by a tough draw and injury, yet unlike the Malthouse era Pies are still fighting for a spot in the 8 despite all of this

So on form (last 5 weeks) its pretty close to even, over the year the Pies have outperformed Carlton comfortably despite a horror injury toll. To say "Carlton will have it over by half time" is ludicrous IMO. It's true the Pies have been uncompetitive in losses come Q4 but apart from last week (which I'm willing to write off as a one-off until I see otherwise) they've been against hawthorn, Essendon, Sydney and Freo - sides that Carlton are nowhere near

OH GEEZ LENNY TAKE OFF THE PIES GLASSES BRO. Blues by 114.

 

[Jars#3]

I've just put 1 unit on this multi:

WC
GOLD COAST
GEELONG
WB -29.5
@$22.38

and also 1 unit on PORT +24.5 @$1.90
and 2 units WB -29.5 @ $1.90 to cover my first 2 bets

 

[Hammers_Saints]

Taking Carlton and Geelong at Sportingbet with their Power Forward special, mainly because they're the only book that I use.

Also taken the under 15.5 between Hawthorn and Geelong. Seems like a safeish bet given the recent history between the two teams.

The Demons at +60 and the Saints at +48 also stand out a little bit for me, more because Fremantle don't tend to blow teams out and will probably win by about 40 points I would say, be interesting to see how many times they've covered that number under Ross Lyon, whilst the Demons just look revitalised a little bit and I can see them losing by 30-40 points perhaps against the Swans

 

[Farmerwantsawife]

All over North + 16.5 this week.

Reasons are as follows:

Since 2011 when North have been > than 10 point dogs at Etihad they are 7-1 ATS

Since 2011 when Richmond have been > 15 Point away Fav's they are 1-3 ATS

 

[DT_35]

Put everything you own on Freo line. They will destroy us. No Riewoldt makes it even worse

 

[banana_bus]

Carlton win tomorrow.

Collingwoods team just gets weaker...

 

[AFLMulti]

Massive ins and outs!

Multi 1 Paying $7
carlton -5.5 @$1.91
WB over 15.5 @ $1.45
GC +24.5 @ $1.48
Cats vs Hawks any result under 25 @ $1.70

Multi 2 Paying $4.84
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.25
Ess 1-39 @ $2.15

 

[chrisdon16]

Everyone is forgetting Collingwood beat Geelong in a huge match on a Saturday night. They lift fir big games, imo they will lift tomorrow night and beat Carlton, who are quite average

 

[sherrin_footy]

Everyone is forgetting Collingwood beat Geelong in a huge match on a Saturday night. They lift fir big games, imo they will lift tomorrow night and beat Carlton, who are quite average

It's simply a no bet game for me. Can see it going either way.

Early DT market up; i don't mind pendlebury 106.5 +. Has done this 9 times this year, and he usually cops the carrazzo tag who isn't playing tomorrow night.


EDIT: missed the fact that carrazzo is an inclusion this weekend.

 

[banana_bus]

It's simply a no bet game for me. Can see it going either way.

Early DT market up; i don't mind pendlebury 106.5 +. Has done this 9 times this year, and he usually cops the carrazzo tag who isn't playing tomorrow night.

Carazzo is playing

 

[Davedinkum]

few high low bets anchoring the saints as the low for the round cant see them scoring very many this week.

Geelong-St Kilda $5 @ 51.00
West Coast-St Kilda $5 @ 81.00
Carlton-St Kilda $10 @ 81.00
Hawthorn-St Kilda $10 @ 30.00
Richmond-St Kilda $10 @ 19.00

all on sportsbet

 

[laam]

1u carlton - 5.5 @ 1.95
2u sidebottom <94.5 @ 1.85
has gone under this 4 of the last 6 and is up against one of the lowest DT point conceeding teams in carlton

 

[Quite Ironic]

Collingwood to win 2.30
West coast to win 2.25
Bulldogs -29.5 1.87
Freo 46.5 1.60
Freo saints under 158.5 1.87
Essendon port over 185.5 1.87
Ablett most touches 1.75

Multi roughly $96 per dollar

 

[Quite Ironic]

High low score of the week

Essendon-saints @$21

 

[laam]

1u west coast @ 2.32
1u deledio > 100.5 @ 1.85
and from KA
1u ablett < 125.5 @ 1.85
1u walker > 78.5 @ 1.87

 

[Ilike2play]

few high low bets anchoring the saints as the low for the round cant see them scoring very many this week.

Geelong-St Kilda $5 @ 51.00
West Coast-St Kilda $5 @ 81.00
Carlton-St Kilda $10 @ 81.00
Hawthorn-St Kilda $10 @ 30.00
Richmond-St Kilda $10 @ 19.00

all on sportsbet

My thinking exactly !!

Saints opened @ $3.50 ... I thought I will wait for the $4....next thing I know it's into $2.75!!! $2.15 on some books!

3 units saints low score 2.75

Also

Hi/lo

Geelong - saints $51
North - saints $67
Port - saints $151

Saints should get the low score ... But with hail/rain forecast ... Mcg games could be a danger.

 

[Davedinkum]

My thinking exactly !!

Saints opened @ $3.50 ... I thought I will wait for the $4....next thing I know it's into $2.75!!! $2.15 on some books!

3 units saints low score 2.75

Also

Hi/lo

Geelong - saints $51
North - saints $67
Port - saints $151

Saints should get the low score ... But with hail/rain forecast ... Mcg games could be a danger.

the rain/hail does worry me also but i can just see them struggling to make a decent score and the odds available for high/low doubles are really good considering there as low as $2.15 on some books.

hopefully we get some luck

 

[Ilike2play]

Yep, I didn't mind the look of Brisbane - saints but $33 was abit short for me ...

Looks as if saints have put the que in the rack...can't see them scoring too freely...

 

[chrisdon16]

No nick reiwoldt for saints. Surely Freo will smash then. There's been a 10k bet on the Freo line

 

[chrisdon16]

Collingwood
Hawthorn
Essendon

All 1-39 $12.34